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| Look at the queue to be Tory leader. No-deal Brexit is more likely than ever | Look at the queue to be Tory leader. No-deal Brexit is more likely than ever |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| When it comes to Brexit, all I can think about now are the lyrics to The Windmills of Your Mind: “Like a circle in a spiral / Like a wheel within a wheel / Never ending or beginning …” | When it comes to Brexit, all I can think about now are the lyrics to The Windmills of Your Mind: “Like a circle in a spiral / Like a wheel within a wheel / Never ending or beginning …” |
| The forthcoming Tory leadership contest is just the latest spiral. Every candidate – whether Kit Malthouse or Boris Johnson – will be outlining their cunning Baldrick-like plans to force the European Union to renegotiate the UK’s withdrawal on 31 October. In practical terms that will be nigh on impossible, in view of both the UK parliament’s timetable and the new European commission not being in place until November. What is also being ignored is that the article 50 agreement that Theresa May signed up to with the 31 October extension clearly states in clause 12: “This extension excludes any re-opening of the withdrawal agreement.” | The forthcoming Tory leadership contest is just the latest spiral. Every candidate – whether Kit Malthouse or Boris Johnson – will be outlining their cunning Baldrick-like plans to force the European Union to renegotiate the UK’s withdrawal on 31 October. In practical terms that will be nigh on impossible, in view of both the UK parliament’s timetable and the new European commission not being in place until November. What is also being ignored is that the article 50 agreement that Theresa May signed up to with the 31 October extension clearly states in clause 12: “This extension excludes any re-opening of the withdrawal agreement.” |
| Tory leadership contest odds tracker: who's up and who's down? | Tory leadership contest odds tracker: who's up and who's down? |
| The candidates will also have us believe they can magically fix the parliamentary arithmetic to garner the support required to get any of their plans through the Commons. They will somehow ensure no hard border in Northern Ireland – even though there is no technology available anywhere in the world that can facilitate this – while the World Trade Organization and the EU have no choice but to ensure the integrity of the single market. Then we come to the biggest lie of all, being spread by the Brexit party and Nigel Farage: that the UK can have a “clean Brexit”. This is patently untrue, and Farage – by no means a foolish man – must know this to be the case. The conclusion must therefore be that he has bigger ambitions than merely getting Britain out of the EU. | The candidates will also have us believe they can magically fix the parliamentary arithmetic to garner the support required to get any of their plans through the Commons. They will somehow ensure no hard border in Northern Ireland – even though there is no technology available anywhere in the world that can facilitate this – while the World Trade Organization and the EU have no choice but to ensure the integrity of the single market. Then we come to the biggest lie of all, being spread by the Brexit party and Nigel Farage: that the UK can have a “clean Brexit”. This is patently untrue, and Farage – by no means a foolish man – must know this to be the case. The conclusion must therefore be that he has bigger ambitions than merely getting Britain out of the EU. |
| Farage and his supporters see Brexit as the cloak to disguise their real ambitions to change our country, our culture and our future. He has aligned himself to people at the heart of the populist movements in the US and across Europe, which are set on putting a torch to the old order and its institutions, infrastructure and politics. Out of that chaos he wants to see nothing less than a survivalist economy, a world of rich asset-strippers, rights and equality opposers and climate deniers. | Farage and his supporters see Brexit as the cloak to disguise their real ambitions to change our country, our culture and our future. He has aligned himself to people at the heart of the populist movements in the US and across Europe, which are set on putting a torch to the old order and its institutions, infrastructure and politics. Out of that chaos he wants to see nothing less than a survivalist economy, a world of rich asset-strippers, rights and equality opposers and climate deniers. |
| Yet instead of calling out Farage, the Tory candidates tremble before him. I know from my own campaigning that taking a stand is never easy, and often dangerous, but out-Faraging Farage is a pitiful and craven course of action when the Tory leadership candidates should be focusing on the issues that affect real people’s lives. They should challenge Farage and expose his toxic views on the NHS, schools, rough sleepers, the knife crime epidemic, the pension poverty time bomb, inward investment, foreign policy and the climate crisis. | Yet instead of calling out Farage, the Tory candidates tremble before him. I know from my own campaigning that taking a stand is never easy, and often dangerous, but out-Faraging Farage is a pitiful and craven course of action when the Tory leadership candidates should be focusing on the issues that affect real people’s lives. They should challenge Farage and expose his toxic views on the NHS, schools, rough sleepers, the knife crime epidemic, the pension poverty time bomb, inward investment, foreign policy and the climate crisis. |
| The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. | The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. |
| The former universities minister is calling for a 'final say on the Brexit deal' as the only way to break the parliamentary deadlock. Gyimah is the only candidate offering a second referendum on Brexit, saying 'There is a wide range of candidates out there but there is a very narrow set of views on Brexit being discussed'. | The former universities minister is calling for a 'final say on the Brexit deal' as the only way to break the parliamentary deadlock. Gyimah is the only candidate offering a second referendum on Brexit, saying 'There is a wide range of candidates out there but there is a very narrow set of views on Brexit being discussed'. |
| The health secretary remains a relative outsider, but the longer the race goes on, the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being, albeit a particularly energetic one. A concerted effort would probably require an image consultant. | The health secretary remains a relative outsider, but the longer the race goes on, the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being, albeit a particularly energetic one. A concerted effort would probably require an image consultant. |
| The former immigration minister and chief whip was behind the controversial 'go-home' vans when working under Theresa May at the Home Office. He resigned as immigration minister in 2014after it emerged he was employing a cleaner who did not have permission to work in the UK. He later served as David Cameron’s chief whip. But he has not served in Theresa May’s government and has, therefore, sought to cast himself as the candidate who offers 'fresh thinking. | The former immigration minister and chief whip was behind the controversial 'go-home' vans when working under Theresa May at the Home Office. He resigned as immigration minister in 2014after it emerged he was employing a cleaner who did not have permission to work in the UK. He later served as David Cameron’s chief whip. But he has not served in Theresa May’s government and has, therefore, sought to cast himself as the candidate who offers 'fresh thinking. |
| Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. Hunt has been backed by Liam Fox. | Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. Hunt has been backed by Liam Fox. |
| The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time. | The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time. |
| The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate. | The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate. |
| The former House of Commons leader, who left Theresa May as the last candidate standing when she pulled out of the previous leadership race in 2016, has decided to have another tilt at the top job, saying she has the “experience and confidence” to “lead this country into a brighter future”. But even with her staunch Brexiter tendencies, she would be seen as an outsider. | The former House of Commons leader, who left Theresa May as the last candidate standing when she pulled out of the previous leadership race in 2016, has decided to have another tilt at the top job, saying she has the “experience and confidence” to “lead this country into a brighter future”. But even with her staunch Brexiter tendencies, she would be seen as an outsider. |
| The housing minister is credited as the convener of both Conservative leavers and remainers to develop a compromise on May’s withdrawal agreement. He said there was a “yearning for change”. The 52-year-old is a former deputy mayor of London and entered the Commons in 2015 when David Cameron’s Conservatives won a majority. His name was given to the “Malthouse compromise” – a proposal drawn up by backbenchers from leave and remain wings of the Tory party, which would have implemented May’s Brexit deal with the backstop replaced by alternative arrangements. | The housing minister is credited as the convener of both Conservative leavers and remainers to develop a compromise on May’s withdrawal agreement. He said there was a “yearning for change”. The 52-year-old is a former deputy mayor of London and entered the Commons in 2015 when David Cameron’s Conservatives won a majority. His name was given to the “Malthouse compromise” – a proposal drawn up by backbenchers from leave and remain wings of the Tory party, which would have implemented May’s Brexit deal with the backstop replaced by alternative arrangements. |
| The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police. | The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police. |
| Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed. | Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed. |
| The cabinet’s most recent arrival – Mordaunt’s promotion to defence led to Stewart becoming international development secretary – certainly has the necessary ambition and self-belief, plus a privileged if unorthodox backstory covering Eton, Oxford, a senior role in postwar Iraq and a bestselling book about walking across Afghanistan. He remains an outsider, not least because of his remain tendencies and slightly 2010 view of compassionate Conservatism. He's become a social media darling and been endorsed by Ken Clarke, but his reputation as 'Florence of Belgravia' may hinder him. | The cabinet’s most recent arrival – Mordaunt’s promotion to defence led to Stewart becoming international development secretary – certainly has the necessary ambition and self-belief, plus a privileged if unorthodox backstory covering Eton, Oxford, a senior role in postwar Iraq and a bestselling book about walking across Afghanistan. He remains an outsider, not least because of his remain tendencies and slightly 2010 view of compassionate Conservatism. He's become a social media darling and been endorsed by Ken Clarke, but his reputation as 'Florence of Belgravia' may hinder him. |
| Sir Graham Brady, Penny Mordaunt and James Brokenshire are yet to declare their intentions. Liz Truss and Amber Rudd have ruled themselves out. | Sir Graham Brady, Penny Mordaunt and James Brokenshire are yet to declare their intentions. Liz Truss and Amber Rudd have ruled themselves out. |
| Among other senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, Chris Grayling and Philip Hammond. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. | Among other senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, Chris Grayling and Philip Hammond. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. |
| James Cleverly withdrew from the contest. | |
| Farage’s victory mean the Tories will be led by a Brexiteer, not a compromiser | Martha Gill | Farage’s victory mean the Tories will be led by a Brexiteer, not a compromiser | Martha Gill |
| The very fact Boris Johnson is the favourite to succeed May says everything about how vacuous and morally bankrupt our politics has become. Imagine any other job, with a six-figure salary, where a candidate who was sacked twice for lying – first as a journalist from the Times and then as a politician by Michael Howard – would have made it to the final shortlist. In May’s speech last week she pointed out that compromise is not a dirty word and that the Tory party should be decent and moderate. Given his promises about Brexit – out on 31 October, deal or no deal – Johnson’s bid for the job is incompatible with all such notions. | The very fact Boris Johnson is the favourite to succeed May says everything about how vacuous and morally bankrupt our politics has become. Imagine any other job, with a six-figure salary, where a candidate who was sacked twice for lying – first as a journalist from the Times and then as a politician by Michael Howard – would have made it to the final shortlist. In May’s speech last week she pointed out that compromise is not a dirty word and that the Tory party should be decent and moderate. Given his promises about Brexit – out on 31 October, deal or no deal – Johnson’s bid for the job is incompatible with all such notions. |
| Vince Cable has talked about forming a grand alliance of remain-supporting parties to oppose Brexit, and if he manages to succeed in that objective before he steps down as leader of the Liberal Democrats, then he will have done us all a great service. But the grim reality is that with so many unscrupulous politicians so close to taking the leadership of the Conservative party, and the office of prime minister, a no-deal Brexit seems more likely than ever before. | Vince Cable has talked about forming a grand alliance of remain-supporting parties to oppose Brexit, and if he manages to succeed in that objective before he steps down as leader of the Liberal Democrats, then he will have done us all a great service. But the grim reality is that with so many unscrupulous politicians so close to taking the leadership of the Conservative party, and the office of prime minister, a no-deal Brexit seems more likely than ever before. |
| They say with addictions such as alcoholism that it’s necessary to hit rock bottom before recovery is possible, and maybe that will be true of Brexit too. A Johnson premiership – with Farage at home and Donald Trump abroad as his allies – will represent rock bottom for all of us. Let no one be in any doubt about how very long recovery would take, and how painful it would be. | They say with addictions such as alcoholism that it’s necessary to hit rock bottom before recovery is possible, and maybe that will be true of Brexit too. A Johnson premiership – with Farage at home and Donald Trump abroad as his allies – will represent rock bottom for all of us. Let no one be in any doubt about how very long recovery would take, and how painful it would be. |
| • Gina Miller is a transparency and civil rights campaigner and the founder of Remain United | • Gina Miller is a transparency and civil rights campaigner and the founder of Remain United |
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