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Can no-deal Brexit be stopped? Can no-deal Brexit be stopped?
(3 days later)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said the UK will leave the EU on 31 October "do or die" - even if it means walking away without a deal.Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said the UK will leave the EU on 31 October "do or die" - even if it means walking away without a deal.
Many people oppose a no-deal Brexit, with MPs planning to take action in Parliament and others taking action in the courts. But can no deal be stopped now that the government has decided to suspend Parliament? Many people oppose a no-deal Brexit, with MPs planning action in Parliament and others taking to the courts. But can no deal be stopped now that the government has decided to suspend Parliament?
What is no deal? How could the PM make no deal happen?
A no-deal Brexit means the UK would immediately leave the EU with no agreement in place about the "divorce" process - or how they separate.A no-deal Brexit means the UK would immediately leave the EU with no agreement in place about the "divorce" process - or how they separate.
Overnight, the UK would leave the single market and customs union - arrangements designed to help trade between EU members. There are three ways to avoid this happening on 31 October: MPs could pass a deal, postpone the date of exit, or cancel Brexit altogether.
Many politicians and businesses say this would damage the economy. But unless a new plan is agreed, Mr Johnson does not need to do anything for a no-deal Brexit to happen.
Others say the risks are exaggerated.
Former prime minister Theresa May couldn't persuade her own MPs to support her agreement with the EU, which would have avoided no deal. That's why she resigned.
Unless Mr Johnson can get his own - as yet non-existent - Brexit deal passed, the UK will face the prospect of leaving without an agreement at the end of October.
The alternative would be to extend the deadline again - or cancel Brexit altogether.
How could the prime minister make no deal happen?
In theory, unless a new plan is agreed, Mr Johnson does not need to do anything for a no-deal Brexit to happen.
This is because the UK's departure on 31 October is already written into law. He could just run the clock down.This is because the UK's departure on 31 October is already written into law. He could just run the clock down.
But it's not as simple as that. However, it's not as simple as that.
Most MPs in the UK Parliament are against leaving without a deal. And they could try to stop it from happening.Most MPs in the UK Parliament are against leaving without a deal. And they could try to stop it from happening.
What can MPs do to stop no deal?What can MPs do to stop no deal?
Despite having little time, MPs still have options for trying to block a no-deal Brexit.Despite having little time, MPs still have options for trying to block a no-deal Brexit.
Legislation emerged as the preferred course of action, following a cross-party meeting of MPs opposed to a no-deal Brexit. Passing a new law that would force the PM to request an extension has emerged as the preferred course of action.
What happens in Parliament is usually up to the government of the day, so MPs would have to find a way to wrest control of the timetable. What happens in Parliament is usually up to the government, so MPs would have to find a way to wrest control of the timetable.
Emergency debateEmergency debate
You might hear the phrase "SO24" over the next few weeks. This refers to Standing Order 24, the rule that allows MPs to ask for a debate on a "specific and important matter that should have urgent consideration". You might hear about an "SO24" this week. This refers to Standing Order 24, the rule that allows MPs to ask for an emergency debate.
These debates usually have no power to force action. But it would be possible to give them more teeth if House of Commons Speaker John Bercow allows amendments. These debates usually have no power to force action. But they could be given more teeth if House of Commons Speaker John Bercow allows amendments.
For example, MPs could try to take control of the timetable for a day, to try and force through a whole piece of legislation. MPs could use one to take control of the timetable for a day, to allow time to pass a law to force Mr Johnson into action.
The new law could simply force the PM to request an extension to the Brexit deadline.
Theoretically, there is enough time for this.Theoretically, there is enough time for this.
Any new law has to pass through all stages of both Houses of Parliament. This would usually take weeks, but it could be done in as little as three days. This happened in April when Yvette Cooper managed to rush through a piece of legislation to force an extension. It would usually take weeks for legislation to pass through both Houses of Parliament. But in April Yvette Cooper took three days to rush through a piece of legislation to force an extension.
But even if MPs managed to force it through in three days, they would probably have to allow for a day to secure and another day to hold the emergency debate. With as few as four sitting days before parliament is prorogued, this could be tight. With as few as four sitting days before parliament is prorogued, time will be tight to hold the emergency debateand pass a new law.
One hurdle could come in the House of Lords. Although opponents to no deal have a large majority, peers wanting to block a piece of legislation could talk and talk until there is no time left.One hurdle could come in the House of Lords. Although opponents to no deal have a large majority, peers wanting to block a piece of legislation could talk and talk until there is no time left.
Vote of no confidenceVote of no confidence
Seen by some as the "nuclear option", MPs have the option to vote out the government.Seen by some as the "nuclear option", MPs have the option to vote out the government.
This could happen as early as 4 September, the day after Westminster returns from its summer break. If a majority of MPs vote against the government, a formal process kicks off under the Fixed Term Parliament Act:
If a majority of MPs vote against the government, a formal process kicks off under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act: If this were to happen before Parliament is suspended, MPs would have much fewer than 14 days to try and form an alternative government. Once Parliament is prorogued, time would be up and we would slide towards a general election.
After holding a vote of no confidence, MPs would only have a few sitting days to form an alternative government and prove it has majority support in the House of Commons, rather than the full 14 days.
It is unclear what would happen if the PM lost a no confidence vote and Parliament was suspended before the 14-day period was up.
But technically it would leave no more time to form an alternative government and we would slide towards an automatic election.
Pass a deal!Pass a deal!
There are only two options that will rule out no deal altogether, rather than postpone the deadline: pass a deal, or cancel Brexit altogether. It is still possible for MPs to approve a deal before exit day. This is the course of action ministers say they prefer.
It is still possible for MPs to approve a new deal before exit day. This is the course of action ministers say they prefer.
The PM could return from the EU summit in mid-October with a brand new deal, propose it to MPs and get it passed in time for the 31 October deadline.The PM could return from the EU summit in mid-October with a brand new deal, propose it to MPs and get it passed in time for the 31 October deadline.
But the main hurdle here would be whether he has enough time to pass the legislation that is needed to implement the deal - a much more complicated process than the stop-no-deal law. But the main hurdle here - aside from persuading a majority of MPs to back him - would be whether he has enough time to pass the legislation that is needed to implement the deal.
Use the courtsUse the courts
It isn't just Parliament which could get in the way of the PM's prorogation plans - a number of legal challenges are making their way through the courts.It isn't just Parliament which could get in the way of the PM's prorogation plans - a number of legal challenges are making their way through the courts.
In Scotland, a judge has refused to order a temporary halt to plans to shut the UK Parliament. But a full hearing of the case will be heard on Tuesday 3 September.In Scotland, a judge has refused to order a temporary halt to plans to shut the UK Parliament. But a full hearing of the case will be heard on Tuesday 3 September.
The action is being taken by a cross-party group of 75 politicians, who want the court to rule that prorogation would be illegal and unconstitutional.The action is being taken by a cross-party group of 75 politicians, who want the court to rule that prorogation would be illegal and unconstitutional.
Cases are also being started in Belfast and London, both seeking injunctions to block the closure of Parliament.Cases are also being started in Belfast and London, both seeking injunctions to block the closure of Parliament.
Northern Irish campaigner Raymond McCord is waiting to hear the result of his challenge.Northern Irish campaigner Raymond McCord is waiting to hear the result of his challenge.
And Sir John Major is joining forces with campaigner Gina Miller. The former Conservative prime minister believes Parliament is being closed to prevent MPs from opposing a no-deal Brexit.And Sir John Major is joining forces with campaigner Gina Miller. The former Conservative prime minister believes Parliament is being closed to prevent MPs from opposing a no-deal Brexit.
If any injunction to block prorogation is granted, the government would immediately appeal and all three cases could end up in the Supreme Court. If any injunction to block prorogation is granted, the government would immediately appeal and the cases could end up in the Supreme Court.