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UK government borrowing misses targets; historic German bond sale - business live UK government borrowing misses targets; historic German bond sale - business live
(32 minutes later)
My colleague Severin Carrell has spotted that Scotland ran a deficit seven times higher than the UK as a whole last year, despite again cutting its overspend on public services.
He writes:
The latest Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) figures showed there was a record gap of nearly £2,000 per person between how much was spent on public services and debt repayment, and total tax revenues for 2018/19.
Scotland’s notional deficit stood at £12.6bn or 7% of GDP, including North Sea oil revenues, compared to the UK’s total £23.5bn deficit – which includes Scotland’s figure, equivalent to 1.1% of UK GDP.
Total state spending in Scotland was £1,661 higher per person than the UK average at £75.3bn, while tax receipts were £307 less per head than the UK average, at £62.7bn. Excluding oil revenues, the deficit exceeded £14bn, equal to 22.5% of tax revenues.
More here:
Scotland's 2018 deficit higher than UK as a whole last year
US retailer Target has lifted the New York stock market, by beating profit and revenue forecasts.
Target grew earnings by 17% in the last quarter, as its in-store pickup and same-day shipping services proved popular.
It also raised its outlook for the rest of the year, suggesting it’s confident that US consumers will keep spending.
Ding ding! Wall Street has opened higher:
Dow Jones: up 217 points or 0.84% at 26,179
S&P 500: up 24 points or 0.83% at 2,924
Nasdaq: up 73 points or 0.93% at 8,022.
Back in Germany, a slowdown in machinery exports has reinforced fears that Europe’s largest economy is heading into recession.
Exports of German-made equipment shrank by 1.8% in the second quarter of 2019, according to the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association (VDMA), having risen by 3.8% in January-March.
VDMA chief economist Ralph Wiechers blamed problems overseas, saying:
“The uncertainty triggered by the trade conflict between the United States and China in particular, as well as the lack of prospects for an agreement on Brexit, are hurting our export-focused sector.”
VDMA also reports that machinery exports to China have barely risen since the start of 2019.
If this weakness continued, then it could drag Germany’s GDP down in the current quarter - following a 0.1% contraction in Q2.
Just in: President Trump is launching yet another attack on America’s central bank for not cutting interest rates harder and faster.Just in: President Trump is launching yet another attack on America’s central bank for not cutting interest rates harder and faster.
In a flurry of tweets, Trump begins by claims the media are trying to talk the US economy into a recession:In a flurry of tweets, Trump begins by claims the media are trying to talk the US economy into a recession:
The Fake News LameStream Media is doing everything possible the “create” a U.S. recession, even though the numbers & facts are working totally in the opposite direction. They would be willing to hurt many people, but that doesn’t matter to them. Our Economy is sooo strong, sorry!The Fake News LameStream Media is doing everything possible the “create” a U.S. recession, even though the numbers & facts are working totally in the opposite direction. They would be willing to hurt many people, but that doesn’t matter to them. Our Economy is sooo strong, sorry!
Trump may be referring to coverage of the inverted US bond yield curve last week. I think the media were right to cover it, and to mention that it typically precedes a recession (although it quickly de-inverted....).Trump may be referring to coverage of the inverted US bond yield curve last week. I think the media were right to cover it, and to mention that it typically precedes a recession (although it quickly de-inverted....).
Trump then compared Powell to a dodgy putter - quite an insult from the Golfer In Chief - for allowing US interest rates to rise too high.Trump then compared Powell to a dodgy putter - quite an insult from the Golfer In Chief - for allowing US interest rates to rise too high.
Doing great with China and other Trade Deals. The only problem we have is Jay Powell and the Fed. He’s like a golfer who can’t putt, has no touch. Big U.S. growth if he does the right thing, BIG CUT - but don’t count on him! So far he has called it wrong, and only let us down....Doing great with China and other Trade Deals. The only problem we have is Jay Powell and the Fed. He’s like a golfer who can’t putt, has no touch. Big U.S. growth if he does the right thing, BIG CUT - but don’t count on him! So far he has called it wrong, and only let us down....
.....We are competing with many countries that have a far lower interest rate, and we should be lower than them. Yesterday, “highest Dollar in U.S.History.” No inflation. Wake up Federal Reserve. Such growth potential, almost like never before!.....We are competing with many countries that have a far lower interest rate, and we should be lower than them. Yesterday, “highest Dollar in U.S.History.” No inflation. Wake up Federal Reserve. Such growth potential, almost like never before!
Technically, the German 30-year bond auction is a failure, as Berlin sold less than half of the debt on offer.Technically, the German 30-year bond auction is a failure, as Berlin sold less than half of the debt on offer.
On the other hand, if investors are paying for the privilege of lending to you, it’s hardly a complete flop.On the other hand, if investors are paying for the privilege of lending to you, it’s hardly a complete flop.
Germany only got 40% or so of the EUR2bn it wanted from the 30y zero-coupon bunds. Still, EUR824mn at -0.11% for 30 years.Germany only got 40% or so of the EUR2bn it wanted from the 30y zero-coupon bunds. Still, EUR824mn at -0.11% for 30 years.
Back in the financial markets, Germany has broken new ground by selling 30-year government debt with a zero coupon.Back in the financial markets, Germany has broken new ground by selling 30-year government debt with a zero coupon.
That means Berlin would not pay any interest on the bonds, but simply return the money in 2049.That means Berlin would not pay any interest on the bonds, but simply return the money in 2049.
The bonds aren’t linked to inflation either, so anyone buying the bonds would surely suffer a real loss when the three decades was up. Germany has sold 10-year bund with a zero coupon before, but never a 30-year one.The bonds aren’t linked to inflation either, so anyone buying the bonds would surely suffer a real loss when the three decades was up. Germany has sold 10-year bund with a zero coupon before, but never a 30-year one.
However, the historic sale is something of a flop -- German only raised €824m, having offered €2bn of new bonds to the market.However, the historic sale is something of a flop -- German only raised €824m, having offered €2bn of new bonds to the market.
But investors who took part in the auction actually paid MORE than the face value of the bonds. That means they will actually offer a yield of -0.11%, confirming that buyers will lose money on the trade. Unless they can sell the bunds onto someone else at an even higher price.But investors who took part in the auction actually paid MORE than the face value of the bonds. That means they will actually offer a yield of -0.11%, confirming that buyers will lose money on the trade. Unless they can sell the bunds onto someone else at an even higher price.
Here’s some snap reaction:Here’s some snap reaction:
The happy investors in the new German 30-year benchmark will lose more than 3% of their investment for sure (in nominal terms), if they hold the bond until maturity. This is the crazy world we live in.The happy investors in the new German 30-year benchmark will lose more than 3% of their investment for sure (in nominal terms), if they hold the bond until maturity. This is the crazy world we live in.
#Germany #Bund - Ok not surprising given the -0.11% yield on offer - but Germany manages to sell just EUR 824 Mln of the EUR 2.0 bln of the new 0% 2050 Bund on offer #fail. So much for #negative #yields being the new normal?#Germany #Bund - Ok not surprising given the -0.11% yield on offer - but Germany manages to sell just EUR 824 Mln of the EUR 2.0 bln of the new 0% 2050 Bund on offer #fail. So much for #negative #yields being the new normal?
Germany sold the world's first 30-year bond offering a zero coupon, with an effective yield of -0.11%. Demand was pretty weak. @bloombergtv @queenofchartz pic.twitter.com/0rlq6LZyBxGermany sold the world's first 30-year bond offering a zero coupon, with an effective yield of -0.11%. Demand was pretty weak. @bloombergtv @queenofchartz pic.twitter.com/0rlq6LZyBx
A clarification to that earlier post: Ryanair’s Irish pilots have been blocked from striking later this week.A clarification to that earlier post: Ryanair’s Irish pilots have been blocked from striking later this week.
The budget airline is now seeking an injunction at the high court in London to prevent UK-based pilots walking out. Sorry for the confusion....The budget airline is now seeking an injunction at the high court in London to prevent UK-based pilots walking out. Sorry for the confusion....
Ryanair wins high court injunction to stop Irish pilot strikesRyanair wins high court injunction to stop Irish pilot strikes
Today’s borrowing figures are the first released since Sajid Javid replaced Philip Hammond at the Treasury nearly a month ago.Today’s borrowing figures are the first released since Sajid Javid replaced Philip Hammond at the Treasury nearly a month ago.
They’re a reminder of the challenge facing Britain’s finance ministry, which already didn’t expect to balance the books until the mid-2020s.They’re a reminder of the challenge facing Britain’s finance ministry, which already didn’t expect to balance the books until the mid-2020s.
The increase in this deficit this year is a “headache” for the new chancellor, says Sky News’s John-Paul Ford Rojas, as he tries to balance the books and help deliver Boris Johnson’s spending pledges.The increase in this deficit this year is a “headache” for the new chancellor, says Sky News’s John-Paul Ford Rojas, as he tries to balance the books and help deliver Boris Johnson’s spending pledges.
Worse than expected public finances deliver headache for new chancellor https://t.co/UXdk7IaQLcWorse than expected public finances deliver headache for new chancellor https://t.co/UXdk7IaQLc
Two important pieces of transport news:Two important pieces of transport news:
1) The government has appointed a major critic of its High Speed 2 rail project to help lead a review into the project.1) The government has appointed a major critic of its High Speed 2 rail project to help lead a review into the project.
Lord Berkeley, a railway expert and Labour peer, has been made deputy chair of the review - which will decide whether the scheme linking London to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds should go ahead.Lord Berkeley, a railway expert and Labour peer, has been made deputy chair of the review - which will decide whether the scheme linking London to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds should go ahead.
He has repeatedly challenged the Department for Transport’s cost figures and warned that the budgets were spiralling out of control -- which perhaps gives a hint about how the probe will pan out.He has repeatedly challenged the Department for Transport’s cost figures and warned that the budgets were spiralling out of control -- which perhaps gives a hint about how the probe will pan out.
More here:More here:
HS2 in doubt: review into whether rail project should proceedHS2 in doubt: review into whether rail project should proceed
2) The Dublin High Court has blocked a planned strike by Irish-based Ryanair pilots, which had been scheduled for Thursday and Friday .2) The Dublin High Court has blocked a planned strike by Irish-based Ryanair pilots, which had been scheduled for Thursday and Friday .
The budget airline says flights from Ireland will now operate as normal - which must be a relief to passengers heading off on their summer hols.The budget airline says flights from Ireland will now operate as normal - which must be a relief to passengers heading off on their summer hols.
Update for Irish customers: pic.twitter.com/X1vaXKDNVsUpdate for Irish customers: pic.twitter.com/X1vaXKDNVs
On the other hand, Britain’s widening deficit might undermine the PM’s efforts to boost spending.On the other hand, Britain’s widening deficit might undermine the PM’s efforts to boost spending.
Richard Hughes, Macroeconomic Policy Unit Research Associate at the Resolution Foundation, explains:Richard Hughes, Macroeconomic Policy Unit Research Associate at the Resolution Foundation, explains:
“Borrowing was £6 billion higher in the first four months of this year than the same period last year. The Office for Budget Responsibility had been expecting a 29 per cent increase in borrowing for this year as a whole, but we’re seeing borrowing up twice that so far, at 60 per cent.“Borrowing was £6 billion higher in the first four months of this year than the same period last year. The Office for Budget Responsibility had been expecting a 29 per cent increase in borrowing for this year as a whole, but we’re seeing borrowing up twice that so far, at 60 per cent.
Crucially these higher borrowing figures come before recent decisions by the new government to turn on the spending taps, and complicate the government’s intention to increase public spending in the September spending round if they also want to remain committed to the current fiscal rules.”Crucially these higher borrowing figures come before recent decisions by the new government to turn on the spending taps, and complicate the government’s intention to increase public spending in the September spending round if they also want to remain committed to the current fiscal rules.”
Boris Johnson’s rash of spending pledges - including more police and more NHS funding - will also blow a hole in the deficit this year.Boris Johnson’s rash of spending pledges - including more police and more NHS funding - will also blow a hole in the deficit this year.
Josie Dent, Senior Economist at the CEBR think tank, explains:Josie Dent, Senior Economist at the CEBR think tank, explains:
Boris Johnson has announced several expansionary fiscal policies since becoming Prime Minister, which are likely to increase government borrowing and expenditure in the future.Boris Johnson has announced several expansionary fiscal policies since becoming Prime Minister, which are likely to increase government borrowing and expenditure in the future.
Among the increased spending measures, he has promised more money for no-deal preparations and funding for an additional 10,000 prison places. He has also pledged to speed up the implementation of full fibre broadband and increase school funding. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has also shown support for plans to raise the higher income tax band to £80,000, in addition speaking favourably about a cut to the rate of tax on company profits.Among the increased spending measures, he has promised more money for no-deal preparations and funding for an additional 10,000 prison places. He has also pledged to speed up the implementation of full fibre broadband and increase school funding. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister has also shown support for plans to raise the higher income tax band to £80,000, in addition speaking favourably about a cut to the rate of tax on company profits.
With the new Prime Minister’s apparent shift in focus away from balancing the government’s budgets, we are likely to see rising levels of borrowing in the coming months. Furthermore, with a recession possibly on the way, government intervention may be needed to stimulate the economy, which would add to the size of the deficit.With the new Prime Minister’s apparent shift in focus away from balancing the government’s budgets, we are likely to see rising levels of borrowing in the coming months. Furthermore, with a recession possibly on the way, government intervention may be needed to stimulate the economy, which would add to the size of the deficit.
Today’s public finances also show how the government has failed to eliminate the budget deficit, in the decade since the financial crisis began.Today’s public finances also show how the government has failed to eliminate the budget deficit, in the decade since the financial crisis began.
As you can see, this year’s deficit was already expected to exceed last year’s, even before July’s unexpectedly small surplus (and a disappointingly large deficit in June).As you can see, this year’s deficit was already expected to exceed last year’s, even before July’s unexpectedly small surplus (and a disappointingly large deficit in June).
John McDonnell MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, isn’t impressed by the jump in borrowing this financial year, saying:
“With the Conservatives only interested in forcing through a No Deal Brexit, nine years of economic mismanagement have left our public services in a terrible state ahead of the Spending Review.
“Instead of borrowing yet more money to fund their failed programme of tax cuts, the priority has to be reversing the damage done to schools and social care, and stopping the rollout of Universal Credit which is causing so much hardship.
“Labour in government will deliver the radical transformation to our economy that is desperately needed to boost living standards and eliminate in-work poverty.”
Economist Rupert Seggins has spotted that higher public sector wages have helped push the deficit higher this year.
That follows the abolition of the notorious 1% pay cap on public sector pay increases last year.
1. UK public sector borrowing at £16bn in the financial year to July. Up £6bn on the same period last year. Mainly down to a £5.6bn increase in central gov't receipts being outweighed by a £10.8 bn increase in central gov't spending. Local gov't borrowing up £0.8bn. pic.twitter.com/K56LlziyUH
2. Biggest drag on central government revenues has been less money coming to the Treasury from the Asset Purchase Facility. Coffers have been most boosted by growth in NICs & interest & dividends received. pic.twitter.com/cgWkgqR2OR
3. On the spending side of the coin, it's current spend, staff costs & investment that have been the biggest boosts this year, with the only major downward contribution to overall growth coming from public sector pensions (net of contributions). pic.twitter.com/4BwiUxGvcM
Thomas Pugh of Capital Economics agrees that July’s disappointingly small budget surplus means the UK may miss its deficit target for the 2019-20 financial year.
Total borrowing for the current financial year was expected to rise to £29.3bn, up from £23.6bn in 2018-19.
But....the UK has already borrowed £16bn since the start of the financial year in April, up from £10bn at this stage a year ago. So it’s firmly on track to blow past that target.
Pugh explains:
It seems likely that government borrowing will continue to overshoot the OBRs forecast over the next few months as the government ramps up spending on preparations for a no deal Brexit.
What’s more, a change in the accounting treatment of student loans in September will raise the deficit by more than £10bn a year. However, we doubt this will prevent the Chancellor from loosening fiscal policy in a one-year spending review in September or in an autumn budget, either before or after Brexit. Just how far borrowing rises will depend on whether there is a deal or a no deal, or a delay.
Economist Sean Richards points out that government spending has increased compared with a year ago:
Okay the takeaway from the UK Public Finances data is that the spending taps are now open with an extra 6.5% being spent by the UK government compared to July last year. #GDP
So far this fiscal year the UK government has spent some 5.3% more than in 2018 #FiscalBoost #GDP
Sumita Shah, regulatory policy manager at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, warns that Brexit uncertainty is not helping:
“As we lead up to the 31 October Brexit deadline, it’s important that the government gets to grips with the bigger, long-term picture, which is maintaining the sustainability of our public finances.
he government has a responsibility to instil confidence back into the UK economy, which will be essential if the economy is going to be in the best shape to face the challenges and opportunities of life outside the European Union.”
Just in: the UK is on track to MISS its borrowing targets this financial year.
The latest public finances, just released, show that Britain posted a smaller budget surplus than hoped in July.
The gap between spending and borrowing came in at £1.3bn in July, down from a £3.5bn surplus a year ago.
Economists had expected the national coffers to swell by £2.7bn, as July is a big month for self-assessment tax payments.
The decline is due to government spending rising faster than government income.
The Office for National Statistics reports that spending rose by 4.2% compared with July 2018, including a 2.6% rise in benefit spending.
Total income, though, actually dropped by 0.5%, partly due to a 1.1% drop in corporation tax. That outpaced a 1.5% increase in income tax and capital gains receipts, and a 2.6% jump in VAT payments.
There’s another factor -- the Bank of England transferred less money to the government than a year ago, via the profits from its asset purchase scheme.
This means Britain has borrowed £16bn so far this financial year, £6bn more than a year ago.
More to follow...
European stock markets have opened higher today, despite Donald Trump’s latest attack on China.
Italy’s FTSE MIB is the top performer, gaining 1.5%, on hopes that a new coalition government can be formed.
Connor Campbell of SpreadEx reckons investors are betting on central bank stimulus measures - especially as the White House isn’t easing back on the trade war.
This firmly green open came despite Trump doubling down on his trade war rhetoric. The President appeared to dismiss the risk of a recession, shifting to an ideological stance in the face of economic warning signs, stating the need to ‘take China on’ makes the battle worthwhile and that whether the outcome is good or bad in the short term is ‘irrelevant’.
That kind of talk puts even more pressure on the Fed to safeguard the American economy, meaning investors are going to be on high alert for hints that the central bank is prepared to cut rates against relatively soon when they pour over July’s meeting minutes this evening.
Over in Rome, the battle to end the latest Italian political crisis has begun.
Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, has begun talks with political parties to see if a new government can be formed. Yesterday, prime minister Giuseppe Conte resigned following the collapse of his populist coalition, after the far-right League party walked out.
Italian PM resigns with attack on 'opportunist' Salvini
League leader Matteo Salvini has hope to trigger new elections, but it’s possible that a new coalition could be patched together. One possibility is that the centre-left Democratic Party replaces the League, in an alliance with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement.
That would leave push the League into opposition and give Italy a more centrist, pro-European government.
German finance minister Olaf Scholz predicted this morning that a new government will be created, avoiding new elections this autumn.
Reuters has the details:
Asked if he feared a new euro zone crisis, Scholz told German television:
“No, there is no sign of that.” Agreement had been reached with Italy on developing the European stability criteria even with the current government in Rome, he said. “And it looks as if a new government, perhaps with a different composition, will emerge.”
#Germany's Scholz sees no sign #Italy will trigger euro crisis https://t.co/siVODHWAAm
Overnight, JP Morgan warned that the trade war will hit American families this autumn.
It believes that the next swathe of tariffs, starting in September, will push the total cost towards $1,000 per year per household:
JPMORGAN: “ .. the average estimated annual tariff cost per household is expected to increase from ~$600 to ~$1,000 with Phase III implementation at a rate of 10%, which would offset majority of the benefit the US households received from the Tax Act (est. ~$1,300).” pic.twitter.com/6L7Q63c39a
It also warned that a swathe of US companies will be hit, including Apple, Harley-Davidson, Nike and Caterpillar.
2. JPMorgan has a list of US companies most exposed to the Sept 1 tariffs .. pic.twitter.com/0d0P5ZyjGX
3. ... and the US companies exposed to the (delayed) Dec 15 tariffs: pic.twitter.com/pg6UGNZluo
Trump’s criticism of China helped to dampen the mood across Asia-Pacific markets today.
China’s CSI 300 index dipped slightly, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed almost 1% (its mining companies would suffer from a global slowdown). Japan’s Nikkei slipped by 0.3%.
Han Tan, market analyst at FXTM, says slowdown fears are weighing on investors:
Asian stocks are mixed, with markets reluctant to get ahead of themselves in hoping for a near-term resolution to the US-China conflict. The intensifying concerns over the state of the global economy have only soured the outlooks for open and trade-dependent Asian economies, with such fears feeding into the performances of risk assets.
Until there is a meaningful breakthrough in the US-China impasse, it would be a big ask for Asian assets to carve out substantial gains over the near-term. A more pronounced slowdown in the global economy will only reflect negatively in the currencies across Asia and emerging-markets.
With relations with China stretched, the US is hoping to make headway with Japan over trade.
Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s economy minister, is due in Washington later today to discuss a “mini” bilateral trade agreement with Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative.
The aim is to agree a partial deal, in which Japan would give additional access to its agricultural market in return for America lowering some tariffs on Japanese manufactured goods.
The FT says such a deal could bring “some relief from the commercial tensions battering the world economy”. Japan, though, is worried that the US will impose tariffs on its auto exports, so may be reluctant to agree a partial trade deal until this issue is also settled. More here.
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Hopes of an early resolution to the trade war raging between Washington and Beijing have taken a knock, after President Donald Trump declared it was vital to “take China on”, regardless of the short term economic damage.
With fears of a US recession on the rise, Trump claimed that such concerns were “irrelevant”, given the need to challenge the Chinese administration.
He told reporters gathered in the Oval Office that:
“It’s about time, whether it’s good for our country or bad for our country short term.....The fact is somebody had to take China on.”
President Trump says his trade war with China will help in the longterm despite recession fears: "I am doing this whether it's good or bad ... somebody had to take China on" https://t.co/LKwvtZnflM pic.twitter.com/gTbcHUYr26
The tit-for-tat tariffs imposed on hundreds of billions of dollars of imports between the two countries have spooked the financial markets and slowed global growth, economists believe.
They have also caused real pain to groups such as American farmers, through lost sales, and risk pushing up prices for consumers.
Trump. though, insists that it’s all worth it:
“This is something that had to be done. The only difference is I am doing it,” he said.
“China has been ripping this country off for 25 years, for longer than that and it’s about time whether it’s good for our country or bad for our country short term. Long term it’s imperative that somebody does this.”
President @realDonaldTrump: "We have to solve the problem with China." pic.twitter.com/ElNZ6SY7hc
The president also revealed he is considering a temporary payroll tax cut to help workers, implying the White House is seriously worried that the economy is turning sour ahead of next year’s elections.
But Trump also denied that a recession is looming (while also pointing the blame finger at central bankers at the Federal Reserve):
“We’re very far from a recession...In fact, if the Fed would do its job, I think we’d have a tremendous spurt of growth, a tremendous spurt.”
Trump’s comments were overshadowed by his remarkable decision to scrap his visit to Denmark, because prime minister Mette Frederiksen rebuffed his proposal to buy Greenland.
....The Prime Minister was able to save a great deal of expense and effort for both the United States and Denmark by being so direct. I thank her for that and look forward to rescheduling sometime in the future!
But, such pugnacious comments about China suggest the trade dispute could rumble on for months. Unless there’s a breakthrough, the US will impose fresh tariffs on September and December, doubtless triggering a retaliation.
Also coming up today
The latest UK public finances will show whether Britain is on track to hit its fiscal targets this year -- although a no-deal Brexit would blow them out of the water.
Germany will attempt to sell a new 30-year bond that doesn’t offer buyers any interest payments, in a test of the strength of the bond market rally.
And after the European markets close, the US Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting where it voted to cut interest rates.
The agenda
9.30am BST: UK public finances for July (expected to show a surplus of £2.7bn)
10.30am BST: Germany auctions 30-year bund with a zero coupon
3pm BST: US home sales for July
7pm BST: Minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting