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Trade war fears swirl as Trump vows to 'take China on' – business live UK public finances off track after July surplus disappoints - business live
(32 minutes later)
Thomas Pugh of Capital Economics agrees that July’s disappointingly small budget surplus means the UK may miss its deficit target for the 2019-20 financial year.
Total borrowing for the current financial year was expected to rise to £29.3bn, up from £23.6bn in 2018-19. But as the UK has already borrowed an extra £6bn since April (the start of the year), it’s firmly on track to blow past that target.
Pugh explains
It seems likely that government borrowing will continue to overshoot the OBRs forecast over the next few months as the government ramps up spending on preparations for a no deal Brexit.
it. What’s more, a change in the accounting treatment of student loans in September will raise the deficit by more than £10bn a year. However, we doubt this will prevent the Chancellor from loosening fiscal policy in a one-year spending review in September or in an autumn budget, either before or after Brexit. Just how far borrowing rises will depend on whether there is a deal or a no deal, or a delay.
Economist Sean Richards points out that government spending has increased compared with a year ago:
Okay the takeaway from the UK Public Finances data is that the spending taps are now open with an extra 6.5% being spent by the UK government compared to July last year. #GDP
So far this fiscal year the UK government has spent some 5.3% more than in 2018 #FiscalBoost #GDP
Sumita Shah, regulatory policy manager at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, warns that Brexit uncertainty is not helping:
“As we lead up to the 31 October Brexit deadline, it’s important that the government gets to grips with the bigger, long-term picture, which is maintaining the sustainability of our public finances.
he government has a responsibility to instil confidence back into the UK economy, which will be essential if the economy is going to be in the best shape to face the challenges and opportunities of life outside the European Union.”
Just in: the UK is on track to MISS its borrowing targets this financial year.
The latest public finances, just released, show that Britain posted a smaller budget surplus than hoped in July.
The gap between spending and borrowing came in at £1.3bn in July, down from a £3.5bn surplus a year ago.
Economists had expected the national coffers to swell by £2.7bn, as July is a big month for self-assessment tax payments.
The decline is due to government spending rising faster than government income.
The Office for National Statistics reports that spending rose by 4.2% compared with July 2018, including a 2.6% rise in benefit spending.
Total income, though, actually dropped by 0.5%, partly due to a 1.1% drop in corporation tax. That outpaced a 1.5% increase in income tax and capital gains receipts, and a 2.6% jump in VAT payments.
There’s another factor -- the Bank of England transferred less money to the government than a year ago, via the profits from its asset purchase scheme.
This means Britain has borrowed £16bn so far this financial year, £6bn more than a year ago.
More to follow...
European stock markets have opened higher today, despite Donald Trump’s latest attack on China.European stock markets have opened higher today, despite Donald Trump’s latest attack on China.
Italy’s FTSE MIB is the top performer, gaining 1.5%, on hopes that a new coalition government can be formed.Italy’s FTSE MIB is the top performer, gaining 1.5%, on hopes that a new coalition government can be formed.
Connor Campbell of SpreadEx reckons investors are betting on central bank stimulus measures - especially as the White House isn’t easing back on the trade war.Connor Campbell of SpreadEx reckons investors are betting on central bank stimulus measures - especially as the White House isn’t easing back on the trade war.
This firmly green open came despite Trump doubling down on his trade war rhetoric. The President appeared to dismiss the risk of a recession, shifting to an ideological stance in the face of economic warning signs, stating the need to ‘take China on’ makes the battle worthwhile and that whether the outcome is good or bad in the short term is ‘irrelevant’.This firmly green open came despite Trump doubling down on his trade war rhetoric. The President appeared to dismiss the risk of a recession, shifting to an ideological stance in the face of economic warning signs, stating the need to ‘take China on’ makes the battle worthwhile and that whether the outcome is good or bad in the short term is ‘irrelevant’.
That kind of talk puts even more pressure on the Fed to safeguard the American economy, meaning investors are going to be on high alert for hints that the central bank is prepared to cut rates against relatively soon when they pour over July’s meeting minutes this evening.That kind of talk puts even more pressure on the Fed to safeguard the American economy, meaning investors are going to be on high alert for hints that the central bank is prepared to cut rates against relatively soon when they pour over July’s meeting minutes this evening.
Over in Rome, the battle to end the latest Italian political crisis has begun.Over in Rome, the battle to end the latest Italian political crisis has begun.
Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, has begun talks with political parties to see if a new government can be formed. Yesterday, prime minister Giuseppe Conte resigned following the collapse of his populist coalition, after the far-right League party walked out.Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, has begun talks with political parties to see if a new government can be formed. Yesterday, prime minister Giuseppe Conte resigned following the collapse of his populist coalition, after the far-right League party walked out.
Italian PM resigns with attack on 'opportunist' SalviniItalian PM resigns with attack on 'opportunist' Salvini
League leader Matteo Salvini has hope to trigger new elections, but it’s possible that a new coalition could be patched together. One possibility is that the centre-left Democratic Party replaces the League, in an alliance with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement.League leader Matteo Salvini has hope to trigger new elections, but it’s possible that a new coalition could be patched together. One possibility is that the centre-left Democratic Party replaces the League, in an alliance with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement.
That would leave push the League into opposition and give Italy a more centrist, pro-European government.That would leave push the League into opposition and give Italy a more centrist, pro-European government.
German finance minister Olaf Scholz predicted this morning that a new government will be created, avoiding new elections this autumn.German finance minister Olaf Scholz predicted this morning that a new government will be created, avoiding new elections this autumn.
Reuters has the details:Reuters has the details:
Asked if he feared a new euro zone crisis, Scholz told German television:Asked if he feared a new euro zone crisis, Scholz told German television:
“No, there is no sign of that.” Agreement had been reached with Italy on developing the European stability criteria even with the current government in Rome, he said. “And it looks as if a new government, perhaps with a different composition, will emerge.”“No, there is no sign of that.” Agreement had been reached with Italy on developing the European stability criteria even with the current government in Rome, he said. “And it looks as if a new government, perhaps with a different composition, will emerge.”
#Germany's Scholz sees no sign #Italy will trigger euro crisis https://t.co/siVODHWAAm#Germany's Scholz sees no sign #Italy will trigger euro crisis https://t.co/siVODHWAAm
Overnight, JP Morgan warned that the trade war will hit American families this autumn.Overnight, JP Morgan warned that the trade war will hit American families this autumn.
It believes that the next swathe of tariffs, starting in September, will push the total cost towards $1,000 per year per household:It believes that the next swathe of tariffs, starting in September, will push the total cost towards $1,000 per year per household:
JPMORGAN: “ .. the average estimated annual tariff cost per household is expected to increase from ~$600 to ~$1,000 with Phase III implementation at a rate of 10%, which would offset majority of the benefit the US households received from the Tax Act (est. ~$1,300).” pic.twitter.com/6L7Q63c39aJPMORGAN: “ .. the average estimated annual tariff cost per household is expected to increase from ~$600 to ~$1,000 with Phase III implementation at a rate of 10%, which would offset majority of the benefit the US households received from the Tax Act (est. ~$1,300).” pic.twitter.com/6L7Q63c39a
It also warned that a swathe of US companies will be hit, including Apple, Harley-Davidson, Nike and Caterpillar.It also warned that a swathe of US companies will be hit, including Apple, Harley-Davidson, Nike and Caterpillar.
2. JPMorgan has a list of US companies most exposed to the Sept 1 tariffs .. pic.twitter.com/0d0P5ZyjGX2. JPMorgan has a list of US companies most exposed to the Sept 1 tariffs .. pic.twitter.com/0d0P5ZyjGX
3. ... and the US companies exposed to the (delayed) Dec 15 tariffs: pic.twitter.com/pg6UGNZluo3. ... and the US companies exposed to the (delayed) Dec 15 tariffs: pic.twitter.com/pg6UGNZluo
Trump’s criticism of China helped to dampen the mood across Asia-Pacific markets today.Trump’s criticism of China helped to dampen the mood across Asia-Pacific markets today.
China’s CSI 300 index dipped slightly, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed almost 1% (its mining companies would suffer from a global slowdown). Japan’s Nikkei slipped by 0.3%.China’s CSI 300 index dipped slightly, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed almost 1% (its mining companies would suffer from a global slowdown). Japan’s Nikkei slipped by 0.3%.
Han Tan, market analyst at FXTM, says slowdown fears are weighing on investors:Han Tan, market analyst at FXTM, says slowdown fears are weighing on investors:
Asian stocks are mixed, with markets reluctant to get ahead of themselves in hoping for a near-term resolution to the US-China conflict. The intensifying concerns over the state of the global economy have only soured the outlooks for open and trade-dependent Asian economies, with such fears feeding into the performances of risk assets.Asian stocks are mixed, with markets reluctant to get ahead of themselves in hoping for a near-term resolution to the US-China conflict. The intensifying concerns over the state of the global economy have only soured the outlooks for open and trade-dependent Asian economies, with such fears feeding into the performances of risk assets.
Until there is a meaningful breakthrough in the US-China impasse, it would be a big ask for Asian assets to carve out substantial gains over the near-term. A more pronounced slowdown in the global economy will only reflect negatively in the currencies across Asia and emerging-markets.Until there is a meaningful breakthrough in the US-China impasse, it would be a big ask for Asian assets to carve out substantial gains over the near-term. A more pronounced slowdown in the global economy will only reflect negatively in the currencies across Asia and emerging-markets.
With relations with China stretched, the US is hoping to make headway with Japan over trade.With relations with China stretched, the US is hoping to make headway with Japan over trade.
Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s economy minister, is due in Washington later today to discuss a “mini” bilateral trade agreement with Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative.Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s economy minister, is due in Washington later today to discuss a “mini” bilateral trade agreement with Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative.
The aim is to agree a partial deal, in which Japan would give additional access to its agricultural market in return for America lowering some tariffs on Japanese manufactured goods.The aim is to agree a partial deal, in which Japan would give additional access to its agricultural market in return for America lowering some tariffs on Japanese manufactured goods.
The FT says such a deal could bring “some relief from the commercial tensions battering the world economy”. Japan, though, is worried that the US will impose tariffs on its auto exports, so may be reluctant to agree a partial trade deal until this issue is also settled. More here.The FT says such a deal could bring “some relief from the commercial tensions battering the world economy”. Japan, though, is worried that the US will impose tariffs on its auto exports, so may be reluctant to agree a partial trade deal until this issue is also settled. More here.
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Hopes of an early resolution to the trade war raging between Washington and Beijing have taken a knock, after President Donald Trump declared it was vital to “take China on”, regardless of the short term economic damage.Hopes of an early resolution to the trade war raging between Washington and Beijing have taken a knock, after President Donald Trump declared it was vital to “take China on”, regardless of the short term economic damage.
With fears of a US recession on the rise, Trump claimed that such concerns were “irrelevant”, given the need to challenge the Chinese administration.With fears of a US recession on the rise, Trump claimed that such concerns were “irrelevant”, given the need to challenge the Chinese administration.
He told reporters gathered in the Oval Office that:He told reporters gathered in the Oval Office that:
“It’s about time, whether it’s good for our country or bad for our country short term.....The fact is somebody had to take China on.”“It’s about time, whether it’s good for our country or bad for our country short term.....The fact is somebody had to take China on.”
President Trump says his trade war with China will help in the longterm despite recession fears: "I am doing this whether it's good or bad ... somebody had to take China on" https://t.co/LKwvtZnflM pic.twitter.com/gTbcHUYr26President Trump says his trade war with China will help in the longterm despite recession fears: "I am doing this whether it's good or bad ... somebody had to take China on" https://t.co/LKwvtZnflM pic.twitter.com/gTbcHUYr26
The tit-for-tat tariffs imposed on hundreds of billions of dollars of imports between the two countries have spooked the financial markets and slowed global growth, economists believe.The tit-for-tat tariffs imposed on hundreds of billions of dollars of imports between the two countries have spooked the financial markets and slowed global growth, economists believe.
They have also caused real pain to groups such as American farmers, through lost sales, and risk pushing up prices for consumers.They have also caused real pain to groups such as American farmers, through lost sales, and risk pushing up prices for consumers.
Trump. though, insists that it’s all worth it:Trump. though, insists that it’s all worth it:
“This is something that had to be done. The only difference is I am doing it,” he said.“This is something that had to be done. The only difference is I am doing it,” he said.
“China has been ripping this country off for 25 years, for longer than that and it’s about time whether it’s good for our country or bad for our country short term. Long term it’s imperative that somebody does this.”“China has been ripping this country off for 25 years, for longer than that and it’s about time whether it’s good for our country or bad for our country short term. Long term it’s imperative that somebody does this.”
President @realDonaldTrump: "We have to solve the problem with China." pic.twitter.com/ElNZ6SY7hcPresident @realDonaldTrump: "We have to solve the problem with China." pic.twitter.com/ElNZ6SY7hc
The president also revealed he is considering a temporary payroll tax cut to help workers, implying the White House is seriously worried that the economy is turning sour ahead of next year’s elections.The president also revealed he is considering a temporary payroll tax cut to help workers, implying the White House is seriously worried that the economy is turning sour ahead of next year’s elections.
But Trump also denied that a recession is looming (while also pointing the blame finger at central bankers at the Federal Reserve):But Trump also denied that a recession is looming (while also pointing the blame finger at central bankers at the Federal Reserve):
“We’re very far from a recession...In fact, if the Fed would do its job, I think we’d have a tremendous spurt of growth, a tremendous spurt.”“We’re very far from a recession...In fact, if the Fed would do its job, I think we’d have a tremendous spurt of growth, a tremendous spurt.”
Trump’s comments were overshadowed by his remarkable decision to scrap his visit to Denmark, because prime minister Mette Frederiksen rebuffed his proposal to buy Greenland.Trump’s comments were overshadowed by his remarkable decision to scrap his visit to Denmark, because prime minister Mette Frederiksen rebuffed his proposal to buy Greenland.
....The Prime Minister was able to save a great deal of expense and effort for both the United States and Denmark by being so direct. I thank her for that and look forward to rescheduling sometime in the future!....The Prime Minister was able to save a great deal of expense and effort for both the United States and Denmark by being so direct. I thank her for that and look forward to rescheduling sometime in the future!
But, such pugnacious comments about China suggest the trade dispute could rumble on for months. Unless there’s a breakthrough, the US will impose fresh tariffs on September and December, doubtless triggering a retaliation.But, such pugnacious comments about China suggest the trade dispute could rumble on for months. Unless there’s a breakthrough, the US will impose fresh tariffs on September and December, doubtless triggering a retaliation.
Also coming up todayAlso coming up today
The latest UK public finances will show whether Britain is on track to hit its fiscal targets this year -- although a no-deal Brexit would blow them out of the water.The latest UK public finances will show whether Britain is on track to hit its fiscal targets this year -- although a no-deal Brexit would blow them out of the water.
Germany will attempt to sell a new 30-year bond that doesn’t offer buyers any interest payments, in a test of the strength of the bond market rally.Germany will attempt to sell a new 30-year bond that doesn’t offer buyers any interest payments, in a test of the strength of the bond market rally.
And after the European markets close, the US Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting where it voted to cut interest rates.And after the European markets close, the US Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting where it voted to cut interest rates.
The agendaThe agenda
9.30am BST: UK public finances for July (expected to show a surplus of £2.7bn)9.30am BST: UK public finances for July (expected to show a surplus of £2.7bn)
10.30am BST: Germany auctions 30-year bund with a zero coupon10.30am BST: Germany auctions 30-year bund with a zero coupon
3pm BST: US home sales for July3pm BST: US home sales for July
7pm BST: Minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting7pm BST: Minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting