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| Hurricane Dorian Updates: Storm Gains Strength on Path to Strike Florida | |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Forecasters expect Hurricane Dorian to arrive somewhere along the east coast of Florida on Monday afternoon. But exactly where is still a mystery, with some prediction models suggesting a direct blow to Central Florida and others projecting the storm to veer north or south. | Forecasters expect Hurricane Dorian to arrive somewhere along the east coast of Florida on Monday afternoon. But exactly where is still a mystery, with some prediction models suggesting a direct blow to Central Florida and others projecting the storm to veer north or south. |
| “It all depends on this dance of the pressure systems around the storm,” said Hugh Willoughby, a meteorologist at Florida International University in Miami. | “It all depends on this dance of the pressure systems around the storm,” said Hugh Willoughby, a meteorologist at Florida International University in Miami. |
| If the forecast for its strength holds, Dorian would be the first hurricane of Category 4 or higher to make landfall on Florida’s east coast since 1992, when Andrew ripped through the Miami area as a Category 5 storm, causing widespread damage. | If the forecast for its strength holds, Dorian would be the first hurricane of Category 4 or higher to make landfall on Florida’s east coast since 1992, when Andrew ripped through the Miami area as a Category 5 storm, causing widespread damage. |
| “The biggest concern will be Dorian’s slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 5 a.m. Friday briefing. | |
| The Florida National Guard has activated 2,500 members, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced on Thursday night. He added that the state had ordered a million gallons of water and sent 860,000 bottles of water to counties for distribution. | The Florida National Guard has activated 2,500 members, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced on Thursday night. He added that the state had ordered a million gallons of water and sent 860,000 bottles of water to counties for distribution. |
| The governor had previously extended an emergency declaration to all of the state’s 67 counties. | The governor had previously extended an emergency declaration to all of the state’s 67 counties. |
| A strike by Dorian in a densely populated region could be especially dangerous, said W. Craig Fugate, a former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. | A strike by Dorian in a densely populated region could be especially dangerous, said W. Craig Fugate, a former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. |
| He rattled off a list of Florida cities — Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Jacksonville — where, he said, storm surge could be deadly “once you start measuring in feet, not inches.” | He rattled off a list of Florida cities — Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Jacksonville — where, he said, storm surge could be deadly “once you start measuring in feet, not inches.” |
| “That’s not saying it won’t be devastating wherever it hits the shore,” said Mr. Fugate, who is also a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “But the reality is: What drives the response is people.” | “That’s not saying it won’t be devastating wherever it hits the shore,” said Mr. Fugate, who is also a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “But the reality is: What drives the response is people.” |
| Orlando is inland in Central Florida, but if the storm dumps rain for many hours, the city’s lakes could overflow. In North Florida, the St. Johns and Matanzas Rivers have flooded Jacksonville and St. Augustine even when storms have not directly hit the cities, Mr. Fugate noted. | Orlando is inland in Central Florida, but if the storm dumps rain for many hours, the city’s lakes could overflow. In North Florida, the St. Johns and Matanzas Rivers have flooded Jacksonville and St. Augustine even when storms have not directly hit the cities, Mr. Fugate noted. |
| [Here are some tips on how to prepare for an evacuation order.] | |
| He also laid out other concerns. | He also laid out other concerns. |
| Expensive installations along the flourishing Space Coast, around Cape Canaveral, could be affected. Fuel shipments could be delayed by any disruptions at major hubs for cargo such as Jaxport in Jacksonville or Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale. | Expensive installations along the flourishing Space Coast, around Cape Canaveral, could be affected. Fuel shipments could be delayed by any disruptions at major hubs for cargo such as Jaxport in Jacksonville or Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale. |
| Powerful waves in Lake Okeechobee, Florida’s largest inland lake, could test its aging dike. Pounding rains might force the release of polluted waters into fragile estuaries to the east and west, which could lead to toxic algae blooms. | Powerful waves in Lake Okeechobee, Florida’s largest inland lake, could test its aging dike. Pounding rains might force the release of polluted waters into fragile estuaries to the east and west, which could lead to toxic algae blooms. |
| “What we’ve always encouraged in Florida is catastrophic disaster planning,” Mr. Fugate said. | “What we’ve always encouraged in Florida is catastrophic disaster planning,” Mr. Fugate said. |
| Powerful winds are what define a hurricane, so they are named and classified based on how hard their winds are blowing. To qualify as a hurricane, a storm must have sustained winds of 74 miles an hour or more. | Powerful winds are what define a hurricane, so they are named and classified based on how hard their winds are blowing. To qualify as a hurricane, a storm must have sustained winds of 74 miles an hour or more. |
| All hurricanes are dangerous, but some pack more punch than others. So meteorologists try to quantify each storm’s destructive power by using the Saffir-Simpson scale, placing it in one of five categories based on sustained wind speed. | All hurricanes are dangerous, but some pack more punch than others. So meteorologists try to quantify each storm’s destructive power by using the Saffir-Simpson scale, placing it in one of five categories based on sustained wind speed. |
| The National Hurricane Center said on Thursday that Dorian was expected to hit Florida as a “major” hurricane — in Category 3 or possibly Category 4. | The National Hurricane Center said on Thursday that Dorian was expected to hit Florida as a “major” hurricane — in Category 3 or possibly Category 4. |
| Category 3 hurricanes, with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h., can take roofs off well-constructed houses and knock out electric and water systems for days or weeks. Category 4 hurricanes do catastrophic damage, felling most trees and power poles and wrecking some buildings with their wind speeds of 130 to 156 m.p.h. | Category 3 hurricanes, with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h., can take roofs off well-constructed houses and knock out electric and water systems for days or weeks. Category 4 hurricanes do catastrophic damage, felling most trees and power poles and wrecking some buildings with their wind speeds of 130 to 156 m.p.h. |
| [For details on how Hurricane Dorian is affecting flights, cruises and Disney World, read our story here.] | |
| But some experts say the scale is a limited way to assess a storm’s destructive potential because it focuses only on the power of its winds, and not on the surge of seawater that a storm flings ashore, or on the flooding caused by its torrential rains. Most hurricane fatalities and property damage tend to be caused by those factors. | But some experts say the scale is a limited way to assess a storm’s destructive potential because it focuses only on the power of its winds, and not on the surge of seawater that a storm flings ashore, or on the flooding caused by its torrential rains. Most hurricane fatalities and property damage tend to be caused by those factors. |
| Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it slammed into the Louisiana coast on Aug. 29, 2005. But it was the storm surge that overwhelmed New Orleans’s flood walls and levees and devastated the city. | Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it slammed into the Louisiana coast on Aug. 29, 2005. But it was the storm surge that overwhelmed New Orleans’s flood walls and levees and devastated the city. |
| [Read more about how hurricanes are categorized.] | [Read more about how hurricanes are categorized.] |
| Reporting was contributed by Adeel Hassan, Patrick J. Lyons, Mitch Smith and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs. | Reporting was contributed by Adeel Hassan, Patrick J. Lyons, Mitch Smith and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs. |