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| Hurricane Dorian Updates: Storm Could Hit Florida at Category 4 Strength | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Forecasters expect Hurricane Dorian to arrive somewhere along the east coast of Florida early on Tuesday morning. But exactly where is still a mystery, with some prediction models suggesting a direct blow to Central Florida and others projecting the storm to veer north or south. | Forecasters expect Hurricane Dorian to arrive somewhere along the east coast of Florida early on Tuesday morning. But exactly where is still a mystery, with some prediction models suggesting a direct blow to Central Florida and others projecting the storm to veer north or south. |
| “It all depends on this dance of the pressure systems around the storm,” said Hugh Willoughby, a meteorologist at Florida International University in Miami. | “It all depends on this dance of the pressure systems around the storm,” said Hugh Willoughby, a meteorologist at Florida International University in Miami. |
| If the forecast for its strength holds, Dorian would be the first hurricane of Category 4 or higher to make landfall on Florida’s east coast since 1992, when Andrew ripped through the Miami area as a Category 5 storm, causing widespread damage. | If the forecast for its strength holds, Dorian would be the first hurricane of Category 4 or higher to make landfall on Florida’s east coast since 1992, when Andrew ripped through the Miami area as a Category 5 storm, causing widespread damage. |
| On Friday morning, Dorian was over the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 m.p.h — one mile per hour shy of being a Category 3 — and was expected to strengthen throughout the day. | On Friday morning, Dorian was over the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 2 storm with winds of 110 m.p.h — one mile per hour shy of being a Category 3 — and was expected to strengthen throughout the day. |
| “The biggest concern will be Dorian’s slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall,” the National Hurricane Center said . | “The biggest concern will be Dorian’s slow motion when it is near Florida, placing some areas of the state at an increasing risk of a prolonged, drawn-out event of strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall,” the National Hurricane Center said . |
| Also on Friday, President Trump approved an emergency declaration for Florida, allowing for increased federal support and resources to flow to the state. | Also on Friday, President Trump approved an emergency declaration for Florida, allowing for increased federal support and resources to flow to the state. |
| Gov. Ron DeSantis said that 2,500 National Guard troops had been activated, a force that could grow to 4,000 by Saturday night. He added that the state had ordered a million gallons of water and sent 860,000 bottles of water to counties for distribution. | Gov. Ron DeSantis said that 2,500 National Guard troops had been activated, a force that could grow to 4,000 by Saturday night. He added that the state had ordered a million gallons of water and sent 860,000 bottles of water to counties for distribution. |
| Some gas stations have been running out of fuel, Mr. DeSantis said at a news conference on Friday morning. The state has waived regulations and set up police escorts to get more gas to stations, including from nearby states, the governor said. | Some gas stations have been running out of fuel, Mr. DeSantis said at a news conference on Friday morning. The state has waived regulations and set up police escorts to get more gas to stations, including from nearby states, the governor said. |
| State authorities were also visiting and calling about 120 nursing homes that have not reported whether they have working generators. | State authorities were also visiting and calling about 120 nursing homes that have not reported whether they have working generators. |
| A strike by Dorian in a densely populated region could be especially dangerous, said W. Craig Fugate, a former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. | A strike by Dorian in a densely populated region could be especially dangerous, said W. Craig Fugate, a former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency. |
| He rattled off a list of Florida cities — Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Jacksonville — where, he said, storm surge could be deadly “once you start measuring in feet, not inches.” | He rattled off a list of Florida cities — Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, Jacksonville — where, he said, storm surge could be deadly “once you start measuring in feet, not inches.” |
| “That’s not saying it won’t be devastating wherever it hits the shore,” said Mr. Fugate, who is also a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “But the reality is: What drives the response is people.” | “That’s not saying it won’t be devastating wherever it hits the shore,” said Mr. Fugate, who is also a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “But the reality is: What drives the response is people.” |
| Orlando is inland in Central Florida, but if the storm dumps rain for many hours, the city’s lakes could overflow. In North Florida, the St. Johns and Matanzas Rivers have flooded Jacksonville and St. Augustine even when storms have not directly hit the cities, Mr. Fugate noted. | Orlando is inland in Central Florida, but if the storm dumps rain for many hours, the city’s lakes could overflow. In North Florida, the St. Johns and Matanzas Rivers have flooded Jacksonville and St. Augustine even when storms have not directly hit the cities, Mr. Fugate noted. |
| [Here are some tips on how to prepare for an evacuation order.] | [Here are some tips on how to prepare for an evacuation order.] |
| He also laid out other concerns. | He also laid out other concerns. |
| Expensive installations along the flourishing Space Coast, around Cape Canaveral, could be affected. Fuel shipments could be delayed by any disruptions at major hubs for cargo such as Jaxport in Jacksonville or Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale. | Expensive installations along the flourishing Space Coast, around Cape Canaveral, could be affected. Fuel shipments could be delayed by any disruptions at major hubs for cargo such as Jaxport in Jacksonville or Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale. |
| Powerful waves in Lake Okeechobee, Florida’s largest inland lake, could test its aging dike. Pounding rains might force the release of polluted waters into fragile estuaries to the east and west, which could lead to toxic algae blooms. | Powerful waves in Lake Okeechobee, Florida’s largest inland lake, could test its aging dike. Pounding rains might force the release of polluted waters into fragile estuaries to the east and west, which could lead to toxic algae blooms. |
| “What we’ve always encouraged in Florida is catastrophic disaster planning,” Mr. Fugate said. | “What we’ve always encouraged in Florida is catastrophic disaster planning,” Mr. Fugate said. |
| Forecasters have warned of the risk of “life-threatening” storm surge. Making maters worse, Dorian is arriving at a time of king tides for the East Coast. | Forecasters have warned of the risk of “life-threatening” storm surge. Making maters worse, Dorian is arriving at a time of king tides for the East Coast. |
| A king tide happens when gravitational forces of the moon, the sun and the earth are lined up, pulling the ocean back and forth with greater force than is usual. | A king tide happens when gravitational forces of the moon, the sun and the earth are lined up, pulling the ocean back and forth with greater force than is usual. |
| Well ahead of Dorian’s arrival, tides reached eight feet — around two feet above normal — in Charleston, S.C., on Thursday, flooding roads and causing major headaches. Tides there are expected to climb even higher on Friday evening, perhaps reaching 8.2 feet and submerging many low-lying roads. | Well ahead of Dorian’s arrival, tides reached eight feet — around two feet above normal — in Charleston, S.C., on Thursday, flooding roads and causing major headaches. Tides there are expected to climb even higher on Friday evening, perhaps reaching 8.2 feet and submerging many low-lying roads. |
| Shannon Scaff, Charleston’s emergency management director, said he was most concerned about what happens when Dorian arrives in five to seven days there. Heavy rainfall — possibly more than a foot — could coincide with still elevated high tides. | Shannon Scaff, Charleston’s emergency management director, said he was most concerned about what happens when Dorian arrives in five to seven days there. Heavy rainfall — possibly more than a foot — could coincide with still elevated high tides. |
| Over the past few years, he said, hurricanes like Matthew and Irma have wrought new and unpredictable flooding patterns. | Over the past few years, he said, hurricanes like Matthew and Irma have wrought new and unpredictable flooding patterns. |
| “Sometimes the forecasts are just off,” he said. “We can’t stop the storm. We can’t stop the tides, but we’re going to make ourselves as ready as we can.” | “Sometimes the forecasts are just off,” he said. “We can’t stop the storm. We can’t stop the tides, but we’re going to make ourselves as ready as we can.” |
| A hurricane watch was also in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. As of 8 a.m., Dorian was centered about 250 miles east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas and was moving northwest near 12 miles per hour. | A hurricane watch was also in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. As of 8 a.m., Dorian was centered about 250 miles east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas and was moving northwest near 12 miles per hour. |
| Dorian was expected to arrive in the northwest Bahamas, a popular tourist spot, on Saturday and move over the area on Sunday. Residents were racing to finish their preparations on Friday. They cleaned out grocery store shelves, and worked to secure their homes and businesses. | Dorian was expected to arrive in the northwest Bahamas, a popular tourist spot, on Saturday and move over the area on Sunday. Residents were racing to finish their preparations on Friday. They cleaned out grocery store shelves, and worked to secure their homes and businesses. |
| Wayne Neely, a local meteorologist, told the Nassau Guardian that the storm’s current track meant that it could miss the islands, “but any wobble, left or right, could take it either further north or further south and then there would be catastrophe.” | Wayne Neely, a local meteorologist, told the Nassau Guardian that the storm’s current track meant that it could miss the islands, “but any wobble, left or right, could take it either further north or further south and then there would be catastrophe.” |
| Flights were still landing at Grand Bahama International Airport in Freeport on Friday morning. The Bahamas Paradise Cruise Line canceled its Sept. 1 and 3 departures on its Grand Celebration, but its cruise on Friday was still scheduled to depart as planned. | Flights were still landing at Grand Bahama International Airport in Freeport on Friday morning. The Bahamas Paradise Cruise Line canceled its Sept. 1 and 3 departures on its Grand Celebration, but its cruise on Friday was still scheduled to depart as planned. |
| The authorities in the Bahamas were asking tourists with vacations planned for the Labor Day weekend to check with airlines, hotels and cruise lines before leaving their homes. | The authorities in the Bahamas were asking tourists with vacations planned for the Labor Day weekend to check with airlines, hotels and cruise lines before leaving their homes. |
| Powerful winds are what define a hurricane, so they are named and classified based on how hard their winds are blowing. To qualify as a hurricane, a storm must have sustained winds of 74 miles an hour or more. | Powerful winds are what define a hurricane, so they are named and classified based on how hard their winds are blowing. To qualify as a hurricane, a storm must have sustained winds of 74 miles an hour or more. |
| All hurricanes are dangerous, but some pack more punch than others. So meteorologists try to quantify each storm’s destructive power by using the Saffir-Simpson scale, placing it in one of five categories based on sustained wind speed. | All hurricanes are dangerous, but some pack more punch than others. So meteorologists try to quantify each storm’s destructive power by using the Saffir-Simpson scale, placing it in one of five categories based on sustained wind speed. |
| The National Hurricane Center said on Thursday that Dorian was expected to hit Florida as a “major” hurricane — in Category 3 or possibly Category 4. | The National Hurricane Center said on Thursday that Dorian was expected to hit Florida as a “major” hurricane — in Category 3 or possibly Category 4. |
| Category 3 hurricanes, with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h., can take roofs off well-constructed houses and knock out electric and water systems for days or weeks. Category 4 hurricanes do catastrophic damage, felling most trees and power poles and wrecking some buildings with their wind speeds of 130 to 156 m.p.h. | Category 3 hurricanes, with wind speeds of 111 to 129 m.p.h., can take roofs off well-constructed houses and knock out electric and water systems for days or weeks. Category 4 hurricanes do catastrophic damage, felling most trees and power poles and wrecking some buildings with their wind speeds of 130 to 156 m.p.h. |
| [For details on how Hurricane Dorian is affecting flights, cruises and Disney World, read our story here.] | [For details on how Hurricane Dorian is affecting flights, cruises and Disney World, read our story here.] |
| But some experts say the scale is a limited way to assess a storm’s destructive potential because it focuses only on the power of its winds, and not on the surge of seawater that a storm flings ashore, or on the flooding caused by its torrential rains. Most hurricane fatalities and property damage tend to be caused by those factors. | But some experts say the scale is a limited way to assess a storm’s destructive potential because it focuses only on the power of its winds, and not on the surge of seawater that a storm flings ashore, or on the flooding caused by its torrential rains. Most hurricane fatalities and property damage tend to be caused by those factors. |
| Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it slammed into the Louisiana coast on Aug. 29, 2005. But it was the storm surge that overwhelmed New Orleans’s flood walls and levees and devastated the city. | Hurricane Katrina was a Category 3 storm when it slammed into the Louisiana coast on Aug. 29, 2005. But it was the storm surge that overwhelmed New Orleans’s flood walls and levees and devastated the city. |
| [Read more about how hurricanes are categorized.] | [Read more about how hurricanes are categorized.] |
| Hurricanes have a tragic history of interrupting Labor Day Weekend in Florida, including a 1935 storm that killed hundreds of World War I veterans who were working in the Florida Keys. It remains one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the United States in modern history. | Hurricanes have a tragic history of interrupting Labor Day Weekend in Florida, including a 1935 storm that killed hundreds of World War I veterans who were working in the Florida Keys. It remains one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the United States in modern history. |
| That storm, a Category 5, had been expected to miss the Keys. But an unexpected change in its route left a group of more than 600 veterans working on a highway construction project exposed to its wrath. An 11-car train sent to attempt a rescue was swept off the tracks by a tidal wave. | That storm, a Category 5, had been expected to miss the Keys. But an unexpected change in its route left a group of more than 600 veterans working on a highway construction project exposed to its wrath. An 11-car train sent to attempt a rescue was swept off the tracks by a tidal wave. |
| “Negligence played no part in the failure to evacuate the 684 World War veterans from camps in the Florida Keys,” a New York Times article published days after the storm said, citing an official report to the president that attributed the losses to “an act of God.” | “Negligence played no part in the failure to evacuate the 684 World War veterans from camps in the Florida Keys,” a New York Times article published days after the storm said, citing an official report to the president that attributed the losses to “an act of God.” |
| The 1935 storm, known simply as the Labor Day Hurricane, pushed up Florida’s west coast after battering the Keys, leading to high tides in St. Petersburg and Tampa and ripping roofs off buildings in Sarasota. | The 1935 storm, known simply as the Labor Day Hurricane, pushed up Florida’s west coast after battering the Keys, leading to high tides in St. Petersburg and Tampa and ripping roofs off buildings in Sarasota. |
| In all, 408 deaths were blamed on the Labor Day Hurricane, most of them in the Keys. A crowd of 20,000 mourners later gathered to pay their respects. The Times reported that the bodies of the veterans were burned at the scene “for the protection of those who survived.” | In all, 408 deaths were blamed on the Labor Day Hurricane, most of them in the Keys. A crowd of 20,000 mourners later gathered to pay their respects. The Times reported that the bodies of the veterans were burned at the scene “for the protection of those who survived.” |
| Teams of researchers are routinely sent on flights into the centers of storms to gather crucial data. These so-called hurricane hunters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, based in Lakeland, Fla., and their partners went to get a snapshot of the storm’s insides. | Teams of researchers are routinely sent on flights into the centers of storms to gather crucial data. These so-called hurricane hunters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, based in Lakeland, Fla., and their partners went to get a snapshot of the storm’s insides. |
| On Thursday, the agency announced that it had completed a reconnaissance mission with its first all female three-pilot flight crew, featuring Capt. Kristie Twining, Cmdr. Rebecca Waddington and Lt. Lindsey Norman. | On Thursday, the agency announced that it had completed a reconnaissance mission with its first all female three-pilot flight crew, featuring Capt. Kristie Twining, Cmdr. Rebecca Waddington and Lt. Lindsey Norman. |
| Last month, The Times sent a reporter and a photographer into the heart of Tropical Storm Barry. They learned that it is not for the faint of heart. | Last month, The Times sent a reporter and a photographer into the heart of Tropical Storm Barry. They learned that it is not for the faint of heart. |
| [Join the flight into the heart of Barry here.] | [Join the flight into the heart of Barry here.] |
| Reporting was contributed by Adeel Hassan, Patrick J. Lyons, Mitch Smith, Chris Dixon and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs. | Reporting was contributed by Adeel Hassan, Patrick J. Lyons, Mitch Smith, Chris Dixon and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs. |