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| Brexit 'do or die': what are Boris Johnson's options now? | Brexit 'do or die': what are Boris Johnson's options now? |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Boris Johnson’s 31 October “do or die” Brexit deadline appears to be out of reach. At Wednesday’s meeting with Jeremy Corbyn – and the pair’s chief advisers, Dominic Cummings and Seumas Milne – the government side expressed the hope that a new timetable could be agreed in time to leave by Halloween. | |
| Cummings reportedly indicated that MPs should be prepared to sit through the night, if that was what it would take. | Cummings reportedly indicated that MPs should be prepared to sit through the night, if that was what it would take. |
| Boris Johnson has three options to try and call a general election. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, an election may be called if it is agreed by two-thirds of the total number of MPs. Johnson presented motions for an election on 4 and 9 September and failed on both occasions when the majority of Labour MPs abstained. Johnson could try this again and potentially secure Labour backing, because the Benn act has removed the imminent possibility of a no-deal Brexit. | Boris Johnson has three options to try and call a general election. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, an election may be called if it is agreed by two-thirds of the total number of MPs. Johnson presented motions for an election on 4 and 9 September and failed on both occasions when the majority of Labour MPs abstained. Johnson could try this again and potentially secure Labour backing, because the Benn act has removed the imminent possibility of a no-deal Brexit. |
| This lowers the threshold of MPs needed to trigger a general election because it requires a simple majority to pass. This could work in Johnson’s favour. However, it is amendable, which can involve the moving of an election date to a time that works for the opposition. | This lowers the threshold of MPs needed to trigger a general election because it requires a simple majority to pass. This could work in Johnson’s favour. However, it is amendable, which can involve the moving of an election date to a time that works for the opposition. |
| The leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, can call a no-confidence motion in the prime minister. This needs a simple majority to pass. He has been urged to do this by Johnson several times as a way of triggering an election, but Corbyn has resisted. It begins a 14-day period in which either the prime minister or someone else can try to form a new government. While Johnson could potentially lose this, and therefore his place as prime minister, to another Conservative, Corbyn could also struggle to get enough MPs to rally around him to form a government. The Scottish National party has said it would back him, but the Liberal Democrats have been extremely vocal in saying they would not support him. An election is triggered if, at the end of the two-week period, no alternative government has been formed. | The leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, can call a no-confidence motion in the prime minister. This needs a simple majority to pass. He has been urged to do this by Johnson several times as a way of triggering an election, but Corbyn has resisted. It begins a 14-day period in which either the prime minister or someone else can try to form a new government. While Johnson could potentially lose this, and therefore his place as prime minister, to another Conservative, Corbyn could also struggle to get enough MPs to rally around him to form a government. The Scottish National party has said it would back him, but the Liberal Democrats have been extremely vocal in saying they would not support him. An election is triggered if, at the end of the two-week period, no alternative government has been formed. |
| Kate Proctor Political correspondent | Kate Proctor Political correspondent |
| Labour believes meeting the deadline is now impractical, but that an alternative parliamentary timetable could easily be agreed – if the government just lets go of that talismanic date. | Labour believes meeting the deadline is now impractical, but that an alternative parliamentary timetable could easily be agreed – if the government just lets go of that talismanic date. |
| So the prime minister must decide whether to press ahead with trying to push the withdrawal agreement bill through parliament, and “get Brexit done” before asking MPs to back a general election – or go to the voters now. | So the prime minister must decide whether to press ahead with trying to push the withdrawal agreement bill through parliament, and “get Brexit done” before asking MPs to back a general election – or go to the voters now. |
| What is the argument for holding an election? | |
| Some of Johnson’s allies – particularly the bullish Vote Leave veterans inside Downing Street – believe the majority of 30 the government achieved on Tuesday for the second reading of his Brexit bill is as good as it gets. | Some of Johnson’s allies – particularly the bullish Vote Leave veterans inside Downing Street – believe the majority of 30 the government achieved on Tuesday for the second reading of his Brexit bill is as good as it gets. |
| They have watched parliament delay and frustrate efforts to press ahead with Brexit for three years – not least when the Johnson resigned from Theresa May’s cabinet and voted against her deal twice. | They have watched parliament delay and frustrate efforts to press ahead with Brexit for three years – not least when the Johnson resigned from Theresa May’s cabinet and voted against her deal twice. |
| They fear that many of those 19 Labour MPs who rebelled against Corbyn to vote for the government could easily melt away later in the process. They could also succeed in allying with Conservative (and former Conservative) backbenchers to amend the legislation in ways Johnson, let alone the European Research Group, would find hard to stomach. | They fear that many of those 19 Labour MPs who rebelled against Corbyn to vote for the government could easily melt away later in the process. They could also succeed in allying with Conservative (and former Conservative) backbenchers to amend the legislation in ways Johnson, let alone the European Research Group, would find hard to stomach. |
| And they believe Johnson’s moment of maximum electoral appeal may be now: with Labour divided about Brexit tactics, and the bounce of having secured a majority for the deal, albeit just at second reading. | And they believe Johnson’s moment of maximum electoral appeal may be now: with Labour divided about Brexit tactics, and the bounce of having secured a majority for the deal, albeit just at second reading. |
| There is also the fact that without a majority, it will be extremely difficult for the prime minister to implement many of his policies. | There is also the fact that without a majority, it will be extremely difficult for the prime minister to implement many of his policies. |
| So what are the arguments against going to the polls? | |
| If he presses for an election now, Johnson will have to run on a platform of having been blocked by parliament from achieving what he promised to do – and there must be a risk that this appears a weakness, not a strength. | |
| It may be hard to explain to voters why he did not just get on and get Brexit done; and it could open the way to a resurgent Brexit party. | |
| As May’s chief of staff, Gavin (now Lord) Barwell, tweeted on Thursday morning: “The Conservative party must be in a better place vs the Brexit party in any campaign if we have actually left.” | |
| It was not May’s decision to delay Brexit – but her party was still hammered by Nigel Farage at May’s European elections. | |
| And Labour might fare better in an election in which it could focus on its domestic programme – and on promising to negotiate the closest possible trading relationship, and protect the rights and protections that would no longer be underpinned by EU legislation. | |
| When could an election be held? | When could an election be held? |
| If the EU27 signs off on the three-month extension as expected, the government could table a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act to be voted on early next week. | |
| If it secures a two-thirds majority – which appears likely, with Labour preparing to back it – polling day would be five weeks after parliament is dissolved, making it just possible to cram in an election before Christmas. Tuesday 10 December is one date under discussion. | If it secures a two-thirds majority – which appears likely, with Labour preparing to back it – polling day would be five weeks after parliament is dissolved, making it just possible to cram in an election before Christmas. Tuesday 10 December is one date under discussion. |
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