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Brexit 'do or die': what are Boris Johnson's options now? Brexit 'do or die': what are Boris Johnson's options now?
(about 8 hours later)
Boris Johnson’s 31 October “do or die” Brexit deadline appears to be out of reach. At Wednesday’s meeting with Jeremy Corbyn – and the pair’s chief advisers, Dominic Cummings and Seumas Milne – the government side expressed the hope that a new timetable could be agreed in time to leave by Halloween. Boris Johnson set out a new ultimatum on Thursday night to MPs: back a general election before Christmas in exchange for more time to scrutinise the Brexit deal.
Cummings reportedly indicated that MPs should be prepared to sit through the night, if that was what it would take. What exactly has Boris Johnson offered?
In a letter to Jeremy Corbyn, he sought to present himself as open to compromise by telling the Labour leader that he would, after weeks of rancour, give parliament “all possible time” – including late and early finishes and weekend sessions – to scrutinise his withdrawal agreement bill, and aim to ratify the bill by 6 November.
Whether the bill passes or not, he says, the arrangement would require Corbyn to agree to dissolve parliament immediately and hold an election on 12 December. His letter says that he expects Brussels to now grant an extension 31 January.
“You have repeatedly said that once the EU accepts parliament’s request for a delay until 31 January, then you would immediately support an election,” he writes. “I assume this remains your position and therefore you will support an election next week.”
Boris Johnson has three options to try and call a general election. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, an election may be called if it is agreed by two-thirds of the total number of MPs. Johnson presented motions for an election on 4 and 9 September and failed on both occasions when the majority of Labour MPs abstained. Johnson could try this again and potentially secure Labour backing, because the Benn act has removed the imminent possibility of a no-deal Brexit.Boris Johnson has three options to try and call a general election. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, an election may be called if it is agreed by two-thirds of the total number of MPs. Johnson presented motions for an election on 4 and 9 September and failed on both occasions when the majority of Labour MPs abstained. Johnson could try this again and potentially secure Labour backing, because the Benn act has removed the imminent possibility of a no-deal Brexit.
This lowers the threshold of MPs needed to trigger a general election because it requires a simple majority to pass. This could work in Johnson’s favour. However, it is amendable, which can involve the moving of an election date to a time that works for the opposition. This lowers the threshold of MPs needed to trigger a general election because it requires a simple majority to pass. This could work in Johnson’s favour. However, it is amendable, which can involve the moving of an election date to a time that works for the opposition. 
The leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, can call a no-confidence motion in the prime minister. This needs a simple majority to pass. He has been urged to do this by Johnson several times as a way of triggering an election, but Corbyn has resisted. It begins a 14-day period in which either the prime minister or someone else can try to form a new government. While Johnson could potentially lose this, and therefore his place as prime minister, to another Conservative, Corbyn could also struggle to get enough MPs to rally around him to form a government. The Scottish National party has said it would back him, but the Liberal Democrats have been extremely vocal in saying they would not support him. An election is triggered if, at the end of the two-week period, no alternative government has been formed.The leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, can call a no-confidence motion in the prime minister. This needs a simple majority to pass. He has been urged to do this by Johnson several times as a way of triggering an election, but Corbyn has resisted. It begins a 14-day period in which either the prime minister or someone else can try to form a new government. While Johnson could potentially lose this, and therefore his place as prime minister, to another Conservative, Corbyn could also struggle to get enough MPs to rally around him to form a government. The Scottish National party has said it would back him, but the Liberal Democrats have been extremely vocal in saying they would not support him. An election is triggered if, at the end of the two-week period, no alternative government has been formed.
Kate Proctor Political correspondentKate Proctor Political correspondent
Labour believes meeting the deadline is now impractical, but that an alternative parliamentary timetable could easily be agreed – if the government just lets go of that talismanic date. Why?
So the prime minister must decide whether to press ahead with trying to push the withdrawal agreement bill through parliament, and “get Brexit done” before asking MPs to back a general election – or go to the voters now. Because he thinks that if Corbyn accepts, the move will give him the best chance of securing a Brexit deal and winning a subsequent election – or failing to get a deal but winning an election by casting Corbyn as the obstacle. Even if Corbyn rejects the offer, Johnson will calculate that Downing Street will again be able to present a “people vs parliament” dichotomy to the public.
What is the argument for holding an election? How would such a deal be done?
Some of Johnson’s allies – particularly the bullish Vote Leave veterans inside Downing Street – believe the majority of 30 the government achieved on Tuesday for the second reading of his Brexit bill is as good as it gets. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, two thirds of MPs would have to back a motion asking for an early general election. The motion will be tabled on Monday.
They have watched parliament delay and frustrate efforts to press ahead with Brexit for three years – not least when the Johnson resigned from Theresa May’s cabinet and voted against her deal twice. How has Labour responded?
They fear that many of those 19 Labour MPs who rebelled against Corbyn to vote for the government could easily melt away later in the process. They could also succeed in allying with Conservative (and former Conservative) backbenchers to amend the legislation in ways Johnson, let alone the European Research Group, would find hard to stomach. Labour appeared poised to reject the bill, with Corbyn immediately saying that he would not support an election until a no-deal Brexit was “off the table”. But there will be no formal decision from the front bench until Friday morning. Several shadow cabinet members are said to be minded to reject Johnson’s offer, arguing that 6 November is an artificial deadline for the withdrawal agreement bill. Backbenchers are also said to be anxious about a winter election. But the Momentum campaign group urged the party to back an election, saying: “Bring it on.”
And they believe Johnson’s moment of maximum electoral appeal may be now: with Labour divided about Brexit tactics, and the bounce of having secured a majority for the deal, albeit just at second reading. If it does reject the offer, Labour is likely to argue that Johnson is simply trying to distract from his failure to achieve his “do or die” 31 October Brexit promise and seek to portray Johnson as serially dishonest and impossible to trust on Brexit.
There is also the fact that without a majority, it will be extremely difficult for the prime minister to implement many of his policies. What about Brussels?
So what are the arguments against going to the polls? Sources said that while the significant changes would need to be digested, they could easily alter plans for an extension – which could now be put on hold until the next steps in Westminster have been clarified.
If he presses for an election now, Johnson will have to run on a platform of having been blocked by parliament from achieving what he promised to do – and there must be a risk that this appears a weakness, not a strength. What will happen if the offer is rejected?
It may be hard to explain to voters why he did not just get on and get Brexit done; and it could open the way to a resurgent Brexit party. Downing Street sources say that they will pull the withdrawal agreement bill to deny MPs the chance to scrutinise it. And they will simply raise the idea again day after day – calculating that parliamentary paralysis will eventually force Labour to concede that an election is inevitable.
As May’s chief of staff, Gavin (now Lord) Barwell, tweeted on Thursday morning: “The Conservative party must be in a better place vs the Brexit party in any campaign if we have actually left.”
It was not May’s decision to delay Brexit – but her party was still hammered by Nigel Farage at May’s European elections.
And Labour might fare better in an election in which it could focus on its domestic programme – and on promising to negotiate the closest possible trading relationship, and protect the rights and protections that would no longer be underpinned by EU legislation.
When could an election be held?
If the EU27 signs off on the three-month extension as expected, the government could table a motion under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act to be voted on early next week.
If it secures a two-thirds majority – which appears likely, with Labour preparing to back it – polling day would be five weeks after parliament is dissolved, making it just possible to cram in an election before Christmas. Tuesday 10 December is one date under discussion.
BrexitBrexit
European UnionEuropean Union
EuropeEurope
Foreign policyForeign policy
Boris JohnsonBoris Johnson
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