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General election: Farage says Brexit party will not stand in 317 Tory seats - live news General election: Farage says Brexit party will not stand in 317 Tory seats - live news
(32 minutes later)
Farage says he was worried Brexit party could let the Lib Dems take seats from Tories. Follow all the developments nowFarage says he was worried Brexit party could let the Lib Dems take seats from Tories. Follow all the developments now
Nigel Farage’s announcement has lifted sterling on the foreign exchange markets.
The pound has hit a six-month high against the euro, at €1.168.
Sterling is also up a cent against the US dollar at $1.288.
City traders are calculating that a hung parliament is now less likely - although the Brexit party will still be competing in Conservative target seats.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com says:
And here is an essay question from another politics professor, Chris Hanretty.
This is from Will Tanner, the former No 10 aide who now runs the Conservative thinktank Onward.
These are from Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor specialising in the rise of Brexit party-style national populist parties.These are from Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor specialising in the rise of Brexit party-style national populist parties.
Boris Johnson has welcomed the Brexit party’s decision to stand down in Tory seats.Boris Johnson has welcomed the Brexit party’s decision to stand down in Tory seats.
Here is my colleague Kate Proctor’s full story about Nigel Farage’s decision.Here is my colleague Kate Proctor’s full story about Nigel Farage’s decision.
Here is some more comment on Nigel Farage’s decision from journalists.Here is some more comment on Nigel Farage’s decision from journalists.
From Sky’s Lewis GoodallFrom Sky’s Lewis Goodall
From my colleague Owen JonesFrom my colleague Owen Jones
From the Spectator’s James ForsythFrom the Spectator’s James Forsyth
From the Financial Times’ George ParkerFrom the Financial Times’ George Parker
From my colleague Peter WalkerFrom my colleague Peter Walker
From the Observer’s Nick CohenFrom the Observer’s Nick Cohen
From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan HodgesFrom the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges
From Isabel OakeshottFrom Isabel Oakeshott
From the BBC’s Norman SmithFrom the BBC’s Norman Smith
From my colleague Dan MilmoFrom my colleague Dan Milmo
From the Times’ Daniel FinkelsteinFrom the Times’ Daniel Finkelstein
From BloombergFrom Bloomberg
This is undoubtedly the best news that Boris Johnson has had during the election campaign so far. It doesn’t mean that the result of the election is now a foregone conclusion, and it does not mean that a hung parliament is now impossible, as Nigel Farage claimed, but the result of an election in which the Brexit party is not standing in Tory seats will probably not be the same as an election in which it was splitting the Brexit vote in those constituencies.This is undoubtedly the best news that Boris Johnson has had during the election campaign so far. It doesn’t mean that the result of the election is now a foregone conclusion, and it does not mean that a hung parliament is now impossible, as Nigel Farage claimed, but the result of an election in which the Brexit party is not standing in Tory seats will probably not be the same as an election in which it was splitting the Brexit vote in those constituencies.
Only 11 days ago, when Farage announced that he would be standing candidates in around 600 seats in Britain, he was claiming that his tactic might harm Labour more than the Conservatives. At the time election expects said that he was wrong, and that Tory seats were most at risk. Today Farage has admitted that they were right, and he was wrong. Only 11 days ago, when Farage announced that he would be standing candidates in around 600 seats in Britain, he was claiming that his tactic might harm Labour more than the Conservatives. At the time, election experts said he was wrong and that Tory seats were most at risk. Today Farage has admitted they were right, and he was wrong.
But how much difference will this make in practice? It it hard to say, but two points are worth stressing. First, Farage is making this announcement because his poll ratings have been falling. He is capitulating from a position of weakness, not a position of strength. The polls have not shifted a great deal in the past week, but one constant feature is that the Brexit party vote has been heading south. Perhaps he was not as big a threat to the Tories as people thought. Here are the figures from the Guardian’s poll tracker.But how much difference will this make in practice? It it hard to say, but two points are worth stressing. First, Farage is making this announcement because his poll ratings have been falling. He is capitulating from a position of weakness, not a position of strength. The polls have not shifted a great deal in the past week, but one constant feature is that the Brexit party vote has been heading south. Perhaps he was not as big a threat to the Tories as people thought. Here are the figures from the Guardian’s poll tracker.
Second, the Brexit party still seems to be intent on standing candidates in Tory target seats - particularly the leave-leaning Labour seats in the north of England, where for a long time Farage has been saying his party could do well. In theory the Brexit party could still split the Brexit vote in these place, preventing Boris Johnson from making the gains he needs to win a majority. But it wouldn’t be in Farage’s interests to do this if he wants Johnson to have a majority, and so it seems more likely that, in reality, the Tories and the Brexit will operate unofficial non-aggression pacts in these places, allowing the best placed party to challenge Labour. That would be what you would expect from a “leave alliance” - which is what he now says exists. (See 12.19pm.) Second, the Brexit party still seems to be intent on standing candidates in Tory target seats - particularly the leave-leaning Labour seats in the north of England, where for a long time Farage has been saying his party could do well. In theory the Brexit party could still split the Brexit vote in these place, preventing Boris Johnson from making the gains he needs to win a majority. But it wouldn’t be in Farage’s interests to do this if he wants Johnson to have a majority, and so it seems more likely that, in reality, the Tories and the Brexit party will operate unofficial non-aggression pacts in these places, allowing the best placed party to challenge Labour. That would be what you would expect from a “leave alliance”, which is what he now says exists. (See 12.19pm.)
Farage’s climbdown is considerable. Only 11 days ago he was saying that Johnson would have to abandon his Brexit plan wholesale for the Brexit party to give up its plan to stand 600 candidates in Britain. Since then Johnson has said nothing that amounts to any form of concession, and the points the PM has been making about wanting to break free of EU regulation are ones he has always been making. And, as Farage himself acknowledged, the promise not to extend the transition beyond the end of 2020 is effectively worthless in the light of what happened to Johnson’s “die in the ditch” pledge to deliver Brexit by 31 October. The only face-saving offer from the PM was the fact that he posted a video last night making these points, effectively offering Farage a ladder down which he could climb. (See 12.13pm.) There is already speculation that Farage came under pressure to concede from Johnson’s ally, Donald Trump. This is from the Labour MP David Lammy. Farage’s climbdown is considerable. Only 11 days ago he was saying that Johnson would have to abandon his Brexit plan wholesale for the Brexit party to give up its plan to stand 600 candidates in Britain. Since then, Johnson has said nothing that amounts to any form of concession, and the points the PM has been making about wanting to break free of EU regulation are ones he has always been making. And, as Farage himself acknowledged, the promise not to extend the transition beyond the end of 2020 is effectively worthless in the light of what happened to Johnson’s “die in the ditch” pledge to deliver Brexit by 31 October. The only face-saving offer from the PM was the fact that he posted a video last night making these points, effectively offering Farage a ladder down which he could climb. (See 12.13pm.) There is already speculation that Farage came under pressure to concede from Johnson’s ally, Donald Trump. This is from the Labour MP David Lammy.
Farage’s announcement may also prompt the BBC and other broadcasters to reconsider how they cover the Brexit party during the campaign. The BBC had invited him to a seven-party debate, and to a Question Time special. And all broadcasters have been covering the party on the assumption it is a GB-wide party, fighting all seats. In the light of today’s news, we may see less of Farage on TV than before. That could further suppress his vote.Farage’s announcement may also prompt the BBC and other broadcasters to reconsider how they cover the Brexit party during the campaign. The BBC had invited him to a seven-party debate, and to a Question Time special. And all broadcasters have been covering the party on the assumption it is a GB-wide party, fighting all seats. In the light of today’s news, we may see less of Farage on TV than before. That could further suppress his vote.
One final point. Until relatively recently it was assumed that, if the Tories tried to fight an election without having delivered Brexit, they would get smashed by the Farage party. Almost all media commentators thought this, but so did Johnson himself, and probably Farage too. But that was another piece of conventional political wisdom (like the idea that Jeremy Corbyn could never win a Labour leadership contest) that turned out to be nonsense. You could cite this as proof that the Westminster commentariat are all rubbish (perhaps we are?), but it is probably better seen as evidence that voter behaviour is inherently unpredictable. One final point. Until relatively recently it was assumed that if the Tories tried to fight an election without having delivered Brexit, they would get smashed by the Brexit party. Almost all media commentators thought this, but so did Johnson himself, and probably Farage too. But that was another piece of conventional political wisdom (like the idea that Jeremy Corbyn could never win a Labour leadership contest) that turned out to be nonsense. You could cite this as proof that the Westminster commentariat are all rubbish (perhaps we are?), but it is probably better seen as evidence that voter behaviour is inherently unpredictable.
Farage says he is taking this decision to prevent the risk of a second Brexit referendum.Farage says he is taking this decision to prevent the risk of a second Brexit referendum.
He says that what he is announcing is, in practice, a leave alliance.He says that what he is announcing is, in practice, a leave alliance.
Farage says he weighed up Johnson’s promises against the threat that the Brexit party standing could let the Lib Dems in.Farage says he weighed up Johnson’s promises against the threat that the Brexit party standing could let the Lib Dems in.
Farage says the Brexit party will not stand against the Tories in the 317 seats they won in 2017.Farage says the Brexit party will not stand against the Tories in the 317 seats they won in 2017.
But it will concentrate its efforts on seats held by the Labour party.But it will concentrate its efforts on seats held by the Labour party.
And it will also challenge other remainer parties.And it will also challenge other remainer parties.
Farage says last night he saw something that was optimistic.
He says he saw a video of Boris Johnson saying he would not extend the Brexit transition.
He says people might say Johnson broke his promise not to delay Brexit beyond 31 October.
But at least this was an unequivocal statement.
But Farage says Johnson also said he would negotiate a super Canada-plus trade deal with no alignment.
Here is the video Farage is referring to.
Farage says he tried to build a leave alliance.
He tried to put out the idea that putting country before party was the right thing to do. But that came to naught, he says.
Farage says he has had to consider what the consequences of this would be.
He says he does not accept fielding 600 candidates would allow Jeremy Corbyn to win.
But, he says, he does think that would have led to there being a hung parliament.
And it would have led to a large number of Lib Dem gains.
If the remainer parties could get to 320 seats, there would be a second referendum, he says.
He says the UK would be offered a false choice between remain, and a form of remain.
He says it has not been easy to decide what to do.
Farage says what he was worried about most was that the UK would align itself to EU rules under Boris Johnson’s plan.
He says he thought this was not real Brexit.
That is why the Brexit party decided to stand candidates in 600 seats.
Farage says he was “very unhappy” when he heard about Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.
Unlike many people who praised it, he read it, and drew the conclusion it was not Brexit, he says.
Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, is speaking now.
He says he will reveal his party’s election strategy in a moment.
From the BBC’s Faisal Islam
My colleague Kate Proctor is in Hartlepool for the Brexit party news conference, which is due to start shortly. She has just posted this on Twitter.
And the Labour party has today committed to having a qualified, on-site counsellor in every secondary school in England, as part of a “healthy young minds” plan worth £845m a year. The party is also committing to setting up a network of mental health hubs to allow children more access to mental health support and ensuring every primary school has access to a qualified counsellor.
In a news release about the plan, Jeremy Corbyn said:
The SNP has this morning called for at least £1bn of North Sea revenues to be set aside to help areas heavily dependent on oil and gas make the switch to a greener economy.
With the Office for Budget Responsibility having forecast the UK’s oil and gas sector will raise £8.5bn in revenue over the next five years, the SNP is calling for that cash to be ring-fenced in its entirety, to fund efforts to tackle the climate crisis. As the Press Association reports, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is saying that at least £1bn should be set aside to support a “just transition” for areas like the north-east, Falkirk and Shetland where the oil and gas industry is a major employer.
In a statement issued this morning Sturgeon said:
SNP ministers have already put through legislation committing Scotland to achieving net zero emissions by 2045 - five years ahead of the UK target.