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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/nov/11/general-election-parties-vie-for-veterans-votes-as-keith-vaz-quits-politics-live
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General election: Farage says Brexit party will not stand in 317 Tory seats - live news | General election: Farage says Brexit party will not stand in 317 Tory seats - live news |
(32 minutes later) | |
Farage says he was worried Brexit party could let the Lib Dems take seats from Tories. Follow all the developments now | Farage says he was worried Brexit party could let the Lib Dems take seats from Tories. Follow all the developments now |
Nigel Farage’s announcement has lifted sterling on the foreign exchange markets. | |
The pound has hit a six-month high against the euro, at €1.168. | |
Sterling is also up a cent against the US dollar at $1.288. | |
City traders are calculating that a hung parliament is now less likely - although the Brexit party will still be competing in Conservative target seats. | |
Neil Wilson of Markets.com says: | |
And here is an essay question from another politics professor, Chris Hanretty. | |
This is from Will Tanner, the former No 10 aide who now runs the Conservative thinktank Onward. | |
These are from Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor specialising in the rise of Brexit party-style national populist parties. | These are from Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor specialising in the rise of Brexit party-style national populist parties. |
Boris Johnson has welcomed the Brexit party’s decision to stand down in Tory seats. | Boris Johnson has welcomed the Brexit party’s decision to stand down in Tory seats. |
Here is my colleague Kate Proctor’s full story about Nigel Farage’s decision. | Here is my colleague Kate Proctor’s full story about Nigel Farage’s decision. |
Here is some more comment on Nigel Farage’s decision from journalists. | Here is some more comment on Nigel Farage’s decision from journalists. |
From Sky’s Lewis Goodall | From Sky’s Lewis Goodall |
From my colleague Owen Jones | From my colleague Owen Jones |
From the Spectator’s James Forsyth | From the Spectator’s James Forsyth |
From the Financial Times’ George Parker | From the Financial Times’ George Parker |
From my colleague Peter Walker | From my colleague Peter Walker |
From the Observer’s Nick Cohen | From the Observer’s Nick Cohen |
From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges | From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges |
From Isabel Oakeshott | From Isabel Oakeshott |
From the BBC’s Norman Smith | From the BBC’s Norman Smith |
From my colleague Dan Milmo | From my colleague Dan Milmo |
From the Times’ Daniel Finkelstein | From the Times’ Daniel Finkelstein |
From Bloomberg | From Bloomberg |
This is undoubtedly the best news that Boris Johnson has had during the election campaign so far. It doesn’t mean that the result of the election is now a foregone conclusion, and it does not mean that a hung parliament is now impossible, as Nigel Farage claimed, but the result of an election in which the Brexit party is not standing in Tory seats will probably not be the same as an election in which it was splitting the Brexit vote in those constituencies. | This is undoubtedly the best news that Boris Johnson has had during the election campaign so far. It doesn’t mean that the result of the election is now a foregone conclusion, and it does not mean that a hung parliament is now impossible, as Nigel Farage claimed, but the result of an election in which the Brexit party is not standing in Tory seats will probably not be the same as an election in which it was splitting the Brexit vote in those constituencies. |
Only 11 days ago, when Farage announced that he would be standing candidates in around 600 seats in Britain, he was claiming that his tactic might harm Labour more than the Conservatives. At the time, election experts said he was wrong and that Tory seats were most at risk. Today Farage has admitted they were right, and he was wrong. | |
But how much difference will this make in practice? It it hard to say, but two points are worth stressing. First, Farage is making this announcement because his poll ratings have been falling. He is capitulating from a position of weakness, not a position of strength. The polls have not shifted a great deal in the past week, but one constant feature is that the Brexit party vote has been heading south. Perhaps he was not as big a threat to the Tories as people thought. Here are the figures from the Guardian’s poll tracker. | But how much difference will this make in practice? It it hard to say, but two points are worth stressing. First, Farage is making this announcement because his poll ratings have been falling. He is capitulating from a position of weakness, not a position of strength. The polls have not shifted a great deal in the past week, but one constant feature is that the Brexit party vote has been heading south. Perhaps he was not as big a threat to the Tories as people thought. Here are the figures from the Guardian’s poll tracker. |
Second, the Brexit party still seems to be intent on standing candidates in Tory target seats - particularly the leave-leaning Labour seats in the north of England, where for a long time Farage has been saying his party could do well. In theory the Brexit party could still split the Brexit vote in these place, preventing Boris Johnson from making the gains he needs to win a majority. But it wouldn’t be in Farage’s interests to do this if he wants Johnson to have a majority, and so it seems more likely that, in reality, the Tories and the Brexit party will operate unofficial non-aggression pacts in these places, allowing the best placed party to challenge Labour. That would be what you would expect from a “leave alliance”, which is what he now says exists. (See 12.19pm.) | |
Farage’s climbdown is considerable. Only 11 days ago he was saying that Johnson would have to abandon his Brexit plan wholesale for the Brexit party to give up its plan to stand 600 candidates in Britain. Since then, Johnson has said nothing that amounts to any form of concession, and the points the PM has been making about wanting to break free of EU regulation are ones he has always been making. And, as Farage himself acknowledged, the promise not to extend the transition beyond the end of 2020 is effectively worthless in the light of what happened to Johnson’s “die in the ditch” pledge to deliver Brexit by 31 October. The only face-saving offer from the PM was the fact that he posted a video last night making these points, effectively offering Farage a ladder down which he could climb. (See 12.13pm.) There is already speculation that Farage came under pressure to concede from Johnson’s ally, Donald Trump. This is from the Labour MP David Lammy. | |
Farage’s announcement may also prompt the BBC and other broadcasters to reconsider how they cover the Brexit party during the campaign. The BBC had invited him to a seven-party debate, and to a Question Time special. And all broadcasters have been covering the party on the assumption it is a GB-wide party, fighting all seats. In the light of today’s news, we may see less of Farage on TV than before. That could further suppress his vote. | Farage’s announcement may also prompt the BBC and other broadcasters to reconsider how they cover the Brexit party during the campaign. The BBC had invited him to a seven-party debate, and to a Question Time special. And all broadcasters have been covering the party on the assumption it is a GB-wide party, fighting all seats. In the light of today’s news, we may see less of Farage on TV than before. That could further suppress his vote. |
One final point. Until relatively recently it was assumed that if the Tories tried to fight an election without having delivered Brexit, they would get smashed by the Brexit party. Almost all media commentators thought this, but so did Johnson himself, and probably Farage too. But that was another piece of conventional political wisdom (like the idea that Jeremy Corbyn could never win a Labour leadership contest) that turned out to be nonsense. You could cite this as proof that the Westminster commentariat are all rubbish (perhaps we are?), but it is probably better seen as evidence that voter behaviour is inherently unpredictable. | |
Farage says he is taking this decision to prevent the risk of a second Brexit referendum. | Farage says he is taking this decision to prevent the risk of a second Brexit referendum. |
He says that what he is announcing is, in practice, a leave alliance. | He says that what he is announcing is, in practice, a leave alliance. |
Farage says he weighed up Johnson’s promises against the threat that the Brexit party standing could let the Lib Dems in. | Farage says he weighed up Johnson’s promises against the threat that the Brexit party standing could let the Lib Dems in. |
Farage says the Brexit party will not stand against the Tories in the 317 seats they won in 2017. | Farage says the Brexit party will not stand against the Tories in the 317 seats they won in 2017. |
But it will concentrate its efforts on seats held by the Labour party. | But it will concentrate its efforts on seats held by the Labour party. |
And it will also challenge other remainer parties. | And it will also challenge other remainer parties. |