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General election: Farage says Brexit party will not stand in 317 Tory seats - live news General election: Farage says Brexit party will not stand in 317 Tory seats - live news
(32 minutes later)
Farage says he was worried Brexit party could let the Lib Dems take seats from Tories. Follow all the developments nowFarage says he was worried Brexit party could let the Lib Dems take seats from Tories. Follow all the developments now
The key question for the Brexit party and the Conservatives is what is going to happen in the Labour-held leave-voting seats where they both fancy their chances. Will there be some sort of unofficial non-aggression pact, where they divide up targets between them? We don’t know but my colleague Josh Halliday has just posted these about the contest in Hartlepool, the Labour-held seat where Richard Tice, the Brexit party chairman, is standing.
YouGov, the polling company, has sent out an analysis of the Nigel Farage decision saying it is unlikely to be a “game-changing moment” for the election. This is from its political research manager, Chris Curtis.YouGov, the polling company, has sent out an analysis of the Nigel Farage decision saying it is unlikely to be a “game-changing moment” for the election. This is from its political research manager, Chris Curtis.
These are from my colleague Rajeev Syal, who has been in the high court this morning.These are from my colleague Rajeev Syal, who has been in the high court this morning.
I’ve been back on the Lib Dems’ electric-powered battle bus, and for once the party was not talking about Brexit.I’ve been back on the Lib Dems’ electric-powered battle bus, and for once the party was not talking about Brexit.
Sam Gyimah, the recently-defected former Tory MP who now speaks on business matters for the Lib Dems, was taken all the way from Westminster to Marylebone Road – slightly over two miles – to talk about the slightly awkwardly-named “skills wallet” plan, a commitment to give all adults £10,000 to spend on training over various points in their lives.Sam Gyimah, the recently-defected former Tory MP who now speaks on business matters for the Lib Dems, was taken all the way from Westminster to Marylebone Road – slightly over two miles – to talk about the slightly awkwardly-named “skills wallet” plan, a commitment to give all adults £10,000 to spend on training over various points in their lives.
He visited a company that provides tech-based apprenticeships, called WhiteHat. It was co-founded by none other than Euan Blair, eldest son of the former Labour PM, but he is currently on paternity leave and so missed any awkward questions about who he might vote for.He visited a company that provides tech-based apprenticeships, called WhiteHat. It was co-founded by none other than Euan Blair, eldest son of the former Labour PM, but he is currently on paternity leave and so missed any awkward questions about who he might vote for.
Gyimah, a former universities minister, happily chatted to staff and apprentices about all sorts of subjects, not least tuition fees, something of a toxic subject for the Lib Dems after they broke their 2010 manifesto pledge to support higher fees in the coalition government.Gyimah, a former universities minister, happily chatted to staff and apprentices about all sorts of subjects, not least tuition fees, something of a toxic subject for the Lib Dems after they broke their 2010 manifesto pledge to support higher fees in the coalition government.
Gyimah would not say what Lib Dem policy would be ahead of the party’s manifesto, but spoke strongly against ending fees, saying this ends up rationing access to higher education.Gyimah would not say what Lib Dem policy would be ahead of the party’s manifesto, but spoke strongly against ending fees, saying this ends up rationing access to higher education.
This brought no murmurs of dissent from the apprentices. Perhaps they were being polite, or having decided against university it was less of an issue. But it could also be that as younger voters, the events of 2010 feel like ancient history. The Lib Dems will certainly hope so.This brought no murmurs of dissent from the apprentices. Perhaps they were being polite, or having decided against university it was less of an issue. But it could also be that as younger voters, the events of 2010 feel like ancient history. The Lib Dems will certainly hope so.
Gyimah has abandoned the East Surrey seat he represented since 2010 to try his luck in Kensington. Labour’s Emma Dent Coad took this from the Conservatives in 2017, with the Lib Dems a distant third.Gyimah has abandoned the East Surrey seat he represented since 2010 to try his luck in Kensington. Labour’s Emma Dent Coad took this from the Conservatives in 2017, with the Lib Dems a distant third.
Speaking to me on the bus before the visit, Gyimah said he hoped to do well in a strongly pro-remain area, and to capitalise on Dent Coad’s occasionally divisive reputation:Speaking to me on the bus before the visit, Gyimah said he hoped to do well in a strongly pro-remain area, and to capitalise on Dent Coad’s occasionally divisive reputation:
Will he do it? Some polls have Gyimah currently second behind the Tories, but given the volatility of the election it is not impossible he could win.Will he do it? Some polls have Gyimah currently second behind the Tories, but given the volatility of the election it is not impossible he could win.
Wayne Bayley, who until lunchtime was the Brexit party candidate in Crawley, a Conservative-held seat, isn’t very happy about the decision taken by his leader.Wayne Bayley, who until lunchtime was the Brexit party candidate in Crawley, a Conservative-held seat, isn’t very happy about the decision taken by his leader.
The Scottish Greens have decided not to stand candidates in two hyper-marginal seats being defended by the Scottish National party, boosting the SNP’s hopes of holding them.The Scottish Greens have decided not to stand candidates in two hyper-marginal seats being defended by the Scottish National party, boosting the SNP’s hopes of holding them.
The pro-independence Scottish Green party (SGP) said its local branches had opted not to contest North East Fife, won by the SNP by just two votes in 2017, and Perth & North Perthshire, held by the SNP with a 21-vote margin in 2017, for “various reasons”.The pro-independence Scottish Green party (SGP) said its local branches had opted not to contest North East Fife, won by the SNP by just two votes in 2017, and Perth & North Perthshire, held by the SNP with a 21-vote margin in 2017, for “various reasons”.
The SNP is under intense pressure in both seats, with the Liberal Democrats determined to regain North East Fife from Stephen Gethins, the SNP’s international affairs spokesman, and the Scottish Tories investing heavily in defeating Pete Wishart in Perth and North Perthshire.The SNP is under intense pressure in both seats, with the Liberal Democrats determined to regain North East Fife from Stephen Gethins, the SNP’s international affairs spokesman, and the Scottish Tories investing heavily in defeating Pete Wishart in Perth and North Perthshire.
The Tories have repeatedly tried to unseat Wishart, who was furious when he found the SGP had a candidate to stand against him. He accused them of helping the Tories by diluting the pro-independence vote, leading to angry attacks on Green politicians on social media.The Tories have repeatedly tried to unseat Wishart, who was furious when he found the SGP had a candidate to stand against him. He accused them of helping the Tories by diluting the pro-independence vote, leading to angry attacks on Green politicians on social media.
On Sunday, hours after the local SGP branch decided not to contest his seat, Wishart tweeted a recommendation by one tactical voting website, Progressive Alliance, to back him.On Sunday, hours after the local SGP branch decided not to contest his seat, Wishart tweeted a recommendation by one tactical voting website, Progressive Alliance, to back him.
The SGP fielded a candidate in the 2015 election, taking 1,146 votes, and there is little love lost between the two parties. The Scottish Greens are highly critical of Nicola Sturgeon’s defence of North Sea oil and say her record on the climate crisis is much weaker than her rhetoric.The SGP fielded a candidate in the 2015 election, taking 1,146 votes, and there is little love lost between the two parties. The Scottish Greens are highly critical of Nicola Sturgeon’s defence of North Sea oil and say her record on the climate crisis is much weaker than her rhetoric.
An SGP denied this was an organised deal to protect pro-independence seats: they are likely to attack Wishart’s record of voting for the oil industry. A SGP spokesman said:An SGP denied this was an organised deal to protect pro-independence seats: they are likely to attack Wishart’s record of voting for the oil industry. A SGP spokesman said:
The Scottish Greens won 1,387 votes in North East Fife in 2015, when Gethins first took the seat from the Liberal Democrats when Menzies Campbell, the former Lib Dem leader retired after nearly 30 years as the local MP. Despite backing out in that seat, they are contesting another SNP marginal nearby, of Dunfermline and West Fife. They took 1,196 votes there in 2015; the SNP held the seat by 844 votes in 2017.The Scottish Greens won 1,387 votes in North East Fife in 2015, when Gethins first took the seat from the Liberal Democrats when Menzies Campbell, the former Lib Dem leader retired after nearly 30 years as the local MP. Despite backing out in that seat, they are contesting another SNP marginal nearby, of Dunfermline and West Fife. They took 1,196 votes there in 2015; the SNP held the seat by 844 votes in 2017.
In an interview on the World at One Prof Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s lead elections expert and the person who oversees the national exit poll, said that although Nigel Farage’s decision would not make a big difference, it would probably wipe out the advantage that the Lib Dems gained from the remain alliance pact announced last week.In an interview on the World at One Prof Sir John Curtice, the BBC’s lead elections expert and the person who oversees the national exit poll, said that although Nigel Farage’s decision would not make a big difference, it would probably wipe out the advantage that the Lib Dems gained from the remain alliance pact announced last week.
The Brexit party is standing down in seats the Tories held in 2017. But, given the state of the opinion polls (which generally show the Tories ahead of Labour by around 10 points - a much larger margin than on election night in 2017), the Conservatives would currently expect to hold most of these anyway, Curtice said.The Brexit party is standing down in seats the Tories held in 2017. But, given the state of the opinion polls (which generally show the Tories ahead of Labour by around 10 points - a much larger margin than on election night in 2017), the Conservatives would currently expect to hold most of these anyway, Curtice said.
He said there were two exceptions to this.He said there were two exceptions to this.
In Scotland the Tories are at risk of losing seats to the SNP, he said. But he said the Brexit party was weak in Scotland, so “this is probably not going to help the Tories very much in that,” Curtice said.In Scotland the Tories are at risk of losing seats to the SNP, he said. But he said the Brexit party was weak in Scotland, so “this is probably not going to help the Tories very much in that,” Curtice said.
The main impact would be in seats where the Tories faced a strong Lib Dem challenge, Curtice said.The main impact would be in seats where the Tories faced a strong Lib Dem challenge, Curtice said.
Curtice said in Labour-held seats, where the Brexit party still intends to stand, the Farage decision would not make much difference. But he included this qualifier:Curtice said in Labour-held seats, where the Brexit party still intends to stand, the Farage decision would not make much difference. But he included this qualifier:
Summing up the overall impact, Curtice said:Summing up the overall impact, Curtice said:
Nigel Farage’s announcement has lifted sterling on the foreign exchange markets.Nigel Farage’s announcement has lifted sterling on the foreign exchange markets.
The pound has hit a six-month high against the euro, at €1.168.The pound has hit a six-month high against the euro, at €1.168.
Sterling is also up a cent against the US dollar at $1.288.Sterling is also up a cent against the US dollar at $1.288.
City traders are calculating that a hung parliament is now less likely - although the Brexit party will still be competing in Conservative target seats.City traders are calculating that a hung parliament is now less likely - although the Brexit party will still be competing in Conservative target seats.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com says:Neil Wilson of Markets.com says:
And here is an essay question from another politics professor, Chris Hanretty.And here is an essay question from another politics professor, Chris Hanretty.
This is from Will Tanner, the former No 10 aide who now runs the Conservative thinktank Onward.This is from Will Tanner, the former No 10 aide who now runs the Conservative thinktank Onward.
These are from Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor specialising in the rise of Brexit party-style national populist parties.These are from Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor specialising in the rise of Brexit party-style national populist parties.
Boris Johnson has welcomed the Brexit party’s decision to stand down in Tory seats.Boris Johnson has welcomed the Brexit party’s decision to stand down in Tory seats.
Here is my colleague Kate Proctor’s full story about Nigel Farage’s decision.Here is my colleague Kate Proctor’s full story about Nigel Farage’s decision.
Here is some more comment on Nigel Farage’s decision from journalists.Here is some more comment on Nigel Farage’s decision from journalists.
From Sky’s Lewis GoodallFrom Sky’s Lewis Goodall
From my colleague Owen JonesFrom my colleague Owen Jones
From the Spectator’s James ForsythFrom the Spectator’s James Forsyth
From the Financial Times’ George ParkerFrom the Financial Times’ George Parker
From my colleague Peter WalkerFrom my colleague Peter Walker
From the Observer’s Nick CohenFrom the Observer’s Nick Cohen
From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan HodgesFrom the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges
From Isabel OakeshottFrom Isabel Oakeshott
From the BBC’s Norman SmithFrom the BBC’s Norman Smith
From my colleague Dan MilmoFrom my colleague Dan Milmo
From the Times’ Daniel FinkelsteinFrom the Times’ Daniel Finkelstein
From BloombergFrom Bloomberg
This is undoubtedly the best news that Boris Johnson has had during the election campaign so far. It doesn’t mean that the result of the election is now a foregone conclusion, and it does not mean that a hung parliament is now impossible, as Nigel Farage claimed, but the result of an election in which the Brexit party is not standing in Tory seats will probably not be the same as an election in which it was splitting the Brexit vote in those constituencies.This is undoubtedly the best news that Boris Johnson has had during the election campaign so far. It doesn’t mean that the result of the election is now a foregone conclusion, and it does not mean that a hung parliament is now impossible, as Nigel Farage claimed, but the result of an election in which the Brexit party is not standing in Tory seats will probably not be the same as an election in which it was splitting the Brexit vote in those constituencies.
Only 11 days ago, when Farage announced that he would be standing candidates in around 600 seats in Britain, he was claiming that his tactic might harm Labour more than the Conservatives. At the time, election experts said he was wrong and that Tory seats were most at risk. Today Farage has admitted they were right, and he was wrong.Only 11 days ago, when Farage announced that he would be standing candidates in around 600 seats in Britain, he was claiming that his tactic might harm Labour more than the Conservatives. At the time, election experts said he was wrong and that Tory seats were most at risk. Today Farage has admitted they were right, and he was wrong.
But how much difference will this make in practice? It it hard to say, but two points are worth stressing. First, Farage is making this announcement because his poll ratings have been falling. He is capitulating from a position of weakness, not a position of strength. The polls have not shifted a great deal in the past week, but one constant feature is that the Brexit party vote has been heading south. Perhaps he was not as big a threat to the Tories as people thought. Here are the figures from the Guardian’s poll tracker.But how much difference will this make in practice? It it hard to say, but two points are worth stressing. First, Farage is making this announcement because his poll ratings have been falling. He is capitulating from a position of weakness, not a position of strength. The polls have not shifted a great deal in the past week, but one constant feature is that the Brexit party vote has been heading south. Perhaps he was not as big a threat to the Tories as people thought. Here are the figures from the Guardian’s poll tracker.
Second, the Brexit party still seems to be intent on standing candidates in Tory target seats - particularly the leave-leaning Labour seats in the north of England, where for a long time Farage has been saying his party could do well. In theory the Brexit party could still split the Brexit vote in these place, preventing Boris Johnson from making the gains he needs to win a majority. But it wouldn’t be in Farage’s interests to do this if he wants Johnson to have a majority, and so it seems more likely that, in reality, the Tories and the Brexit party will operate unofficial non-aggression pacts in these places, allowing the best placed party to challenge Labour. That would be what you would expect from a “leave alliance”, which is what he now says exists. (See 12.19pm.)Second, the Brexit party still seems to be intent on standing candidates in Tory target seats - particularly the leave-leaning Labour seats in the north of England, where for a long time Farage has been saying his party could do well. In theory the Brexit party could still split the Brexit vote in these place, preventing Boris Johnson from making the gains he needs to win a majority. But it wouldn’t be in Farage’s interests to do this if he wants Johnson to have a majority, and so it seems more likely that, in reality, the Tories and the Brexit party will operate unofficial non-aggression pacts in these places, allowing the best placed party to challenge Labour. That would be what you would expect from a “leave alliance”, which is what he now says exists. (See 12.19pm.)
Farage’s climbdown is considerable. Only 11 days ago he was saying that Johnson would have to abandon his Brexit plan wholesale for the Brexit party to give up its plan to stand 600 candidates in Britain. Since then, Johnson has said nothing that amounts to any form of concession, and the points the PM has been making about wanting to break free of EU regulation are ones he has always been making. And, as Farage himself acknowledged, the promise not to extend the transition beyond the end of 2020 is effectively worthless in the light of what happened to Johnson’s “die in the ditch” pledge to deliver Brexit by 31 October. The only face-saving offer from the PM was the fact that he posted a video last night making these points, effectively offering Farage a ladder down which he could climb. (See 12.13pm.) There is already speculation that Farage came under pressure to concede from Johnson’s ally, Donald Trump. This is from the Labour MP David Lammy.Farage’s climbdown is considerable. Only 11 days ago he was saying that Johnson would have to abandon his Brexit plan wholesale for the Brexit party to give up its plan to stand 600 candidates in Britain. Since then, Johnson has said nothing that amounts to any form of concession, and the points the PM has been making about wanting to break free of EU regulation are ones he has always been making. And, as Farage himself acknowledged, the promise not to extend the transition beyond the end of 2020 is effectively worthless in the light of what happened to Johnson’s “die in the ditch” pledge to deliver Brexit by 31 October. The only face-saving offer from the PM was the fact that he posted a video last night making these points, effectively offering Farage a ladder down which he could climb. (See 12.13pm.) There is already speculation that Farage came under pressure to concede from Johnson’s ally, Donald Trump. This is from the Labour MP David Lammy.
Farage’s announcement may also prompt the BBC and other broadcasters to reconsider how they cover the Brexit party during the campaign. The BBC had invited him to a seven-party debate, and to a Question Time special. And all broadcasters have been covering the party on the assumption it is a GB-wide party, fighting all seats. In the light of today’s news, we may see less of Farage on TV than before. That could further suppress his vote.Farage’s announcement may also prompt the BBC and other broadcasters to reconsider how they cover the Brexit party during the campaign. The BBC had invited him to a seven-party debate, and to a Question Time special. And all broadcasters have been covering the party on the assumption it is a GB-wide party, fighting all seats. In the light of today’s news, we may see less of Farage on TV than before. That could further suppress his vote.
One final point. Until relatively recently it was assumed that if the Tories tried to fight an election without having delivered Brexit, they would get smashed by the Brexit party. Almost all media commentators thought this, but so did Johnson himself, and probably Farage too. But that was another piece of conventional political wisdom (like the idea that Jeremy Corbyn could never win a Labour leadership contest) that turned out to be nonsense. You could cite this as proof that the Westminster commentariat are all rubbish (perhaps we are?), but it is probably better seen as evidence that voter behaviour is inherently unpredictable.One final point. Until relatively recently it was assumed that if the Tories tried to fight an election without having delivered Brexit, they would get smashed by the Brexit party. Almost all media commentators thought this, but so did Johnson himself, and probably Farage too. But that was another piece of conventional political wisdom (like the idea that Jeremy Corbyn could never win a Labour leadership contest) that turned out to be nonsense. You could cite this as proof that the Westminster commentariat are all rubbish (perhaps we are?), but it is probably better seen as evidence that voter behaviour is inherently unpredictable.
Farage says he is taking this decision to prevent the risk of a second Brexit referendum.Farage says he is taking this decision to prevent the risk of a second Brexit referendum.
He says that what he is announcing is, in practice, a leave alliance.He says that what he is announcing is, in practice, a leave alliance.
Farage says he weighed up Johnson’s promises against the threat that the Brexit party standing could let the Lib Dems in.Farage says he weighed up Johnson’s promises against the threat that the Brexit party standing could let the Lib Dems in.
Farage says the Brexit party will not stand against the Tories in the 317 seats they won in 2017.Farage says the Brexit party will not stand against the Tories in the 317 seats they won in 2017.
But it will concentrate its efforts on seats held by the Labour party.But it will concentrate its efforts on seats held by the Labour party.
And it will also challenge other remainer parties.And it will also challenge other remainer parties.