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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| UK GDP: Economy avoids recession despite weakest growth in a decade – business live | UK GDP: Economy avoids recession despite weakest growth in a decade – business live |
| (30 minutes later) | |
| Britain’s economy grew by 0.3% in the last quarter, after shrinking in Q2, but annual growth slowed to just 1% | Britain’s economy grew by 0.3% in the last quarter, after shrinking in Q2, but annual growth slowed to just 1% |
| Shares in UK banks and housebuilders are rallying in London, as fears of a hung parliament recede a little. | |
| Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group have both gained over 4%, as have building firms Persimmon and Barratt Development. | |
| Traders are calculating that Boris Johnson is strengthened by the Brexit Party’s decision today not to challenge Conservative candidates in seats they won two years ago. | |
| The pound is still holding its earlier gains, at six-month highs against the euro. | |
| But there’s still several weeks of electioneering to come, so plenty of time for twists and turns. | |
| Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, explains: | |
| Back on GDP.... Chris Giles of the Financial Times has done some impressive number crunching, to prove a couple of important points. | |
| 1) The growth rate of the UK economy has been slowing, slowly but steadily, over the last seventy years. | |
| 2) The UK lagged behind major rivals in the post-war period, before closing the gap after joining the European Common Market.... | |
| Over in New York, stocks have opened lower. | Over in New York, stocks have opened lower. |
| The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 139 points, or 0.5%, to 27,541. Trade war jitters are pulling Wall Street away from last Friday’s record closing high. | The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 139 points, or 0.5%, to 27,541. Trade war jitters are pulling Wall Street away from last Friday’s record closing high. |
| The broader S&P 500 index, and the tech-focused Nasdaq, are both down around 0.5%. | The broader S&P 500 index, and the tech-focused Nasdaq, are both down around 0.5%. |
| Investors are disappointed that Donald Trump denied agreeing to lift some tariffs on China last week, to help secure a Phase One trade deal. | Investors are disappointed that Donald Trump denied agreeing to lift some tariffs on China last week, to help secure a Phase One trade deal. |
| Jingye has issued a statement, saying it plans to invest £1.2bn in British Steel over the next decade. | Jingye has issued a statement, saying it plans to invest £1.2bn in British Steel over the next decade. |
| It also promised to make job offers to “as many employees as possible” across the group.... | It also promised to make job offers to “as many employees as possible” across the group.... |
| Newsflash: British Steel has been saved from closure, after a Chinese industrial giant agreed to buy the company’s assets. | Newsflash: British Steel has been saved from closure, after a Chinese industrial giant agreed to buy the company’s assets. |
| Jingye Steel is lifting British Steel out of liquidation, a move that could save thousands of jobs at sites including its blast furnace in Scunthorpe. | Jingye Steel is lifting British Steel out of liquidation, a move that could save thousands of jobs at sites including its blast furnace in Scunthorpe. |
| Here’s the official announcement from the Official Receiver: | Here’s the official announcement from the Official Receiver: |
| This move, if approved, would end six months of uncertainty, since British Steel fell into liquidation in May. | This move, if approved, would end six months of uncertainty, since British Steel fell into liquidation in May. |
| Britain’s growth was even slower once you adjust for population increases. | Britain’s growth was even slower once you adjust for population increases. |
| This chart shows how growth on a per capita basis has been weak in recent quarter (data here). | This chart shows how growth on a per capita basis has been weak in recent quarter (data here). |
| By my rough maths, GDP-per-capita only rose by 0.2% in the last quarter, slower than the headline increase of 0.3%. | By my rough maths, GDP-per-capita only rose by 0.2% in the last quarter, slower than the headline increase of 0.3%. |
| Officially, GDP-per-capita overtook its pre-crisis levels in 2015. | Officially, GDP-per-capita overtook its pre-crisis levels in 2015. |
| But... Alfie Sterling of the New Economics Foundation has calculated that living standards are still below 2008 levels, once you adjust for consumer price inflation [rather than using the ‘price deflator’ used by the ONS to remove the impact of rising prices on GDP]. | But... Alfie Sterling of the New Economics Foundation has calculated that living standards are still below 2008 levels, once you adjust for consumer price inflation [rather than using the ‘price deflator’ used by the ONS to remove the impact of rising prices on GDP]. |
| More here. | More here. |
| Sajid Javid is correct when he says that Britain is expected to grow faster than Japan, Italy and Germany in 2019 and 2020. | Sajid Javid is correct when he says that Britain is expected to grow faster than Japan, Italy and Germany in 2019 and 2020. |
| But that’s hardly impressive. Italy has been stagnating for years, Germany will probably tumble into recession on Thursday, and Japan’s export-driven economy has been hurt by the US-China trade war. | But that’s hardly impressive. Italy has been stagnating for years, Germany will probably tumble into recession on Thursday, and Japan’s export-driven economy has been hurt by the US-China trade war. |
| UK chancellor Sajid Javid has insisted that the UK economy is in good shape, despite annual growth slowing to a nine-year low. | UK chancellor Sajid Javid has insisted that the UK economy is in good shape, despite annual growth slowing to a nine-year low. |
| But he’s also cited ongoing uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the EU. | But he’s also cited ongoing uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the EU. |
| Javid told reporters: | Javid told reporters: |
| The chancellor cited “record high unemployment” and real wages growth, adding: | The chancellor cited “record high unemployment” and real wages growth, adding: |
| Q: But annual growth is now the weakest since 2010.... | Q: But annual growth is now the weakest since 2010.... |
| Javid blames “global factors”, pointing out that the IMF expect Britain to grow faster than Germany, Italy and Japan over the next couple of years. | Javid blames “global factors”, pointing out that the IMF expect Britain to grow faster than Germany, Italy and Japan over the next couple of years. |
| Here’s my colleague Phillip Inman on today’s growth figures: | Here’s my colleague Phillip Inman on today’s growth figures: |
| Here’s his full story: | Here’s his full story: |
| Nigel Farage’s decision not to run Brexit candidates in Conservative constituencies has also lifted the pound to a six-month high against the euro, at €1.168. | Nigel Farage’s decision not to run Brexit candidates in Conservative constituencies has also lifted the pound to a six-month high against the euro, at €1.168. |
| Traders are calculating that a hung parliament is now less likely. | Traders are calculating that a hung parliament is now less likely. |
| Neil Wilson of Markets.com explains: | Neil Wilson of Markets.com explains: |
| Back in the City, the pound has just jumped to a one-week high. | Back in the City, the pound has just jumped to a one-week high. |
| Sterling had already been lifted by the news that Britain had avoided recession. | Sterling had already been lifted by the news that Britain had avoided recession. |
| But the rally has accelerated in the last few minutes, as Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage announced he won’t contest the 317 seats which the Conservative party won in 2017. | But the rally has accelerated in the last few minutes, as Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage announced he won’t contest the 317 seats which the Conservative party won in 2017. |
| The pound is up a cent today, at $1.288. | The pound is up a cent today, at $1.288. |
| Farage’s move could be a significant boost to Boris Johnson’s chances of winning a majority in next month’s general election. | Farage’s move could be a significant boost to Boris Johnson’s chances of winning a majority in next month’s general election. |
| But, he’s not (yet anyway) pledged to withdraw from Tory target seats.... | But, he’s not (yet anyway) pledged to withdraw from Tory target seats.... |
| Our Politics Live blog has all the details: | Our Politics Live blog has all the details: |
| Worryingly, business investment has fizzled out in the last couple of year.s | Worryingly, business investment has fizzled out in the last couple of year.s |
| The ONS reports that it was flat in the last quarter alone, but has shrunk in five of the last eight quarters: | The ONS reports that it was flat in the last quarter alone, but has shrunk in five of the last eight quarters: |
| Britain’s economy is now paying the price of years of austerity, argues TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady: | Britain’s economy is now paying the price of years of austerity, argues TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady: |
| Britain’s economy benefited from a boom in UK-based film and TV production in the last quarter, the ONS says. | Britain’s economy benefited from a boom in UK-based film and TV production in the last quarter, the ONS says. |
| That helped the wider information and communication industry to grow by 0.8% in the last quarter, nearly three times faster than the wider economy. | That helped the wider information and communication industry to grow by 0.8% in the last quarter, nearly three times faster than the wider economy. |
| Kallum Pickering of German bank Berenberg has crunched today’s GDP data, to show that UK growth has fallen steadily since the EU referendum | Kallum Pickering of German bank Berenberg has crunched today’s GDP data, to show that UK growth has fallen steadily since the EU referendum |
| He also sent these charts over: | He also sent these charts over: |
| Today’s GDP report shows that private consumption, government spending and net trade all made a positive contribution to growth. | Today’s GDP report shows that private consumption, government spending and net trade all made a positive contribution to growth. |
| But ‘gross fixed capital formation’ (a broad measure of investment) contracted in Q3, and manufacturing has also shrunk over the last six months. | But ‘gross fixed capital formation’ (a broad measure of investment) contracted in Q3, and manufacturing has also shrunk over the last six months. |
| John McDonnell, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, isn’t impressed that the UK economy has barely grown over the last six months: | John McDonnell, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, isn’t impressed that the UK economy has barely grown over the last six months: |
| This chart shows how Britain’s annual growth rate has slumped to a nine-year low (the blue line) despite growth picking up in the last quarter (the red bars). | This chart shows how Britain’s annual growth rate has slumped to a nine-year low (the blue line) despite growth picking up in the last quarter (the red bars). |