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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/nov/11/uk-gdp-economy-growth-recession-brexit-pound-services-manufacturing-business-live
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| Version 4 | Version 5 |
|---|---|
| UK GDP: Economy avoids recession despite weakest growth in a decade – as it happened | UK GDP: Economy avoids recession despite weakest growth in a decade – as it happened |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Britain’s economy grew by 0.3% in the last quarter, after shrinking in Q2, but annual growth slowed to just 1% | Britain’s economy grew by 0.3% in the last quarter, after shrinking in Q2, but annual growth slowed to just 1% |
| Finally, the FTSE 100 index of top UK shares has closed 30 points lower at 7,328. | |
| Multinationals and major exporters were hit by the strengthening pound, although banks and house builders held onto their gains. | Multinationals and major exporters were hit by the strengthening pound, although banks and house builders held onto their gains. |
| Construction was one of the bright spots in the UK economy in the last quarter, growing by 0.6%. | Construction was one of the bright spots in the UK economy in the last quarter, growing by 0.6%. |
| But economic uncertainty threatens to pull the sector back again. | But economic uncertainty threatens to pull the sector back again. |
| Clive Docwra, Managing Director of construction consulting and design agency McBains, explains; | Clive Docwra, Managing Director of construction consulting and design agency McBains, explains; |
| Business owners from construction, manufacturing and TV have told us how they’re coping through the slowdown: | Business owners from construction, manufacturing and TV have told us how they’re coping through the slowdown: |
| Shares in UK banks and housebuilders are rallying in London, as fears of a hung parliament recede a little. | Shares in UK banks and housebuilders are rallying in London, as fears of a hung parliament recede a little. |
| Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group have both gained over 4%, as have building firms Persimmon and Barratt Development. | Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group have both gained over 4%, as have building firms Persimmon and Barratt Development. |
| Traders are calculating that Boris Johnson is strengthened by the Brexit Party’s decision today not to challenge Conservative candidates in seats they won two years ago. | Traders are calculating that Boris Johnson is strengthened by the Brexit Party’s decision today not to challenge Conservative candidates in seats they won two years ago. |
| The pound is still holding its earlier gains, at six-month highs against the euro. | The pound is still holding its earlier gains, at six-month highs against the euro. |
| But there’s still several weeks of electioneering to come, so plenty of time for twists and turns. | But there’s still several weeks of electioneering to come, so plenty of time for twists and turns. |
| Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, explains: | Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, explains: |
| Back on GDP.... Chris Giles of the Financial Times has done some impressive number crunching, to prove a couple of important points. | Back on GDP.... Chris Giles of the Financial Times has done some impressive number crunching, to prove a couple of important points. |
| 1) The growth rate of the UK economy has been slowing, slowly but steadily, over the last seventy years. | 1) The growth rate of the UK economy has been slowing, slowly but steadily, over the last seventy years. |
| 2) The UK lagged behind major rivals in the post-war period, before closing the gap after joining the European Common Market.... | 2) The UK lagged behind major rivals in the post-war period, before closing the gap after joining the European Common Market.... |
| Over in New York, stocks have opened lower. | Over in New York, stocks have opened lower. |
| The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 139 points, or 0.5%, to 27,541. Trade war jitters are pulling Wall Street away from last Friday’s record closing high. | The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped by 139 points, or 0.5%, to 27,541. Trade war jitters are pulling Wall Street away from last Friday’s record closing high. |
| The broader S&P 500 index, and the tech-focused Nasdaq, are both down around 0.5%. | The broader S&P 500 index, and the tech-focused Nasdaq, are both down around 0.5%. |
| Investors are disappointed that Donald Trump denied agreeing to lift some tariffs on China last week, to help secure a Phase One trade deal. | Investors are disappointed that Donald Trump denied agreeing to lift some tariffs on China last week, to help secure a Phase One trade deal. |
| Jingye has issued a statement, saying it plans to invest £1.2bn in British Steel over the next decade. | Jingye has issued a statement, saying it plans to invest £1.2bn in British Steel over the next decade. |
| It also promised to make job offers to “as many employees as possible” across the group.... | It also promised to make job offers to “as many employees as possible” across the group.... |
| Newsflash: British Steel has been saved from closure, after a Chinese industrial giant agreed to buy the company’s assets. | Newsflash: British Steel has been saved from closure, after a Chinese industrial giant agreed to buy the company’s assets. |
| Jingye Steel is lifting British Steel out of liquidation, a move that could save thousands of jobs at sites including its blast furnace in Scunthorpe. | Jingye Steel is lifting British Steel out of liquidation, a move that could save thousands of jobs at sites including its blast furnace in Scunthorpe. |
| Here’s the official announcement from the Official Receiver: | Here’s the official announcement from the Official Receiver: |
| This move, if approved, would end six months of uncertainty, since British Steel fell into liquidation in May. | This move, if approved, would end six months of uncertainty, since British Steel fell into liquidation in May. |
| Britain’s growth was even slower once you adjust for population increases. | Britain’s growth was even slower once you adjust for population increases. |
| This chart shows how growth on a per capita basis has been weak in recent quarter (data here). | This chart shows how growth on a per capita basis has been weak in recent quarter (data here). |
| By my rough maths, GDP-per-capita only rose by 0.2% in the last quarter, slower than the headline increase of 0.3%. | By my rough maths, GDP-per-capita only rose by 0.2% in the last quarter, slower than the headline increase of 0.3%. |
| Officially, GDP-per-capita overtook its pre-crisis levels in 2015. | Officially, GDP-per-capita overtook its pre-crisis levels in 2015. |
| But... Alfie Sterling of the New Economics Foundation has calculated that living standards are still below 2008 levels, once you adjust for consumer price inflation [rather than using the ‘price deflator’ used by the ONS to remove the impact of rising prices on GDP]. | But... Alfie Sterling of the New Economics Foundation has calculated that living standards are still below 2008 levels, once you adjust for consumer price inflation [rather than using the ‘price deflator’ used by the ONS to remove the impact of rising prices on GDP]. |
| More here. | More here. |
| Sajid Javid is correct when he says that Britain is expected to grow faster than Japan, Italy and Germany in 2019 and 2020. | Sajid Javid is correct when he says that Britain is expected to grow faster than Japan, Italy and Germany in 2019 and 2020. |
| But that’s hardly impressive. Italy has been stagnating for years, Germany will probably tumble into recession on Thursday, and Japan’s export-driven economy has been hurt by the US-China trade war. | But that’s hardly impressive. Italy has been stagnating for years, Germany will probably tumble into recession on Thursday, and Japan’s export-driven economy has been hurt by the US-China trade war. |
| UK chancellor Sajid Javid has insisted that the UK economy is in good shape, despite annual growth slowing to a nine-year low. | UK chancellor Sajid Javid has insisted that the UK economy is in good shape, despite annual growth slowing to a nine-year low. |
| But he’s also cited ongoing uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the EU. | But he’s also cited ongoing uncertainty over Britain’s departure from the EU. |
| Javid told reporters: | Javid told reporters: |
| The chancellor cited “record high unemployment” and real wages growth, adding: | The chancellor cited “record high unemployment” and real wages growth, adding: |
| Q: But annual growth is now the weakest since 2010.... | Q: But annual growth is now the weakest since 2010.... |
| Javid blames “global factors”, pointing out that the IMF expect Britain to grow faster than Germany, Italy and Japan over the next couple of years. | Javid blames “global factors”, pointing out that the IMF expect Britain to grow faster than Germany, Italy and Japan over the next couple of years. |