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| Germany downplays stimulus hopes as economy escapes recession - business live | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including German GDP for the last quarter | Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including German GDP for the last quarter |
| The number of Americans filing new employment claims has risen. | |
| The US initial claims total jumped to 225,000 people last week, up from 211,000 in the previous seven days. | |
| That’s 10,000 more than economists expected, although still low in historic terms. | |
| Newsflash: Germany’s finance minister has just dampened hopes of a new stimulus package to support growth. | Newsflash: Germany’s finance minister has just dampened hopes of a new stimulus package to support growth. |
| Olaf Scholz told a conference in Berlin, organised by Bloomberg, that Germany was not in an economic crisis. As such, there is no immediate need for a spending boost, he argued. | Olaf Scholz told a conference in Berlin, organised by Bloomberg, that Germany was not in an economic crisis. As such, there is no immediate need for a spending boost, he argued. |
| Scholz told a Bloomberg conference in Berlin: | Scholz told a Bloomberg conference in Berlin: |
| Andreas Steno Larsen of Nordea Markets reckons Scholz is giving a clear signal that Berlin won’t bow to pressure. | Andreas Steno Larsen of Nordea Markets reckons Scholz is giving a clear signal that Berlin won’t bow to pressure. |
| Germany is certainly in a better state than Britain in 1979, and PM Jim Callaghan’s famous “Crisis? What Crisis?” Sun front page. | Germany is certainly in a better state than Britain in 1979, and PM Jim Callaghan’s famous “Crisis? What Crisis?” Sun front page. |
| (Callaghan actually said “I don’t think other people in the world would share the view there is mounting chaos”, but that wasn’t such a good headline). | (Callaghan actually said “I don’t think other people in the world would share the view there is mounting chaos”, but that wasn’t such a good headline). |
| Here’s our news story on the UK retail sales slowdown: | Here’s our news story on the UK retail sales slowdown: |
| Most advanced economies has now reported growth figures for the last quarter (although we’re still waiting for Canada!). | Most advanced economies has now reported growth figures for the last quarter (although we’re still waiting for Canada!). |
| Germany, despite avoiding recession, is one of the weakest performers in July-September. | Germany, despite avoiding recession, is one of the weakest performers in July-September. |
| Here’s a selection of the latest quarterly growth figures. | Here’s a selection of the latest quarterly growth figures. |
| US: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter | US: +0.5% quarter-on-quarter |
| Spain: +0.4% q/q | Spain: +0.4% q/q |
| The Netherlands: +0.4% q/q | The Netherlands: +0.4% q/q |
| UK: +0.3% q/q | UK: +0.3% q/q |
| France: +0.3% q/q | France: +0.3% q/q |
| Italy: +0.1% q/q | Italy: +0.1% q/q |
| Germany: +0.1% q/q | Germany: +0.1% q/q |
| Japan: +0.1% q/q | Japan: +0.1% q/q |
| Economist Rupert Seggins has pulled together the year-on-year growth figures: | Economist Rupert Seggins has pulled together the year-on-year growth figures: |
| European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis De Guindos has predicted there’s a “very low” risk of a eurozone recession, now that Germany has returned to growth. | European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis De Guindos has predicted there’s a “very low” risk of a eurozone recession, now that Germany has returned to growth. |
| However, he also fears that growth could remain below potential, unless governments step up and do more. | However, he also fears that growth could remain below potential, unless governments step up and do more. |
| Reuters has the details. | Reuters has the details. |
| Here’s a round-up of reaction to Germany’s economy growing by 0.1% in the last quarter, avoiding the recession which many analysts expected. | Here’s a round-up of reaction to Germany’s economy growing by 0.1% in the last quarter, avoiding the recession which many analysts expected. |
| Dr. Kerstin Braun, President of Stenn Group. | Dr. Kerstin Braun, President of Stenn Group. |
| Ana Andrade, analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit: | Ana Andrade, analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit: |
| Matthew Cady, Investment Strategist at Brooks Macdonald: | Matthew Cady, Investment Strategist at Brooks Macdonald: |
| Japan’s economy has also been hit by the US-China trade war and the weakening global economy. | Japan’s economy has also been hit by the US-China trade war and the weakening global economy. |
| Data released overnight showed that the world’s third-largest economy grew an annualized rate of just 0.2 percent -- or 0.1% during the quarter. | Data released overnight showed that the world’s third-largest economy grew an annualized rate of just 0.2 percent -- or 0.1% during the quarter. |
| That’s down from 1.8% annualised growth in April to June. | That’s down from 1.8% annualised growth in April to June. |
| Just in: The eurozone grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of the year, helped by the modest recovery in Germany. | Just in: The eurozone grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of the year, helped by the modest recovery in Germany. |
| That’s according to the latest GDP report from Eurostat, which confirms last month’s ‘flash estimate’. | That’s according to the latest GDP report from Eurostat, which confirms last month’s ‘flash estimate’. |
| This matches the 0.2% growth recorded in the second quarter of 2019, but weaker than the 0.4% seen in Q1. | This matches the 0.2% growth recorded in the second quarter of 2019, but weaker than the 0.4% seen in Q1. |
| Just in: UK retail sales were weaker than expected last month. | Just in: UK retail sales were weaker than expected last month. |
| Retail sales volumes fell by 0.1% during October, the Office for National Statistics says. Economists had expected a rise of 0.2%. Strip out petrol, and volumes were down 0.3%. | Retail sales volumes fell by 0.1% during October, the Office for National Statistics says. Economists had expected a rise of 0.2%. Strip out petrol, and volumes were down 0.3%. |
| Over the last quarter, retail sales were only 0.2% higher, with food sales the only sector that rose. That implying UK consumers have been reluctant to spend on big-ticket items or discretionary goods. | Over the last quarter, retail sales were only 0.2% higher, with food sales the only sector that rose. That implying UK consumers have been reluctant to spend on big-ticket items or discretionary goods. |
| NEWSFLASH: UK services company G4S has been sensationally blacklisted by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, for human rights abuses. | NEWSFLASH: UK services company G4S has been sensationally blacklisted by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, for human rights abuses. |
| In a stinging rebuke, the Norway’s Council of Ethics said the company was contributing to “systematic human rights violations” of migrant workers in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. | In a stinging rebuke, the Norway’s Council of Ethics said the company was contributing to “systematic human rights violations” of migrant workers in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. |
| The Council, which monitors investments in Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), says: | The Council, which monitors investments in Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG), says: |
| Here’s the story: | Here’s the story: |
| The GPFG has blacklisted companies before, often because they damage the climate or produce tobacco or coal. | The GPFG has blacklisted companies before, often because they damage the climate or produce tobacco or coal. |
| Last month, the Guardian reported that hundreds of migrant workers were dying in Qatar each month from heat stress. Many have been toiling to build the infrastructure for the 2022 football World Cup: | Last month, the Guardian reported that hundreds of migrant workers were dying in Qatar each month from heat stress. Many have been toiling to build the infrastructure for the 2022 football World Cup: |
| Car giant Daimler has highlighted the challenges in Germany’s economy, by announcing major job cuts. | Car giant Daimler has highlighted the challenges in Germany’s economy, by announcing major job cuts. |
| My colleague Jasper Jolly explains: | My colleague Jasper Jolly explains: |