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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/nov/14/germany-avoids-recession-growth-gdp-euro-brexit-markets-retail-sales-business-live
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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| Germany avoids recession with surprise return to growth – business live | Germany avoids recession with surprise return to growth – business live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including German GDP for the last quarter | Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including German GDP for the last quarter |
| Germany’s escape from recession is being overshadowed by weak economic data from China. | |
| Fixed asset investment growth has fallen to its lowest level on record, at 5.2%, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. That suggests companies are reluctant to invest. | |
| Industrial production growth only rose by 4.7%, below forecasts, as the trade war with the US bites. | |
| Retail sales growth dropped to a 16-year low too, implying consumers are more cautious. | |
| There are some signs that Germany’s economy could pick up, having effectively stagnated for the last six months, says Lee Hardman of Japanese bank MUFG. | There are some signs that Germany’s economy could pick up, having effectively stagnated for the last six months, says Lee Hardman of Japanese bank MUFG. |
| He tells clients: | He tells clients: |
| Germany’s car sector is dragging the economy back, warns Deka bank analyst Andreas Scheuerle. | Germany’s car sector is dragging the economy back, warns Deka bank analyst Andreas Scheuerle. |
| He says (via Reuters): | He says (via Reuters): |
| Germany’s government isn’t popping the champagne corks, despite avoiding the ignominy of recession this morning. | Germany’s government isn’t popping the champagne corks, despite avoiding the ignominy of recession this morning. |
| Economy minister Peter Altmaier has warned that growth is still too low, telling the ARD TV station that: | Economy minister Peter Altmaier has warned that growth is still too low, telling the ARD TV station that: |
| Carsten Brzeski, European economist at ING, says Germany’s economy is effectively stagnating -- despite dodging recession this morning. | Carsten Brzeski, European economist at ING, says Germany’s economy is effectively stagnating -- despite dodging recession this morning. |
| He points out that German manufacturers, once a powerhouse of the EU, are really struggling: | He points out that German manufacturers, once a powerhouse of the EU, are really struggling: |
| Brzeski also fears that Germany could struggle next year too. | Brzeski also fears that Germany could struggle next year too. |
| Economists are pleased to see that Europe’s largest economy has dodged recession. | Economists are pleased to see that Europe’s largest economy has dodged recession. |
| However, Fred Dukrozet of Swiss bank Pictet points out that it was pretty close -- Germany actually only grew by 0.08% in the last three months. | However, Fred Dukrozet of Swiss bank Pictet points out that it was pretty close -- Germany actually only grew by 0.08% in the last three months. |
| Increased spending by German consumers and government bodies helped to drag its economy out of recession, today’s GDP report shows. | Increased spending by German consumers and government bodies helped to drag its economy out of recession, today’s GDP report shows. |
| Exports have also picked up, despite trade tensions, helping the economy to expand by 0.1%. | Exports have also picked up, despite trade tensions, helping the economy to expand by 0.1%. |
| However, investment at German factories has fallen. | However, investment at German factories has fallen. |
| Statistics body Destatis says: | Statistics body Destatis says: |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| It’s a particularly Guten Morgen in Germany today. The economy has just avoided recession with a surprise return to growth in July to September. | It’s a particularly Guten Morgen in Germany today. The economy has just avoided recession with a surprise return to growth in July to September. |
| Germany has defied the doom mongers by expanding its GDP by 0.1% in the third quarter of this year, new data shows. | Germany has defied the doom mongers by expanding its GDP by 0.1% in the third quarter of this year, new data shows. |
| That means Europe’s largest economy has stopped contracting, after suffering a 0.2% contraction in April-June (that’s just been revised down from a 0.1% fall). | That means Europe’s largest economy has stopped contracting, after suffering a 0.2% contraction in April-June (that’s just been revised down from a 0.1% fall). |
| This is welcome news for Europe’s economy, as it battles a global slowdown, Brexit uncertainty, and the spillover effects of the US-China trade war. | This is welcome news for Europe’s economy, as it battles a global slowdown, Brexit uncertainty, and the spillover effects of the US-China trade war. |
| Economists had predicted that German GDP would fall again in Q3, by around 0.1%. But it appears that household spending had helped overcome the weakness in German factories. | Economists had predicted that German GDP would fall again in Q3, by around 0.1%. But it appears that household spending had helped overcome the weakness in German factories. |
| On an annual basis, Germany’s economy has grown by just 1% in the last year - or just 0.5% on a ‘price and calendar adjusted basis’. | |
| Detail and reaction to follow.... | Detail and reaction to follow.... |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 9.30am GMT: UK retail sales for October | 9.30am GMT: UK retail sales for October |
| 10am GMT: Eurozone GDP for Q3 2019 | 10am GMT: Eurozone GDP for Q3 2019 |
| 11am GMT: ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks in Frankfurt | 11am GMT: ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks in Frankfurt |
| 1.30pm GMT: US weekly jobless figures | 1.30pm GMT: US weekly jobless figures |