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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/dec/04/trade-war-trump-china-deal-markets-uk-services-sector-economy-business-live
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| Trade war: Trump's threats jolt markets as hopes of China deal fade - business live | Trade war: Trump's threats jolt markets as hopes of China deal fade - business live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news | Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news |
| Heads-up. | |
| Bloomberg is reporting that Washington and Beijing are making progress towards a trade deal. | |
| It says: | |
| That’s not what Donald Trump was suggesting yesterday... perhaps the market slump has unblocked negotiations? | |
| The eurozone’s private sector had a lacklustre November. | |
| The composite PMI, which measures activity across service sector firms and manufacturers, was unchanged at 50.6 -- showing modest growth. | |
| The latest economic data from Hong Kong is an absolute shocker. | |
| Private sector activity slumped alarmingly last month, at the fastest rate since the Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus crisis gripped the city, causing hundreds of deaths. | |
| Data firm Markit says its Hong Kong PMI, slumped to just 38.5 in November, from 39.3. Any reading over 50 shows growth, and a sub-40 reading suggest a sharp downturn. | |
| We already knew that the pro-democracy demonstrations, and the clashes with security forces, pushed Hong Kong into recession in the last quarter. Clearly there’s no sign of recovery. | |
| Bernard Aw, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, said: | |
| Away from trade, we have bleak news from the UK high street | |
| Fast fashion chain Quiz has warned it could close a swathe of stores, after slumping into a £6.8m loss in the last six month. It blames the decline in visitors to physical stores, and hinted that it could close loss-making outlets when its leases expire. | |
| The Chinese government has hit back against Donald Trump’s criticism. | |
| At a press briefing, China’s foreign ministry warned that Beijing will take “the necessary countermeasures” to defend its interests. That sounds like a warning shot to Washington not to implement the tariffs planned for 15 December. | |
| After tumbling on Monday and Tuesday, European stock markets are attempting to clamber off the mat this morning. | After tumbling on Monday and Tuesday, European stock markets are attempting to clamber off the mat this morning. |
| The Stoxx 600 index, which includes the largest EU companies, has gained 0.4% - which recovers a chunk of yesterday’s losses. | The Stoxx 600 index, which includes the largest EU companies, has gained 0.4% - which recovers a chunk of yesterday’s losses. |
| The FTSE 100, though is flat, with a strengthening pound hitting multinationals. | The FTSE 100, though is flat, with a strengthening pound hitting multinationals. |
| Mohamed Zidan, chief market strategist at ThinkMarkets, says traders remain nervous: | Mohamed Zidan, chief market strategist at ThinkMarkets, says traders remain nervous: |
| Many parents look to their sons-in-law for help, perhaps with a tricky computing problem or a DIY task. | Many parents look to their sons-in-law for help, perhaps with a tricky computing problem or a DIY task. |
| Donald Trump, though, is turning to his eldest daughter’s husband to resolve the China trade war! | Donald Trump, though, is turning to his eldest daughter’s husband to resolve the China trade war! |
| According to Reuters, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, has taken a more direct involvement in the negotiations with China over the past two weeks. Kushner does have experience of trade, having worked on the US-Mexico-Canada agreement hammered out a year ago. | According to Reuters, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, has taken a more direct involvement in the negotiations with China over the past two weeks. Kushner does have experience of trade, having worked on the US-Mexico-Canada agreement hammered out a year ago. |
| Reuters says: | Reuters says: |
| Neil Wilson of Markets.com has sent over some salient points about the trade war situation, and how investors may react. | Neil Wilson of Markets.com has sent over some salient points about the trade war situation, and how investors may react. |
| Markets are discounting a trade deal with China being done this year, but it’s still not impossible. The caprice of Trump means, as we have consistently stressed, anything can happen. | Markets are discounting a trade deal with China being done this year, but it’s still not impossible. The caprice of Trump means, as we have consistently stressed, anything can happen. |
| An EU-US tit-for-tat trade war is a risk but not to be overplayed yet – most think it can be avoided | An EU-US tit-for-tat trade war is a risk but not to be overplayed yet – most think it can be avoided |
| Global equities have had a good run this year – there is still plenty of profit taking that could occur in the run-up to Christmas- do we see a repeat of last year and the ‘nightmare on Wall Street before Christmas’? | Global equities have had a good run this year – there is still plenty of profit taking that could occur in the run-up to Christmas- do we see a repeat of last year and the ‘nightmare on Wall Street before Christmas’? |
| The market, and Trump, ultimately know the Fed has their back. Pullbacks are to be expected as the market drifts higher and higher | The market, and Trump, ultimately know the Fed has their back. Pullbacks are to be expected as the market drifts higher and higher |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| The season of goodwill may be approaching, but clearly no-one told Donald Trump. | The season of goodwill may be approaching, but clearly no-one told Donald Trump. |
| The US president has spooked investors around the globe with a series of attacks on other nations, including some close allies, as he threatens to escalate his trade war. | The US president has spooked investors around the globe with a series of attacks on other nations, including some close allies, as he threatens to escalate his trade war. |
| Fresh from threatening France with tariffs on cheese and champagne, Trump hinted that he could use trade as a weapon to force NATO members to spend more on defence. | Fresh from threatening France with tariffs on cheese and champagne, Trump hinted that he could use trade as a weapon to force NATO members to spend more on defence. |
| But markets were really riled when the president suggested that he might wait to agree a trade deal with China until after the 2020 presidential election - a whole year away. A negotiating tactic, or an admission that talks behind the scenes are floundering? | But markets were really riled when the president suggested that he might wait to agree a trade deal with China until after the 2020 presidential election - a whole year away. A negotiating tactic, or an admission that talks behind the scenes are floundering? |
| Either way, Trump’s words sent stocks sliding in London and New York last night, with Britain’s FTSE sinking 127 points to a two-month low of 7158. | Either way, Trump’s words sent stocks sliding in London and New York last night, with Britain’s FTSE sinking 127 points to a two-month low of 7158. |
| We might see a small recovery this morning, but the mood in the City is rather unfestive. | We might see a small recovery this morning, but the mood in the City is rather unfestive. |
| Traders are concerned that America will impose fresh tariffs on China on December 15. Previously, there was hope that Washington would waive them, to help secure a Phase One deal with Beijing. | Traders are concerned that America will impose fresh tariffs on China on December 15. Previously, there was hope that Washington would waive them, to help secure a Phase One deal with Beijing. |
| The mood has totally changed in a couple of days, from optimism to pessimism. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank tells clients this morning: | The mood has totally changed in a couple of days, from optimism to pessimism. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank tells clients this morning: |
| Stocks in Asia-Pacific markets have already been hit, extending earlier losses this week. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, which is vulnerable to a slowdown in China, has shed more than 1%. | Stocks in Asia-Pacific markets have already been hit, extending earlier losses this week. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, which is vulnerable to a slowdown in China, has shed more than 1%. |
| Commodity prices are also being hammered, on concerns that global growth will be hurt by an escalating trade war. | Commodity prices are also being hammered, on concerns that global growth will be hurt by an escalating trade war. |
| The most-traded nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has crumbled by over 4%. | The most-traded nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has crumbled by over 4%. |
| Gold, though, is rising, as nervous investors look for a safe haven for their cash. | Gold, though, is rising, as nervous investors look for a safe haven for their cash. |
| Also coming up today | Also coming up today |
| Data firm Markit publishes its PMI surveys for the world’s service sector companies today. | Data firm Markit publishes its PMI surveys for the world’s service sector companies today. |
| The ‘flash’ estimates released two weeks ago were poor, and suggested Britain’s services sector contracted during November. So today’s ‘final PMI’ report could show that the UK economy is shrinking again..... | The ‘flash’ estimates released two weeks ago were poor, and suggested Britain’s services sector contracted during November. So today’s ‘final PMI’ report could show that the UK economy is shrinking again..... |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 9am GMT: Eurozone services PMI for November | 9am GMT: Eurozone services PMI for November |
| 9.30am GMT: UK services PMI for November | 9.30am GMT: UK services PMI for November |
| 3pm GMT: US services PMI for November | 3pm GMT: US services PMI for November |
| 3pm GMT: Bank of Canada interest rate decision | 3pm GMT: Bank of Canada interest rate decision |