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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/dec/04/trade-war-trump-china-deal-markets-uk-services-sector-economy-business-live
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| Pound hits seven-month high; trade deal hopes lift markets – business | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news | Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news |
| Newsflash: Rather fewer jobs were created at American companies last month than expected, a new report shows. | |
| The ADP payroll, which measures US employment, has risen by 67,000 in November, much weaker than the 140,000 which Wall Street expected. | |
| October’s payroll has been revised lower too, to 121,000 from 125,000. | |
| This might be a sign that the US economy is losing momentum; we’ll get a better picture on Friday, when the broader Non-Farm Payroll survey of US labor is released. | |
| Sterling is continuing to climb, and is now up a whole cent today at $1.309. | Sterling is continuing to climb, and is now up a whole cent today at $1.309. |
| That’s a new seven-month high against the US dollar, the strongest position since May 7th. | That’s a new seven-month high against the US dollar, the strongest position since May 7th. |
| Aviation News: Budget airline Ryanair is planning to close two bases, due to the ongoing delays to Boeing’s 737 MAX jet. | Aviation News: Budget airline Ryanair is planning to close two bases, due to the ongoing delays to Boeing’s 737 MAX jet. |
| Ryanair says it now expects to only receive 10 737 MAX aircraft in time for next summer, not the 20 previously expected. That means it will carry a million fewer passengers -- 156m, not 157m -- and force it to shutter operations at Nuremberg and Stockholm Skavsta. | Ryanair says it now expects to only receive 10 737 MAX aircraft in time for next summer, not the 20 previously expected. That means it will carry a million fewer passengers -- 156m, not 157m -- and force it to shutter operations at Nuremberg and Stockholm Skavsta. |
| Boeing is still trying to get the 737 Max recertified, following the two fatal crashes blamed on a flawed anti-stall mechanism. | Boeing is still trying to get the 737 Max recertified, following the two fatal crashes blamed on a flawed anti-stall mechanism. |
| John Goldie, FX Dealer at Argentex Group, predicts the pound could rise to at least $1.33 if Johnson wins a majority next week. | John Goldie, FX Dealer at Argentex Group, predicts the pound could rise to at least $1.33 if Johnson wins a majority next week. |
| But victory isn’t assured, so sterling could yet slide back to $1.25, Goldie suggests. | But victory isn’t assured, so sterling could yet slide back to $1.25, Goldie suggests. |
| Here’s a clip of Rosenthal picking out the crossbar when it was rather easier to score.... | Here’s a clip of Rosenthal picking out the crossbar when it was rather easier to score.... |
| Pollsters, such as YouGov, have been giving the Conservatives a solid lead in the polls for months. | Pollsters, such as YouGov, have been giving the Conservatives a solid lead in the polls for months. |
| But Boris Johnson has suggested that the race is ‘very tight’. That could just be a message designed to get the vote out next Thursday... | But Boris Johnson has suggested that the race is ‘very tight’. That could just be a message designed to get the vote out next Thursday... |
| ...or it could reflect memories of 2017, when Theresa May lost her majority despite beginning her election campaign with a big lead. | ...or it could reflect memories of 2017, when Theresa May lost her majority despite beginning her election campaign with a big lead. |
| Wall Street is expected to recover yesterday’s slump too, thanks to Bloomberg’s report that a US-China trade deal could still happen soon. | Wall Street is expected to recover yesterday’s slump too, thanks to Bloomberg’s report that a US-China trade deal could still happen soon. |
| Sterling is also climbing against the euro, hitting a near-nine month high of €1.1786. | Sterling is also climbing against the euro, hitting a near-nine month high of €1.1786. |
| That’s because Boris Johnson appears to be on track for victory in next week’s election, says Dean Turner, economist at UBS Wealth Management. | That’s because Boris Johnson appears to be on track for victory in next week’s election, says Dean Turner, economist at UBS Wealth Management. |
| But with a week’s campaigning to go, nothing is certain. Turner writes: | But with a week’s campaigning to go, nothing is certain. Turner writes: |
| The pound has hit its highest level in seven months, as City traders show increased confidence that Boris Johnson will win next week’s general election. | The pound has hit its highest level in seven months, as City traders show increased confidence that Boris Johnson will win next week’s general election. |
| Sterling has jumped to $1.3039, up nearly half a cent, to levels not seen since May 2019. | Sterling has jumped to $1.3039, up nearly half a cent, to levels not seen since May 2019. |
| Traders appear to be reacting to the latest Sky News/YouGov poll, which gave the Conservatives a nine-point lead ahead of Thursday’s general election. | Traders appear to be reacting to the latest Sky News/YouGov poll, which gave the Conservatives a nine-point lead ahead of Thursday’s general election. |
| The poll puts the Tories on 42%, Labour on 33%, the Liberal Democrats are on 12%, and Brexit Party is on 4%, up two points. | The poll puts the Tories on 42%, Labour on 33%, the Liberal Democrats are on 12%, and Brexit Party is on 4%, up two points. |
| The City fears another hung parliament, which could mean more deadlock and possible a disorderly Brexit. So this polling is pushing the pound up. | The City fears another hung parliament, which could mean more deadlock and possible a disorderly Brexit. So this polling is pushing the pound up. |
| Rupert Thompson, Head of Research at Kingswood, says investor confidence in a Conservative victory has grown. | Rupert Thompson, Head of Research at Kingswood, says investor confidence in a Conservative victory has grown. |
| But even at todays levels, the pound is still some 13% weaker than before the Brexit vote three years ago. | But even at todays levels, the pound is still some 13% weaker than before the Brexit vote three years ago. |
| Thompson explains: | Thompson explains: |
| In a surprise twist, European stock markets are all rallying.... as hopes of a US-China trade deal grow again. | In a surprise twist, European stock markets are all rallying.... as hopes of a US-China trade deal grow again. |
| Every index is up, with France, Italy andGermany rallying by over 1%, after unnamed sources claimed that Donald Trump had painted a too-gloomy picture of negotiations yesterday. | Every index is up, with France, Italy andGermany rallying by over 1%, after unnamed sources claimed that Donald Trump had painted a too-gloomy picture of negotiations yesterday. |
| According to these insiders, a deal could still be reached this month. | According to these insiders, a deal could still be reached this month. |
| Bloomberg has the details: | Bloomberg has the details: |
| Andy Bruce of Reuters shows how UK service sector growth has fizzled out this year: | Andy Bruce of Reuters shows how UK service sector growth has fizzled out this year: |
| If today’s PMIs are accurate, they suggest the UK could be sliding back to the brink of recession. | If today’s PMIs are accurate, they suggest the UK could be sliding back to the brink of recession. |
| Howard Archer of EY Item Club is revising down his hopes for growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, having seen November’s gloomy PMIs. | Howard Archer of EY Item Club is revising down his hopes for growth in the fourth quarter of 2019, having seen November’s gloomy PMIs. |
| Duncan Brock, Group Director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, blames Brexit for the drop in UK service sector activity last month. | Duncan Brock, Group Director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, blames Brexit for the drop in UK service sector activity last month. |
| Here’s his take on November’s PMIs: | Here’s his take on November’s PMIs: |
| Tim Moore, economics associate director at IHS Markit, says the UK economy is “staggering” through the final quarter of the year, with output falling at services companies and factories. | Tim Moore, economics associate director at IHS Markit, says the UK economy is “staggering” through the final quarter of the year, with output falling at services companies and factories. |