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General election: predicted Tory lead narrows in latest MRP poll – live news General election: predicted Tory lead narrows in latest MRP poll – live news
(30 minutes later)
Latest developments as general election campaign enters final daysLatest developments as general election campaign enters final days
The shadow women and equalities minister, Naz Shah, has criticised the Tories for standing by a candidate who shared a message on social media claiming Muslims play the “race card” and have a “nasty culture”
The Guardian revealed on Monday that Linden Kemkaran retweeted a Twitter user last week who dismissed Islamophobia as nonsense, as well as two others who accused Shah of being “not white enough” to have experienced what they described as Bradford’s “no-go areas”.
It was reported that the Tories were investigating the claims against Kemkaran, who said she “didn’t and never would describe Islam or any other culture as ‘nasty’”. This evening, Shah has accused the party of refusing to take decisive action.
According to the Mail on Sunday’s deputy political editor, this is the Tory spin on the poll:According to the Mail on Sunday’s deputy political editor, this is the Tory spin on the poll:
It’s been noted by various Westminster correspondents that the Tories were likely to be unsettled by the previous poll, which predicted a comfortable lead and which some voters could see as a reason not to turn out.It’s been noted by various Westminster correspondents that the Tories were likely to be unsettled by the previous poll, which predicted a comfortable lead and which some voters could see as a reason not to turn out.
It follows, then, that they’d portray any potential narrowing of the gap in this evening’s as presenting a “danger” their supporters must get to the polls to see off.It follows, then, that they’d portray any potential narrowing of the gap in this evening’s as presenting a “danger” their supporters must get to the polls to see off.
Somewhat more interestingly, the poll suggests Thursday evening could be uncomfortable for the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, and the former work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith.Somewhat more interestingly, the poll suggests Thursday evening could be uncomfortable for the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, and the former work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith.
One point to note: The YouGov poll released this evening seeks to measure the likely results if the general election were held right now. Without wishing to labour a somewhat tedious and clichéd point, the campaigning is not yet over.One point to note: The YouGov poll released this evening seeks to measure the likely results if the general election were held right now. Without wishing to labour a somewhat tedious and clichéd point, the campaigning is not yet over.
Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, has said:Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, has said:
The Tories could still be on course for a majority at Thursday’s general election, but it may be smaller than was predicted a fortnight ago, according to one poll published this evening.The Tories could still be on course for a majority at Thursday’s general election, but it may be smaller than was predicted a fortnight ago, according to one poll published this evening.
The YouGov poll for the Times suggests the Conservatives may have the upper hand in 339 seats; enough to form a government but 20 fewer than in a similar poll published on 27 November. Labour are also predicted to win 20 more seats than before.The YouGov poll for the Times suggests the Conservatives may have the upper hand in 339 seats; enough to form a government but 20 fewer than in a similar poll published on 27 November. Labour are also predicted to win 20 more seats than before.
The poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311. Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said:The poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311. Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said:
The paper reports that the seat-by-seat analysis was based on more than 100,000 interviews conducted over the past seven days in the 632 constituencies in Great Britain and produced using a polling model that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2017 election.The paper reports that the seat-by-seat analysis was based on more than 100,000 interviews conducted over the past seven days in the 632 constituencies in Great Britain and produced using a polling model that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2017 election.
It predicts vote shares of 43% for the Tories and 34% for Labour and suggests the SNP could win 35 seats, the Lib Dems 12, Plaid Cymru four and both the Greens and others on one each. The Brexit party is not predicted to win a single seat.It predicts vote shares of 43% for the Tories and 34% for Labour and suggests the SNP could win 35 seats, the Lib Dems 12, Plaid Cymru four and both the Greens and others on one each. The Brexit party is not predicted to win a single seat.
The poll does not cover the Northern Irish constituencies.The poll does not cover the Northern Irish constituencies.
O’Neill also came under pressure over Sinn Féin’s policy of not taking their seats at Westminster. She insisted “one or two Irish MPs won’t make a difference”, in response to criticism by Eastwood and Aiken.O’Neill also came under pressure over Sinn Féin’s policy of not taking their seats at Westminster. She insisted “one or two Irish MPs won’t make a difference”, in response to criticism by Eastwood and Aiken.
The latter put to O’Neill that her MPs in the last parliament were often seen sitting in the coffee shops and asked: “Why not take your seats on the green benches”? She said:The latter put to O’Neill that her MPs in the last parliament were often seen sitting in the coffee shops and asked: “Why not take your seats on the green benches”? She said:
The SDLP leader, who is running in Foyle, restated that, if elected, he would take his seat in Westminster. Long also pressed O’Neill over abstentionism. O’Neill responded saying her MPs will never take an oath of allegiance to the Queen.The SDLP leader, who is running in Foyle, restated that, if elected, he would take his seat in Westminster. Long also pressed O’Neill over abstentionism. O’Neill responded saying her MPs will never take an oath of allegiance to the Queen.
The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has not taken part in this evening’s BBC Northern Ireland Spotlight election debate. Lagan Valley candidate, Jeffrey Donaldson, has stood in for his party leader.The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has not taken part in this evening’s BBC Northern Ireland Spotlight election debate. Lagan Valley candidate, Jeffrey Donaldson, has stood in for his party leader.
Of the other four main parties in the region, Sinn Féin has been represented by its vice president Michelle O’Neill, the SDLP by its leader Colum Eastwood, the UUP by its leader Steve Aiken and the Alliance party by its leader Naomi Long.Of the other four main parties in the region, Sinn Féin has been represented by its vice president Michelle O’Neill, the SDLP by its leader Colum Eastwood, the UUP by its leader Steve Aiken and the Alliance party by its leader Naomi Long.
The first question put to them by a member of the audience was: “do you believe Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely?”.The first question put to them by a member of the audience was: “do you believe Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely?”.
Eastwood said he believes the first thing to be dealt with is “the emergency that is Brexit”, and called for a second referendum to “stop this Brexit madness”.Eastwood said he believes the first thing to be dealt with is “the emergency that is Brexit”, and called for a second referendum to “stop this Brexit madness”.
Donaldson said he doesn’t believe there is a threat to Northern Ireland’s position within the UK, and he opposed a second referendum on Brexit. He slated “poor negotiation” on behalf of the UK government and restated his party’s opposition to Boris Johnson’s proposed Brexit dealDonaldson said he doesn’t believe there is a threat to Northern Ireland’s position within the UK, and he opposed a second referendum on Brexit. He slated “poor negotiation” on behalf of the UK government and restated his party’s opposition to Boris Johnson’s proposed Brexit deal
O’Neill said Brexit may make people rethink their stance on a united Ireland, if leaving the UK would mean re-entering the EU.O’Neill said Brexit may make people rethink their stance on a united Ireland, if leaving the UK would mean re-entering the EU.
According to Long, Brexit has “certainly made Northern Ireland less stable”. She said it has brought arguments around borders back to the fore, adding: “The harder the Brexit, the more borders... the more likely people are to reconsider their position (on the constitutional question).”According to Long, Brexit has “certainly made Northern Ireland less stable”. She said it has brought arguments around borders back to the fore, adding: “The harder the Brexit, the more borders... the more likely people are to reconsider their position (on the constitutional question).”
Aiken said Johnson’s deal makes Northern Ireland “a place apart”, and urged for the proposals to be stopped.Aiken said Johnson’s deal makes Northern Ireland “a place apart”, and urged for the proposals to be stopped.
Finally, the leaders are asked about climate change.Finally, the leaders are asked about climate change.
Sturgeon says the Scottish government has already passed a bill with the most challenging climate targets in the world. “We changed our mind on reducing air passenger duty, but the government also needs to work with companies as well as encouraging individuals to make changes.”Sturgeon says the Scottish government has already passed a bill with the most challenging climate targets in the world. “We changed our mind on reducing air passenger duty, but the government also needs to work with companies as well as encouraging individuals to make changes.”
Leonard sets out Labour’s green industrial revolution – asked what unpopular decision he’s prepared to make on climate change, he says he wants a revolution by consent.Leonard sets out Labour’s green industrial revolution – asked what unpopular decision he’s prepared to make on climate change, he says he wants a revolution by consent.
Carlaw says it’s not a case of foisting things upon people – there’s an international aspect in helping other countries to avoid the mistakes the UK has made. We need to manage resources better.Carlaw says it’s not a case of foisting things upon people – there’s an international aspect in helping other countries to avoid the mistakes the UK has made. We need to manage resources better.
In Greater Manchester, the prime minister is holding a rally:In Greater Manchester, the prime minister is holding a rally:
Going back to the audience on funding for policies, one woman tells the Tory leader, Jackson Carlaw, that his claims about increased employment are really evidence of subsidised employment, because so many working people are now relying on food banks.Going back to the audience on funding for policies, one woman tells the Tory leader, Jackson Carlaw, that his claims about increased employment are really evidence of subsidised employment, because so many working people are now relying on food banks.
Leonard says there is a real problem of low pay, which is why Labour is introducing a minimum wage of £10 an hour for everyone over the age of 16.Leonard says there is a real problem of low pay, which is why Labour is introducing a minimum wage of £10 an hour for everyone over the age of 16.
Sturgeon accuses Carlaw of being “out of touch”; his priority is passing on tax cuts to the rich, while the SNP has already introduced a higher rate of tax for high earners.Sturgeon accuses Carlaw of being “out of touch”; his priority is passing on tax cuts to the rich, while the SNP has already introduced a higher rate of tax for high earners.
Danielle from Falkirk asks the money question: How are parties going to fund their policies?Danielle from Falkirk asks the money question: How are parties going to fund their policies?
Richard Leonard says Labour wants to “move forward through investment”, we will borrow to invest and put burden of taxation more fairly on companies.Richard Leonard says Labour wants to “move forward through investment”, we will borrow to invest and put burden of taxation more fairly on companies.
Nicola Sturgeon says SNP priorities - and the experience they’d bring to a minority government - are progressive taxation, more room for responsible borrowing while interest rates low, and stop spending on the wrong priorities. “Every other party here wants to spend £200bn on Trident renewal”.Nicola Sturgeon says SNP priorities - and the experience they’d bring to a minority government - are progressive taxation, more room for responsible borrowing while interest rates low, and stop spending on the wrong priorities. “Every other party here wants to spend £200bn on Trident renewal”.
Ahead of the final day of campaigning, the BBC Scotland leaders’ debate – the final televised debate of this election campaign – has begun in Glasgow, with audience questions on trust in politicians and the inevitability of independence. There’s also a stage set that would be more appropriate to a Derren Brown show, but not to worry.Ahead of the final day of campaigning, the BBC Scotland leaders’ debate – the final televised debate of this election campaign – has begun in Glasgow, with audience questions on trust in politicians and the inevitability of independence. There’s also a stage set that would be more appropriate to a Derren Brown show, but not to worry.
The audience immediately makes its presence felt: “Can I ask Willie Rennie to stop talking over people?” interjects one woman, “It’s really rude.” Another man says that the country has never been more divided “because of the way YOU [the party leaders] are acting”. Another woman who identifies herself as “of a certain age”, says that as a WASPI woman “I’ve been disrespected by all of you”.The audience immediately makes its presence felt: “Can I ask Willie Rennie to stop talking over people?” interjects one woman, “It’s really rude.” Another man says that the country has never been more divided “because of the way YOU [the party leaders] are acting”. Another woman who identifies herself as “of a certain age”, says that as a WASPI woman “I’ve been disrespected by all of you”.
Meanwhile, the leaders are still warming up, and sticking fairly firmly to their party lines. Asked about further devolution versus independence, Sturgeon says that Labour and the Lib Dems talk a lot about ideas like ‘devo max’ but without offering specifics.Meanwhile, the leaders are still warming up, and sticking fairly firmly to their party lines. Asked about further devolution versus independence, Sturgeon says that Labour and the Lib Dems talk a lot about ideas like ‘devo max’ but without offering specifics.
It’s worth noting that Sturgeon is now a debate veteran, having appeared in many of the UK-wide debates, but this Scotland-focused one may bring more audience scrutiny of the SNP government’s record at Holyrood. Carlaw challenges her: “Its those public services are currently suffering because Nicola Sturgeon’s first, second, third and forth priority is independence, not the economy, not your jobs.”It’s worth noting that Sturgeon is now a debate veteran, having appeared in many of the UK-wide debates, but this Scotland-focused one may bring more audience scrutiny of the SNP government’s record at Holyrood. Carlaw challenges her: “Its those public services are currently suffering because Nicola Sturgeon’s first, second, third and forth priority is independence, not the economy, not your jobs.”
In the BBC’s Scottish leaders debate, which is airing now, Nicola Sturgeon is asked about mistrust in politicians. The SNP leader says political leaders have forgotten they are “opponents, not enemies”.In the BBC’s Scottish leaders debate, which is airing now, Nicola Sturgeon is asked about mistrust in politicians. The SNP leader says political leaders have forgotten they are “opponents, not enemies”.
The leader of the Scottish Tories, Jackson Carlaw, says we are living in a less deferential age and people no longer unquestioningly accept what politicians say.The leader of the Scottish Tories, Jackson Carlaw, says we are living in a less deferential age and people no longer unquestioningly accept what politicians say.
Richard Leonard, of Scottish Labour, says political leaders have been guilty of “transposing their own priorities”, rather than listening to those of voters. He’s asked a follow-up on Jonathan Ashworth’s claim that he backs Jeremy Corbyn, which come after he was recorded speaking in less than flattering terms about his party leader. Is that not an example of the sort of thing that erodes trust? Leonard repeats Ashworth’s claim he was winding up a friend.Richard Leonard, of Scottish Labour, says political leaders have been guilty of “transposing their own priorities”, rather than listening to those of voters. He’s asked a follow-up on Jonathan Ashworth’s claim that he backs Jeremy Corbyn, which come after he was recorded speaking in less than flattering terms about his party leader. Is that not an example of the sort of thing that erodes trust? Leonard repeats Ashworth’s claim he was winding up a friend.
Willie Rennie, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, says he is deeply concerned about public mistrust.Willie Rennie, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, says he is deeply concerned about public mistrust.
My colleague, Dan Sabbagh, has put together this guide to tactical voting:My colleague, Dan Sabbagh, has put together this guide to tactical voting:
The Guardian has just published its view on this Thursday’s general election:The Guardian has just published its view on this Thursday’s general election:
We reported earlier that a group of Extinction Rebellion protesters had stuck themselves to the Tory campaign bus (see 5.16pm). After about an hour and a half, the three men have been unstuck and placed in handcuffs by police.We reported earlier that a group of Extinction Rebellion protesters had stuck themselves to the Tory campaign bus (see 5.16pm). After about an hour and a half, the three men have been unstuck and placed in handcuffs by police.
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, has been told that he retains Jeremy Corbyn’s backing after a tape of a private conversation was released in which Ashworth said Labour was certain to lose the election and Corbyn was a major reason why. In the 11-minute recording Ashworth said:Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, has been told that he retains Jeremy Corbyn’s backing after a tape of a private conversation was released in which Ashworth said Labour was certain to lose the election and Corbyn was a major reason why. In the 11-minute recording Ashworth said:
The recording was obtained by the anti-Labour website Guido Fawkes and posted online this morning. Ashworth immediately accepted that the tape, which seems to have been recorded early last week, was genuine. He was talking to a Tory activist who had had known for years and whom he considered a friend, he said. Ashworth initially said that his comments, which included a vague hint that Corbyn might be considered a security risk by officials in No 10, were “banter” and later he expanded on this, saying that he was deliberately trying to lull the Tories into a false sense of security. He told the BBC’s Politics Live (no relation to the original Politics Live at the Guardian):The recording was obtained by the anti-Labour website Guido Fawkes and posted online this morning. Ashworth immediately accepted that the tape, which seems to have been recorded early last week, was genuine. He was talking to a Tory activist who had had known for years and whom he considered a friend, he said. Ashworth initially said that his comments, which included a vague hint that Corbyn might be considered a security risk by officials in No 10, were “banter” and later he expanded on this, saying that he was deliberately trying to lull the Tories into a false sense of security. He told the BBC’s Politics Live (no relation to the original Politics Live at the Guardian):
If Ashworth really was engaged in a cunning attempt to mislead CCHQ, he is a better actor than people have given him credit for and clearly has potential as a double agent. (You can listen to the recording here, and decide what to think for yourself.) Notwithstanding, he apologised to Labour members anyway. And Corbyn indicated that he accepted Ashworth’s explanation of what happened, telling the BBC:If Ashworth really was engaged in a cunning attempt to mislead CCHQ, he is a better actor than people have given him credit for and clearly has potential as a double agent. (You can listen to the recording here, and decide what to think for yourself.) Notwithstanding, he apologised to Labour members anyway. And Corbyn indicated that he accepted Ashworth’s explanation of what happened, telling the BBC:
In politics, as in most walks of life, people do say disobliging things about their bosses in private from time to time and Ashworth’s comments were relatively mild compared to some of the comments made about Corbyn by his MPs behind his back. In public at least, Ashworth’s colleagues have been supportive. Most of them probably feel understandable sympathy for the way Ashworth appears to have been let down by long-standing friend he thought he could trust.In politics, as in most walks of life, people do say disobliging things about their bosses in private from time to time and Ashworth’s comments were relatively mild compared to some of the comments made about Corbyn by his MPs behind his back. In public at least, Ashworth’s colleagues have been supportive. Most of them probably feel understandable sympathy for the way Ashworth appears to have been let down by long-standing friend he thought he could trust.
Boris Johnson has said it is “very hard” to see Brexit happening if the Tories fail to get a majority. Speaking at a Q&A at a JCB factory, he said:Boris Johnson has said it is “very hard” to see Brexit happening if the Tories fail to get a majority. Speaking at a Q&A at a JCB factory, he said:
Johnson has given his strongest hint yet that he is not planning to scrap HS2.Johnson has given his strongest hint yet that he is not planning to scrap HS2.
Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, has claimed that Johnson has changed Brexit strategy within the last week, opting for a softer version. At a news conference, Farage said this explained why he would not be voting Tory in his own constituency, where the Brexit party aren’t fielding a candidate. In truth, Johnson’s Brexit plan has not changed, but Farage is right to say that on the campaign trail Johnson has increasingly been suggesting that fact that he has an “oven-ready” withdrawal agreement ready to go (which is true) also means that his eventual UK-EU trade deal is also nearly complete (which is not true at all).Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, has claimed that Johnson has changed Brexit strategy within the last week, opting for a softer version. At a news conference, Farage said this explained why he would not be voting Tory in his own constituency, where the Brexit party aren’t fielding a candidate. In truth, Johnson’s Brexit plan has not changed, but Farage is right to say that on the campaign trail Johnson has increasingly been suggesting that fact that he has an “oven-ready” withdrawal agreement ready to go (which is true) also means that his eventual UK-EU trade deal is also nearly complete (which is not true at all).
Jo Swinson has accused Boris Johnson of showing “an empathy bypass” in his attitude to other people, as the Liberal Democrats made a final push to persuade traditional Labour supporters to vote tactically and deny the Conservatives a majority.Jo Swinson has accused Boris Johnson of showing “an empathy bypass” in his attitude to other people, as the Liberal Democrats made a final push to persuade traditional Labour supporters to vote tactically and deny the Conservatives a majority.
A medical secretary has claimed her Facebook account was hacked after it was used to post false information claiming that a photograph of an ill boy on the floor at Leeds General Infirmary was staged for political purposes.A medical secretary has claimed her Facebook account was hacked after it was used to post false information claiming that a photograph of an ill boy on the floor at Leeds General Infirmary was staged for political purposes.
The father of Jack Merritt, who was murdered in the London Bridge terrorist attack last month, has directly criticised the prime minister for treating his son’s death as a political “opportunity”.The father of Jack Merritt, who was murdered in the London Bridge terrorist attack last month, has directly criticised the prime minister for treating his son’s death as a political “opportunity”.
That’s all from my for today.That’s all from my for today.
My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is writing the blog now.My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is writing the blog now.
A complaint has been lodged with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development accusing JCB of having done nothing to protect human rights over the use of its mechanical equipment in the Palestinian occupied territories.A complaint has been lodged with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development accusing JCB of having done nothing to protect human rights over the use of its mechanical equipment in the Palestinian occupied territories.
The OECD complaint alleges that the British multinational has allowed its products to be used repeatedly to bulldoze Palestinian villages, or construct illegal settlements in alleged breach of international law.The OECD complaint alleges that the British multinational has allowed its products to be used repeatedly to bulldoze Palestinian villages, or construct illegal settlements in alleged breach of international law.
The claim was lodged on Tuesday by Lawyers for Palestinian Rights, the same day that Boris Johnson went to the JCB’s factory in the Midlands of the UK to knock over a polystyrene wall. JCB family members have been a long-term funders of the Tory party.The claim was lodged on Tuesday by Lawyers for Palestinian Rights, the same day that Boris Johnson went to the JCB’s factory in the Midlands of the UK to knock over a polystyrene wall. JCB family members have been a long-term funders of the Tory party.
The legal charity is bringing the claim against JCB under Chapter 4 of the OECD guidelines for multinationals concerning the need to take into account human rights considerations when selling products.The legal charity is bringing the claim against JCB under Chapter 4 of the OECD guidelines for multinationals concerning the need to take into account human rights considerations when selling products.
The group’s claim states:The group’s claim states:
It says JCB should “immediately suspend supply of products to Comasco (an Israeli company which is the exclusive dealer of JCB products in Israel) that could be identified as being part of the supply chain that results in demolitions or settlement-related construction, and to permanently cease supply to Comasco should it not be able to provide credible and verifiable guarantees that such products will not be involved in the violation of Palestinian human rights”.It says JCB should “immediately suspend supply of products to Comasco (an Israeli company which is the exclusive dealer of JCB products in Israel) that could be identified as being part of the supply chain that results in demolitions or settlement-related construction, and to permanently cease supply to Comasco should it not be able to provide credible and verifiable guarantees that such products will not be involved in the violation of Palestinian human rights”.
Tareq Shrourou and Claire Jeffwitz of Lawyers for Palestinian Human Rights, said:Tareq Shrourou and Claire Jeffwitz of Lawyers for Palestinian Human Rights, said:
JCB has been contacted for comment.JCB has been contacted for comment.