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General election: predicted Tory lead narrows in latest MRP poll – live news General election: predicted Tory lead narrows in latest MRP poll – as it happened
(32 minutes later)
Latest developments as general election campaign enters final daysLatest developments as general election campaign enters final days
That’s all from us this evening. Thanks for reading and commenting. If you’d like to read yet more, Heather Stewart and Rowena Mason have our main story:That’s all from us this evening. Thanks for reading and commenting. If you’d like to read yet more, Heather Stewart and Rowena Mason have our main story:
My colleague, Andrew Sparrow, has put together this detailed summary of the day’s events:My colleague, Andrew Sparrow, has put together this detailed summary of the day’s events:
And, since he wrote it, a major poll predicted a narrowing lead for the Tories, but suggested they could still be on course for a majority. The YouGov poll predicted a 28-seat lead for the Conservatives – down from 68 a fortnight ago. But it suggested a hung parliament was also a realistic outcome.And, since he wrote it, a major poll predicted a narrowing lead for the Tories, but suggested they could still be on course for a majority. The YouGov poll predicted a 28-seat lead for the Conservatives – down from 68 a fortnight ago. But it suggested a hung parliament was also a realistic outcome.
The shadow women and equalities minister, Naz Shah, has criticised the Tories for standing by a candidate who shared a message on social media claiming Muslims play the “race card” and have a “nasty culture”The shadow women and equalities minister, Naz Shah, has criticised the Tories for standing by a candidate who shared a message on social media claiming Muslims play the “race card” and have a “nasty culture”
The Guardian revealed on Monday that Linden Kemkaran retweeted a Twitter user last week who dismissed Islamophobia as nonsense, as well as two others who accused Shah of being “not white enough” to have experienced what they described as Bradford’s “no-go areas”.The Guardian revealed on Monday that Linden Kemkaran retweeted a Twitter user last week who dismissed Islamophobia as nonsense, as well as two others who accused Shah of being “not white enough” to have experienced what they described as Bradford’s “no-go areas”.
It was reported that the Tories were investigating the claims against Kemkaran, who said she “didn’t and never would describe Islam or any other culture as ‘nasty’”. This evening, Shah has accused the party of refusing to take decisive action.It was reported that the Tories were investigating the claims against Kemkaran, who said she “didn’t and never would describe Islam or any other culture as ‘nasty’”. This evening, Shah has accused the party of refusing to take decisive action.
According to the Mail on Sunday’s deputy political editor, this is the Tory spin on the poll:According to the Mail on Sunday’s deputy political editor, this is the Tory spin on the poll:
It’s been noted by various Westminster correspondents that the Tories were likely to be unsettled by the previous poll, which predicted a comfortable lead and which some voters could see as a reason not to turn out.It’s been noted by various Westminster correspondents that the Tories were likely to be unsettled by the previous poll, which predicted a comfortable lead and which some voters could see as a reason not to turn out.
It follows, then, that they’d portray any potential narrowing of the gap in this evening’s as presenting a “danger” their supporters must get to the polls to see off.It follows, then, that they’d portray any potential narrowing of the gap in this evening’s as presenting a “danger” their supporters must get to the polls to see off.
Somewhat more interestingly, the poll suggests Thursday evening could be uncomfortable for the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, and the former work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith.Somewhat more interestingly, the poll suggests Thursday evening could be uncomfortable for the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, and the former work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith.
One point to note: The YouGov poll released this evening seeks to measure the likely results if the general election were held right now. Without wishing to labour a somewhat tedious and clichéd point, the campaigning is not yet over.One point to note: The YouGov poll released this evening seeks to measure the likely results if the general election were held right now. Without wishing to labour a somewhat tedious and clichéd point, the campaigning is not yet over.
Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, has said:Chris Curtis, YouGov’s political research manager, has said:
The Tories could still be on course for a majority at Thursday’s general election, but it may be smaller than was predicted a fortnight ago, according to one poll published this evening.The Tories could still be on course for a majority at Thursday’s general election, but it may be smaller than was predicted a fortnight ago, according to one poll published this evening.
The YouGov poll for the Times suggests the Conservatives may have the upper hand in 339 seats; enough to form a government but 20 fewer than in a similar poll published on 27 November. Labour are also predicted to win 20 more seats than before, with 231.The YouGov poll for the Times suggests the Conservatives may have the upper hand in 339 seats; enough to form a government but 20 fewer than in a similar poll published on 27 November. Labour are also predicted to win 20 more seats than before, with 231.
The poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311. Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said:The poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311. Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said:
The paper reports that the seat-by-seat analysis was based on more than 100,000 interviews conducted over the past seven days in the 632 constituencies in Great Britain and produced using a polling model that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2017 election.The paper reports that the seat-by-seat analysis was based on more than 100,000 interviews conducted over the past seven days in the 632 constituencies in Great Britain and produced using a polling model that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2017 election.
It predicts vote shares of 43% for the Tories and 34% for Labour and suggests the SNP could win 35 seats, the Lib Dems 12, Plaid Cymru four and both the Greens and others on one each. The Brexit party is not predicted to win a single seat.It predicts vote shares of 43% for the Tories and 34% for Labour and suggests the SNP could win 35 seats, the Lib Dems 12, Plaid Cymru four and both the Greens and others on one each. The Brexit party is not predicted to win a single seat.
The poll does not cover the Northern Irish constituencies.The poll does not cover the Northern Irish constituencies.
O’Neill also came under pressure over Sinn Féin’s policy of not taking their seats at Westminster. She insisted “one or two Irish MPs won’t make a difference”, in response to criticism by Eastwood and Aiken.O’Neill also came under pressure over Sinn Féin’s policy of not taking their seats at Westminster. She insisted “one or two Irish MPs won’t make a difference”, in response to criticism by Eastwood and Aiken.
The latter put to O’Neill that her MPs in the last parliament were often seen sitting in the coffee shops and asked: “Why not take your seats on the green benches”? She said:The latter put to O’Neill that her MPs in the last parliament were often seen sitting in the coffee shops and asked: “Why not take your seats on the green benches”? She said:
The SDLP leader, who is running in Foyle, restated that, if elected, he would take his seat in Westminster. Long also pressed O’Neill over abstentionism. O’Neill responded saying her MPs will never take an oath of allegiance to the Queen.The SDLP leader, who is running in Foyle, restated that, if elected, he would take his seat in Westminster. Long also pressed O’Neill over abstentionism. O’Neill responded saying her MPs will never take an oath of allegiance to the Queen.
The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has not taken part in this evening’s BBC Northern Ireland Spotlight election debate. Lagan Valley candidate, Jeffrey Donaldson, has stood in for his party leader.The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has not taken part in this evening’s BBC Northern Ireland Spotlight election debate. Lagan Valley candidate, Jeffrey Donaldson, has stood in for his party leader.
Of the other four main parties in the region, Sinn Féin has been represented by its vice president Michelle O’Neill, the SDLP by its leader Colum Eastwood, the UUP by its leader Steve Aiken and the Alliance party by its leader Naomi Long.Of the other four main parties in the region, Sinn Féin has been represented by its vice president Michelle O’Neill, the SDLP by its leader Colum Eastwood, the UUP by its leader Steve Aiken and the Alliance party by its leader Naomi Long.
The first question put to them by a member of the audience was: “do you believe Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely?”.The first question put to them by a member of the audience was: “do you believe Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely?”.
Eastwood said he believes the first thing to be dealt with is “the emergency that is Brexit”, and called for a second referendum to “stop this Brexit madness”.Eastwood said he believes the first thing to be dealt with is “the emergency that is Brexit”, and called for a second referendum to “stop this Brexit madness”.
Donaldson said he doesn’t believe there is a threat to Northern Ireland’s position within the UK, and he opposed a second referendum on Brexit. He slated “poor negotiation” on behalf of the UK government and restated his party’s opposition to Boris Johnson’s proposed Brexit dealDonaldson said he doesn’t believe there is a threat to Northern Ireland’s position within the UK, and he opposed a second referendum on Brexit. He slated “poor negotiation” on behalf of the UK government and restated his party’s opposition to Boris Johnson’s proposed Brexit deal
O’Neill said Brexit may make people rethink their stance on a united Ireland, if leaving the UK would mean re-entering the EU.O’Neill said Brexit may make people rethink their stance on a united Ireland, if leaving the UK would mean re-entering the EU.
According to Long, Brexit has “certainly made Northern Ireland less stable”. She said it has brought arguments around borders back to the fore, adding: “The harder the Brexit, the more borders... the more likely people are to reconsider their position (on the constitutional question).”According to Long, Brexit has “certainly made Northern Ireland less stable”. She said it has brought arguments around borders back to the fore, adding: “The harder the Brexit, the more borders... the more likely people are to reconsider their position (on the constitutional question).”
Aiken said Johnson’s deal makes Northern Ireland “a place apart”, and urged for the proposals to be stopped.Aiken said Johnson’s deal makes Northern Ireland “a place apart”, and urged for the proposals to be stopped.
Finally, the leaders are asked about climate change.Finally, the leaders are asked about climate change.
Sturgeon says the Scottish government has already passed a bill with the most challenging climate targets in the world. “We changed our mind on reducing air passenger duty, but the government also needs to work with companies as well as encouraging individuals to make changes.”Sturgeon says the Scottish government has already passed a bill with the most challenging climate targets in the world. “We changed our mind on reducing air passenger duty, but the government also needs to work with companies as well as encouraging individuals to make changes.”
Leonard sets out Labour’s green industrial revolution – asked what unpopular decision he’s prepared to make on climate change, he says he wants a revolution by consent.Leonard sets out Labour’s green industrial revolution – asked what unpopular decision he’s prepared to make on climate change, he says he wants a revolution by consent.
Carlaw says it’s not a case of foisting things upon people – there’s an international aspect in helping other countries to avoid the mistakes the UK has made. We need to manage resources better.Carlaw says it’s not a case of foisting things upon people – there’s an international aspect in helping other countries to avoid the mistakes the UK has made. We need to manage resources better.