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General election: Party leaders cross country in final push for votes – live news General election: Party leaders cross country in final push for votes – live news
(32 minutes later)
Labour and the Conservatives in scramble for votes on the final day of campaigningLabour and the Conservatives in scramble for votes on the final day of campaigning
Just over 15 minutes left to ask any questions you may have on the general election. Send them in to us here.
Q: Are elderly voters less likely to come out and vote in a cold, December election and could this affect the result? Danny, Amsterdam
We won’t have much recent past data as general elections are usually in May. The conventional wisdom is that winter elections hurt Labour because their traditional voters are less likely to own a car but this seems outdated. If it were to snow, it seems more likely this would affect the Tories, whose voters are older, and whose “get out the vote” operation is weaker than Labour.
Q: This election has seen a rise of dirty tactics and dishonesty from most of the parties, especially the Conservatives. These include the the fake Fact Checking incident, false smears of other parties and all the lies within adverts on Facebook etc. How can this be allowed and how come not more is being done about this? Andrew, senior designer, London
Election laws are seriously wanting when it comes to advertising and social media use. It is essentially the Wild West as there is no regulation of it. It is illegal for people to make false statements about candidates but not for parties to present misinformation. The problem is that the winning party in an election has little incentive to make better laws.
Ian Lavery, the Labour chair, is speaking at the Labour rally now. He gets the crowd singing “Prime Minister Corbyn” to the “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn tune”.
Holding up a copy of the Labour manifesto, he says he calls it the “book of hope”.
This election is not about Brexit, he says. He says it is about the type of society we want to live in.
Britain cannot afford another five years of the Tories, or another five days, he says.
He says Boris Johnson should be kicked out of Downing Street “like a dog”.
Laura Pidcock, the shadow employment minister, is speaking at the Labour rally.
She says Labour has campaigned with integrity. Unlike the Tories, its has not resorted to lies, she says.
She says there are still people who have not decided how to vote. Labour must show them a better world is possible.
She says Labour is campaigning on behalf of the 14.3 million people in poverty, on behalf of the 4 million children in poverty, and on behalf of the Waspi women who are entitled to receive the money they’ve lost.
You have been sending in your questions about the general election which I will be answering until 1.30pm. You can share your questions with us via our form here.
Q: 326 is the target number of seats for a majority, but it is generally accepted it can be a bit lower than this for a party to still have a working majority. What is the minimum number of seats the Conservatives can have and still realistically expect to govern without having to rely on other parties? Martin, 29, lecturer, Wirral
The Conservatives need around 320 seats because the DUP are unlikely to play ball because of Johnson’s Brexit deal that creates a border down the Irish Sea. No other parties are keen to work with them either. There are 650 MPs – around seven Sinn Fein who do not take up their seats and four non-voting speakers. Half of that is 319.5 so the Tories are aiming for 320 as their magic number.
Q: To what extent could young voter turnout sway the election result? Alice, 23, working in tech, Brussels, Belgium
It could be crucially important. Last time, Labour took Canterbury off the stories in a shock result attributed to the student vote. Younger voters could make the difference in Labour targets such as Putney and Chingford. Different polls have different predictions for turnout among each age group which partially accounts for wildly varying leads for the Tories between six and 15 points.
At the rally, Andy McDonald, the shadow transport secretary, is warming up for Labour. He says opinion is “on the move”. Labour can win this election, he says.
Jeremy Corbyn is now arriving to address the Labour rally in Middlesbrough.
There is a live feed at the top of the blog.
From the Labour rally in Middlesbrough
Boris Johnson flew from east Midlands to Cardiff airport as he continued his election campaigning in south Wales, the Press Association reports. The PM’s flight took around 40 minutes. He has previously taken short-haul flights on the campaign, including between Doncaster Sheffield airport and Teesside, prompting criticism from Labour and climate campaigners.
Opinion polls have generally not had a good record at recent elections, but in 2017 one exercise run by a polling company did prove remarkably successful. As well as doing conventional polling (finding a representative survey, and asking people how they will vote), YouGov also tried something called a MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) model, which involves getting detailed data on how particular demographics vote and then, mapping that against what is know about the demographic make-up of constituencies, trying to predict results on a constituency by constituency basis. In 2017 this was more or less the only polling exercise to predict a hung parliament, and so obviously there has been huge interest in what it is saying this time.Opinion polls have generally not had a good record at recent elections, but in 2017 one exercise run by a polling company did prove remarkably successful. As well as doing conventional polling (finding a representative survey, and asking people how they will vote), YouGov also tried something called a MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) model, which involves getting detailed data on how particular demographics vote and then, mapping that against what is know about the demographic make-up of constituencies, trying to predict results on a constituency by constituency basis. In 2017 this was more or less the only polling exercise to predict a hung parliament, and so obviously there has been huge interest in what it is saying this time.
Last night YouGov published its second and final MRP poll for this campaign. Here is an extract from the YouGov summary by Anthony Wells.Last night YouGov published its second and final MRP poll for this campaign. Here is an extract from the YouGov summary by Anthony Wells.
And here is a chart from the detailed YouGov analysis showing which seats would change hands under this scenario.And here is a chart from the detailed YouGov analysis showing which seats would change hands under this scenario.
Some of your questions so far have been about the Green party and what will happen on 1 February:Some of your questions so far have been about the Green party and what will happen on 1 February:
Q: On the subject of getting Brexit done, the PM says we will come out of the EU on 31 January, but what will actually be different on 1 February? For the ordinary person, and for businesses? Bill Muskett, 66, retired, CheshireQ: On the subject of getting Brexit done, the PM says we will come out of the EU on 31 January, but what will actually be different on 1 February? For the ordinary person, and for businesses? Bill Muskett, 66, retired, Cheshire
It will mostly be a symbolic exit as the UK will still be in transitional arrangements meaning trading relationships, free movement and links to EU institutions remain until the end of 2020 at least. Johnson has insisted a new immigration system and EU trade deal will be ready by then. If not, he can seek an extension to transition or face a cliff-edge where the UK would trade on WTO terms.It will mostly be a symbolic exit as the UK will still be in transitional arrangements meaning trading relationships, free movement and links to EU institutions remain until the end of 2020 at least. Johnson has insisted a new immigration system and EU trade deal will be ready by then. If not, he can seek an extension to transition or face a cliff-edge where the UK would trade on WTO terms.
Q: Why has the Green party failed to make much impact in this election given the success of XR and acceleration of the climate breakdown? Steve, 57, lecturer, SouthendQ: Why has the Green party failed to make much impact in this election given the success of XR and acceleration of the climate breakdown? Steve, 57, lecturer, Southend
All the smaller parties have been squeezed in this election as the choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn is so stark that voters seem to be making decisions based on who they would rather see as prime minister.All the smaller parties have been squeezed in this election as the choice between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn is so stark that voters seem to be making decisions based on who they would rather see as prime minister.
We’re now on stop two of Jo Swinson’s tour of London and commuter belt marginals, in Guildford - where the decision of former Tory MP Ann Milton to stand as an independent could split the Conservative vote tomorrow. We’re now on stop two of Jo Swinson’s tour of London and commuter-belt marginals, in Guildford – where the decision of former Tory MP Ann Milton to stand as an independent could split the Conservative vote tomorrow.
The Lib Dem leader was in a small, packed room in a village hall, where she gave assembled activists much the same message as she had half an hour down the road in Horsham - in such a volatile election, getting out the vote matters hugely. The Lib Dem leader was in a small, packed room in a village hall, where she gave assembled activists much the same message as she had half an hour down the road in Horsham – in such a volatile election, getting out the vote matters hugely.
Swinson told me at the last stop that she was hopeful the Lib Dem ground game, buoyed by local election gains in May and a record-high membership, could be crucial.Swinson told me at the last stop that she was hopeful the Lib Dem ground game, buoyed by local election gains in May and a record-high membership, could be crucial.
She also said she would enjoy a nervy election night all the more if tactical voting saw the Lib Dems eject some high-profile Brexiter MPs (she began the day in Dominic Raab’s seat): “I think it’s fair to say that would certainly be the case.”She also said she would enjoy a nervy election night all the more if tactical voting saw the Lib Dems eject some high-profile Brexiter MPs (she began the day in Dominic Raab’s seat): “I think it’s fair to say that would certainly be the case.”
I’m Rowena Mason, deputy political editor for the Guardian, and I will be answering any questions you have on the general election today. I have written about Westminster politics for eight years, covering three elections and two referendums. During this election, I have been tracking the Tories since Boris Johnson’s first stump speech in Birmingham.I’m Rowena Mason, deputy political editor for the Guardian, and I will be answering any questions you have on the general election today. I have written about Westminster politics for eight years, covering three elections and two referendums. During this election, I have been tracking the Tories since Boris Johnson’s first stump speech in Birmingham.
If you have a question you can send it to us by filling in the form here.If you have a question you can send it to us by filling in the form here.
Jeremy Corbyn is due to address a Labour rally in Middlesbrough shortly.Jeremy Corbyn is due to address a Labour rally in Middlesbrough shortly.
There is a live feed here.There is a live feed here.
A last-minute push for tactical voting has seen one Lib Dem candidate in a highly marginal seat effectively endorse his Labour opponent, advising local people to support him to avoid the constituency falling to the Conservatives.A last-minute push for tactical voting has seen one Lib Dem candidate in a highly marginal seat effectively endorse his Labour opponent, advising local people to support him to avoid the constituency falling to the Conservatives.
In a series of tweets, Brendan Devlin said that while he could not support either Labour or Jeremy Corbyn, the incumbent Labour MP, Paul Williams was “an honest, sincere man, and if I needed help, I know he’s reliable and committed to social justice”. He added: In a series of tweets, Brendan Devlin said that while he could not support either Labour or Jeremy Corbyn, the incumbent Labour MP, Paul Williams, was “an honest, sincere man, and if I needed help, I know he’s reliable and committed to social justice”. He added:
The 2017 election saw Williams defeat the Conservatives by just 888 votes, but polling for Thursday’s election puts the Tories marginally ahead.The 2017 election saw Williams defeat the Conservatives by just 888 votes, but polling for Thursday’s election puts the Tories marginally ahead.
Stockton South is one of the seats being highlighted by Vote for a Final Say, an anti-Brexit campaign group which is urging people to vote tactically, and has called for a series of Labour and Lib Dem candidates to step aside where polling suggests they are in third place in a marginal constituency – with Devlin among them.Stockton South is one of the seats being highlighted by Vote for a Final Say, an anti-Brexit campaign group which is urging people to vote tactically, and has called for a series of Labour and Lib Dem candidates to step aside where polling suggests they are in third place in a marginal constituency – with Devlin among them.
As part of a series you can ask our political team any questions you have about the general election, and they will post their responses on the politics live blog between 12.30pm and 1.30pm today and Friday.
Today, Rowena Mason, deputy political editor for the Guardian, will answer any questions you have on the general election. You can ask your question via our form here.
Here is a question from below the line.
We published this guide a few days ago.
As for when a winner will be announced (assuming there is a winner, and we don’t have a hung parliament), that tends to happen quite late in the night – nearer dawn than midnight. The broadcasters won’t formally declare a winner until one party has reached 326 seats.
But we will get an exit poll at 10pm. Since 1997 these have always been a fairly accurate guide to the final result, and in some recent years they have forecast the final tally precisely.
Here are the main points from Nigel Farage’s speech earlier.
Farage, the Brexit party leader, said Britain would be “back in [Brexit] crisis by May” because at that point the government would be under pressure to agree to an extension to the Brexit transition. The Conservatives have ruled out in their manifesto extending the transition period beyond December 2020. But most EU experts think that this will be another promise that Boris Johnson will have to break (like not extending beyond 31 October) because it will be impossible to negotiate a UK-EU trade deal by the end of next year. If the transition is going to be extended, that decision is going to have to be taken by next summer, and Farage said this would precipitate a crisis. Johnson claims that a vote for the Tories will “get Brexit done”, but Farage is probably right in arguing that this claim is bogus. Farage also complained that there had been very little public debate in the campaign about the detail of Johnson’s plans. He said:
Farage is right to say that Johnson has been able to get through the campaign without his Brexit plan being subject to sustained scrutiny. As an example, yesterday Johnson said at an event: “We can literally rip up the EU rule book and write a new one for ourselves [after Brexit].” Yet the day before, when asked by workers about the impact of Brexit on factories dependent on just-in-time supply lines in the north east, Johnson said: “The thing about the deal we’ve got ... it makes sure we have complete equivalence when it comes to our standards, our industrial requirements and the rest of it.”
Farage said a newspaper campaign to get Brexit party candidates to stand down was unworthy of a proper democracy. Claiming that there had been “real nastiness” in the campaign, he said:
Farage was referring to the Daily Mail, which campaigned for Brexit party candidates to stand down when it was worried they would split the leave vote and damaging Johnson’s chances of winning.
Farage said that after the election he would write a book about the campaign making the case for proportional representation. He said it would cover:
One of the ironies of this campaign is that the Brexit party, which is generally seen as a reactionary, rightwing outfit, is the party that is probably doing most in this campaign to champion electoral reform, a cause generally associated with the progressive left. The Liberal Democrats used to be the most vocal advocates of PR. They still support it, but it is not an issue they highlight much. This is probably a consequence of Nick Clegg’s doomed referendum on the alternative vote in 2011, which effectively killed PR as an issue in mainstream politics for the rest of the decade.
The second stop of the day for the PM was a brief visit to a catering firm called Red Olive, in the Derby North constituency, where former Labour MP Chris Williamson is standing as an independent after being suspended over antisemitism.
Boris Johnson helped to put the lid on a pie and brush it with egg wash, before placing it in the oven (“oven ready”: get it?).
He then took another pie, which had already been cooked, out of the oven and displayed it for the cameras. Perhaps it represented Theresa May’s deal.
“How can we express this deal more succinctly or more clearly?” he asked.
Here is the story from my colleagues Heather Stewart and Aamna Modhin about Boris Johnson’s unconventional approach to avoiding a TV interview this morning.
I’m standing in a sunny rugby club car park in Hersham, in the Surrey commuter belt, for the first stop of the Lib Dems’ final election push.
They have used both their bright orange battlebuses – one diesel, one electric – to bring along Jo Swinson as well as their deputy leader, Ed Davey. The buses will now head off on different routes, but both focusing on London and surrounding commuter towns – where the party hopes tactical voting could help them overturn big Conservativemajorities from 2017.
Hersham is in Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton constituency, where polling shows he is vulnerable to the Lib Dems if enough Labour voters switch sides.
Swinson’s brief speech to activists was a summary of the party’s late-campaign message – rather than arguing she can become PM, the aim is to, as she put it, “Stop Brexit, stop Boris”.
She exported the activists to make a final push for voters. As with many election events, there were no actual members of the public here – it was staged in part to buoy local members, but also for the TV and photo optics.
Next stop is Guildford, I’m told.
Farage says he expects turnout tomorrow to be lower than it was in 2017, when it was 69%. He says he thinks people are fed up of being asked to vote repeatedly. And he says he thinks Labour voters will stay at home because they dislike Jeremy Corbyn.
After the election Farage intends to write a short book about the campaign. He says one of the points he will be making is that first-past-the-post needs to go. He says it may have worked in the past, but it does not work now. And he claims it encourages “endless negativity”, because it encourages parties to campaign negatively, instead of focusing on their positive message. He sums up:
And that’s it. The Farage speech is over.
Nigel Farage is speaking at the campaign event in Doncaster now. (See 10.18am.)
He says he expects the Conservatives to win. But he says that he thinks Britain will face by another Brexit crisis in May, when the government comes under pressure to agree to an extension to the transition period.
He is now complaining about there being too much nastiness in politics. Brexit party candidates have faced horrible abuse, he claims.
Nicola Sturgeon has launched the final day of the Scottish National party’s election campaign with an “open letter” to voters making a direct attack on Boris Johnson’s character and conduct.
Setting off at a greengrocers cooperative in Edinburgh South – a brave choice given the seat is held by Labour with a 15,000-vote majority, Scotland’s largest - Sturgeon hopes to cement her line the SNP is the best choice for anti-Brexit voters in Scotland.
The SNP has shifted Sturgeon’s core campaign message away from the heavy focus it first had on promoting a second independence referendum next year. Recent opinion polls have shown the independence message has not been landing with voters; a YouGov poll for the Times last week found backing for independence had fallen five points to 44%, excluding don’t knows.
Arguing that SNP candidates are the closest challengers in all 13 seats being defended by the Scottish Conservatives, she put heavy emphasis on Johnson’s personality, and the SNP’s centre-left anti-austerity credentials. Her statement said:
Tilting heavily at Labour voters, she added:
YouGov’s final MRP poll, which found the Tories could win 339 seats across the UK, forecast the SNP will win 41 seats, lower than the party’s expectations. It said the Scottish Tories will hold nine, losing four it won in 2017, the Lib Dems hold its four wins in 2017, while Labour could hold five seats, despite repeated polls suggesting it could only retain Edinburgh South.
Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, is due to speak at an event in Doncaster shortly. There is a live feed of the event here.
Andy Stewart, the Brexit party candidate in Doncaster, is speaking at the moment, claiming that leave supports are the victims of a form of “racism of opinion”, because people are discriminating against them for what they think.