This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/dec/11/general-election-poll-suggests-tory-lead-narrows-as-campaign-enters-last-day-live

The article has changed 33 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 9 Version 10
General election: Party leaders cross country in final push for votes – live news General election: Party leaders cross country in final push for votes – live news
(32 minutes later)
Labour and the Conservatives in scramble for votes on the final day of campaigningLabour and the Conservatives in scramble for votes on the final day of campaigning
As part of a series you can ask our political team any questions you have about the general election, and they will post their responses on the politics live blog between 12.30pm and 1.30pm today and Friday.
Today, Rowena Mason, deputy political editor for the Guardian, will answer any questions you have on the general election. You can ask your question via our form here.
Here is a question from below the line.
We published this guide a few days ago.
As for when a winner will be announced (assuming there is a winner, and we don’t have a hung parliament), that tends to happen quite late in the night – nearer dawn than midnight. The broadcasters won’t formally declare a winner until one party has reached 326 seats.
But we will get an exit poll at 10pm. Since 1997 these have always been a fairly accurate guide to the final result, and in some recent years they have forecast the final tally precisely.
Here are the main points from Nigel Farage’s speech earlier.Here are the main points from Nigel Farage’s speech earlier.
Farage, the Brexit party leader, said Britain would be “back in [Brexit] crisis by May” because at that point the government would be under pressure to agree to an extension to the Brexit transition. The Conservatives have ruled out in their manifesto extending the transition period beyond December 2020. But most EU experts think that this will be another promise that Boris Johnson will have to break (like not extending beyond 31 October) because it will be impossible to negotiate a UK-EU trade deal by the end of next year. If the transition is going to be extended, that decision is going to have to be taken by next summer, and Farage said this would precipitate a crisis. Johnson claims that a vote for the Tories will “get Brexit done”, but Farage is probably right in arguing that this claim is bogus. Farage also complained that there had been very little public debate in the campaign about the detail of Johnson’s plans. He said:Farage, the Brexit party leader, said Britain would be “back in [Brexit] crisis by May” because at that point the government would be under pressure to agree to an extension to the Brexit transition. The Conservatives have ruled out in their manifesto extending the transition period beyond December 2020. But most EU experts think that this will be another promise that Boris Johnson will have to break (like not extending beyond 31 October) because it will be impossible to negotiate a UK-EU trade deal by the end of next year. If the transition is going to be extended, that decision is going to have to be taken by next summer, and Farage said this would precipitate a crisis. Johnson claims that a vote for the Tories will “get Brexit done”, but Farage is probably right in arguing that this claim is bogus. Farage also complained that there had been very little public debate in the campaign about the detail of Johnson’s plans. He said:
Farage is right to say that Johnson has been able to get through the campaign without his Brexit plan being subject to sustained scrutiny. As an example, yesterday Johnson said at an event: “We can literally rip up the EU rule book and write a new one for ourselves [after Brexit].” Yet the day before, when asked by workers about the impact of Brexit on factories dependent on just-in-time supply lines in the north east, Johnson said: “The thing about the deal we’ve got ... it makes sure we have complete equivalence when it comes to our standards, our industrial requirements and the rest of it.”Farage is right to say that Johnson has been able to get through the campaign without his Brexit plan being subject to sustained scrutiny. As an example, yesterday Johnson said at an event: “We can literally rip up the EU rule book and write a new one for ourselves [after Brexit].” Yet the day before, when asked by workers about the impact of Brexit on factories dependent on just-in-time supply lines in the north east, Johnson said: “The thing about the deal we’ve got ... it makes sure we have complete equivalence when it comes to our standards, our industrial requirements and the rest of it.”
Farage said a newspaper campaign to get Brexit party candidates to stand down was unworthy of a proper democracy. Claiming that there had been “real nastiness” in the campaign, he said:Farage said a newspaper campaign to get Brexit party candidates to stand down was unworthy of a proper democracy. Claiming that there had been “real nastiness” in the campaign, he said:
Farage was referring to the Daily Mail, which campaigned for Brexit party candidates to stand down when it was worried they would split the leave vote and damaging Johnson’s chances of winning.Farage was referring to the Daily Mail, which campaigned for Brexit party candidates to stand down when it was worried they would split the leave vote and damaging Johnson’s chances of winning.
Farage said that after the election he would write a book about the campaign making the case for proportional representation. He said it would cover:Farage said that after the election he would write a book about the campaign making the case for proportional representation. He said it would cover:
One of the ironies of this campaign is that the Brexit party, which is generally seen as a reactionary, rightwing outfit, is the party that is probably doing most in this campaign to champion electoral reform, a cause generally associated with the progressive left. The Liberal Democrats used to be the most vocal advocates of PR. They still support it, but it is not an issue they highlight much. This is probably a consequence of Nick Clegg’s doomed referendum on the alternative vote in 2011, which effectively killed PR as an issue in mainstream politics for the rest of the decade.One of the ironies of this campaign is that the Brexit party, which is generally seen as a reactionary, rightwing outfit, is the party that is probably doing most in this campaign to champion electoral reform, a cause generally associated with the progressive left. The Liberal Democrats used to be the most vocal advocates of PR. They still support it, but it is not an issue they highlight much. This is probably a consequence of Nick Clegg’s doomed referendum on the alternative vote in 2011, which effectively killed PR as an issue in mainstream politics for the rest of the decade.
The second stop of the day for the PM was a brief visit to a catering firm called Red Olive, in the Derby North constituency, where former Labour MP Chris Williamson is standing as an independent after being suspended over antisemitism.The second stop of the day for the PM was a brief visit to a catering firm called Red Olive, in the Derby North constituency, where former Labour MP Chris Williamson is standing as an independent after being suspended over antisemitism.
Boris Johnson helped to put the lid on a pie and brush it with egg wash, before placing it in the oven (“oven ready”: get it?).Boris Johnson helped to put the lid on a pie and brush it with egg wash, before placing it in the oven (“oven ready”: get it?).
He then took another pie, which had already been cooked, out of the oven and displayed it for the cameras. Perhaps it represented Theresa May’s deal.He then took another pie, which had already been cooked, out of the oven and displayed it for the cameras. Perhaps it represented Theresa May’s deal.
“How can we express this deal more succinctly or more clearly?” he asked.“How can we express this deal more succinctly or more clearly?” he asked.
Here is the story from my colleagues Heather Stewart and Aamna Modhin about Boris Johnson’s unconventional approach to avoiding a TV interview this morning.Here is the story from my colleagues Heather Stewart and Aamna Modhin about Boris Johnson’s unconventional approach to avoiding a TV interview this morning.
I’m standing in a sunny rugby club car park in Hersham, in the Surrey commuter belt, for the first stop of the Lib Dems’ final election push.I’m standing in a sunny rugby club car park in Hersham, in the Surrey commuter belt, for the first stop of the Lib Dems’ final election push.
They have used both their bright orange battlebuses – one diesel, one electric – to bring along Jo Swinson as well as their deputy leader, Ed Davey. The buses will now head off on different routes, but both focusing on London and surrounding commuter towns – where the party hopes tactical voting could help them overturn big Conservativemajorities from 2017.They have used both their bright orange battlebuses – one diesel, one electric – to bring along Jo Swinson as well as their deputy leader, Ed Davey. The buses will now head off on different routes, but both focusing on London and surrounding commuter towns – where the party hopes tactical voting could help them overturn big Conservativemajorities from 2017.
Hersham is in Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton constituency, where polling shows he is vulnerable to the Lib Dems if enough Labour voters switch sides.Hersham is in Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton constituency, where polling shows he is vulnerable to the Lib Dems if enough Labour voters switch sides.
Swinson’s brief speech to activists was a summary of the party’s late-campaign message – rather than arguing she can become PM, the aim is to, as she put it, “Stop Brexit, stop Boris”.Swinson’s brief speech to activists was a summary of the party’s late-campaign message – rather than arguing she can become PM, the aim is to, as she put it, “Stop Brexit, stop Boris”.
She exported the activists to make a final push for voters. As with many election events, there were no actual members of the public here – it was staged in part to buoy local members, but also for the TV and photo optics.She exported the activists to make a final push for voters. As with many election events, there were no actual members of the public here – it was staged in part to buoy local members, but also for the TV and photo optics.
Next stop is Guildford, I’m told.Next stop is Guildford, I’m told.
Farage says he expects turnout tomorrow to be lower than it was in 2017, when it was 69%. He says he thinks people are fed up of being asked to vote repeatedly. And he says he thinks Labour voters will stay at home because they dislike Jeremy Corbyn.Farage says he expects turnout tomorrow to be lower than it was in 2017, when it was 69%. He says he thinks people are fed up of being asked to vote repeatedly. And he says he thinks Labour voters will stay at home because they dislike Jeremy Corbyn.
After the election Farage intends to write a short book about the campaign. He says one of the points he will be making is that first-past-the-post needs to go. He says it may have worked in the past, but it does not work now. And he claims it encourages “endless negativity”, because it encourages parties to campaign negatively, instead of focusing on their positive message. He sums up:After the election Farage intends to write a short book about the campaign. He says one of the points he will be making is that first-past-the-post needs to go. He says it may have worked in the past, but it does not work now. And he claims it encourages “endless negativity”, because it encourages parties to campaign negatively, instead of focusing on their positive message. He sums up:
And that’s it. The Farage speech is over.And that’s it. The Farage speech is over.
Nigel Farage is speaking at the campaign event in Doncaster now. (See 10.18am.)Nigel Farage is speaking at the campaign event in Doncaster now. (See 10.18am.)
He says he expects the Conservatives to win. But he says that he thinks Britain will face by another Brexit crisis in May, when the government comes under pressure to agree to an extension to the transition period.He says he expects the Conservatives to win. But he says that he thinks Britain will face by another Brexit crisis in May, when the government comes under pressure to agree to an extension to the transition period.
He is now complaining about there being too much nastiness in politics. Brexit party candidates have faced horrible abuse, he claims.He is now complaining about there being too much nastiness in politics. Brexit party candidates have faced horrible abuse, he claims.
Nicola Sturgeon has launched the final day of the Scottish National party’s election campaign with an “open letter” to voters making a direct attack on Boris Johnson’s character and conduct.Nicola Sturgeon has launched the final day of the Scottish National party’s election campaign with an “open letter” to voters making a direct attack on Boris Johnson’s character and conduct.
Setting off at a greengrocers cooperative in Edinburgh South – a brave choice given the seat is held by Labour with a 15,000-vote majority, Scotland’s largest - Sturgeon hopes to cement her line the SNP is the best choice for anti-Brexit voters in Scotland.Setting off at a greengrocers cooperative in Edinburgh South – a brave choice given the seat is held by Labour with a 15,000-vote majority, Scotland’s largest - Sturgeon hopes to cement her line the SNP is the best choice for anti-Brexit voters in Scotland.
The SNP has shifted Sturgeon’s core campaign message away from the heavy focus it first had on promoting a second independence referendum next year. Recent opinion polls have shown the independence message has not been landing with voters; a YouGov poll for the Times last week found backing for independence had fallen five points to 44%, excluding don’t knows.The SNP has shifted Sturgeon’s core campaign message away from the heavy focus it first had on promoting a second independence referendum next year. Recent opinion polls have shown the independence message has not been landing with voters; a YouGov poll for the Times last week found backing for independence had fallen five points to 44%, excluding don’t knows.
Arguing that SNP candidates are the closest challengers in all 13 seats being defended by the Scottish Conservatives, she put heavy emphasis on Johnson’s personality, and the SNP’s centre-left anti-austerity credentials. Her statement said:Arguing that SNP candidates are the closest challengers in all 13 seats being defended by the Scottish Conservatives, she put heavy emphasis on Johnson’s personality, and the SNP’s centre-left anti-austerity credentials. Her statement said:
Tilting heavily at Labour voters, she added:Tilting heavily at Labour voters, she added:
YouGov’s final MRP poll, which found the Tories could win 339 seats across the UK, forecast the SNP will win 41 seats, lower than the party’s expectations. It said the Scottish Tories will hold nine, losing four it won in 2017, the Lib Dems hold its four wins in 2017, while Labour could hold five seats, despite repeated polls suggesting it could only retain Edinburgh South.YouGov’s final MRP poll, which found the Tories could win 339 seats across the UK, forecast the SNP will win 41 seats, lower than the party’s expectations. It said the Scottish Tories will hold nine, losing four it won in 2017, the Lib Dems hold its four wins in 2017, while Labour could hold five seats, despite repeated polls suggesting it could only retain Edinburgh South.
Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, is due to speak at an event in Doncaster shortly. There is a live feed of the event here.Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, is due to speak at an event in Doncaster shortly. There is a live feed of the event here.
Andy Stewart, the Brexit party candidate in Doncaster, is speaking at the moment, claiming that leave supports are the victims of a form of “racism of opinion”, because people are discriminating against them for what they think.Andy Stewart, the Brexit party candidate in Doncaster, is speaking at the moment, claiming that leave supports are the victims of a form of “racism of opinion”, because people are discriminating against them for what they think.
As we reported earlier (see 8.39am), Boris Johnson was seen scurrying for cover earlier this morning when a reporter from ITV’s Good Morning Britain tried to get him live on air for an interview with Piers Morgan and Susanna Reid. Johnson ended up heading off into what seemed to be a large, industrial fridge.
Here is some Guardian video of the incident.
Ruth Davidson, the former Scottish Conservative leader, has promised to swim naked in Loch Ness if the SNP win 50 seats at the election. Writing in the Daily Telegraph, she said conditions were markedly different from 2015, when the SNP won 56 seats, and that she did not expect them to reach 50. In 2017 the SNP won 35 seats. Davidson wrote:
The YouGov MRP poll released last night, which is thought to be one of the best guides to what might happen in the election, suggested the SNP would win 41 seats.
Neale Hanvey, the candidate sacked by the Scottish National party over antisemitic social media posts, will still be announced as the SNP MP for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath if he wins on Thursday.
Hanvey has continued campaigning to win, using the SNP’s yellow colour and typefaces, despite being officially dropped by the party after he admitting two weeks ago to two antisemitic posts, one using material from the Kremlin-funded Sputnik website.
Fife council has said because Hanvey was dropped after nominations closed, he will be described as the SNP’s candidate when the results are declared.
That raises the stakes for the SNP, since Nicola Sturgeon has been highly critical of Labour’s failure to tackle its antisemitism crisis. Hanvey’s party membership was suspended when he was dropped as its candidate; it still needs to put him through a full disciplinary hearing or allow him to rejoin the party. He wants to be readmitted.
Fife council has also said the SNP has not officially told its returning officer Hanvey has been dropped. The council said on Tuesday morning it has only had an email from Hanvey’s SNP election agent, David Barratt, simply saying he was no longer in that post.
The SNP disputed that. “Fife council was informed on 29 November,” a spokesman said. “We would expect the returning officer to be fully aware that political parties have no ability under electoral law to withdraw a candidate after the close of nominations.”
Although Hanvey has been publicly disavowed by the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish Labour officials still believe he could beat the Labour incumbent Lesley Laird, who regained the seat for Labour by a very narrow 259-vote margin in 2017.
They say SNP activists have ignored an instruction from Sturgeon to stop campaigning for Hanvey. His Facebook page still carries SNP videos and his leaflets reproduce the ballot paper which shows his name beside the SNP logo.
Labour officials believe the SNP has deliberately taken a soft-touch approach to avoid alienating activists. “They could be so much more robust than they have been,” said one. After the Labour candidate in Falkirk was sacked for antisemitism, every Labour members was stood down. “You won’t find anyone campaigning for that candidate,” he said.
In his speech in Govan Jeremy Corbyn also said that voting Labour was the only way to beat the politics of despair in Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, has responded on Twitter, arguing that Corbyn is wrong because the SNP are best placed to defeat the Tories in Scotland.
Jeremy Corbyn told activists in Glasgow this morning that the country could defeat the politics of despair and division, in a rousing speech as he begins a final day tour of the UK. He said:
Activists were in buoyant mood following the release of YouGov’s second constituency-by-constituency poll overnight, which suggests that – while the Tories remain the favourites – the possibility of a hung parliament can not be ruled out.
Glasgow was the first stop in a tour that will take Corbyn to the north of England and the Midlands, before ending with a rally in Hoxton, east London tonight.
The early campaign stop took place in the constituency of Glasgow South West, where Labour’s Matt Kerr is hoping you overturn the SNP majority of just 60 votes in 2017. The Nationalists’ Chris Stephens, a former trade union official, has held the seat in the SNP landslide of 2015.
Activists held up signs reading ‘scrap universal credit’ as they gathered in front of the Govan Cross Christmas tree, and shouted “Thank you Jeremy”.
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Aamna Mohdin.
Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, is being interviewed on Today.
Q: Dave Merritt, whose son Jack was killed in the London Bridge terror attack, has accused Boris Johnson of exploiting this attack for political purposes.
Gove pays tribute to Jack Merritt. And he stresses the importance of rehabilitation. But he says that, particularly in relation to Islamist terrorism, sentencing policy must keep people safe.
Q: Dave Merritt says there should have been a dignified response from politicians.
Gove says his heart goes out to Merritt. He cannot think what he must be going through. But politicians must answer questions about policy, he says.
Q: Was it dignified for the PM, when he was asked to look at a picture of a sick child sleeping on a hospital floor, to ignore it and put the phone in his pocket?
Gove says Johnson did look at the photograph. He sent Matt Hancock, the health secretary, to the hospital.
Q: He put the phone in his pocket.
That was “a single moment of absent-mindedness”, says Gove.
Boris Johnson’s first stop in West Yorkshire got off to a shaky start.
Johnson was ambushed by Good Morning Britain reporter Jonathan Swain in Leeds before the aide mouthed “oh for f***’s sake”. The show’s hosts, Piers Morgan and Susanna Reid, were both shocked by the aide’s reaction. “The look on his face,” Reid exclaims.
During the exchange, reporter Swain asks if Johnson if he will come on the programme and “deliver on your promise to talk to Piers and Susanna”.
When Swain presses the prime minister, stating he is live on the show, Johnson replies to say “I’ll be with you in a second” and walks off, before Piers exclaims “he’s gone into the fridge”. Johnson walks inside freezer with his aides. One person can be heard saying: “It’s a bunker.”
“It’s a very frosty reception we’ve had so far,” Swain said after Johnson disappeared, to which Morgan responds: “That was heroic work.”
UPDATE: Here is some video of the incident.
Boris Johnson began the final day of general election campaigning with a chilly pre-dawn visit to a business called Modern Milkman, in the Tory-held constituency of Pudsey, in Yorkshire.
He donned an overall and helped load a minibus with crates of milk and orange juice.
Journalists were then loaded back on the Get Brexit Done bus and driven to a pleasant residential street in nearby Guiseley, where Johnson made a delivery to one handpicked house, chatting to a delighted resident.
Now we’re back on the bus, with another four stops to go today, taking in Wales and Essex before ending the day with a rally in London.