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| Coronavirus May Delay Hard-Fought U.S. Trade Wins in China | Coronavirus May Delay Hard-Fought U.S. Trade Wins in China |
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| WASHINGTON — The rapidly spreading coronavirus could claim one more victim: the United States-China trade deal. | WASHINGTON — The rapidly spreading coronavirus could claim one more victim: the United States-China trade deal. |
| The virus, which has killed more than 360 people and sickened thousands, is taking a heavy toll on China’s economy by halting factory work, grounding flights and disrupting supply chains. It is also likely to slow China’s progress in meeting the commitments it agreed to as part of the initial trade deal that the Trump administration signed with Chinese officials last month. | The virus, which has killed more than 360 people and sickened thousands, is taking a heavy toll on China’s economy by halting factory work, grounding flights and disrupting supply chains. It is also likely to slow China’s progress in meeting the commitments it agreed to as part of the initial trade deal that the Trump administration signed with Chinese officials last month. |
| Under the terms of the agreement, China has pledged to purchase over the next two years an additional $200 billion of American goods, including soybeans, machinery and energy products. In order to reach those lofty sums, Chinese companies would soon need to begin purchasing large amounts of American products. | Under the terms of the agreement, China has pledged to purchase over the next two years an additional $200 billion of American goods, including soybeans, machinery and energy products. In order to reach those lofty sums, Chinese companies would soon need to begin purchasing large amounts of American products. |
| The Chinese government is also supposed to act quickly to open its markets for American agricultural and financial firms, making major reforms to those sectors within months. | The Chinese government is also supposed to act quickly to open its markets for American agricultural and financial firms, making major reforms to those sectors within months. |
| But with factories and stores throughout China shuttered and government officials focused on containing the virus, Beijing will have less capacity to meet President Trump’s terms, analysts say. | But with factories and stores throughout China shuttered and government officials focused on containing the virus, Beijing will have less capacity to meet President Trump’s terms, analysts say. |
| “It could be problematic, particularly for manufacturers,” said Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. | “It could be problematic, particularly for manufacturers,” said Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. |
| She pointed to one example: Grounded flights and less tourism will weigh on Chinese airlines, potentially reducing their purchases of new American aircraft this year. | She pointed to one example: Grounded flights and less tourism will weigh on Chinese airlines, potentially reducing their purchases of new American aircraft this year. |
| “How is the U.S. going to handle this? We don’t really know,” she said. | “How is the U.S. going to handle this? We don’t really know,” she said. |
| Karthik Natarajan, a supply chain expert at the University of Minnesota, said the closing of cities and factories was severely affecting manufacturing and travel. | Karthik Natarajan, a supply chain expert at the University of Minnesota, said the closing of cities and factories was severely affecting manufacturing and travel. |
| “Parts of the deal are set to go into effect by mid-February, but with the Chinese government intently focused on responding to the outbreak, developing action plans to meet the trade deal commitments might take a back seat,” he said. | “Parts of the deal are set to go into effect by mid-February, but with the Chinese government intently focused on responding to the outbreak, developing action plans to meet the trade deal commitments might take a back seat,” he said. |
| One of the final sentences of the Phase 1 trade deal may prove to be key. The provision calls for consultations between the parties if “a natural disaster or other unforeseeable event outside the control of the Parties delays a Party from timely complying with its obligations under this Agreement.” | One of the final sentences of the Phase 1 trade deal may prove to be key. The provision calls for consultations between the parties if “a natural disaster or other unforeseeable event outside the control of the Parties delays a Party from timely complying with its obligations under this Agreement.” |
| But even with a deadly disaster looming, China’s failure to meet its commitments may create some opposition in the United States, potentially returning the countries to their rockier relations before the signing of the trade deal. | But even with a deadly disaster looming, China’s failure to meet its commitments may create some opposition in the United States, potentially returning the countries to their rockier relations before the signing of the trade deal. |
| Economists have predicted a drag on global growth from the virus, at least in the short term. In the United States, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a 0.4 percentage-point reduction in first-quarter economic growth, though that effect is likely to fade. | Economists have predicted a drag on global growth from the virus, at least in the short term. In the United States, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a 0.4 percentage-point reduction in first-quarter economic growth, though that effect is likely to fade. |
| Those costs could quickly outweigh the economic benefits of the trade agreement. While the Trump administration has touted big economic gains from the pact, economists’ forecasts have been modest, since the deal leaves tariffs in place on more than $360 billion of Chinese goods. | Those costs could quickly outweigh the economic benefits of the trade agreement. While the Trump administration has touted big economic gains from the pact, economists’ forecasts have been modest, since the deal leaves tariffs in place on more than $360 billion of Chinese goods. |
| Privately, some Trump administration officials say that China may use the virus as an excuse to delay meeting its commitments, in hopes that Mr. Trump will ultimately be voted out of office this year. | Privately, some Trump administration officials say that China may use the virus as an excuse to delay meeting its commitments, in hopes that Mr. Trump will ultimately be voted out of office this year. |
| Some in China have reacted negatively to the Trump administration’s decision to restrict travel between the countries, including barring entry to all foreign nationals who recently traveled in China. | Some in China have reacted negatively to the Trump administration’s decision to restrict travel between the countries, including barring entry to all foreign nationals who recently traveled in China. |
| In a note to clients, Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, said that the Chinese government had found the American move to shut its borders “unnecessarily provocative, and it adds a sour tone on the back of the recently agreed Phase 1 trade deal,” he said. | In a note to clients, Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, said that the Chinese government had found the American move to shut its borders “unnecessarily provocative, and it adds a sour tone on the back of the recently agreed Phase 1 trade deal,” he said. |
| Michael Pillsbury, a China expert at the Hudson Institute who advises the Trump administration, said he supported the emergency measures and that they might be escalated based on the situation. | Michael Pillsbury, a China expert at the Hudson Institute who advises the Trump administration, said he supported the emergency measures and that they might be escalated based on the situation. |
| He added that the administration would have to carefully weigh the potential consequences of the virus against upsetting the relationship with China. | He added that the administration would have to carefully weigh the potential consequences of the virus against upsetting the relationship with China. |
| Updated June 5, 2020 | Updated June 5, 2020 |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| “We need to balance a defensive concern with limiting a pandemic that can harm our own economy against the desire by some to be overzealous,” Mr. Pillsbury said. Such a response could “provoke paranoia among China’s hard-liners, who already claim that the U.S. is ruthlessly exploiting the health crisis,” he said. | “We need to balance a defensive concern with limiting a pandemic that can harm our own economy against the desire by some to be overzealous,” Mr. Pillsbury said. Such a response could “provoke paranoia among China’s hard-liners, who already claim that the U.S. is ruthlessly exploiting the health crisis,” he said. |
| Comments by some American officials have stoked those concerns. In an interview with Fox Business on Thursday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared to describe the virus as presenting a possible economic opportunity for the United States. | Comments by some American officials have stoked those concerns. In an interview with Fox Business on Thursday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared to describe the virus as presenting a possible economic opportunity for the United States. |
| While Mr. Ross expressed sympathy for the victims of the coronavirus, he said it would probably facilitate the return of labor to the United States. | While Mr. Ross expressed sympathy for the victims of the coronavirus, he said it would probably facilitate the return of labor to the United States. |
| “It does give businesses yet another thing to consider when they go through their review of their supply chain,” he added. “So I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.” | “It does give businesses yet another thing to consider when they go through their review of their supply chain,” he added. “So I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.” |
| Ms. Lovely said the virus, like the American tariffs on China, has been encouraging companies to examine their supply chains and invest in manufacturing some of the same products outside China, so they are not completely dependent on one source. But often these factories are not returning to the United States. | Ms. Lovely said the virus, like the American tariffs on China, has been encouraging companies to examine their supply chains and invest in manufacturing some of the same products outside China, so they are not completely dependent on one source. But often these factories are not returning to the United States. |
| “We see a pickup in trade shares from Mexico and from Vietnam, but also some higher-income countries like South Korea and Japan,” she said. | “We see a pickup in trade shares from Mexico and from Vietnam, but also some higher-income countries like South Korea and Japan,” she said. |