This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/business/economy/coronavirus-china-trade-economy.html
The article has changed 24 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 22 | Version 23 |
|---|---|
| Coronavirus May Delay Hard-Fought U.S. Trade Wins in China | Coronavirus May Delay Hard-Fought U.S. Trade Wins in China |
| (7 days later) | |
| WASHINGTON — The rapidly spreading coronavirus could claim one more victim: the United States-China trade deal. | WASHINGTON — The rapidly spreading coronavirus could claim one more victim: the United States-China trade deal. |
| The virus, which has killed more than 360 people and sickened thousands, is taking a heavy toll on China’s economy by halting factory work, grounding flights and disrupting supply chains. It is also likely to slow China’s progress in meeting the commitments it agreed to as part of the initial trade deal that the Trump administration signed with Chinese officials last month. | The virus, which has killed more than 360 people and sickened thousands, is taking a heavy toll on China’s economy by halting factory work, grounding flights and disrupting supply chains. It is also likely to slow China’s progress in meeting the commitments it agreed to as part of the initial trade deal that the Trump administration signed with Chinese officials last month. |
| Under the terms of the agreement, China has pledged to purchase over the next two years an additional $200 billion of American goods, including soybeans, machinery and energy products. In order to reach those lofty sums, Chinese companies would soon need to begin purchasing large amounts of American products. | Under the terms of the agreement, China has pledged to purchase over the next two years an additional $200 billion of American goods, including soybeans, machinery and energy products. In order to reach those lofty sums, Chinese companies would soon need to begin purchasing large amounts of American products. |
| The Chinese government is also supposed to act quickly to open its markets for American agricultural and financial firms, making major reforms to those sectors within months. | The Chinese government is also supposed to act quickly to open its markets for American agricultural and financial firms, making major reforms to those sectors within months. |
| But with factories and stores throughout China shuttered and government officials focused on containing the virus, Beijing will have less capacity to meet President Trump’s terms, analysts say. | But with factories and stores throughout China shuttered and government officials focused on containing the virus, Beijing will have less capacity to meet President Trump’s terms, analysts say. |
| “It could be problematic, particularly for manufacturers,” said Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. | “It could be problematic, particularly for manufacturers,” said Mary E. Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. |
| She pointed to one example: Grounded flights and less tourism will weigh on Chinese airlines, potentially reducing their purchases of new American aircraft this year. | She pointed to one example: Grounded flights and less tourism will weigh on Chinese airlines, potentially reducing their purchases of new American aircraft this year. |
| “How is the U.S. going to handle this? We don’t really know,” she said. | “How is the U.S. going to handle this? We don’t really know,” she said. |
| Karthik Natarajan, a supply chain expert at the University of Minnesota, said the closing of cities and factories was severely affecting manufacturing and travel. | Karthik Natarajan, a supply chain expert at the University of Minnesota, said the closing of cities and factories was severely affecting manufacturing and travel. |
| “Parts of the deal are set to go into effect by mid-February, but with the Chinese government intently focused on responding to the outbreak, developing action plans to meet the trade deal commitments might take a back seat,” he said. | “Parts of the deal are set to go into effect by mid-February, but with the Chinese government intently focused on responding to the outbreak, developing action plans to meet the trade deal commitments might take a back seat,” he said. |
| One of the final sentences of the Phase 1 trade deal may prove to be key. The provision calls for consultations between the parties if “a natural disaster or other unforeseeable event outside the control of the Parties delays a Party from timely complying with its obligations under this Agreement.” | One of the final sentences of the Phase 1 trade deal may prove to be key. The provision calls for consultations between the parties if “a natural disaster or other unforeseeable event outside the control of the Parties delays a Party from timely complying with its obligations under this Agreement.” |
| But even with a deadly disaster looming, China’s failure to meet its commitments may create some opposition in the United States, potentially returning the countries to their rockier relations before the signing of the trade deal. | But even with a deadly disaster looming, China’s failure to meet its commitments may create some opposition in the United States, potentially returning the countries to their rockier relations before the signing of the trade deal. |
| Economists have predicted a drag on global growth from the virus, at least in the short term. In the United States, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a 0.4 percentage-point reduction in first-quarter economic growth, though that effect is likely to fade. | Economists have predicted a drag on global growth from the virus, at least in the short term. In the United States, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate a 0.4 percentage-point reduction in first-quarter economic growth, though that effect is likely to fade. |
| Those costs could quickly outweigh the economic benefits of the trade agreement. While the Trump administration has touted big economic gains from the pact, economists’ forecasts have been modest, since the deal leaves tariffs in place on more than $360 billion of Chinese goods. | Those costs could quickly outweigh the economic benefits of the trade agreement. While the Trump administration has touted big economic gains from the pact, economists’ forecasts have been modest, since the deal leaves tariffs in place on more than $360 billion of Chinese goods. |
| Privately, some Trump administration officials say that China may use the virus as an excuse to delay meeting its commitments, in hopes that Mr. Trump will ultimately be voted out of office this year. | Privately, some Trump administration officials say that China may use the virus as an excuse to delay meeting its commitments, in hopes that Mr. Trump will ultimately be voted out of office this year. |
| Some in China have reacted negatively to the Trump administration’s decision to restrict travel between the countries, including barring entry to all foreign nationals who recently traveled in China. | Some in China have reacted negatively to the Trump administration’s decision to restrict travel between the countries, including barring entry to all foreign nationals who recently traveled in China. |
| In a note to clients, Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, said that the Chinese government had found the American move to shut its borders “unnecessarily provocative, and it adds a sour tone on the back of the recently agreed Phase 1 trade deal,” he said. | In a note to clients, Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, said that the Chinese government had found the American move to shut its borders “unnecessarily provocative, and it adds a sour tone on the back of the recently agreed Phase 1 trade deal,” he said. |
| Michael Pillsbury, a China expert at the Hudson Institute who advises the Trump administration, said he supported the emergency measures and that they might be escalated based on the situation. | Michael Pillsbury, a China expert at the Hudson Institute who advises the Trump administration, said he supported the emergency measures and that they might be escalated based on the situation. |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| He added that the administration would have to carefully weigh the potential consequences of the virus against upsetting the relationship with China. | He added that the administration would have to carefully weigh the potential consequences of the virus against upsetting the relationship with China. |
| “We need to balance a defensive concern with limiting a pandemic that can harm our own economy against the desire by some to be overzealous,” Mr. Pillsbury said. Such a response could “provoke paranoia among China’s hard-liners, who already claim that the U.S. is ruthlessly exploiting the health crisis,” he said. | “We need to balance a defensive concern with limiting a pandemic that can harm our own economy against the desire by some to be overzealous,” Mr. Pillsbury said. Such a response could “provoke paranoia among China’s hard-liners, who already claim that the U.S. is ruthlessly exploiting the health crisis,” he said. |
| Comments by some American officials have stoked those concerns. In an interview with Fox Business on Thursday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared to describe the virus as presenting a possible economic opportunity for the United States. | Comments by some American officials have stoked those concerns. In an interview with Fox Business on Thursday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appeared to describe the virus as presenting a possible economic opportunity for the United States. |
| While Mr. Ross expressed sympathy for the victims of the coronavirus, he said it would probably facilitate the return of labor to the United States. | While Mr. Ross expressed sympathy for the victims of the coronavirus, he said it would probably facilitate the return of labor to the United States. |
| “It does give businesses yet another thing to consider when they go through their review of their supply chain,” he added. “So I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.” | “It does give businesses yet another thing to consider when they go through their review of their supply chain,” he added. “So I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America.” |
| Ms. Lovely said the virus, like the American tariffs on China, has been encouraging companies to examine their supply chains and invest in manufacturing some of the same products outside China, so they are not completely dependent on one source. But often these factories are not returning to the United States. | Ms. Lovely said the virus, like the American tariffs on China, has been encouraging companies to examine their supply chains and invest in manufacturing some of the same products outside China, so they are not completely dependent on one source. But often these factories are not returning to the United States. |
| “We see a pickup in trade shares from Mexico and from Vietnam, but also some higher-income countries like South Korea and Japan,” she said. | “We see a pickup in trade shares from Mexico and from Vietnam, but also some higher-income countries like South Korea and Japan,” she said. |