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Budget 2020: Sunak's plans for current spending 'nothing like as generous as they appear', says IFS - live news Budget 2020: Sunak's plans for current spending 'nothing like as generous as they appear', says IFS - live news
(32 minutes later)
Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happenRolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen
Jeremy Corbyn’s successor as Labour leader will now be announced at a scaled-back event as the party postpones and alters meetings due to the coronavirus outbreak, the Press Association reports. The PA story goes on:
Nicola Sturgeon’s decision to announce the outcome of today’s Cobra meeting before Boris Johnson (see 3.33pm) has gone down badly with London, BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham reports.
Earlier I quoted the Institute for Fiscal Studies saying yesterday’s budget was less generous on current spending than it appeared. (See 1.56pm.) These two charts from the detailed presentation on public services (pdf) explain why in more detail.
This chart shows how, in real terms, day-to-day spending on public services will be higher in 2024-25 than it was in 2009-10, at the end of the last Labour government. But there’s a catch, or rather two. First, if you look at day-to-day spending on public services per head, it is no higher than it was in 2009-10 (because the population has got bigger). And, second, if you take out health, which received a sizeable, long-term spending increase under Theresa May, real-terms spending on everything else is lower than at the end of the Labour government, both overall (7% lower) and per person (14% lower).
But the IFS also says these figures are potentially misleading, for two reasons. First, they include the £11bn a year that the UK will save because it won’t have to make annual payments to the EU - but they do not take into account the £7-8bn a year that the EU used to spend in the UK. And, second, they include an extra £5.5bn a year that the government is spending because of changes to the rules on employer pension contributions. The IFS argues that taking out these figures allows for a more reliable comparison with the past, and on that basis it has produced a chart with adjusted figures (see below).
On this measure, day-to-day public spending in real terms will still be higher in 2024-25 than in 2009-10, but only 5% higher, not 9% higher. But day-to-day spending per person ends up being 4% lower in 2024-25 in real terms than in 2009-10, overall spending excluding health is 12% lower, and spending per person excluding health is 19% lower.
Sturgeon is now taking questions.Sturgeon is now taking questions.
Q: What sort of gatherings do you want to cancel?Q: What sort of gatherings do you want to cancel?
Ones that put pressure on emergency services, she says. So that would not mean church events. But it would mean sports events.Ones that put pressure on emergency services, she says. So that would not mean church events. But it would mean sports events.
She says, as the weeks go on, the emergency services are going to come under growing pressure. That is why she wants to ease the pressure on them.She says, as the weeks go on, the emergency services are going to come under growing pressure. That is why she wants to ease the pressure on them.
She says she will publish further details in due course.She says she will publish further details in due course.
Sturgeon says the government’s focus is on seeking to delay the spread of Covid-19.Sturgeon says the government’s focus is on seeking to delay the spread of Covid-19.
Sturgeon says moving from “contain” to “delay” means that anyone with coronavirus-type symptoms will be advised to stay at home for seven days.Sturgeon says moving from “contain” to “delay” means that anyone with coronavirus-type symptoms will be advised to stay at home for seven days.
That means people who have a fever, or a persistent cough, she says.That means people who have a fever, or a persistent cough, she says.
She says those people do not have to see a doctor, unless their condition gets worse.She says those people do not have to see a doctor, unless their condition gets worse.
She says the UK government is not advising schools to close at the moment. But it is advising schools to cancel overseas trips.She says the UK government is not advising schools to close at the moment. But it is advising schools to cancel overseas trips.
And she says it is important for people to understand that, if schools were to close, it would not just be for a week or two. It would be until the disease had passed its peak, which would mean until the summer, she says.And she says it is important for people to understand that, if schools were to close, it would not just be for a week or two. It would be until the disease had passed its peak, which would mean until the summer, she says.
She also restates her position on mass gatherings. She says this is just a Scottish government position, not a UK government position. She repeats the point she made to the Scottish parliament earlier, when she said she wanted to cancel mass gathering primarily to ease the pressures on the emergency services. She also restates her position on mass gatherings. She says this is just a Scottish government position, not a UK government position. She repeats the point she made to the Scottish parliament earlier (see 12.57pm), when she said she wanted to cancel mass gatherings primarily to ease the pressures on the emergency services.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is holding a press briefing now. She says she will be talking about the outcome of the Cobra emergency committee, which has just concluded. She participated in the meeting, although only remotely; she has not been in London.Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is holding a press briefing now. She says she will be talking about the outcome of the Cobra emergency committee, which has just concluded. She participated in the meeting, although only remotely; she has not been in London.
She is jumping the gun on Boris Johnson, who is due to hold a press briefing later.She is jumping the gun on Boris Johnson, who is due to hold a press briefing later.
These are from the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner.These are from the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner.
The Scottish Green party has cancelled its spring conference, which was due to take place on Saturday 28 March, because of the coronavirus outbreak after the number of cases declared in Scotland jumped to 60 on Thursday.The Scottish Green party has cancelled its spring conference, which was due to take place on Saturday 28 March, because of the coronavirus outbreak after the number of cases declared in Scotland jumped to 60 on Thursday.
Ross Greer MSP, a co-chair of the party’s executive, said:Ross Greer MSP, a co-chair of the party’s executive, said:
The conference was due to be held at the Adam Smith theatre in Kirkcaldy, the birth place of the legendary 18th century economist.The conference was due to be held at the Adam Smith theatre in Kirkcaldy, the birth place of the legendary 18th century economist.
Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister, promised to unveil a bill on Wednesday next week to introduce a statutory presumption against prosecution for veterans in the Commons, as he made a statement about mental health in the armed forces in the morning.Johnny Mercer, the veterans minister, promised to unveil a bill on Wednesday next week to introduce a statutory presumption against prosecution for veterans in the Commons, as he made a statement about mental health in the armed forces in the morning.
The minister said he was meeting a pledges to legislate in this area, but would not say how or whether the measures would apply to Northern Ireland, where many violent incidents from the time of the Troubles are only now beginning to be investigated by legal authorities.The minister said he was meeting a pledges to legislate in this area, but would not say how or whether the measures would apply to Northern Ireland, where many violent incidents from the time of the Troubles are only now beginning to be investigated by legal authorities.
“The days of lawyers running amok in our services and in our veterans community, trying to rewrite history, in order to make money, are over,” Mercer added.“The days of lawyers running amok in our services and in our veterans community, trying to rewrite history, in order to make money, are over,” Mercer added.
The party’s election manifesto promised to “introduce new legislation to tackle the vexatious legal claims that undermine our armed forces”.The party’s election manifesto promised to “introduce new legislation to tackle the vexatious legal claims that undermine our armed forces”.
In the last parliament Penny Mordaunt, the then defence secretary, proposed a statutory presumption against prosecutions against veterans for incidents taking place 10 or more years ago, covering Iraq, Afghanistan and any other armed conflict overseas - but left open the question of Northern Ireland, prompting pressure from Conservative backbenchers for it to be included.In the last parliament Penny Mordaunt, the then defence secretary, proposed a statutory presumption against prosecutions against veterans for incidents taking place 10 or more years ago, covering Iraq, Afghanistan and any other armed conflict overseas - but left open the question of Northern Ireland, prompting pressure from Conservative backbenchers for it to be included.
Mercer was challenged by newly elected Alliance party MP Stephen Farry, who voiced concern about the impending legislation. He said:Mercer was challenged by newly elected Alliance party MP Stephen Farry, who voiced concern about the impending legislation. He said:
Farry warned that some veterans could get “unnecessary protection, warping the rule of law” in relation to historic claims as a result.Farry warned that some veterans could get “unnecessary protection, warping the rule of law” in relation to historic claims as a result.
In reply Mercer said that when to comes to Northern Ireland “I tread down this path with utmost care”.In reply Mercer said that when to comes to Northern Ireland “I tread down this path with utmost care”.
The Scottish government is to get an £350m as its share of the extra money that Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, released in yesterday’s budget to boost public spending to cope with the coronavirus crisis.
A UK government source said Wales would receive £220m extra and Northern Ireland £120m.
The money has not been ringfenced, allowing all three devolved administrations to spend it as they see fit, but they will face significant political and public pressure to focus on tackling the pandemic’s impacts on the NHS, public services and businesses.
The Scottish health secretary, Jeane Freeman, was challenged on BBC Radio Scotland about the availability of protective equipment such as face masks when doctors across Scotland texted the BBC to say they had not been issued with any or had run out.
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, told Holyrood today that the NHS would be put under great strain. “Our emergency services are likely to suffer from higher than normal sickness absence rates in the weeks and months ahead and our NHS in particular will be under significant pressure,” she said.
Kate Forbes, Scotland’s finance secretary, said yesterday her government had not yet been told how much extra money it would get but was pleased the Treasury was increasing funding.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies is holding its traditional day-after briefing on the budget. It started with an overview from Paul Johnson, its director, and the full text is now available on the IFS website.
Johnson said the economy was not in a robust state for dealing with a shock like coronavirus. And failure to negotiate a trade deal with the EU this year could make that worse, he said. He explained:
He said that if coronavirus had a long-term impact on the economy, Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, would have to revise his strategy. Johnson said:
He said the plans for current spending were “nothing like as generous as they appear”. He explained:
He said overall spending is due to rise by 9% in real terms between 2019-20 and 2023-24, “largely paid for by extra borrowing”. He said public spending would stabilise at around 41% of national income, “above its pre-crisis level and bigger than at any point between the mid 1980s and the start of the financial crisis”.
But he said current spending per head for most public services would remain well below 2010-11 levels in 2024-25. He went on:
He said although public spending was rising, it was not rising by as much as Labour proposed in its 2019 manifesto.
He said he thought the £12bn package of measures to help the country tackle coronavirus was “fairly well designed”.
Here are two of the most striking charts from the Resolution Foundation’s report (pdf) on yesterday’s budget.
The UK’s medium-term outlook for growth is “dismal”, the foundation says. It explains:
The overall impact of tax and benefit changes since 2015 has been highly regressive, the foundation says. It explains:
President Trump did not contact Boris Johnson directly before his decision to ban citizens from 26 EU countries from entering the US for the next 30 days, No 10 has said. Britain and Ireland are exempt from the ruling because they are not in the Schengen border-free travel agreement.
No 10 said today the government had no plans for the UK to follow the US and ban travel from EU countries. The prime minister’s spokesman said:
Asked about concerns that other countries were taking a different approach to the virus, such as Ireland and Denmark, where they have already moved to school closures, the spokesman said: “We believe that we are taking our decisions based on the best scientific and medical advice that is available.”
This is what Nicola Sturgeon told MSPs in the Scottish parliament about her plan to cancel mass gatherings in Scotland. She said that she would be participating in the Cobra meeting chaired by the prime minister this afternoon to discuss coronavirus, and she said she expected the UK to move from the “contain” phase of the strategy to the “delay” phase. She went on:
The Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen is in self-isolation, having had lunch with the health minister Nadine Dorries who has tested positive for coronavirus, the Sun’s Kate Ferguson reports.
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has told the Scottish parliament that she is minded to recommend the cancellation of events involving crowds or more than 500 people from next week, the BBC’s Glenn Campbell reports.
Sturgeon set out part of her reasoning on this in an interview this morning. (See 11.01am.)
Yesterday the Liberal Democrats announced that they were cancelling their spring conference in York this weekend because of coronavirus. Now Plaid Cymru has announced that it has cancelled its spring conference in Llangollen next weekend for the same reason. Plaid said it thought this was “the most responsible course of action for the party to take in the current circumstances”.
At the No 10 lobby briefing this morning Downing Street insisted that Ireland’s decision to close schools, colleges and childcare facilities because of coronavirus would not lead to Northern Ireland being treated differently from the rest of the UK. The prime minister’s spokesman said:
Asked about the difference in the approach in Dublin, the spokesman added: “We follow our own advice, they will do the same.”
Will Tanner, head of the centre-right thinktank Onward, has welcomed the planning measures announced by Robert Jenrick in the Commons. His tweet includes a link to the 11-page government document (pdf) summarising the measures. There is also a press release here.