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Electoral Commission calls for local elections to be postponed as a result of coronavirus - live news Boris Johnson says coronavirus is 'worst public health crisis for a generation' as UK enters 'delay' phase – live news
(32 minutes later)
Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happenRolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen
Johnson is winding up now.
He ends by repeating the point about how if anyone has a high temperature, or a new and continuous cough, they should stay at home.
That is the way to “squash the sombrero”, he says, referring to the graph illustrating the peak (see below).
And that’s it. I will post a summary and reaction shortly.
Q: How confident are we in the data?
Johnson says some countries are having some success in greatly reducing the incidence of the disease.
He says there are measures that could be taken of a draconian nature. But that might just lead to the disease surging back, he says.
Whitty says there are some things we are very confident of, like the mortality rate.
But we don’t know how many people get the disease without symptoms.
He says, depending on what the answer to that is, the disease has very different outcomes.
Q: When do you think older people will be asked to stay at home? And how old is old?
Vallance says the peak is probably 10 to 14 weeks away, maybe longer. Even to cover the peak, you would need to ensure that those sorts of measures would be in place for 12 or 13 weeks or so.
Whitty say people may get individual advice from their GP. But national guidance will also be issued at the appropriate time, he says.
Q: What do you mean by people volunteering?
Johnson says he hopes people will think of their neighbours, and consider what they can do to help them. The advice is not to go within two metres of them.
Vallance says the behavioural science says, at times like this, you see an outbreak of altruism.
Q: You said we were four week behind Italy. Might we have to introduce Italian-style measures?
Vallance says the UK may be four weeks behind in terms of the scale of the outbreak. You would expect it to follow a similar trajectory in terms of numbers.. What they are proposing today are measures to deflect that, he says.
Q: Are you planning any register to help people volunteer?
Johnson says Matt Hancock is setting up a system for people who want to come back to the NHS to offer their services.
Q: Some workers will not be covered by our statutory sick pay issue. Could you extend SSP?
Johnson says the government is changing benefits rules. It will do everything necessary to ensure people are not penalised for doing the right thing.
Q: Are you worried about getting it yourself? You have to meet a lot of people in your job. And who would step in if you were incapacitated?
Johnson just says he is washing his hands.
Johnson asks Vallance to address the point about whether stopping flights is effective.
Vallance says, when they looked at this in reduction to China, they thought at best stopping flights would delay the disease by a day or two.
And he says screening at airports sound sensible. But in the US the first case went through screening.
On sports events, he says a single individual on average infects two or three others.
That means there is a very low probability of infecting a large number of people in a studium.
Most infection takes places when people are with friends, not when they are in large groups.
That means, perversely, banning large events could be counter-productive.
He says the way to fight this is to reduce infection across households and across people who are affected.
Q: Can you understand why people watching this will think you are doing little, when they look at the kind of things happening in Ireland?
Johnson says he is guided by the best scientific advice.
Q: The German chancellor said 70% of people could get this. Do you agree? And how many people might die?
Vallance says getting people to stay at home will give you a 20 to 25% reduction in the peak.
And he says isolating the elderly can reduce the death rate by about 30%, he says.
He says it is important not to go to things that sound sensible, but have little effect.
And you don’t want to introduce measures that only apply for a week or two, he says. To be effective, these measure will have to last longer.
Whitty says closing schools has big knock-on effects for the whole of society.
On numbers, Whitty says he has been absolute level with the public on numbers on which he has confidence.
He says his top planning assumption is 80% of people getting the illness.
He says he and Vallance agree on a mortality rate of 1% - which would be higher for vulnerable groups, and lower for other groups.
But he says what he does not want to do is give a figure for how many people have been affected. He says he does not want to do that because he does not know the numbers.
Whitty says asking people to stay at home with minor symptoms sounds easy.
But in practice it will be harder for people than they think.
Johnson is now taking questions.
Q: How sure are you that your approach is right?
Johnson says he is guided by science in everything he does.
He returns to the point about elderly people. He says you need to time the period of isolation for them at the point where they are most at risk.
He says in Scotland there is a particular issue with the resilience of public services. In the UK this issue will have to be kept under review too, he says.
He says the UK government is not saying no to the sort of measure announced by Nicola Sturgeon. (See 12.57pm.)
Whitty says the government is also looking at mitigation measures.
First, that involves reducing the peak.
And, second, that involves increasing the capacity of the NHS.
Whitty says, at the next stage, the government will want to introduce social distancing measures for people who are vulnerable or who have underlying conditions.
But it is too early to recommend that, he says.
He says this would lead to other problems, like loneliness.
But at some point it will be necessary to do this, he says.
And Whitty says there will now no longer by any geographical limits to testing.
Whitty says there are other changes too.
The government no longer needs to identify every case, he says. People staying at home will not need testing. Testing will focus on people in hospitals with symptoms.
Whitty says it is important that people with mild symptoms do not call 111.
But if their conditions deteriorate, they should seek medical help.
Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, is speaking now.
He says the contain phase is over, and the government is moving on to the delay phase.
All four chief medical officers have agreed to raise the risk level to high.
He says it is important not to ask people too early to respond. There is a danger of fatigue.
Washing hands is very important, he says.
He says, from today, the government is asking people who have a persistent cough which is new, or a temperature, to stay at home for seven days.
It is important to explain why, he says.
First, he says this reduces the risk to older people and people with underlying conditions.
Second, he says this can reduce the peak.
And, third, this can delay the peak, he says.
He says they have chosen seven days because the illness is most infectious at the beginning.
He says the evidence suggests that people with mild symptoms can spread the disease to a lot of people.
Vallance says the timing is critical: if you tell people to stay at home too early, they get fed up with this at the point where you need them to stay at home.Vallance says the timing is critical: if you tell people to stay at home too early, they get fed up with this at the point where you need them to stay at home.
On closing schools, he says for this to be effective, closures would have to last from 13 to 16 weeks. He says children would, in practice, keep mixing with each other during that period. And they might get sent to stay with grandparents, which could increase the risk, he says.On closing schools, he says for this to be effective, closures would have to last from 13 to 16 weeks. He says children would, in practice, keep mixing with each other during that period. And they might get sent to stay with grandparents, which could increase the risk, he says.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, is speaking now.
This is a new disease, he says. He says no one has immunity to it.
He says it looks as if the UK is on a trajectory about four weeks behind Italy.
He shows a slide showing a peak. This shows the pattern of an infection, he says.
He says it starts with very low numbers. He says the number of infections at the moment is likely to be between 5,000 and 10,000.
Then the number of infections rise steeply, he says.
He says the government wants to do two things: to delay the peak, and to push the peak down.
He says delaying the peak pushes it into the summer, when respiratory diseases are less common.
He says it is not possible to stop everyone getting it. And it is not desirable either, he says. He says you want people to pick up immunity.
He says the disease seems to come in two phases: an early, mildish phase, and then a second phase, where the elderly and people with underlying conditions are vulnerable.
Johnson says he wants to address older people in particular. For most people this is a mild illness, but he knows they are vulnerable.
He says he wants to tell them that the government will do all it can “to help you and your family”.
The government is not just helping the economy, he says. He says he wants to stress that it is helping families.
He says he wants to end with two familiar messages.
First, it is vital to wash your hands.
And, second, the country will get through this, just as it has got through other situations like this.
Johnson says this will cause disruption across the country for many months.
He says he wants to urge people not to call 111, but to use the internet to get information if they can.
Johnson says he is not closing schools now.
He says the advice is that his could do more harm than good.
But the situation may change, he says.
Johnson says the government is considering banning large events.
He says that won’t necessarily reduce the spread. But that would ease the pressure on the emergency services, he says.
Johnson says tomorrow, if you have coronavirus symptoms, you should stay home for at least seven days.
He says people over 70 with underlying medical conditions are being advised to avoid going on cruises.
And he says schools are being advised to cancel overseas trips.
Boris Johnson is starting his press conference.
He says he has just chaired a Cobra meeting. They have done what they can to contain coronavirus, he says.
The true number of cases is higher, “perhaps much higher”, than the figures suggest, he says.
He says this is the worst public health crisis for a general. It is much more serious than flu, he says. He goes on:
The Telegraph’s science editor Sarah Knapton has a read-out from the measures being announced by the government.
Boris Johnson is about to hold a press conference to announce the decisions taken by the Corbra emergency committee this afternoon. He will appear alongside Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser.
The Electoral Commission is saying that this year’s local elections should be postponed.
The final decision is up to the government, but it would be embarrassing for ministers to ignore the commission’s advice on this issue.