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Yemen Cease-Fire Is, at Best, First Step on Long Road to Peace Yemen Cease-Fire Is, at Best, First Step on Long Road to Peace
(7 days later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — The coronavirus pandemic may help end one of the world’s nastiest wars.BEIRUT, Lebanon — The coronavirus pandemic may help end one of the world’s nastiest wars.
That hope appeared this week when the main combatants in Yemen, the poorest Arab country, laid out their visions of the path toward peace.That hope appeared this week when the main combatants in Yemen, the poorest Arab country, laid out their visions of the path toward peace.
Saudi Arabia on Wednesday announced a unilateral cease-fire to allow for talks and prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Almost simultaneously, the Houthi rebels who control the Yemeni capital unveiled their own eight-page peace plan. The United Nations, which has been struggling for years to quell Yemen’s violence, hopes to convene talks between them as early as next week.Saudi Arabia on Wednesday announced a unilateral cease-fire to allow for talks and prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Almost simultaneously, the Houthi rebels who control the Yemeni capital unveiled their own eight-page peace plan. The United Nations, which has been struggling for years to quell Yemen’s violence, hopes to convene talks between them as early as next week.
It all sounds like progress, but analysts and diplomats who track Yemen said the distance between the warring sides’ positions and the barriers that need to be cleared are so great that the new moves were — at best — opening gambits.It all sounds like progress, but analysts and diplomats who track Yemen said the distance between the warring sides’ positions and the barriers that need to be cleared are so great that the new moves were — at best — opening gambits.
The war has generated incalculable human suffering since the Saudi-led bombing and blockading of Yemen began in 2015. Tens of thousands of people have died, towns and cities have been destroyed, poverty has spread and diseases like cholera have proved hard to beat because the country’s medical system has been dismantled and many people lack clean water.The war has generated incalculable human suffering since the Saudi-led bombing and blockading of Yemen began in 2015. Tens of thousands of people have died, towns and cities have been destroyed, poverty has spread and diseases like cholera have proved hard to beat because the country’s medical system has been dismantled and many people lack clean water.
That reality would leave Yemen’s 30 million people dangerously vulnerable should the coronavirus take hold, and the country reported its first case on Friday.That reality would leave Yemen’s 30 million people dangerously vulnerable should the coronavirus take hold, and the country reported its first case on Friday.
The infected man, a 60-year-old heavy smoker, is a laborer at the port in the town of Al-Shihir in Hadramout Province, where he is believed to have caught the virus from foreign sailors. He is being treated in a hospital, and the authorities have locked down the town and dispatched soldiers to keep residents in their homes.The infected man, a 60-year-old heavy smoker, is a laborer at the port in the town of Al-Shihir in Hadramout Province, where he is believed to have caught the virus from foreign sailors. He is being treated in a hospital, and the authorities have locked down the town and dispatched soldiers to keep residents in their homes.
The Saudi cease-fire announcement came five years after the kingdom and a number of its Arab allies launched a military intervention in Yemen to try to push back the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. The Houthis had stormed the Yemeni capital, Sana, and sent the government into exile.The Saudi cease-fire announcement came five years after the kingdom and a number of its Arab allies launched a military intervention in Yemen to try to push back the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. The Houthis had stormed the Yemeni capital, Sana, and sent the government into exile.
Now, the Saudis have many reasons to look for a way out, analysts said. The war’s cost has been tremendous, and at a time when the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, wants to push through expensive efforts to diversify the Saudi economy.Now, the Saudis have many reasons to look for a way out, analysts said. The war’s cost has been tremendous, and at a time when the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, wants to push through expensive efforts to diversify the Saudi economy.
More recently, the worldwide drop in demand for oil, because of coronavirus lockdowns and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, has exacerbated the fiscal strains, reducing the price of oil to less than half of what the kingdom needs to balance its budget.More recently, the worldwide drop in demand for oil, because of coronavirus lockdowns and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, has exacerbated the fiscal strains, reducing the price of oil to less than half of what the kingdom needs to balance its budget.
Saudi Arabia has long faced international censure for contributing to Yemen’s humanitarian collapse, criticism that would probably intensify if many Yemenis started dying of Covid-19.Saudi Arabia has long faced international censure for contributing to Yemen’s humanitarian collapse, criticism that would probably intensify if many Yemenis started dying of Covid-19.
But the kingdom may be stuck with an enemy who prefers to keep fighting. Within hours of the cease-fire’s start time of noon Thursday, there were reports of breaches.But the kingdom may be stuck with an enemy who prefers to keep fighting. Within hours of the cease-fire’s start time of noon Thursday, there were reports of breaches.
The Saudis had told the Houthis in advance that the cease-fire announcement was coming, according to a diplomat with knowledge of the exchange. But Houthi leaders have yet to issue an official response to the initiative.The Saudis had told the Houthis in advance that the cease-fire announcement was coming, according to a diplomat with knowledge of the exchange. But Houthi leaders have yet to issue an official response to the initiative.
In a telephone call, Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi leader, dismissed the Saudi announcement as “more of a continuation of the war than a cease-fire.”In a telephone call, Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi leader, dismissed the Saudi announcement as “more of a continuation of the war than a cease-fire.”
“Saudi Arabia is mobilizing its air, navy and armed forces to continue blockading Yemen, which has a far greater impact than the continuation of air bombing,” he said.“Saudi Arabia is mobilizing its air, navy and armed forces to continue blockading Yemen, which has a far greater impact than the continuation of air bombing,” he said.
Another senior Houthi official, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, released the group’s own peace proposal. It included, among other things, the end of the Saudi-led blockade, the reopening of Yemeni airports, long-term Saudi financial commitments to Yemen’s reconstruction and direct talks between the Saudis and the Houthis about Yemen’s political future — with no direct mention of the Yemeni government.Another senior Houthi official, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, released the group’s own peace proposal. It included, among other things, the end of the Saudi-led blockade, the reopening of Yemeni airports, long-term Saudi financial commitments to Yemen’s reconstruction and direct talks between the Saudis and the Houthis about Yemen’s political future — with no direct mention of the Yemeni government.
Those demands indicated that after standing in the face of the Arab world’s richest country and keeping the Yemeni capital for five years, the Houthis were in no mood to offer concessions, analysts said.Those demands indicated that after standing in the face of the Arab world’s richest country and keeping the Yemeni capital for five years, the Houthis were in no mood to offer concessions, analysts said.
“The Saudis are trying to wiggle out of the conflict, and the Houthis are grabbing them by the neck,” said Abdulghani Al-Iryani, senior researcher at the Sana Center for Strategic Studies.“The Saudis are trying to wiggle out of the conflict, and the Houthis are grabbing them by the neck,” said Abdulghani Al-Iryani, senior researcher at the Sana Center for Strategic Studies.
Updated July 7, 2020 Updated July 22, 2020
The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
The Houthi position is strengthened by military gains in recent months against the kingdom’s Yemeni allies in key provinces in central Yemen.The Houthi position is strengthened by military gains in recent months against the kingdom’s Yemeni allies in key provinces in central Yemen.
“The only thing they are good at is fighting,” Mr. Al-Iryani said of the Houthis, “and they are not going to abandon this comfortable terrain without a comprehensive agreement.”“The only thing they are good at is fighting,” Mr. Al-Iryani said of the Houthis, “and they are not going to abandon this comfortable terrain without a comprehensive agreement.”
Other analysts raised other issues that could affect the success of the Saudi cease-fire. For one, who else will honor it remains unknown.Other analysts raised other issues that could affect the success of the Saudi cease-fire. For one, who else will honor it remains unknown.
“It is unilateral, so it is not clear what the Houthis reaction is, nor how much buy-in there is from the Yemenis fighting the Houthis on the ground,” said April Longley Alley, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. “Are other Yemenis on board with this?”“It is unilateral, so it is not clear what the Houthis reaction is, nor how much buy-in there is from the Yemenis fighting the Houthis on the ground,” said April Longley Alley, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. “Are other Yemenis on board with this?”
A number of leaders in Yemen’s internationally recognized government said on Thursday that they supported the cease-fire, and Yemen’s president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, was reported to have called on loyalist troops to stop fighting. But Mr. Hadi and many of his ministers are in exile in Saudi Arabia and have little control over the fighters on the ground at home.A number of leaders in Yemen’s internationally recognized government said on Thursday that they supported the cease-fire, and Yemen’s president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, was reported to have called on loyalist troops to stop fighting. But Mr. Hadi and many of his ministers are in exile in Saudi Arabia and have little control over the fighters on the ground at home.
If the warring parties do decide to engage in talks, which would be conducted via phone and computer linkups, the United Nations has laid the diplomatic groundwork through months of discussions with both sides. But whether they would participate is far from clear.If the warring parties do decide to engage in talks, which would be conducted via phone and computer linkups, the United Nations has laid the diplomatic groundwork through months of discussions with both sides. But whether they would participate is far from clear.
“Implementing a cease-fire is no small matter, and the first test of this is going to be whether the parties show up for this virtual meeting,” Ms. Alley said.“Implementing a cease-fire is no small matter, and the first test of this is going to be whether the parties show up for this virtual meeting,” Ms. Alley said.
Even if they do, the cease-fire is unlikely to endure unless it is tied to a larger process aimed at addressing the many issues that have kept Yemenis fighting.Even if they do, the cease-fire is unlikely to endure unless it is tied to a larger process aimed at addressing the many issues that have kept Yemenis fighting.
“Without a political process undergirding a cease-fire, without a way out and without very tangible economic and humanitarian confidence-building measures, the cease-fire cannot be durable,” Ms. Alley said.“Without a political process undergirding a cease-fire, without a way out and without very tangible economic and humanitarian confidence-building measures, the cease-fire cannot be durable,” Ms. Alley said.
Saeed Al-Batati contributed reporting from Al Mukalla, Yemen, and Shuaib Almosawa from Sana.Saeed Al-Batati contributed reporting from Al Mukalla, Yemen, and Shuaib Almosawa from Sana.