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| Yemen Cease-Fire Is, at Best, First Step on Long Road to Peace | Yemen Cease-Fire Is, at Best, First Step on Long Road to Peace |
| (3 days later) | |
| BEIRUT, Lebanon — The coronavirus pandemic may help end one of the world’s nastiest wars. | BEIRUT, Lebanon — The coronavirus pandemic may help end one of the world’s nastiest wars. |
| That hope appeared this week when the main combatants in Yemen, the poorest Arab country, laid out their visions of the path toward peace. | That hope appeared this week when the main combatants in Yemen, the poorest Arab country, laid out their visions of the path toward peace. |
| Saudi Arabia on Wednesday announced a unilateral cease-fire to allow for talks and prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Almost simultaneously, the Houthi rebels who control the Yemeni capital unveiled their own eight-page peace plan. The United Nations, which has been struggling for years to quell Yemen’s violence, hopes to convene talks between them as early as next week. | Saudi Arabia on Wednesday announced a unilateral cease-fire to allow for talks and prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Almost simultaneously, the Houthi rebels who control the Yemeni capital unveiled their own eight-page peace plan. The United Nations, which has been struggling for years to quell Yemen’s violence, hopes to convene talks between them as early as next week. |
| It all sounds like progress, but analysts and diplomats who track Yemen said the distance between the warring sides’ positions and the barriers that need to be cleared are so great that the new moves were — at best — opening gambits. | It all sounds like progress, but analysts and diplomats who track Yemen said the distance between the warring sides’ positions and the barriers that need to be cleared are so great that the new moves were — at best — opening gambits. |
| The war has generated incalculable human suffering since the Saudi-led bombing and blockading of Yemen began in 2015. Tens of thousands of people have died, towns and cities have been destroyed, poverty has spread and diseases like cholera have proved hard to beat because the country’s medical system has been dismantled and many people lack clean water. | The war has generated incalculable human suffering since the Saudi-led bombing and blockading of Yemen began in 2015. Tens of thousands of people have died, towns and cities have been destroyed, poverty has spread and diseases like cholera have proved hard to beat because the country’s medical system has been dismantled and many people lack clean water. |
| That reality would leave Yemen’s 30 million people dangerously vulnerable should the coronavirus take hold, and the country reported its first case on Friday. | That reality would leave Yemen’s 30 million people dangerously vulnerable should the coronavirus take hold, and the country reported its first case on Friday. |
| The infected man, a 60-year-old heavy smoker, is a laborer at the port in the town of Al-Shihir in Hadramout Province, where he is believed to have caught the virus from foreign sailors. He is being treated in a hospital, and the authorities have locked down the town and dispatched soldiers to keep residents in their homes. | The infected man, a 60-year-old heavy smoker, is a laborer at the port in the town of Al-Shihir in Hadramout Province, where he is believed to have caught the virus from foreign sailors. He is being treated in a hospital, and the authorities have locked down the town and dispatched soldiers to keep residents in their homes. |
| The Saudi cease-fire announcement came five years after the kingdom and a number of its Arab allies launched a military intervention in Yemen to try to push back the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. The Houthis had stormed the Yemeni capital, Sana, and sent the government into exile. | The Saudi cease-fire announcement came five years after the kingdom and a number of its Arab allies launched a military intervention in Yemen to try to push back the Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival. The Houthis had stormed the Yemeni capital, Sana, and sent the government into exile. |
| Now, the Saudis have many reasons to look for a way out, analysts said. The war’s cost has been tremendous, and at a time when the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, wants to push through expensive efforts to diversify the Saudi economy. | Now, the Saudis have many reasons to look for a way out, analysts said. The war’s cost has been tremendous, and at a time when the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, wants to push through expensive efforts to diversify the Saudi economy. |
| More recently, the worldwide drop in demand for oil, because of coronavirus lockdowns and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, has exacerbated the fiscal strains, reducing the price of oil to less than half of what the kingdom needs to balance its budget. | More recently, the worldwide drop in demand for oil, because of coronavirus lockdowns and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, has exacerbated the fiscal strains, reducing the price of oil to less than half of what the kingdom needs to balance its budget. |
| Saudi Arabia has long faced international censure for contributing to Yemen’s humanitarian collapse, criticism that would probably intensify if many Yemenis started dying of Covid-19. | Saudi Arabia has long faced international censure for contributing to Yemen’s humanitarian collapse, criticism that would probably intensify if many Yemenis started dying of Covid-19. |
| But the kingdom may be stuck with an enemy who prefers to keep fighting. Within hours of the cease-fire’s start time of noon Thursday, there were reports of breaches. | But the kingdom may be stuck with an enemy who prefers to keep fighting. Within hours of the cease-fire’s start time of noon Thursday, there were reports of breaches. |
| The Saudis had told the Houthis in advance that the cease-fire announcement was coming, according to a diplomat with knowledge of the exchange. But Houthi leaders have yet to issue an official response to the initiative. | The Saudis had told the Houthis in advance that the cease-fire announcement was coming, according to a diplomat with knowledge of the exchange. But Houthi leaders have yet to issue an official response to the initiative. |
| In a telephone call, Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi leader, dismissed the Saudi announcement as “more of a continuation of the war than a cease-fire.” | In a telephone call, Muhammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi leader, dismissed the Saudi announcement as “more of a continuation of the war than a cease-fire.” |
| “Saudi Arabia is mobilizing its air, navy and armed forces to continue blockading Yemen, which has a far greater impact than the continuation of air bombing,” he said. | “Saudi Arabia is mobilizing its air, navy and armed forces to continue blockading Yemen, which has a far greater impact than the continuation of air bombing,” he said. |
| Another senior Houthi official, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, released the group’s own peace proposal. It included, among other things, the end of the Saudi-led blockade, the reopening of Yemeni airports, long-term Saudi financial commitments to Yemen’s reconstruction and direct talks between the Saudis and the Houthis about Yemen’s political future — with no direct mention of the Yemeni government. | Another senior Houthi official, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, released the group’s own peace proposal. It included, among other things, the end of the Saudi-led blockade, the reopening of Yemeni airports, long-term Saudi financial commitments to Yemen’s reconstruction and direct talks between the Saudis and the Houthis about Yemen’s political future — with no direct mention of the Yemeni government. |
| Those demands indicated that after standing in the face of the Arab world’s richest country and keeping the Yemeni capital for five years, the Houthis were in no mood to offer concessions, analysts said. | Those demands indicated that after standing in the face of the Arab world’s richest country and keeping the Yemeni capital for five years, the Houthis were in no mood to offer concessions, analysts said. |
| “The Saudis are trying to wiggle out of the conflict, and the Houthis are grabbing them by the neck,” said Abdulghani Al-Iryani, senior researcher at the Sana Center for Strategic Studies. | “The Saudis are trying to wiggle out of the conflict, and the Houthis are grabbing them by the neck,” said Abdulghani Al-Iryani, senior researcher at the Sana Center for Strategic Studies. |
| The Houthi position is strengthened by military gains in recent months against the kingdom’s Yemeni allies in key provinces in central Yemen. | The Houthi position is strengthened by military gains in recent months against the kingdom’s Yemeni allies in key provinces in central Yemen. |
| “The only thing they are good at is fighting,” Mr. Al-Iryani said of the Houthis, “and they are not going to abandon this comfortable terrain without a comprehensive agreement.” | “The only thing they are good at is fighting,” Mr. Al-Iryani said of the Houthis, “and they are not going to abandon this comfortable terrain without a comprehensive agreement.” |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | Updated June 12, 2020 |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| Other analysts raised other issues that could affect the success of the Saudi cease-fire. For one, who else will honor it remains unknown. | Other analysts raised other issues that could affect the success of the Saudi cease-fire. For one, who else will honor it remains unknown. |
| “It is unilateral, so it is not clear what the Houthis reaction is, nor how much buy-in there is from the Yemenis fighting the Houthis on the ground,” said April Longley Alley, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. “Are other Yemenis on board with this?” | “It is unilateral, so it is not clear what the Houthis reaction is, nor how much buy-in there is from the Yemenis fighting the Houthis on the ground,” said April Longley Alley, deputy program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group. “Are other Yemenis on board with this?” |
| A number of leaders in Yemen’s internationally recognized government said on Thursday that they supported the cease-fire, and Yemen’s president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, was reported to have called on loyalist troops to stop fighting. But Mr. Hadi and many of his ministers are in exile in Saudi Arabia and have little control over the fighters on the ground at home. | A number of leaders in Yemen’s internationally recognized government said on Thursday that they supported the cease-fire, and Yemen’s president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, was reported to have called on loyalist troops to stop fighting. But Mr. Hadi and many of his ministers are in exile in Saudi Arabia and have little control over the fighters on the ground at home. |
| If the warring parties do decide to engage in talks, which would be conducted via phone and computer linkups, the United Nations has laid the diplomatic groundwork through months of discussions with both sides. But whether they would participate is far from clear. | If the warring parties do decide to engage in talks, which would be conducted via phone and computer linkups, the United Nations has laid the diplomatic groundwork through months of discussions with both sides. But whether they would participate is far from clear. |
| “Implementing a cease-fire is no small matter, and the first test of this is going to be whether the parties show up for this virtual meeting,” Ms. Alley said. | “Implementing a cease-fire is no small matter, and the first test of this is going to be whether the parties show up for this virtual meeting,” Ms. Alley said. |
| Even if they do, the cease-fire is unlikely to endure unless it is tied to a larger process aimed at addressing the many issues that have kept Yemenis fighting. | Even if they do, the cease-fire is unlikely to endure unless it is tied to a larger process aimed at addressing the many issues that have kept Yemenis fighting. |
| “Without a political process undergirding a cease-fire, without a way out and without very tangible economic and humanitarian confidence-building measures, the cease-fire cannot be durable,” Ms. Alley said. | “Without a political process undergirding a cease-fire, without a way out and without very tangible economic and humanitarian confidence-building measures, the cease-fire cannot be durable,” Ms. Alley said. |
| Saeed Al-Batati contributed reporting from Al Mukalla, Yemen, and Shuaib Almosawa from Sana. | Saeed Al-Batati contributed reporting from Al Mukalla, Yemen, and Shuaib Almosawa from Sana. |