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Coronavirus UK live: Lockdown could shrink GDP by 35% and see unemployment rise by 2m, says OBR UK coronavirus live: lockdown could shrink GDP by 35%, says OBR, as daily hospital deaths rise by 778 to 12,107
(32 minutes later)
Coronavirus lockdown in the UK could last at least another month, as Dominic Raab says country has not passed the peak Unemployment could soar by 2 million; death tolls rise in England, Scotland, Wales and NI amid questions over care home figures
In addition to the virtual first minister’s questions, which started last Thursday, the Scottish parliament’s presiding officer, Ken Macintosh, has just announced a new virtual members’ question time this Friday, where up to 19 MSPs will have the chance to put questions to four cabinet secretaries most deeply involved in the Covid-19 response, including the health secretary, Jeane Freeman.
Mackintosh said that Holyrood’s governing body was continuing to discuss arrangements for chamber and committee business in the coming weeks:
The Department of Health and Social Care has announced that 778 people have died across the UK after contracting coronavirus in the past 24 hours.
As of 5pm on 13 April, of those treated in hospital in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 12,107 have died.
There may be a delay in reporting figures as many NHS trusts are still collating figures from over the bank holiday period.
Scotland has recorded 40 new coronavirus-related deaths in last 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths to 615.
The country recorded 291 new cases overnight, bringing the total of confirmed cases to 6,358.
Northern Ireland has recorded 10 new coronavirus related deaths in last 24 hours bringing the total number of deaths to 134.
NI has confirmed 85 new cases, bringing the total number of cases to 1,967.
The Downing Street lobby briefing is over for the day. In the past lobby briefings weren’t always the most informative events in the Westminster daily diary, and they normally wrapped up in under half an hour. Now they take place by conference call, just once a day, and they regularly last for more than an hour (like today’s). They have also become a lot more useful, partly because of the length (it is not as if political journalists have a lot of other things to do), partly because of the format, but also partly because No 10 needs to engage with the media more than it thought it did in the pre-coronavirus era.
Most of the briefing was taken by the prime minister’s spokesman, but we also heard from a Treasury spokesman talking about the OBR report.
Here are the main points.
The Treasury spokesman stressed that the OBR description of what might happen to the economy was not an official government prediction - although he did not challenge it in any significant way. He described the OBR analysis as “one scenario”, but he said that the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has already acknowledged that coronavirus was going to have a “significant impact” on the economy. Sunak is chairing the government’s daily coronavirus press conference at 5pm this afternoon.
The Treasury spokesman implied the OBR report vindicated government policy. He said the report confirmed that, if the government had not intervened, the economic impact on people would be “much worse”. And he said the OBR did say that the impact of the lockdown would be “contained in time” and that there would be a rapid bounce back.
The Treasury spokesman said figures for how many workers were being furloughed under the government’s job retention scheme would be available when the online portal was up and running at the end of April. The OBR estimates that around of 30% of employees will take advantage of this. The OBR report says:
The Treasury spokesman rejected claims that take-up was higher than the government expected. He said that the Treasury had never predicted what the take-up would be, and that a high take-up showed that the scheme was doing what it was meant to be doing.
The prime minister’s spokesman said that the OBR’s decision to model the impact of a three-month lockdown, followed by three months of partial lockdown (see 12.16pm), should not be seen as an indication of what the government was planning. It was just a modelling assumption by the OBR, he said.
The PM’s spokesman rejected suggestions that the government was playing down the number of coronavirus deaths in care homes. (See 9.27am.) He said the government published different sets of figures, but that it was completely transparent as to what they covered. When it was put to him that the figures being given by care home providers suggested the official government figures for the number of care homes affected by coronavirus (13.5%) understated the scale of the problem, the spokesman said the government figure was the best available.
The PM’s spokesman said the most recently daily figure for the overall number of tests carried out (in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday) was 14,506.
The PM’s spokesman was unable to say whether the government would investigate every death of a social care worker with coronavirus. The government has said that the death of every NHS worker with coronavirus will be investigated.
The PM’s spokesman said the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) was meeting now to consider its evidence for government about the case of extending the lockdown. He said the government would be responding on Thursday.
The PM’s spokesman said government advisers were reviewing policy on whether members of the public should wear masks. The group looking at this is “Nervtag”, the new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group, the spokesman said. Yesterday Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the government would change its policy if the scientific case for wearing masks grew stronger.
The spokesman said that progress was being made towards procuring more ventilators for the NHS was a positive thing. Asked about reports that some designs for new ventilators have not been approved by regulators, the spokesman said that it was important for the government to make sure it only bought machines that met regulatory requirements.
The spokesman rejected a report suggesting that the UK has lost out by not participating in an EU-wide scheme for the procurement of PPE (personal protective equipment). Asked about the Guardian report by my colleagues Daniel Boffey and Robert Booth, the spokesman said:
The PM’s spokesman sidestepped questions about whether the government would hold a public inquiry into its handling of coronavirus. He said the government was focusing on tackling coronavirus. But he went on:
The PM’s spokesman would not endorse a statement from Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, about the government being too slow to ramp up testing. On ITV last night Vallance said:
Asked about this, the spokesman said the government was very clear about the need to scale up testing.
The PM’s spokesman said that Boris Johnson was still off work. He was not engaged in any government business, the spokesman said. He said there was nothing new to add about the condition of the PM, who is continuing his recovery at Chequers. He said the priority for the PM was for him to “rest and recover” and that his medical team had advised him not to immediately return to work. The spokesman was unable to say whether the PM would be holding his usual weekly audience with the Queen (which currently takes place by telephone) this week.
The PM’s spokesman said that the government would be saying more later this week about its plans for a partial “virtual parliament” when MPs returns from their Easter recess next week.
The spokesman said suppliers of personal protective equipment (PPE) should not be prioritising England over Scotland. He said it was being distributed “evenly across the UK” in a “four-nation approach”. He said:
The spokesman confirmed that Dominic Cummings, the PM’s chief adviser who has been off work with coronavirus symptoms, is now back at work in No 10. Asked about a photo showing Cummings arriving at work alongside Cleo Watson, another No 10 aide, and about claims that this showed people in Downing Street ignoring the social distancing rules, the spokesman claimed everyone in No 10 was observing the rules. When it was put to him that this photograph suggested the opposite, the spokesman just stuck to his line.
Wales has recorded 19 further deaths of people who had tested positive for Covid-19, taking the number of deaths in Wales to 403.
Wales also reported 238 new cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 5,848, although the true number of cases is likely to be higher.
A further 744 people have died in hospital in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total deaths in hospital in England to 11,005.A further 744 people have died in hospital in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total deaths in hospital in England to 11,005.
Patients were aged between 34 and 102 years old. 58 of the 744 patients (aged between 38 and 96 years old) had no known underlying health condition.Patients were aged between 34 and 102 years old. 58 of the 744 patients (aged between 38 and 96 years old) had no known underlying health condition.
The first UK-built ventilators backed by a consortium of leading manufacturers have been delivered to hospitals over the weekend, with another device now in final clinical trials, the PA Media reports:The first UK-built ventilators backed by a consortium of leading manufacturers have been delivered to hospitals over the weekend, with another device now in final clinical trials, the PA Media reports:
It is understood a number of ParaPac devices, made by Smiths Medical - whose production lines have been boosted by the involvement of The Ventilator Challenge UK (TVUK) group - were sent to wards across the UK in the last few days.It is understood a number of ParaPac devices, made by Smiths Medical - whose production lines have been boosted by the involvement of The Ventilator Challenge UK (TVUK) group - were sent to wards across the UK in the last few days.
Production of the model, which was already being built before the Covid-19 outbreak, was scaled up by the involvement of the consortium, which includes Formula One racing teams Mercedes, McLaren and Williams.Production of the model, which was already being built before the Covid-19 outbreak, was scaled up by the involvement of the consortium, which includes Formula One racing teams Mercedes, McLaren and Williams.
The group, which also involves Rolls-Royce, Airbus, and BAE Systems, has also put its manufacturing and design muscle behind improving another ventilator, made by Oxfordshire-based Penlon, which is now in the “final stage” of regulatory approval, according to the Cabinet Office.The group, which also involves Rolls-Royce, Airbus, and BAE Systems, has also put its manufacturing and design muscle behind improving another ventilator, made by Oxfordshire-based Penlon, which is now in the “final stage” of regulatory approval, according to the Cabinet Office.
A separate machine being designed and built from scratch by Dyson was also being considered by the government, which had ordered 10,000 units.A separate machine being designed and built from scratch by Dyson was also being considered by the government, which had ordered 10,000 units.
It comes as the government scrapped plans to buy a fourth device called BlueSky, which was created by another consortium also involving Formula One teams.It comes as the government scrapped plans to buy a fourth device called BlueSky, which was created by another consortium also involving Formula One teams.
A Cabinet Office spokesman said:A Cabinet Office spokesman said:
As yet, none of the new-build ventilators have received approval by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), although the Penlon-made device, now in clinical trials, appears to be leading its peers.As yet, none of the new-build ventilators have received approval by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), although the Penlon-made device, now in clinical trials, appears to be leading its peers.
More on ventilators from my colleague Rob Davies here:More on ventilators from my colleague Rob Davies here:
And here again is The Guardian’s front page today, which reveals how the UK missed three chances to join EU scheme to bulk-buy PPE and ventilatorsAnd here again is The Guardian’s front page today, which reveals how the UK missed three chances to join EU scheme to bulk-buy PPE and ventilators
Responding to questions about the take up of the coronavirus business loan scheme, the chancellor Rishi Sunak said banks were working through a backlog after overwhelming demand.Responding to questions about the take up of the coronavirus business loan scheme, the chancellor Rishi Sunak said banks were working through a backlog after overwhelming demand.
Sunak added:Sunak added:
An NHS boss has said a new Nightingale Hospital being built innorth-east England will not need to open if people maintain social distancing rules, PA Media reports.
Workers have transformed an empty unit close to the Nissan car plant into a 460-bed facility which could be ready to take patients at the end of the month.But the Nightingale Hospital in Washington, Tyne and Wear, will only open to patients if hospitals in the north-east are unable to cope with the influx of coronavirus patients.
Martin Wilson, chief operating officer for Newcastle hospitals NHS foundation trust, which is overseeing the project, said he does not think that will happen.He said:
The brand new unit is owned by Sunderland council and was due to be used by Newcastle and Sunderland Universities as an innovation centre, focusing on the future of manufacturing including electric cars.The main hall where the beds will be located measures more than 9,000 square metres – a standard football pitch is 7,140 sq metres.Six other NHS Nightingale Hospitals have been announced so far - in London, Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol, Harrogate and Exeter.
The Welsh health minister, Vaughan Gething, has expressed frustration that not all the Covid-19 tests it has made available are being taken up, writes Steven Morris.
A drive-through testing centre in Cardiff did not open on Monday but Gething said this was because there were not enough referrals of frontline staff for it to operate.
Gething said: “We need to do much more to maximise the capacity that exists and it’s really frustrating for me that we haven’t maximised that capacity. Every part of the system needs to refer their frontline staff.
“If I was a social care worker or frontline health worker sat at home self-isolating I’d be deeply frustrated to know there is capacity I can’t make use of.”
Gething said that there have been confirmed Covid-19 cases in 75 of the 1,073 care homes in Wales. There have been another 217 suspected cases.
The minister denied that Wales was being “gazumped” by England when it came to sourcing PPE equipment and ventilators.
He said orders from England were “helping crowd out” the global market but argued that the best way for Wales to make sure it had what it needed was to be part of a UK-wide procurement system.
Gething added: “If we want to go it alone, then we are a relatively small country in a global market that is tightening and getting more expensive.”
A care home nurse from Birmingham who died after contracting coronavirus was ‘loving and dedicated to helping people’, reports the Birmingham Mail.
Elsie Sazuze, 44, fell ill at home before being taken to Good Hope hospital in Sutton Coldfield where she sadly died on Wednesday 8 April.
The mother-of-two leaves behind husband Ken, son Andrew, 22 and daughter Anna, aged 16.
Her childhood friend William Fungatira has today paid tribute as he released an album of pictures on behalf of her family.
He said:
In her lunchtime briefing, Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon addressed reports that private firms were prioritising the NHS in England for PPE delivery, with supplies destined for Scottish care homes being diverted to England. While earlier this morning the Scottish government’s national clinical director dismissed the reports as “rubbish”, Sturgeon appeared to take them far more seriously, describing it as “unconscionable” if the case.
Sturgeon said that she was not currently aware of any such issue affecting national supplies, but that it would be “completely unacceptable” if it was causing problems for individual organisations. She added that the Scottish health secretary, Jeane Freeman, would be seeking clarification on this from her UK counterpart, Matt Hancock, later today.
As the press conference went on, Freeman revealed that Hancock had cancelled the call but emphasised how seriously she was taking the reports, and said that she would now be writing to the UK health secretary for urgent clarification.
Responding to the OBR’s coronavirus economic scenario, the chancellor Rishi Sunak said it was important “to be honest about the hardship ahead” and that it was clear the lockdown would have a very significant impact on the economy.
Reiterating that the government could not protect every job and business, he told reporters:
He said defeating the virus was “not a choice between health and economics – that defies common sense”.
Asked about the “woefully low” number of businesses who have so far managed to access funds from the government loan scheme, Sunak said banks had been working through the backlog over the Easter bank holiday weekend and the numbers should “tick up considerably into the thousands this week”. He added that acceptance rates were “reasonably high”.
Following the OBR’s publication of coronavirus economic scenarios, the SNP has called on the government to deliver comprehensive financial support to ensure “no one is left behind”.
The SNP’s leader in Westminster, Ian Blackford, underlined the need for the UK government to fix the serious gaps in the support being offered to millions of people who have lost their jobs or seen their incomes reduced.
He renewed calls for a guaranteed minimum income and warned the UK government against lifting the lockdown too early saying “protecting lives must be the priority”. He said:
Nicola Sturgeon has announced Tuesday’s daily figures for Covid-19: a further 291 positive cases, taking the total to 6358, and a further 40 deaths, taking that total to 615.
She added that there was likely to be a lag in figures because of under-reporting over the Easter weekend.
She said that we should not read too much into the fact that there were 15 fewer people with a positive diagnosis in intensive care.
Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald TD has confirmed that on Monday she received a positive diagnosis for Covid-19, having been tested on 28 March. She confirmed that she was no longer infectious and after weeks of feeling really unwell, expressed “great relief” at recovering from the illness.In a statement she thanked everyone who has sent their good wishes over the past number of weeks and said she hopes to be back at work next Monday. She said: