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UK coronavirus live: lockdown could shrink GDP by 35%, says OBR, as daily hospital deaths rise by 778 to 12,107 UK coronavirus live: lockdown could shrink GDP by 35%, says OBR, as hospital deaths rise by 778 to 12,107
(32 minutes later)
Unemployment could soar by 2 million; death tolls rise in England, Scotland, Wales and NI amid questions over care home figuresUnemployment could soar by 2 million; death tolls rise in England, Scotland, Wales and NI amid questions over care home figures
There is mounting anger in Northern Ireland over authorities’ failure to disclose the number of coronavirus-related deaths in care homes.
The health minister, Robin Swann, said on Tuesday that 32 care homes had been affected but their death toll remains unclear, prompting protests from politicians and advocacy groups.
Dr Michael McBride, the chief medical office, said the process of registering deaths was complicated, involving death certificates, the General Register Office and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. “Every death counts. Behind every death is a person. It is wrong to create an impression that those lives lost don’t matter,” McBride told BBC Radio Ulster.
Northern Ireland’s official death toll – 134 – relates only to hospital deaths. Northern Ireland has 484 care homes, with 16,000 beds.
The pandemic has wrought a severe toll on nursing homes across the border in the republic of Ireland, accounting for around half of the country’s 365 death toll.
The Medical Protection Society (MPS) has called on the government to introduce emergency laws to safeguard doctors from claims against their decisions during the coronavirus crisis.
It is calling on the UK to support new laws, already adopted in New York state, to ensure healthcare professionals are not exposed to “criminal and regulatory investigations following decisions they may have to make in terms of when emergency treatment can be withheld or withdrawn”.
Decisions on whether to administer or withdraw life prolonging treatments are normally made on a basis of what is in the best interest of the patient, the MPS said, but “that normal decision-making processes will be put under enormous strain during a pandemic, especially when surges in demand temporarily exceed supply”.
The society points to lack of clarity when it comes to whether it would be lawful for a ventilator to be withheld or removed from one patient in order to sustain the life of another.
Dr Rob Hendry, medical director at the Medical Protection Society, said:
The number of offenders being sentenced to short-term prison sentences will outstrip the number of prisoners set to be released early as part of plans to mitigate the spread of coronavirus, MPs have been told.
Earlier this month, the Ministry of Justice announced plans to release up to 4,000 risk-assessed prisoners who are within two months of their release date will be temporarily released from jail.
During a remote session of the justice committee broadcast online, Katie Lomas, national chair of rehabilitation charity Nacro, said:
Justice reform campaigners have long called for the government to introduce a presumption against short sentences of six months or less as evidence has shown the jail terms do little to reduce reoffending. In Scotland, there is a presumption against sentences of 12 months.
Scotland’s Care Inspectorate has confirmed at least two deaths at the Wastview Care Centre in Shetland, as the Scottish government prepares to publish what first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has promised will be “full and robust” data on care home deaths on Wednesday.
Jeane Freeman, the Scottish health secretary, said on Sunday that the Care Inspectorate had been told of Covid-19 cases in 406 adult care homes, 37% of the total, amidst growing anxiety about a surge in deaths, with clusters including 13 reported dead after contracting coronavirus at a care home in Glasgow last week.
On Wednesday, National Records of Scotland will publish weekly data on all registered deaths from Covid-19, which includes deaths where the virus was a suspected or probable cause.
This week for the first time those figures will be broken down by the location of someone’s death, indicating whether an individual dies in hospital, in a care home, at home or at another location.
Amid continuing speculation about when schools will reopen in England, the National Education Union (NEU) has written to the prime minister expressing that its members were “disturbed” by the continuing speculation and called for the government to share its modelling, evidence and plans for any return to school as a matter of urgency.
Last Wednesday, Number 10 intervened to clarify that schools would not be reopening straight after the Easter holidays after media speculation based on comments said to have been made by an unnamed minister.
Then on Friday, two other unions representing headteachers suggested that schools should reopen for a number of weeks ahead of the summer holidays instead of waiting until September, if the scientific evidence said it was safe to do so.The NEU’s letter said:
In the letter, the NEU asked whether plans to reopen schools would address problems with social distancing in schools, testing of children staff and availability of personal protective equipment.
It also asked about children and staff in vulnerable health categories and called on the government to share its modelling of the increased number of cases and deaths among children, their families, teachers and support staff as a result of reopening schools.
In addition to the virtual first minister’s questions, which started last Thursday, the Scottish parliament’s presiding officer, Ken Macintosh, has just announced a new virtual members’ question time this Friday, where up to 19 MSPs will have the chance to put questions to four cabinet secretaries most deeply involved in the Covid-19 response, including the health secretary, Jeane Freeman.In addition to the virtual first minister’s questions, which started last Thursday, the Scottish parliament’s presiding officer, Ken Macintosh, has just announced a new virtual members’ question time this Friday, where up to 19 MSPs will have the chance to put questions to four cabinet secretaries most deeply involved in the Covid-19 response, including the health secretary, Jeane Freeman.
Mackintosh said that Holyrood’s governing body was continuing to discuss arrangements for chamber and committee business in the coming weeks:Mackintosh said that Holyrood’s governing body was continuing to discuss arrangements for chamber and committee business in the coming weeks:
The Department of Health and Social Care has announced that 778 people have died across the UK after contracting coronavirus in the past 24 hours.The Department of Health and Social Care has announced that 778 people have died across the UK after contracting coronavirus in the past 24 hours.
As of 5pm on 13 April, of those treated in hospital in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 12,107 have died.As of 5pm on 13 April, of those treated in hospital in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 12,107 have died.
There may be a delay in reporting figures as many NHS trusts are still collating figures from over the bank holiday period.There may be a delay in reporting figures as many NHS trusts are still collating figures from over the bank holiday period.
The full details are on the DHSC’s website here.
Scotland has recorded 40 new coronavirus-related deaths in last 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths to 615.Scotland has recorded 40 new coronavirus-related deaths in last 24 hours, bringing the total number of deaths to 615.
The country recorded 291 new cases overnight, bringing the total of confirmed cases to 6,358.The country recorded 291 new cases overnight, bringing the total of confirmed cases to 6,358.
Northern Ireland has recorded 10 new coronavirus related deaths in last 24 hours bringing the total number of deaths to 134.Northern Ireland has recorded 10 new coronavirus related deaths in last 24 hours bringing the total number of deaths to 134.
NI has confirmed 85 new cases, bringing the total number of cases to 1,967.NI has confirmed 85 new cases, bringing the total number of cases to 1,967.
The full details are in this bulletin (pdf) from NI’s Public Health Agency.
The Downing Street lobby briefing is over for the day. In the past lobby briefings weren’t always the most informative events in the Westminster daily diary, and they normally wrapped up in under half an hour. Now they take place by conference call, just once a day, and they regularly last for more than an hour (like today’s). They have also become a lot more useful, partly because of the length (it is not as if political journalists have a lot of other things to do), partly because of the format, but also partly because No 10 needs to engage with the media more than it thought it did in the pre-coronavirus era.The Downing Street lobby briefing is over for the day. In the past lobby briefings weren’t always the most informative events in the Westminster daily diary, and they normally wrapped up in under half an hour. Now they take place by conference call, just once a day, and they regularly last for more than an hour (like today’s). They have also become a lot more useful, partly because of the length (it is not as if political journalists have a lot of other things to do), partly because of the format, but also partly because No 10 needs to engage with the media more than it thought it did in the pre-coronavirus era.
Most of the briefing was taken by the prime minister’s spokesman, but we also heard from a Treasury spokesman talking about the OBR report.Most of the briefing was taken by the prime minister’s spokesman, but we also heard from a Treasury spokesman talking about the OBR report.
Here are the main points.Here are the main points.
The Treasury spokesman stressed that the OBR description of what might happen to the economy was not an official government prediction - although he did not challenge it in any significant way. He described the OBR analysis as “one scenario”, but he said that the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has already acknowledged that coronavirus was going to have a “significant impact” on the economy. Sunak is chairing the government’s daily coronavirus press conference at 5pm this afternoon.The Treasury spokesman stressed that the OBR description of what might happen to the economy was not an official government prediction - although he did not challenge it in any significant way. He described the OBR analysis as “one scenario”, but he said that the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has already acknowledged that coronavirus was going to have a “significant impact” on the economy. Sunak is chairing the government’s daily coronavirus press conference at 5pm this afternoon.
The Treasury spokesman implied the OBR report vindicated government policy. He said the report confirmed that, if the government had not intervened, the economic impact on people would be “much worse”. And he said the OBR did say that the impact of the lockdown would be “contained in time” and that there would be a rapid bounce back.The Treasury spokesman implied the OBR report vindicated government policy. He said the report confirmed that, if the government had not intervened, the economic impact on people would be “much worse”. And he said the OBR did say that the impact of the lockdown would be “contained in time” and that there would be a rapid bounce back.
The Treasury spokesman said figures for how many workers were being furloughed under the government’s job retention scheme would be available when the online portal was up and running at the end of April. The OBR estimates that around of 30% of employees will take advantage of this. The OBR report says:The Treasury spokesman said figures for how many workers were being furloughed under the government’s job retention scheme would be available when the online portal was up and running at the end of April. The OBR estimates that around of 30% of employees will take advantage of this. The OBR report says:
The Treasury spokesman rejected claims that take-up was higher than the government expected. He said that the Treasury had never predicted what the take-up would be, and that a high take-up showed that the scheme was doing what it was meant to be doing.The Treasury spokesman rejected claims that take-up was higher than the government expected. He said that the Treasury had never predicted what the take-up would be, and that a high take-up showed that the scheme was doing what it was meant to be doing.
The prime minister’s spokesman said that the OBR’s decision to model the impact of a three-month lockdown, followed by three months of partial lockdown (see 12.16pm), should not be seen as an indication of what the government was planning. It was just a modelling assumption by the OBR, he said.The prime minister’s spokesman said that the OBR’s decision to model the impact of a three-month lockdown, followed by three months of partial lockdown (see 12.16pm), should not be seen as an indication of what the government was planning. It was just a modelling assumption by the OBR, he said.
The PM’s spokesman rejected suggestions that the government was playing down the number of coronavirus deaths in care homes. (See 9.27am.) He said the government published different sets of figures, but that it was completely transparent as to what they covered. When it was put to him that the figures being given by care home providers suggested the official government figures for the number of care homes affected by coronavirus (13.5%) understated the scale of the problem, the spokesman said the government figure was the best available.The PM’s spokesman rejected suggestions that the government was playing down the number of coronavirus deaths in care homes. (See 9.27am.) He said the government published different sets of figures, but that it was completely transparent as to what they covered. When it was put to him that the figures being given by care home providers suggested the official government figures for the number of care homes affected by coronavirus (13.5%) understated the scale of the problem, the spokesman said the government figure was the best available.
The PM’s spokesman said the most recently daily figure for the overall number of tests carried out (in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday) was 14,506.The PM’s spokesman said the most recently daily figure for the overall number of tests carried out (in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday) was 14,506.
The PM’s spokesman was unable to say whether the government would investigate every death of a social care worker with coronavirus. The government has said that the death of every NHS worker with coronavirus will be investigated.The PM’s spokesman was unable to say whether the government would investigate every death of a social care worker with coronavirus. The government has said that the death of every NHS worker with coronavirus will be investigated.
The PM’s spokesman said the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) was meeting now to consider its evidence for government about the case of extending the lockdown. He said the government would be responding on Thursday.The PM’s spokesman said the scientific advisory group for emergencies (Sage) was meeting now to consider its evidence for government about the case of extending the lockdown. He said the government would be responding on Thursday.
The PM’s spokesman said government advisers were reviewing policy on whether members of the public should wear masks. The group looking at this is “Nervtag”, the new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group, the spokesman said. Yesterday Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the government would change its policy if the scientific case for wearing masks grew stronger.The PM’s spokesman said government advisers were reviewing policy on whether members of the public should wear masks. The group looking at this is “Nervtag”, the new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group, the spokesman said. Yesterday Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the government would change its policy if the scientific case for wearing masks grew stronger.
The spokesman said that progress was being made towards procuring more ventilators for the NHS was a positive thing. Asked about reports that some designs for new ventilators have not been approved by regulators, the spokesman said that it was important for the government to make sure it only bought machines that met regulatory requirements.The spokesman said that progress was being made towards procuring more ventilators for the NHS was a positive thing. Asked about reports that some designs for new ventilators have not been approved by regulators, the spokesman said that it was important for the government to make sure it only bought machines that met regulatory requirements.
The spokesman rejected a report suggesting that the UK has lost out by not participating in an EU-wide scheme for the procurement of PPE (personal protective equipment). Asked about the Guardian report by my colleagues Daniel Boffey and Robert Booth, the spokesman said:The spokesman rejected a report suggesting that the UK has lost out by not participating in an EU-wide scheme for the procurement of PPE (personal protective equipment). Asked about the Guardian report by my colleagues Daniel Boffey and Robert Booth, the spokesman said:
The PM’s spokesman sidestepped questions about whether the government would hold a public inquiry into its handling of coronavirus. He said the government was focusing on tackling coronavirus. But he went on:The PM’s spokesman sidestepped questions about whether the government would hold a public inquiry into its handling of coronavirus. He said the government was focusing on tackling coronavirus. But he went on:
The PM’s spokesman would not endorse a statement from Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, about the government being too slow to ramp up testing. On ITV last night Vallance said:The PM’s spokesman would not endorse a statement from Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, about the government being too slow to ramp up testing. On ITV last night Vallance said:
Asked about this, the spokesman said the government was very clear about the need to scale up testing.Asked about this, the spokesman said the government was very clear about the need to scale up testing.
The PM’s spokesman said that Boris Johnson was still off work. He was not engaged in any government business, the spokesman said. He said there was nothing new to add about the condition of the PM, who is continuing his recovery at Chequers. He said the priority for the PM was for him to “rest and recover” and that his medical team had advised him not to immediately return to work. The spokesman was unable to say whether the PM would be holding his usual weekly audience with the Queen (which currently takes place by telephone) this week.The PM’s spokesman said that Boris Johnson was still off work. He was not engaged in any government business, the spokesman said. He said there was nothing new to add about the condition of the PM, who is continuing his recovery at Chequers. He said the priority for the PM was for him to “rest and recover” and that his medical team had advised him not to immediately return to work. The spokesman was unable to say whether the PM would be holding his usual weekly audience with the Queen (which currently takes place by telephone) this week.
The PM’s spokesman said that the government would be saying more later this week about its plans for a partial “virtual parliament” when MPs returns from their Easter recess next week.The PM’s spokesman said that the government would be saying more later this week about its plans for a partial “virtual parliament” when MPs returns from their Easter recess next week.
The spokesman said suppliers of personal protective equipment (PPE) should not be prioritising England over Scotland. He said it was being distributed “evenly across the UK” in a “four-nation approach”. He said:The spokesman said suppliers of personal protective equipment (PPE) should not be prioritising England over Scotland. He said it was being distributed “evenly across the UK” in a “four-nation approach”. He said:
The spokesman confirmed that Dominic Cummings, the PM’s chief adviser who has been off work with coronavirus symptoms, is now back at work in No 10. Asked about a photo showing Cummings arriving at work alongside Cleo Watson, another No 10 aide, and about claims that this showed people in Downing Street ignoring the social distancing rules, the spokesman claimed everyone in No 10 was observing the rules. When it was put to him that this photograph suggested the opposite, the spokesman just stuck to his line.The spokesman confirmed that Dominic Cummings, the PM’s chief adviser who has been off work with coronavirus symptoms, is now back at work in No 10. Asked about a photo showing Cummings arriving at work alongside Cleo Watson, another No 10 aide, and about claims that this showed people in Downing Street ignoring the social distancing rules, the spokesman claimed everyone in No 10 was observing the rules. When it was put to him that this photograph suggested the opposite, the spokesman just stuck to his line.
Wales has recorded 19 further deaths of people who had tested positive for Covid-19, taking the number of deaths in Wales to 403.Wales has recorded 19 further deaths of people who had tested positive for Covid-19, taking the number of deaths in Wales to 403.
Wales also reported 238 new cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 5,848, although the true number of cases is likely to be higher.Wales also reported 238 new cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 5,848, although the true number of cases is likely to be higher.
A further 744 people have died in hospital in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total deaths in hospital in England to 11,005.A further 744 people have died in hospital in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total deaths in hospital in England to 11,005.
Patients were aged between 34 and 102 years old. 58 of the 744 patients (aged between 38 and 96 years old) had no known underlying health condition.Patients were aged between 34 and 102 years old. 58 of the 744 patients (aged between 38 and 96 years old) had no known underlying health condition.
The full details are here (pdf).
The first UK-built ventilators backed by a consortium of leading manufacturers have been delivered to hospitals over the weekend, with another device now in final clinical trials, the PA Media reports:The first UK-built ventilators backed by a consortium of leading manufacturers have been delivered to hospitals over the weekend, with another device now in final clinical trials, the PA Media reports:
It is understood a number of ParaPac devices, made by Smiths Medical - whose production lines have been boosted by the involvement of The Ventilator Challenge UK (TVUK) group - were sent to wards across the UK in the last few days.It is understood a number of ParaPac devices, made by Smiths Medical - whose production lines have been boosted by the involvement of The Ventilator Challenge UK (TVUK) group - were sent to wards across the UK in the last few days.
Production of the model, which was already being built before the Covid-19 outbreak, was scaled up by the involvement of the consortium, which includes Formula One racing teams Mercedes, McLaren and Williams.Production of the model, which was already being built before the Covid-19 outbreak, was scaled up by the involvement of the consortium, which includes Formula One racing teams Mercedes, McLaren and Williams.
The group, which also involves Rolls-Royce, Airbus, and BAE Systems, has also put its manufacturing and design muscle behind improving another ventilator, made by Oxfordshire-based Penlon, which is now in the “final stage” of regulatory approval, according to the Cabinet Office.The group, which also involves Rolls-Royce, Airbus, and BAE Systems, has also put its manufacturing and design muscle behind improving another ventilator, made by Oxfordshire-based Penlon, which is now in the “final stage” of regulatory approval, according to the Cabinet Office.
A separate machine being designed and built from scratch by Dyson was also being considered by the government, which had ordered 10,000 units.A separate machine being designed and built from scratch by Dyson was also being considered by the government, which had ordered 10,000 units.
It comes as the government scrapped plans to buy a fourth device called BlueSky, which was created by another consortium also involving Formula One teams.It comes as the government scrapped plans to buy a fourth device called BlueSky, which was created by another consortium also involving Formula One teams.
A Cabinet Office spokesman said:A Cabinet Office spokesman said:
As yet, none of the new-build ventilators have received approval by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), although the Penlon-made device, now in clinical trials, appears to be leading its peers.As yet, none of the new-build ventilators have received approval by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), although the Penlon-made device, now in clinical trials, appears to be leading its peers.
More on ventilators from my colleague Rob Davies here:More on ventilators from my colleague Rob Davies here:
And here again is The Guardian’s front page today, which reveals how the UK missed three chances to join EU scheme to bulk-buy PPE and ventilatorsAnd here again is The Guardian’s front page today, which reveals how the UK missed three chances to join EU scheme to bulk-buy PPE and ventilators
Responding to questions about the take up of the coronavirus business loan scheme, the chancellor Rishi Sunak said banks were working through a backlog after overwhelming demand.Responding to questions about the take up of the coronavirus business loan scheme, the chancellor Rishi Sunak said banks were working through a backlog after overwhelming demand.
Sunak added:Sunak added: