This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52361519
The article has changed 12 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
Version 5 | Version 6 |
---|---|
Coronavirus: Deaths at 20-year high but peak may be over | |
(32 minutes later) | |
Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high. | Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high. |
The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year. | The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year. |
A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health. | |
But experts believe this period could well be when virus deaths peaked. | |
They point to a separate analysis by NHS England which showed since 8 April the number of deaths in hospitals have been falling when you look at the date of death. | |
The daily figures presented by government just show when hospital deaths are announced - there is often a delay in recording and reporting which masks when a drop in deaths starts happening. | |
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said the NHS England figures suggested we were past the peak and in a "steadily" albeit slowly improving position. | |
But he added: "Judging from the experience in Italy, this could be a lengthy process." | |
Prof Carl Heneghan, from the University of Oxford, said he agreed, saying London, which saw rapid increases earlier than the rest of country, peaked even earlier. | |
How bad was the 'peak'? | |
The figures presented by the ONS are different from those used by the government on a daily basis and the NHS England analysis. | |
Those rely on hospital cases confirmed by tests, whereas the ONS has used death certificates which show both fatalities in hospital and in the community on a weekly basis. | |
The figures show that the overall number of deaths topped 18,500. That is the highest since January 2000 when there was a bad flu outbreak. | |
It is also much higher than the recent bad flu season of 2015. | |
More than 6,200 of these deaths were linked to coronavirus - a sixth of which happened in the community. | |
But what is also interesting is that deaths from other causes rose. | |
Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at ONS, said they were trying to understand why this was. | |
He said it could be that people with other illnesses were avoiding going to hospital for treatment - visits to A&E have halved since the pandemic started. | |
But he added it could "take years to work out". | But he added it could "take years to work out". |
He added it was important to remember the human toll in these figures. | |
"Each one is a person. Each one has a family. We must always remember this." | |
A similar trend is being reported in Scotland where there were nearly 2,000 deaths in the week up to 12 April. | A similar trend is being reported in Scotland where there were nearly 2,000 deaths in the week up to 12 April. |
Deaths in Northern Ireland are also up. | Deaths in Northern Ireland are also up. |
How many are dying outside of hospitals? | |
There has been growing concern about the impact of coronavirus outside of hospital. | |
Care homes have begun reporting outbreaks among residents that have been difficult to control, they say, because of a lack of testing and protective equipment. | |
The ONS - because it relies on death certificates rather than testing - can capture the scale of deaths. | |
The majority of deaths happened in hospital, but since the start of the pandemic more than 1,000 have died in care homes. | |
More people have died from flu and pneumonia | More people have died from flu and pneumonia |
Another way to judge the impact of coronavirus is to look at the overall impact on the numbers dying over the course of the year. | Another way to judge the impact of coronavirus is to look at the overall impact on the numbers dying over the course of the year. |
The figures show overall number of deaths are up. Nearly 185,000 people have died compared to around 175,000 on average compared to past five years - up until the pandemic hit the death rate was lower than average. | The figures show overall number of deaths are up. Nearly 185,000 people have died compared to around 175,000 on average compared to past five years - up until the pandemic hit the death rate was lower than average. |
But the figures for year-to-date also show the impact of flu and pneumonia compared to coronavirus. | But the figures for year-to-date also show the impact of flu and pneumonia compared to coronavirus. |
The number of deaths from flu and pneumonia - at more than 32,000 - is three times higher than the total number of coronavirus deaths this year. | The number of deaths from flu and pneumonia - at more than 32,000 - is three times higher than the total number of coronavirus deaths this year. |
This difference will obviously narrow in the coming weeks as the flu season is coming to an end and there has been a rapid rise in coronavirus deaths. | This difference will obviously narrow in the coming weeks as the flu season is coming to an end and there has been a rapid rise in coronavirus deaths. |
All of this relies on clinical judgement rather than a diagnostic test. Flu and coronavirus have similar symptoms - cough and fever - but flu is not tested for. | All of this relies on clinical judgement rather than a diagnostic test. Flu and coronavirus have similar symptoms - cough and fever - but flu is not tested for. |
How have you been affected by the coronavirus pandemic? Share your experiences by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk. | How have you been affected by the coronavirus pandemic? Share your experiences by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk. |
Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways: | Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways: |
Or please use the form below: | Or please use the form below: |