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| Coronavirus: Deaths at 20-year high but peak may be over | Coronavirus: Deaths at 20-year high but peak may be over |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high. | Deaths in England and Wales have nearly doubled above what would be expected, hitting a 20-year high. |
| The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year. | The Office for National Statistics said there were 18,500 deaths in the week up to 10 April - about 8,000 more than is normal at this time of year. |
| A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health. | A third were linked to coronavirus, but deaths from other causes also increased, suggesting the lockdown may be having an indirect impact on health. |
| But experts believe this period could well be when virus deaths peaked. | But experts believe this period could well be when virus deaths peaked. |
| They point to a separate analysis by NHS England which showed since 8 April the number of deaths in hospitals have been falling when you look at the date of death. | They point to a separate analysis by NHS England which showed since 8 April the number of deaths in hospitals have been falling when you look at the date of death. |
| The daily figures presented by government just show when hospital deaths are announced - there is often a delay in recording and reporting which masks when a drop in deaths starts happening. | The daily figures presented by government just show when hospital deaths are announced - there is often a delay in recording and reporting which masks when a drop in deaths starts happening. |
| Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said the NHS England figures suggested we were past the peak and in a "steadily" albeit slowly improving position. | Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said the NHS England figures suggested we were past the peak and in a "steadily" albeit slowly improving position. |
| But he added: "Judging from the experience in Italy, this could be a lengthy process." | But he added: "Judging from the experience in Italy, this could be a lengthy process." |
| Prof Carl Heneghan, from the University of Oxford, said he agreed, saying London, which saw rapid increases earlier than the rest of country, peaked even earlier. | Prof Carl Heneghan, from the University of Oxford, said he agreed, saying London, which saw rapid increases earlier than the rest of country, peaked even earlier. |
| How bad was the 'peak'? | How bad was the 'peak'? |
| The figures presented by the ONS are different from those used by the government on a daily basis and the NHS England analysis. | The figures presented by the ONS are different from those used by the government on a daily basis and the NHS England analysis. |
| Those rely on hospital cases confirmed by tests, whereas the ONS has used death certificates which show both fatalities in hospital and in the community on a weekly basis. | Those rely on hospital cases confirmed by tests, whereas the ONS has used death certificates which show both fatalities in hospital and in the community on a weekly basis. |
| The figures show that the overall number of deaths topped 18,500. That is the highest since January 2000 when there was a bad flu outbreak. | The figures show that the overall number of deaths topped 18,500. That is the highest since January 2000 when there was a bad flu outbreak. |
| It is also much higher than the recent bad flu season of 2015. | It is also much higher than the recent bad flu season of 2015. |
| More than 6,200 of these deaths were linked to coronavirus and Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. One in six of these deaths happened outside hospital. | |
| But the ONS also said deaths from other causes rose too. | |
| Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at ONS, said they were trying to understand and find out why this was. | |
| He said it could be that people with other illnesses were avoiding going to hospital for treatment - visits to A&E have halved since the pandemic started - or an under-reporting of coronavirus. | |
| But he added it could "take years to work out". | But he added it could "take years to work out". |
| He also said it was important to remember the human toll in these figures. | |
| "Each one is a person. Each one has a family. We must always remember this." | "Each one is a person. Each one has a family. We must always remember this." |
| A similar trend is being reported in Scotland where there were nearly 2,000 deaths in the week up to 12 April. | A similar trend is being reported in Scotland where there were nearly 2,000 deaths in the week up to 12 April. |
| Deaths in Northern Ireland are also up. | Deaths in Northern Ireland are also up. |
| How many are dying outside of hospitals? | How many are dying outside of hospitals? |
| There has been growing concern about the impact of coronavirus outside of hospital. | There has been growing concern about the impact of coronavirus outside of hospital. |
| Care homes have begun reporting outbreaks among residents that have been difficult to control, they say, because of a lack of testing and protective equipment. | Care homes have begun reporting outbreaks among residents that have been difficult to control, they say, because of a lack of testing and protective equipment. |
| The ONS - because it relies on death certificates rather than testing - can capture the scale of deaths. | The ONS - because it relies on death certificates rather than testing - can capture the scale of deaths. |
| The majority of deaths happened in hospital, but since the start of the pandemic more than 1,000 have died in care homes. | The majority of deaths happened in hospital, but since the start of the pandemic more than 1,000 have died in care homes. |
| More people have died from flu and pneumonia | More people have died from flu and pneumonia |
| Another way to judge the impact of coronavirus is to look at the overall impact on the numbers dying over the course of the year so far. | |
| The figures show overall number of deaths are up. | |
| Nearly 185,000 people have died in 2020 compared to around 175,000 on average over the past five years at this point of the year. | |
| But the figures for 2020 also show the impact of flu and pneumonia compared to coronavirus. | |
| The number of deaths from flu and pneumonia - at more than 32,000 - is three times higher than the total number of coronavirus deaths this year. | The number of deaths from flu and pneumonia - at more than 32,000 - is three times higher than the total number of coronavirus deaths this year. |
| This difference will obviously narrow in the coming weeks as the flu season is coming to an end and there has been a rapid rise in coronavirus deaths. | This difference will obviously narrow in the coming weeks as the flu season is coming to an end and there has been a rapid rise in coronavirus deaths. |
| Some also believe the number of coronavirus deaths have been under-reported - a lack of testing outside hospital means it is down to doctors to use their clinical judgement to decide cause of death. | |
| How have you been affected by the coronavirus pandemic? Share your experiences by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk. | How have you been affected by the coronavirus pandemic? Share your experiences by emailing haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk. |
| Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways: | Please include a contact number if you are willing to speak to a BBC journalist. You can also contact us in the following ways: |
| Or please use the form below: | Or please use the form below: |