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| UK coronavirus live: Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools; official death toll rises to 29,427 | UK coronavirus live: Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools; official death toll rises to 29,427 |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Testing falls below 100,000-a-day target for third day in a row as UK deaths rise by 693 and trial begins for new contact-tracing app | Testing falls below 100,000-a-day target for third day in a row as UK deaths rise by 693 and trial begins for new contact-tracing app |
| As the UK’s official death toll from Covid-19 passed Italy’s for the first time, it is worth noting that one month ago, government sources were privately sceptical of a study by world-leading disease data analysts that projected the UK would be the worst-affected country in Europe. The study anticipated 66,000 deaths by August. The total figure on Tuesday, which is certain to be an underestimate, was already more than 32,000. | |
| With Britain’s relative position appearing to worsen, the government’s attempt to shape the narrative at its daily Downing Street press briefing has become more important – and the slideshow of charts presented by advisers have been at the heart of the story. | |
| The slides have become a recognisable feature of the discussion but there has been little scrutiny of the data behind them – and how it can mislead rather than enlighten. | |
| Read the full analysis by Pamela Duncan and Niamh McIntyre here: | |
| Here are the main points from Dominic Raab’s press conference. | Here are the main points from Dominic Raab’s press conference. |
| Raab, the foreign secretary and first secretary of state, claimed it was too early to say that the UK has the worst record for coronavirus deaths in Europe. He was speaking after he said that the official death toll for coronavirus deaths in the UK is now 29,427. This covers all people who have died and tested positive for coronavirus. It does not include people who will have died from coronavirus without a test being carried out. As this chart from the respected Worldometer website shows, today’s total means the headline UK figure has overtaken Italy’s and is now the highest in Europe. | Raab, the foreign secretary and first secretary of state, claimed it was too early to say that the UK has the worst record for coronavirus deaths in Europe. He was speaking after he said that the official death toll for coronavirus deaths in the UK is now 29,427. This covers all people who have died and tested positive for coronavirus. It does not include people who will have died from coronavirus without a test being carried out. As this chart from the respected Worldometer website shows, today’s total means the headline UK figure has overtaken Italy’s and is now the highest in Europe. |
| But when it was put to Raab that the UK now has the worst record in Europe, he did not accept that. He replied: | But when it was put to Raab that the UK now has the worst record in Europe, he did not accept that. He replied: |
| Raab also suggested that one reason why the UK might be looking so bad was because of the efficiency of the Office for National Statistics. He said: | Raab also suggested that one reason why the UK might be looking so bad was because of the efficiency of the Office for National Statistics. He said: |
| Raab said it would not be safe to re-open all schools in England. He said: | Raab said it would not be safe to re-open all schools in England. He said: |
| He was speaking in response to a question about whether the UK government agreed with the assessment of the Scottish government, which in a paper published today (pdf) said schools in Scotland could not fully re-open for the foreseeable future. The Scottish document said: | He was speaking in response to a question about whether the UK government agreed with the assessment of the Scottish government, which in a paper published today (pdf) said schools in Scotland could not fully re-open for the foreseeable future. The Scottish document said: |
| Raab said cyber criminals, aided by hostile states, were trying to take advantage of the coronavirus crisis. He said: | Raab said cyber criminals, aided by hostile states, were trying to take advantage of the coronavirus crisis. He said: |
| He confirmed that, for the third day in a row, the number of coronavirus tests carried out fell below the 100,000 target set for the end of April. He said 84,806 tests were carried out on Monday. | He confirmed that, for the third day in a row, the number of coronavirus tests carried out fell below the 100,000 target set for the end of April. He said 84,806 tests were carried out on Monday. |
| He said ministers are looking at sports being played behind closed doors in the second phase of the coronavirus response. Asked about the Premier League possibly returning in mid-June, he replied: | He said ministers are looking at sports being played behind closed doors in the second phase of the coronavirus response. Asked about the Premier League possibly returning in mid-June, he replied: |
| The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus among prisoners and staff continues to rise, the latest Ministry of Justice data shows. | The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus among prisoners and staff continues to rise, the latest Ministry of Justice data shows. |
| As at 5pm on Monday, 362 prisoners had tested positive for the virus across 74 prisons, an increase of 1% in 24 hours, while infected staff rose by 1.5% to 401 workers in 67 prisons in the same period. The figures include those who have recovered. | As at 5pm on Monday, 362 prisoners had tested positive for the virus across 74 prisons, an increase of 1% in 24 hours, while infected staff rose by 1.5% to 401 workers in 67 prisons in the same period. The figures include those who have recovered. |
| A total of 19 prisoners and six prison staff are known to have contracted Covid-19 and died. | A total of 19 prisoners and six prison staff are known to have contracted Covid-19 and died. |
| There are 80,100 prisoners in England and Wales and around 33,000 staff in public-sector prisons. | There are 80,100 prisoners in England and Wales and around 33,000 staff in public-sector prisons. |
| Doctors in Birmingham have launched an urgent investigation into how and why Covid-19 is disproportionately affecting black, Asian and minority ethnic people, our colleague Haroon Siddique reports. | Doctors in Birmingham have launched an urgent investigation into how and why Covid-19 is disproportionately affecting black, Asian and minority ethnic people, our colleague Haroon Siddique reports. |
| Last month the government announced a similar nationwide inquiry but details remain sparse and the selection of some of those chosen to assist has proved controversial. Meanwhile, doctors at University hospitals Birmingham NHS trust are pressing ahead with their own review. | Last month the government announced a similar nationwide inquiry but details remain sparse and the selection of some of those chosen to assist has proved controversial. Meanwhile, doctors at University hospitals Birmingham NHS trust are pressing ahead with their own review. |
| Dr Adnan Sharif, a consultant nephrologist at Queen Elizabeth hospital, said: | Dr Adnan Sharif, a consultant nephrologist at Queen Elizabeth hospital, said: |
| Figures from another trust in the region show 64% of coronavirus deaths at Birmingham city hospital in March were from BAME communities, although it fell last month to 50%. | Figures from another trust in the region show 64% of coronavirus deaths at Birmingham city hospital in March were from BAME communities, although it fell last month to 50%. |
| University hospitals Birmingham NHS trust, one of the biggest teaching trusts in the country, has recorded the highest number of Covid-19 deaths of any trust. | University hospitals Birmingham NHS trust, one of the biggest teaching trusts in the country, has recorded the highest number of Covid-19 deaths of any trust. |
| The full story is here. | The full story is here. |
| Michael Gove has hinted that the UK would be prepared to abandon its goal of getting a zero-tariff, zero-quotas trade deal with the EU if it did not relent on its demand for a level playing field. | Michael Gove has hinted that the UK would be prepared to abandon its goal of getting a zero-tariff, zero-quotas trade deal with the EU if it did not relent on its demand for a level playing field. |
| Speaking to the House of Lords EU committee, the Cabinet Office minister said it might be a way of showing the EU how serious the UK was. He explained: | Speaking to the House of Lords EU committee, the Cabinet Office minister said it might be a way of showing the EU how serious the UK was. He explained: |
| The EU wants the UK to commit to a level playing field in workers’ rights, environmental protections and state aid so that it doesn’t have a “Singapore-type” competitor on its door step. | The EU wants the UK to commit to a level playing field in workers’ rights, environmental protections and state aid so that it doesn’t have a “Singapore-type” competitor on its door step. |
| Gove floated the idea of the UK accepting the case for a trade deal involving some tariffs as a solution. He said: | Gove floated the idea of the UK accepting the case for a trade deal involving some tariffs as a solution. He said: |
| Here is a clip of the moment Matt Hancock, the health secretary, criticised the ‘tone’ of Labour shadow minister and A&E doctor Rosena Allin-Khan after she said the government’s lack of testing had cost lives. She also said the figures were being manipulated to achieve a goal of 100,000 tests a day. | Here is a clip of the moment Matt Hancock, the health secretary, criticised the ‘tone’ of Labour shadow minister and A&E doctor Rosena Allin-Khan after she said the government’s lack of testing had cost lives. She also said the figures were being manipulated to achieve a goal of 100,000 tests a day. |
| Dr Allin-Khan later tweeted: | Dr Allin-Khan later tweeted: |
| The press conference is now over. | The press conference is now over. |
| Q: [From the Western Mail in Wales] These press conferences can be confusing for people in Wales, because some measures are UK-wide and some are England-only. Will you be clearer about this? | Q: [From the Western Mail in Wales] These press conferences can be confusing for people in Wales, because some measures are UK-wide and some are England-only. Will you be clearer about this? |
| Raab says the advice has been “remarkably consistent” across all four UK nations. | Raab says the advice has been “remarkably consistent” across all four UK nations. |
| Raab says it would be good to get sports events happening again. But this can only happen when the medical and scientific advice says it can be done safely. | Raab says it would be good to get sports events happening again. But this can only happen when the medical and scientific advice says it can be done safely. |
| Q: If sports are behind closed doors, will that apply until a vaccine is found? | Q: If sports are behind closed doors, will that apply until a vaccine is found? |
| Raab says he cannot look too far into the future because a vaccine is just one way of controlling the disease. Therapeutics (medicines) are another. Test, track and trace might be an answer too, he says. | Raab says he cannot look too far into the future because a vaccine is just one way of controlling the disease. Therapeutics (medicines) are another. Test, track and trace might be an answer too, he says. |
| Q: What are the prospects of schools opening in England? | Q: What are the prospects of schools opening in England? |
| Raab says he feels for parents dealing with home schooling, and for teachers. | Raab says he feels for parents dealing with home schooling, and for teachers. |
| He says the five tests are crucial. The government wants to avoid a second spike. | He says the five tests are crucial. The government wants to avoid a second spike. |
| He says Sage is looking at different options. But they could not open all schools without a real risk of R going above 1, he says. | He says Sage is looking at different options. But they could not open all schools without a real risk of R going above 1, he says. |
| Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools. | Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools. |
| Q: What do we know about obesity as a risk factor? Should people diet? | Q: What do we know about obesity as a risk factor? Should people diet? |
| McLean says obesity does seem to make you more at risk. | McLean says obesity does seem to make you more at risk. |
| It is best not to be obese, she says. But she says that there are better ways to control your weight than dieting. | It is best not to be obese, she says. But she says that there are better ways to control your weight than dieting. |
| Q: The Scottish government said today if schools went back in Scotland, hospitals could become overwhelmed, by as much as seven times. Does that apply to England? | Q: The Scottish government said today if schools went back in Scotland, hospitals could become overwhelmed, by as much as seven times. Does that apply to England? |
| McLean says it is hard to monitor children, because they tend to have very mild symptoms if they get it. | McLean says it is hard to monitor children, because they tend to have very mild symptoms if they get it. |
| Q: Is it the right time to do Brexit talks? Or are there benefits from doing it now? | Q: Is it the right time to do Brexit talks? Or are there benefits from doing it now? |
| Raab says both sides will want to avoid uncertainty. | Raab says both sides will want to avoid uncertainty. |
| We are making good progress, he says. Or progress, he says, correcting himself. | We are making good progress, he says. Or progress, he says, correcting himself. |
| But he says it is important to avoid future uncertainty. To do that, the UK and the EU should strike a trade deal. Both sides could then bounce back. Prolonging the uncertainty would make things worse, he says. | But he says it is important to avoid future uncertainty. To do that, the UK and the EU should strike a trade deal. Both sides could then bounce back. Prolonging the uncertainty would make things worse, he says. |
| Q: Why is the end-of-year deadline so important? | Q: Why is the end-of-year deadline so important? |
| The country wants certainty, Raab says. | The country wants certainty, Raab says. |
| Q: When the test, track and trace system is in place, do you think the death rate will come closer to the European average? | Q: When the test, track and trace system is in place, do you think the death rate will come closer to the European average? |
| Raab says the UK has been able to flatten the peak because of public cooperation with the lockdown. | Raab says the UK has been able to flatten the peak because of public cooperation with the lockdown. |
| He says test, track and trace should give the government the ability to move to the second phase. | He says test, track and trace should give the government the ability to move to the second phase. |
| McLean says the global death comparison chart shows cumulative deaths. So the numbers won’t go down. They can only go flat. | McLean says the global death comparison chart shows cumulative deaths. So the numbers won’t go down. They can only go flat. |
| And the UK will only match other countries if they catch up, McLean says. But she says she would not wish that on anyone. | And the UK will only match other countries if they catch up, McLean says. But she says she would not wish that on anyone. |
| Q: It is looking as if the UK now has the highest death toll in Europe. | Q: It is looking as if the UK now has the highest death toll in Europe. |
| Raab says his heart goes out to the families of all those who have died. | Raab says his heart goes out to the families of all those who have died. |
| But he says he does not think we will get a real verdict until this is all over. All-cause excess mortality is what counts. | But he says he does not think we will get a real verdict until this is all over. All-cause excess mortality is what counts. |
| He says countries count in different ways. And some are better at counting than others. | He says countries count in different ways. And some are better at counting than others. |
| He says the ONS is one of the best organisations of its kind in the world. And he says the government wants the most accurate figures, because that shapes policy. | He says the ONS is one of the best organisations of its kind in the world. And he says the government wants the most accurate figures, because that shapes policy. |