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| UK coronavirus live: government publishes new batch of coronavirus papers from Sage | UK coronavirus live: government publishes new batch of coronavirus papers from Sage |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Trial begins for new contact-tracing app while government’s top scientists are questioned by MPs | Trial begins for new contact-tracing app while government’s top scientists are questioned by MPs |
| Back at the health committee Jeremy Hunt, the chair, turns to the death figures. He addresses Prof Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England. | |
| Q: Why does the UK’s death rate appear so much higher than other European countries’. | |
| Harries says we need to wait until the pandemic is over before we can do a robust comparison. Different countries report deaths in different ways, she says. That makes comparing them “extremely difficult”. | |
| She says one way to compared them would be an age-standardised death rate per head of population. | |
| But countries do not report figures in this manner, she says. | |
| Turning back to the ONS latest weekly death figures (see 9.39am), this is from PA Media, where they have been looking at the figures in more detail. | |
| Vallance says the risk to children is much, much lower than to adults. | |
| But he says it is less clear whether children are just not getting the infection, or whether they are getting it but now showing symptoms. | |
| Q: Does R have to be falling in regions for the lockdown measures to be lifted? | |
| Vallance says R does not vary much. It might be 0.6 in London, and 0.7 elsewhere. | |
| One option would be to relax measures locally. There are pros and cons, he says. But you would have to control travel between regions. | |
| Q: Is there more risk to regions with low levels of infection, and hence low levels of immunity, from the lockdown being relaxed early? | |
| Vallance says there might be 10% antibody positivity in London. And in other places it might be 3 or 4%, he says. But he says the work on this is still ongoing. | |
| He does not think it is higher than in the mid teens anywhere. | |
| He says that means there is nowhere where a large proportion of people might be immune. | |
| Q: Has Sage ever given government just one option? | |
| Vallance says he doubts that Sage has ever given the government just one option. | |
| Back in the health committee, Vallance is asked if Sage always agrees on the advice it gives to ministers. | |
| Vallance says ministers make policy. Sage does not make policy. He says ministers make policy informed by the scientific advice. | |
| Q: But do you reach a consensus? | |
| Vallance says Sage does not just give ministers 16 different opinions. | |
| It tries to set out options. | |
| But it also explains the uncertainty surrounding those options. | |
| Here is an extract from the Sage paper (pdf) prepared for a meeting on 2 April. The note is dated 1 April. | |
| The paper advises that the lockdown restrictions should be lifted “very gradually”. It says: | |
| Back in the health committee Vallance is now talking about masks. | Back in the health committee Vallance is now talking about masks. |
| He says the evidence suggests that, in terms of preventing wearers from spreading coronavirus to others, the evidence in favour of masks or face coverings is “marginal but positive”. | He says the evidence suggests that, in terms of preventing wearers from spreading coronavirus to others, the evidence in favour of masks or face coverings is “marginal but positive”. |
| In healthcare settings there is a strong case for masks, he says. | In healthcare settings there is a strong case for masks, he says. |
| He says when people are outdoors, the risk is generally low. | He says when people are outdoors, the risk is generally low. |
| But he says there are circumstances in which masks can be useful. He says the risk of infection at one metre away from an infected source is 10 to 30 times higher than at two metres. | But he says there are circumstances in which masks can be useful. He says the risk of infection at one metre away from an infected source is 10 to 30 times higher than at two metres. |
| Here are some lines from the Sage documents published this morning picked up already by journalists. These are from the BBC’s Adam Fleming, the Times’ Chris Smyth, and Nick Eardley and David Shukman from the BBC. | Here are some lines from the Sage documents published this morning picked up already by journalists. These are from the BBC’s Adam Fleming, the Times’ Chris Smyth, and Nick Eardley and David Shukman from the BBC. |
| Vallance says he is thinking of setting up a sub-group of Sage to look at the economics of the crisis. | Vallance says he is thinking of setting up a sub-group of Sage to look at the economics of the crisis. |
| But he says Sage should not try to be the sum of all knowledge. | But he says Sage should not try to be the sum of all knowledge. |
| Government needs to consider advice from other policy perspectives, he says. | Government needs to consider advice from other policy perspectives, he says. |
| Q: Is excess deaths the best measure of the impact of coronavirus? | Q: Is excess deaths the best measure of the impact of coronavirus? |
| Vallance agrees. He says there was an excellent article in the Guardian recently making this point by Prof David Spiegelhalter, a statistician. | Vallance agrees. He says there was an excellent article in the Guardian recently making this point by Prof David Spiegelhalter, a statistician. |
| Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, praised the same article at a Downing Street briefing last week. It’s here. | Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, praised the same article at a Downing Street briefing last week. It’s here. |
| Greg Clark, the chair of the Commons science committee, who is contributing to this hearing, goes next. | Greg Clark, the chair of the Commons science committee, who is contributing to this hearing, goes next. |
| Vallance tells him he wants to get into a “more regular” rhythm of publishing Sage papers. They should not come out only every month. He suggests perhaps every two weeks, with papers being published on a set date. | Vallance tells him he wants to get into a “more regular” rhythm of publishing Sage papers. They should not come out only every month. He suggests perhaps every two weeks, with papers being published on a set date. |
| But some papers do not belong to the committee, he says. They come from academics who want to be able to publish them in the usual way. | But some papers do not belong to the committee, he says. They come from academics who want to be able to publish them in the usual way. |
| Jeremy Hunt, the chair, says he wants to know why Vallance thought it was wrong to introduce a lockdown when the R was between 2 and 3, if now the priority is to keep it below 1. | |
| Vallance says it is more acceptable to have a higher R if the number of cases is smaller. | Vallance says it is more acceptable to have a higher R if the number of cases is smaller. |
| There was a “very rapid” escalation of the numbers in March. And the doubling time suddenly became quicker. That is why the lockdown was essential, he says. | There was a “very rapid” escalation of the numbers in March. And the doubling time suddenly became quicker. That is why the lockdown was essential, he says. |
| Q: The government says it follows the scientific advice. Do you accept that Sage advice must be published? | Q: The government says it follows the scientific advice. Do you accept that Sage advice must be published? |
| Vallance says he believes in transparency. Sage is publishing information. It has published more this morning. (See 9.25am.) | Vallance says he believes in transparency. Sage is publishing information. It has published more this morning. (See 9.25am.) |
| But he says ministers also need advice to make decisions, and they should be able to consider that advice before it has been made public. | But he says ministers also need advice to make decisions, and they should be able to consider that advice before it has been made public. |
| Q: Do you still think it was right to delay lockdown? | Q: Do you still think it was right to delay lockdown? |
| Vallance says this is a new disease. We are still learning about it. | Vallance says this is a new disease. We are still learning about it. |
| As for whether we should have done something differently, he says that is a judgment for later. But he says he is in “no doubt” that some things should have been done differently. | As for whether we should have done something differently, he says that is a judgment for later. But he says he is in “no doubt” that some things should have been done differently. |
| He says maybe changing the timing by a few days may have made a difference. | He says maybe changing the timing by a few days may have made a difference. |
| But he questions whether it would have been right to act three weeks earlier. | But he questions whether it would have been right to act three weeks earlier. |
| UPDATE: Here is the full quote from Vallance in response to the question. | |
| Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, has now started giving evidence to the Commons health committee. | Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, has now started giving evidence to the Commons health committee. |
| He said the best estimate of the reproduction number of coronavirus (R - the infectivity rate) is between 0.6 and 0.9. | He said the best estimate of the reproduction number of coronavirus (R - the infectivity rate) is between 0.6 and 0.9. |
| Asked if people who have had it acquire immunity, he said the vast majority of people who had it had acquired antibodies. But he said it was not clear yet how much immunity this gave people. He said “some degree of protection” would be expected, but that this would “almost certainly” not provide absolute immunity. | |
| The Office for National Statistics has just published its latest weekly death figures. Here are are the main points. | The Office for National Statistics has just published its latest weekly death figures. Here are are the main points. |
| There were 21,997 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 24 April. That is 11,539 more than the average for this time of year, but a decrease of 354 on the previous week. | There were 21,997 deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 24 April. That is 11,539 more than the average for this time of year, but a decrease of 354 on the previous week. |
| Some 37.4% of deaths in that week involved coronavirus (in that it was mentioned on the death certificate). | Some 37.4% of deaths in that week involved coronavirus (in that it was mentioned on the death certificate). |
| The number of deaths in care homes (from all causes) was 7,911, up 595 on the previous week. That was almost as high as the of deaths in hospitals, which was 8,243, down 1,191 on the previous week. | The number of deaths in care homes (from all causes) was 7,911, up 595 on the previous week. That was almost as high as the of deaths in hospitals, which was 8,243, down 1,191 on the previous week. |
| Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, is about to give evidence to the Commons health committee alongside Prof Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England. | Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, is about to give evidence to the Commons health committee alongside Prof Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England. |
| I’ll be covering the hearing in detail. | I’ll be covering the hearing in detail. |
| As usual, there is a good scene-setter in Jack Blanchard’s London Playbook briefing. Here is an excerpt. | As usual, there is a good scene-setter in Jack Blanchard’s London Playbook briefing. Here is an excerpt. |
| The government has just released a large batch of papers from Sage, its Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. There are a mix of notes about meetings, from 4 February to 14 April, and background papers considered by the group. | The government has just released a large batch of papers from Sage, its Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. There are a mix of notes about meetings, from 4 February to 14 April, and background papers considered by the group. |
| The full set is available here. | The full set is available here. |
| Here are main items on the agenda for the day. | Here are main items on the agenda for the day. |
| 9.30am: Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Prof Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England, give evidence to the Commons health committee. | 9.30am: Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Prof Jenny Harries, the deputy chief medical officer for England, give evidence to the Commons health committee. |
| 9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes its latest weekly death figures. | 9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes its latest weekly death figures. |
| 12pm: Matt Hancock, the health and social care secretary, takes questions in the Commons. At 12.30 he will also answer an urgent question on coronavirus. | 12pm: Matt Hancock, the health and social care secretary, takes questions in the Commons. At 12.30 he will also answer an urgent question on coronavirus. |
| 12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing. | 12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing. |
| 12.30pm: The Scottish and Welsh governments are due to hold their daily coronavirus briefings. | 12.30pm: The Scottish and Welsh governments are due to hold their daily coronavirus briefings. |
| 2.30pm: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, gives evidence to the Lords EU committee about the Brexit trade talks. | 2.30pm: Michael Gove, the Cabinet Office minister, gives evidence to the Lords EU committee about the Brexit trade talks. |
| 2.30pm: The NFU president, Minette Batters, gives evidence to the Commons environment committee. | 2.30pm: The NFU president, Minette Batters, gives evidence to the Commons environment committee. |
| 5pm: The UK government is expected to hold its daily coronavirus briefing. | 5pm: The UK government is expected to hold its daily coronavirus briefing. |