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Coronavirus: China's plan to test everyone in Wuhan Coronavirus: China's plan to test everyone in Wuhan
(14 days later)
China has been carrying out an ambitious plan to test everyone in Wuhan, the city where the Covid-19 pandemic began, following the emergence of a cluster of new infections. China has completed a mass testing programme in Wuhan, the city where the Covid-19 pandemic began.
The authorities had pledged to test the city's inhabitants over a 10-day period, starting on 14 May. The authorities had pledged to test the entire city over a 10-day period after a cluster of new infections arose.
We've looked at what was achieved, and over what period of time. We've looked at the original plan, and what was achieved.
What was the target?What was the target?
Wuhan has an estimated population of 11 million people. Wuhan has an estimated population of 11 million people, so aiming to test everyone in 10 days would have been an ambitious target.
But those already tested in the seven days prior to mass testing starting in their district, as well as any children under six years of age, have been excluded. But those already tested in the seven days prior to mass testing starting, as well as any children under six years of age, were excluded from the programme.
The total number may have been reduced further given that some residents who left Wuhan before the lockdown in January may well not have returned. The total number of tests needed may have been reduced further given that some residents who left Wuhan before the lockdown in January may well not have returned.
The authorities said they would begin with people considered most at risk - such as those in more densely populated areas as well as those in key jobs such as healthcare. However, we don't have an exact number for this.
We then need to consider the timeframe, which has shifted somewhat since the initial announcement. Also, the timeframe has shifted somewhat since the initial announcement of a 10-day programme of testing, which was made on 12 May.
The Wuhan authorities later suggested different districts within the city would be starting at different times. The Wuhan authorities later said different districts within the city would be starting at different times.
"Each district finishes its tests within 10 days from the date it started them," the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control said, which effectively extended the deadline beyond the original pledge."Each district finishes its tests within 10 days from the date it started them," the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control said, which effectively extended the deadline beyond the original pledge.
It still remains a very ambitious plan, so do we know how close they've come to achieving their goal?
How many have been tested?How many have been tested?
All the data we have comes from the local health authorities in Wuhan, so we need to be aware of not having independent verification for the numbers. All the data we have comes from official sources in Wuhan, and there's no independent verification for the numbers.
But let's start with Wuhan's testing capacity before this latest mass campaign. As of 1 June, a total of 9.9 million people had been tested, according to the city health authorities.
There were about 60 centres across the city, with an overall maximum capacity of 100,000 tests a day, according to the official Hubei Daily newspaper. They said this marks the end of the mass testing programme.
That would have made it impossible to reach everyone in Wuhan over 10 days. So testing capacity would have needed to be significantly boosted to meet the challenge. They also said that if you include one million people tested in the seven days before the mass programme began in their area (and who didn't need retesting), that's a total of 10.9 million people tested out of the population of 11 million.
One way to scale up testing is to use a batch testing method. Chinese state media have reported that this has been used in Wuhan. It's taken longer to test everyone than the 10-day period that was promised when the plan was first announced.
This process groups individual test samples together to speed up the whole process. However, they did manage to collect as many as nine million test samples after 10 days, so nearly the entire population.
Reports suggest they have been using batches of between five and 10 samples in Wuhan, only carrying out individual tests if a batch proves positive. That was largely achieved through a significant boost to daily testing capacity.
This would be an efficient way to test large numbers of people where infection levels are low, as most batches would produce negative results. Before they began the mass testing, there were about 60 centres across the city, with an overall maximum capacity of 100,000 tests a day, according to the official Hubei Daily newspaper.
So far, the authorities say they have found just over 200 positive cases out of all the tests done so far. By 1 June, the authorities said they had 249 testing centres operating.
Even with this batch testing in place, processing capacity would have needed to be scaled up massively. They also mobilised teams to test old people, and the disabled or vulnerable in their own homes.
Health officials in Wuhan say they carried out 1.47m tests on a single day, 22 May - so a huge increase from the 100,000 a day prior to this testing campaign starting. There were more than 1,450 testing staff involved.
In total, according to the Hubei health commission website, nine million test samples had been taken by 24 May - 10 days after the campaign started. The other way they sped up the process was to use a batch testing method, which groups individual test samples together.
Of these, the commission says 6.57 million had been processed. Reports suggest they used batches of between five and 10 samples in Wuhan, only carrying out individual tests if a batch proved positive.
That's a large number and although it's not possible to verify independently, it appears that Wuhan has managed to reach a large proportion of its population during the 10 day period. And as many as 25% of all tests were done using this method.
However, by its own reckoning, the city still has some way to go to reach everyone. This is an efficient way to test large numbers of people where infection levels are low, as most batches would produce negative results.
And it appears to have worked in Wuhan because 97% of local communities across the city reported no positive tests, according to the official data.
The authorities said they had found just 300 positive cases (all without symptoms) out of all the tests done, and traced a further 1,174 close contacts of these people.
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