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| Poland election: Duda takes wafer-thin lead, exit poll indicates - live news | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| All the latest results and reaction from the presidential runoff between conservative incumbent and liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski | |
| The UK-based Polish journalist Jakub Krupa notes that with a margin this narrow, fewer than 150,000 votes separate the two candidates - meaning the final result could come down to the votes cast by the 180,000-plus Poles living in Britain ... | |
| Poland’s conservative president, Andrzej Duda, holds a lead of less than one percentage point over his challenger, the liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafał Trzaskowski, in the run-off round of the country’s presidential elections, according to an official exit poll. | |
| The poll gave Duda, allied to the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), 50.4% of the vote, compared to 49.6% for Trzaskowski, of the opposition Civic Platform (PO). | |
| The final result is too close to call. | |
| There Ipsos exit poll, expected in less than 10 minutes, is carried out for all three major Polish broadcasters: TVP, TVN and Polsat. | |
| An updated late poll should follow at some tie between 11pm and midnight local time. | |
| Here is Christian’s dispatch from earlier this afternoon from Otwock, a town of 35,000 inhabitants outside Warsaw where Duda won a plurality of votes in the first round. | |
| The Guardian’s Christian Davies has been out and about at polling stations since they opened this morning. | |
| He reports there was controversy after the country’s national emergency alert system, used to send text messages to everyone with a mobile phone registered in Poland, sent out a message encouraging older people to vote. | |
| Observers and former election officials described the message as an attempt by the rulig PiS party to use state resources to get out its vote. Older voters, especially in small towns and rural areas, make up a large proportion of the party’s voter base and party officials had been concerned fear of the coronavirus may suppress turnout of its core vote. | |
| “These alerts are not supposed to be used for sending this kind of information, but for warning people of approaching cataclysms,” Wojciech Hermeliński, a judge and former head of Poland’s electoral commission told liberal broadsheet Gazeta Wyborcza. | |
| “The government sent this alert because they are trying to encourage a particular group to vote.” | |
| Turnout in this neck-and-neck run-off looks like being very high - possibly the highest in any post-1989 election - which doubtless reflects strong feelings on both sides of the country’s deep political divide. | Turnout in this neck-and-neck run-off looks like being very high - possibly the highest in any post-1989 election - which doubtless reflects strong feelings on both sides of the country’s deep political divide. |
| By 5pm local time 52.10% of registered voters had cast their ballots, well above the 47.89% at the same time during the first round on 28 June. | By 5pm local time 52.10% of registered voters had cast their ballots, well above the 47.89% at the same time during the first round on 28 June. |
| In the 2015 election, turnout at the same time was 40.51%. | In the 2015 election, turnout at the same time was 40.51%. |
| Voting continues until 9pm local time and as expected, the race is nail-bitingly close. The only indication of a possible result we will have will be the exit poll, carried out by respected pollster Ipsos. | |
| However, the poll’s margin of error is 2% - meaning a narrow margin of victory for either candidate could easily change as the night wears on. | However, the poll’s margin of error is 2% - meaning a narrow margin of victory for either candidate could easily change as the night wears on. |
| In an interview published today by the Polish portal OKO.press, Paweł Predko of Ipsos admitted he was nervous about the close margins at play in today’s vote. He said he was particularly worried that the exit poll showing a narrow win for either candidate would lead people to assume the election was over, when actually things could change as the real votes are counted. | In an interview published today by the Polish portal OKO.press, Paweł Predko of Ipsos admitted he was nervous about the close margins at play in today’s vote. He said he was particularly worried that the exit poll showing a narrow win for either candidate would lead people to assume the election was over, when actually things could change as the real votes are counted. |
| Although the exit poll has a large sample size of around 50,000, and is weighted to take multiple factors into account, around 10% of people generally refuse to say who they voted for, requiring the poll to be weighted for the assumption that fewer Duda than Trzaskowski voters are willing to speak to pollsters. | Although the exit poll has a large sample size of around 50,000, and is weighted to take multiple factors into account, around 10% of people generally refuse to say who they voted for, requiring the poll to be weighted for the assumption that fewer Duda than Trzaskowski voters are willing to speak to pollsters. |
| It also does not take into account votes by Poles abroad. However, Predko said he was confident that the poll would be accurate within the 2% margin of error. | It also does not take into account votes by Poles abroad. However, Predko said he was confident that the poll would be accurate within the 2% margin of error. |
| Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Poland’s presidential election runoff, a knife-edge contest whose outcome will determine the country’s trajectory for the foreseeable future. | Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Poland’s presidential election runoff, a knife-edge contest whose outcome will determine the country’s trajectory for the foreseeable future. |
| It pits the incumbent, Andrzej Duda, allied to the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), against liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of the opposition Civic Platform (PO) - and most polls have the two separated by less than a percentage point. | It pits the incumbent, Andrzej Duda, allied to the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), against liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski of the opposition Civic Platform (PO) - and most polls have the two separated by less than a percentage point. |
| Duda has has led a polarising campaign, promoting “family values” and attacking LGBT rights while promising to defend popular social welfare payments. A win for him would allow PiS to pursue controversial judicial and other reforms seen by many in the EU as eroding the rule of law and democratic backsliding. | Duda has has led a polarising campaign, promoting “family values” and attacking LGBT rights while promising to defend popular social welfare payments. A win for him would allow PiS to pursue controversial judicial and other reforms seen by many in the EU as eroding the rule of law and democratic backsliding. |
| While the role of president holds few executive powers, victory for Trzaskowski, who supports same-sex civil partnerships, could begin to loosen the PiS’s grip on Polish politics. He has promised to roll back the government’s legal reforms and would present a more liberal, pro-EU Polish face to the outside world. | While the role of president holds few executive powers, victory for Trzaskowski, who supports same-sex civil partnerships, could begin to loosen the PiS’s grip on Polish politics. He has promised to roll back the government’s legal reforms and would present a more liberal, pro-EU Polish face to the outside world. |
| While final official results are not expected until Monday morning, usually reliable exit polls should be released soon after polls close at 9pm local time. | While final official results are not expected until Monday morning, usually reliable exit polls should be released soon after polls close at 9pm local time. |
| We’ll be bringing you all the latest news as it happens, along with comment from the Guardian’s Christian Davies in Warsaw and central and eastern Europe correspondent Shaun Walker. | We’ll be bringing you all the latest news as it happens, along with comment from the Guardian’s Christian Davies in Warsaw and central and eastern Europe correspondent Shaun Walker. |