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| Victoria records no coronavirus cases as federal parliament returns – politics live | Victoria records no coronavirus cases as federal parliament returns – politics live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Lockdown in Melbourne extended as authorities monitor outbreak in city’s north, and federal parliament resumes with the head of Treasury to face questions at Senate estimates. Follow all the latest updates | Lockdown in Melbourne extended as authorities monitor outbreak in city’s north, and federal parliament resumes with the head of Treasury to face questions at Senate estimates. Follow all the latest updates |
| Queensland has recorded no new cases of Covid. | |
| I mean, he’s not wrong? | |
| Ireland, which had similar daily case numbers to Victoria when it went into its second-wave hard lockdown, has now seen case numbers of over 1000 a day. | |
| For those watching the Groom LNP pre-selection, the split vote meant a victor came up the middle - knocking off both favourites - David van Gend (for the conservatives) and Rebecca Vonhoff (for the common sense brigade) | |
| Mining engineer Garth Hamilton won pre-selection in the government’s safest seat (against Labor) in the nation, meaning he just won himself a job for life (if he so wishes/doesn’t screw it up) | |
| The Actuaries Institute has looked at Australia’s mortality data, and found that deaths are down, across the board - as lockdowns and social distancing saved us from more than just Covid. | |
| From the Institute’s statement: | |
| And from the paper: | |
| Overall the various non pharmaceutical measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the period up to the end of June across Australia (lockdowns, social distancing measures, wearing of facemasks, etc) have almost certainly reduced mortality from other causes across Australia, with deaths during June being 400 lower than the bottom of the likely range. | |
| The Labor senator Katy Gallagher asks about jobs figures attached to the jobmaker program. Were the various policies agreed and then the job estimates came after that? | |
| Steven Kennedy says there’s significant uncertainty around the economic shock, and programs are designed to “flex with the shock”. | |
| He says the job estimates attached to programs like jobmaker are an “iteration”. | |
| It’s hard to predict how programs will work in an economic shock like the one we are in, he says. “I won’t pretend it’s a precise science,” the Treasury secretary says. | |
| “The government is going to have to remain very alive as to how it will continue to respond. The government is going to have to be nimble. It’s an iterative process.” | |
| He says when it comes to estimating how many jobs will be created as a result of various programs, “we’ve not built it up on a mechanical bottom-up basis”. | |
| He says the Treasury is working towards “a full employment objective” but he says there’s a lot of dislocation in the labour market. | |
| The hope is unemployment peaks at 8% (which he says would be a comparatively good result in the circumstances). He says the objective is to drive the unemployment rate as low as possible consistent with maintaining persistent low inflation. | |
| Gallagher asks whether Treasury’s advice was reflected in the October budget measures. | |
| Kennedy says yes, it was. “I can’t tell you if [the policy design] is optimal, but it does represent our advice ... and it reflects our collective experience going through the GFC.” | |
| Asked whether the government should have spent more, whether there should be more stimulus, Kennedy emphasises again there is room to move if more fiscal support proves necessary but the current spend is “proportionate” to the circumstances. | |
| “There is no set and forget on fiscal policy”. (It’s interesting how much Kennedy is emphasising this point this morning: we might need to spend more.) | |
| Gallagher asks whether it is wise to withdraw jobseeker and jobkeeper given all the unknowns? Kennedy says it is “still my judgment that jobkeeper should taper in March”. | |
| The finance minister, Mathias Cormann, says the economy has to “adjust to the environment we are in”. | |
| He says some businesses will not adjust to the new environment. “If we didn’t allow that adjustment to take place the economic recovery would be slower and weaker.” | |
| Josh Frydenberg has responded to Asic deputy chair Daniel Crennan’s resignation: | |
| Here is a little more from Steven Kennedy’s opening statement to budget estimates, as reported by Murph – it’s on how he sees the budget moving forward: | |
| If ever there was a time to look up Dan Murphy’s opening hours, it is now. | |
| Morning all. Steven Kennedy, the secretary of Treasury, is appearing at Senate estimates this morning. | Morning all. Steven Kennedy, the secretary of Treasury, is appearing at Senate estimates this morning. |
| “The pandemic is far from over,” Kennedy says in his opening address, noting that continued vigilance will be required to ensure Australia meets the challenges of the crisis. | “The pandemic is far from over,” Kennedy says in his opening address, noting that continued vigilance will be required to ensure Australia meets the challenges of the crisis. |
| The pandemic has led to a profound global economic shock, he says. Kennedy notes the second wave of infections in many countries. | The pandemic has led to a profound global economic shock, he says. Kennedy notes the second wave of infections in many countries. |
| Of the current recession Kennedy notes it is a “truly novel economic shock”. GDP in Australia contracted by record percentage in the last quarter. | Of the current recession Kennedy notes it is a “truly novel economic shock”. GDP in Australia contracted by record percentage in the last quarter. |
| Effective unemployment peaked at 15%. Kennedy says the economy is, however, rebounding. | Effective unemployment peaked at 15%. Kennedy says the economy is, however, rebounding. |
| He says there’s a two-speed economy (not his words, but that’s what he’s describing) – with some states experiencing near normal conditions and Victoria still in lockdown. | He says there’s a two-speed economy (not his words, but that’s what he’s describing) – with some states experiencing near normal conditions and Victoria still in lockdown. |
| Kennedy notes that higher income households in the main experienced no significant change in their fortunes in the opening months of the pandemic, whereas lower income households experienced a 20% increase in income (presumably due to the income support through jobkeeper and jobseeker). | Kennedy notes that higher income households in the main experienced no significant change in their fortunes in the opening months of the pandemic, whereas lower income households experienced a 20% increase in income (presumably due to the income support through jobkeeper and jobseeker). |
| He says the government has delivered $257bn in direct support through the crisis. Kennedy says the Treasury forecasts unemployment to have a six in front of it by 2022, but he says the lessons of previous recessions is that labour markets can take longer to recover. | He says the government has delivered $257bn in direct support through the crisis. Kennedy says the Treasury forecasts unemployment to have a six in front of it by 2022, but he says the lessons of previous recessions is that labour markets can take longer to recover. |
| He says the pandemic is reshaping the global economy. Some businesses will close and never reopen. Some jobs will be lost permanently. Many transactions will move online. | He says the pandemic is reshaping the global economy. Some businesses will close and never reopen. Some jobs will be lost permanently. Many transactions will move online. |
| Kennedy acknowledges debt is high in Australia now but he says the environment of low borrowing costs means there is more headroom for the government to fund another round of fiscal stimulus should that be required – Kennedy characterises this as “additional targeted and temporary fiscal support measures to be adopted, should they be required”. | Kennedy acknowledges debt is high in Australia now but he says the environment of low borrowing costs means there is more headroom for the government to fund another round of fiscal stimulus should that be required – Kennedy characterises this as “additional targeted and temporary fiscal support measures to be adopted, should they be required”. |
| Over in health estimates, the Covidsafe app is getting a workout, as predicted: | Over in health estimates, the Covidsafe app is getting a workout, as predicted: |
| Here is Daniel Crennan’s statement: | Here is Daniel Crennan’s statement: |
| The regulator’s deputy has resigned after a review into his moving costs. | The regulator’s deputy has resigned after a review into his moving costs. |
| Daniel Crennan says he was intending to retire in July 2021 but “in the current circumstances, I have decided that it is in the best interests of Asic for me to resign now”. | Daniel Crennan says he was intending to retire in July 2021 but “in the current circumstances, I have decided that it is in the best interests of Asic for me to resign now”. |
| We’ll have some more on this. | We’ll have some more on this. |
| The good people at About the House have the day’s Reps’ events all mapped out for you. | The good people at About the House have the day’s Reps’ events all mapped out for you. |
| Not sure where they would have gone, while in lockdown, so perhaps they just don’t want Tim in their bubble? | Not sure where they would have gone, while in lockdown, so perhaps they just don’t want Tim in their bubble? |
| (The Melbourne MP Tim Smith is again calling a Sydney radio station to make his point, where he might reach “fans” but not voters.) | (The Melbourne MP Tim Smith is again calling a Sydney radio station to make his point, where he might reach “fans” but not voters.) |
| Meanwhile, another of 2020’s crossover events is continuing along nicely: | Meanwhile, another of 2020’s crossover events is continuing along nicely: |
| Anthony Albanese also called into Sydney radio 2GB this morning. | Anthony Albanese also called into Sydney radio 2GB this morning. |
| He was asked about the Kevin Rudd-led push for a royal commission into the Murdoch-owned media. He said a lot of words, without really saying whether or not he supported it: | He was asked about the Kevin Rudd-led push for a royal commission into the Murdoch-owned media. He said a lot of words, without really saying whether or not he supported it: |
| Jim Chalmers went on the front foot this morning. | Jim Chalmers went on the front foot this morning. |
| Here is some of what he had to say at doors: | Here is some of what he had to say at doors: |
| This is also excellent news – so far all the tests completed on those potentially linked to the northern Melbourne cluster have come back negative. | This is also excellent news – so far all the tests completed on those potentially linked to the northern Melbourne cluster have come back negative. |
| From DHHS: | From DHHS: |
| Nearly 15,000 tests since last Tuesday (October 20) are providing the best possible insight into the movement of coronavirus in the northern metropolitan suburbs. | Nearly 15,000 tests since last Tuesday (October 20) are providing the best possible insight into the movement of coronavirus in the northern metropolitan suburbs. |
| Victoria’s commander of testing and community engagement Jeroen Weimar said in addition there were no new cases linked to the northern metropolitan outbreak. | Victoria’s commander of testing and community engagement Jeroen Weimar said in addition there were no new cases linked to the northern metropolitan outbreak. |
| “This is one of the best outcomes we could hope to see, but the only reason we’re able to see it is because such a large number of people across the northern suburbs have taken the time since this outbreak was first identified to get tested,” Mr Weimar said. | “This is one of the best outcomes we could hope to see, but the only reason we’re able to see it is because such a large number of people across the northern suburbs have taken the time since this outbreak was first identified to get tested,” Mr Weimar said. |
| “We have results for the 2,100 people who got tested yesterday and there are hundreds more samples going through the labs over the course of the day. Their commitment is a massive contribution to identifying what we hope are the very few remaining cases of Covid-19 in Melbourne. | “We have results for the 2,100 people who got tested yesterday and there are hundreds more samples going through the labs over the course of the day. Their commitment is a massive contribution to identifying what we hope are the very few remaining cases of Covid-19 in Melbourne. |
| “Testing continued into the evening last night and we expect to see those results come through today. Testing in these five communities will continue to be a focus.” | “Testing continued into the evening last night and we expect to see those results come through today. Testing in these five communities will continue to be a focus.” |
| Anthony Albanese’s team had this ready to go. | Anthony Albanese’s team had this ready to go. |