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| Victoria records no coronavirus cases as federal parliament returns – politics live | Victoria records no coronavirus cases as federal parliament returns – politics live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Lockdown in Melbourne extended as authorities monitor outbreak in city’s north, and federal parliament resumes with the head of Treasury to face questions at Senate estimates. Follow all the latest updates | Lockdown in Melbourne extended as authorities monitor outbreak in city’s north, and federal parliament resumes with the head of Treasury to face questions at Senate estimates. Follow all the latest updates |
| Marise Payne is about to hold a press conference. | |
| The foreign minister is notoriously media shy, so this is a rare event. | |
| Labor’s Murray Watt is asking attorney general’s department officials about this press release from Matt Canavan and George Christensen confirming the government will provide a clear and certain statutory definition and universal and strengthened access to casual conversion. | |
| In the release, the attorney-general Christian Porter is quoted as saying: | |
| The officials confirm that they have provided a draft bill to Porter for industrial relations changes, intend to conduct consultation, adding that the timeframe to bring legislation this year is “tight” but doable. | |
| Watt expresses scepticism that a definition of casual - which has plagued the common law for decades - will be so easily achieved. | |
| It’s curious that before this spell of questioning, Malcolm Roberts asked if during the pandemic is “the right time to be making sweeping changes to IR” - suggesting scepticism also from One Nation. | |
| Mike Bowers was in the chamber as Helen Haines introduced her bill, on behalf of the crossbench. | |
| And here is what the chamber looked like as she did it | |
| Back in Treasury estimates the Green senator Nick McKim is asking about the gender dimensions of the downturn and the budget. Steven Kennedy says the recession has hit women harder than men. | |
| The impacts have been “uneven in gender terms, but that’s changing,” Kennedy says. | |
| “The gender impact appears to us to have lessened quite a bit”. | |
| The Treasury secretary says the department remains concerned about the impact of the recession on young people because young people have lost work and employment opportunities but these haven’t rebounded as yet. | |
| Attorney General’s Department officials have confirmed that a definition of casual employee and preventing backpay of conditions for misclassified workers are likely to feature in the industrial relations reform package. | |
| Under questioning from the One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts, the deputy secretary, Martin Hehir, said we “need to get a definition of casual employees right” and ensure the “current uncertainty is dealt with effectively”. | |
| He said roundtables were confidential but both Scott Morrison and Christian Porter had said they were “looking to find ways to capture workers who are genuinely casual” and ensure that for “those who aren’t casuals to allow them a process to convert or identify them upfront”. | |
| Roberts asked about backpay of entitlements if a worker was misclassified as a casual and then was later found to be permanent. | |
| Hehir noted the federal court case of Rosatto – who was found to be entitled to backpay – but said the case was under appeal to the high court. | |
| The government has “sought to appeal to ensure that where someone received loading intended to compensate for the [national employment standards], intended to compensate for leave and redundancy [entitlements], that they shouldn’t be able to be claimed”. | |
| The Labor senator Katy Gallagher is asking about the business incentives in the budget (which have a revenue forgone cost north of $29bn) – including the full expensing measure. | |
| Steven Kennedy says these investment allowances, which have deployed in Australia since the GFC, work. In revenue terms, investment allowances net out over time. There’s a big initial cost to the budget, but then revenue returns. | |
| The finance minister Mathias Cormann says: “You recoup all of it eventually”. | |
| Kennedy says this recession hasn’t disrupted the flow of credit. This isn’t a banking crisis. This is an economic shock caused by the government shutting down the economy to safeguard public health. | |
| Kennedy says it’s hard to predict how the economy will recover because this is a new kind of recession to manage, but he says he suspects there is a “demand impulse” out there (I think he means pent up demand. People waiting to spend and invest and hire once the restrictions end). | |
| Kennedy says it is possible because of that suppressed impulse that the economy could roar back more rapidly than normal – but it all depends on the health side. If the pandemic isn’t contained then nothing roars back. | |
| Gallagher asks what new information the government is waiting on before it decides whether to reduce the jobseeker payment again after Christmas. | |
| Kennedy’s answer is quite interesting. He says the government needs to consider the adequacy of the payment (which has been an ongoing debate about Newstart). He characterises this as “the structural position”. | |
| He says the Treasury needs more information about the labour market before providing its final advice to the government. | |
| Kennedy notes it has been a useful contribution to supporting demand in the economy to have people on low incomes given money to spend. | |
| (Sounds like the Treasury secretary doesn’t think it would be a brilliant idea for the Newstart payment to return to where it was pre-crisis). | |
| Helen Haines has put in her bill | |
| Queensland has recorded no new cases of Covid. | Queensland has recorded no new cases of Covid. |
| I mean, he’s not wrong? | I mean, he’s not wrong? |
| Ireland, which had similar daily case numbers to Victoria when it went into its second-wave hard lockdown, has now seen case numbers of over 1000 a day. | Ireland, which had similar daily case numbers to Victoria when it went into its second-wave hard lockdown, has now seen case numbers of over 1000 a day. |
| For those watching the Groom LNP pre-selection, the split vote meant a victor came up the middle - knocking off both favourites - David van Gend (for the conservatives) and Rebecca Vonhoff (for the common sense brigade) | For those watching the Groom LNP pre-selection, the split vote meant a victor came up the middle - knocking off both favourites - David van Gend (for the conservatives) and Rebecca Vonhoff (for the common sense brigade) |
| Mining engineer Garth Hamilton won pre-selection in the government’s safest seat (against Labor) in the nation, meaning he just won himself a job for life (if he so wishes/doesn’t screw it up) | Mining engineer Garth Hamilton won pre-selection in the government’s safest seat (against Labor) in the nation, meaning he just won himself a job for life (if he so wishes/doesn’t screw it up) |
| The Actuaries Institute has looked at Australia’s mortality data, and found that deaths are down, across the board - as lockdowns and social distancing saved us from more than just Covid. | The Actuaries Institute has looked at Australia’s mortality data, and found that deaths are down, across the board - as lockdowns and social distancing saved us from more than just Covid. |
| From the Institute’s statement: | From the Institute’s statement: |
| And from the paper: | And from the paper: |
| Overall the various non pharmaceutical measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the period up to the end of June across Australia (lockdowns, social distancing measures, wearing of facemasks, etc) have almost certainly reduced mortality from other causes across Australia, with deaths during June being 400 lower than the bottom of the likely range. | Overall the various non pharmaceutical measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the period up to the end of June across Australia (lockdowns, social distancing measures, wearing of facemasks, etc) have almost certainly reduced mortality from other causes across Australia, with deaths during June being 400 lower than the bottom of the likely range. |
| The Labor senator Katy Gallagher asks about jobs figures attached to the jobmaker program. Were the various policies agreed and then the job estimates came after that? | The Labor senator Katy Gallagher asks about jobs figures attached to the jobmaker program. Were the various policies agreed and then the job estimates came after that? |
| Steven Kennedy says there’s significant uncertainty around the economic shock, and programs are designed to “flex with the shock”. | Steven Kennedy says there’s significant uncertainty around the economic shock, and programs are designed to “flex with the shock”. |
| He says the job estimates attached to programs like jobmaker are an “iteration”. | He says the job estimates attached to programs like jobmaker are an “iteration”. |
| It’s hard to predict how programs will work in an economic shock like the one we are in, he says. “I won’t pretend it’s a precise science,” the Treasury secretary says. | It’s hard to predict how programs will work in an economic shock like the one we are in, he says. “I won’t pretend it’s a precise science,” the Treasury secretary says. |
| “The government is going to have to remain very alive as to how it will continue to respond. The government is going to have to be nimble. It’s an iterative process.” | “The government is going to have to remain very alive as to how it will continue to respond. The government is going to have to be nimble. It’s an iterative process.” |
| He says when it comes to estimating how many jobs will be created as a result of various programs, “we’ve not built it up on a mechanical bottom-up basis”. | He says when it comes to estimating how many jobs will be created as a result of various programs, “we’ve not built it up on a mechanical bottom-up basis”. |
| He says the Treasury is working towards “a full employment objective” but he says there’s a lot of dislocation in the labour market. | He says the Treasury is working towards “a full employment objective” but he says there’s a lot of dislocation in the labour market. |
| The hope is unemployment peaks at 8% (which he says would be a comparatively good result in the circumstances). He says the objective is to drive the unemployment rate as low as possible consistent with maintaining persistent low inflation. | The hope is unemployment peaks at 8% (which he says would be a comparatively good result in the circumstances). He says the objective is to drive the unemployment rate as low as possible consistent with maintaining persistent low inflation. |
| Gallagher asks whether Treasury’s advice was reflected in the October budget measures. | Gallagher asks whether Treasury’s advice was reflected in the October budget measures. |
| Kennedy says yes, it was. “I can’t tell you if [the policy design] is optimal, but it does represent our advice ... and it reflects our collective experience going through the GFC.” | Kennedy says yes, it was. “I can’t tell you if [the policy design] is optimal, but it does represent our advice ... and it reflects our collective experience going through the GFC.” |
| Asked whether the government should have spent more, whether there should be more stimulus, Kennedy emphasises again there is room to move if more fiscal support proves necessary but the current spend is “proportionate” to the circumstances. | Asked whether the government should have spent more, whether there should be more stimulus, Kennedy emphasises again there is room to move if more fiscal support proves necessary but the current spend is “proportionate” to the circumstances. |
| “There is no set and forget on fiscal policy”. (It’s interesting how much Kennedy is emphasising this point this morning: we might need to spend more.) | “There is no set and forget on fiscal policy”. (It’s interesting how much Kennedy is emphasising this point this morning: we might need to spend more.) |
| Gallagher asks whether it is wise to withdraw jobseeker and jobkeeper given all the unknowns? Kennedy says it is “still my judgment that jobkeeper should taper in March”. | Gallagher asks whether it is wise to withdraw jobseeker and jobkeeper given all the unknowns? Kennedy says it is “still my judgment that jobkeeper should taper in March”. |
| The finance minister, Mathias Cormann, says the economy has to “adjust to the environment we are in”. | The finance minister, Mathias Cormann, says the economy has to “adjust to the environment we are in”. |
| He says some businesses will not adjust to the new environment. “If we didn’t allow that adjustment to take place the economic recovery would be slower and weaker.” | He says some businesses will not adjust to the new environment. “If we didn’t allow that adjustment to take place the economic recovery would be slower and weaker.” |
| Josh Frydenberg has responded to Asic deputy chair Daniel Crennan’s resignation: | Josh Frydenberg has responded to Asic deputy chair Daniel Crennan’s resignation: |
| Here is a little more from Steven Kennedy’s opening statement to budget estimates, as reported by Murph – it’s on how he sees the budget moving forward: | Here is a little more from Steven Kennedy’s opening statement to budget estimates, as reported by Murph – it’s on how he sees the budget moving forward: |
| If ever there was a time to look up Dan Murphy’s opening hours, it is now. | If ever there was a time to look up Dan Murphy’s opening hours, it is now. |
| Morning all. Steven Kennedy, the secretary of Treasury, is appearing at Senate estimates this morning. | Morning all. Steven Kennedy, the secretary of Treasury, is appearing at Senate estimates this morning. |
| “The pandemic is far from over,” Kennedy says in his opening address, noting that continued vigilance will be required to ensure Australia meets the challenges of the crisis. | “The pandemic is far from over,” Kennedy says in his opening address, noting that continued vigilance will be required to ensure Australia meets the challenges of the crisis. |
| The pandemic has led to a profound global economic shock, he says. Kennedy notes the second wave of infections in many countries. | The pandemic has led to a profound global economic shock, he says. Kennedy notes the second wave of infections in many countries. |
| Of the current recession Kennedy notes it is a “truly novel economic shock”. GDP in Australia contracted by record percentage in the last quarter. | Of the current recession Kennedy notes it is a “truly novel economic shock”. GDP in Australia contracted by record percentage in the last quarter. |
| Effective unemployment peaked at 15%. Kennedy says the economy is, however, rebounding. | Effective unemployment peaked at 15%. Kennedy says the economy is, however, rebounding. |
| He says there’s a two-speed economy (not his words, but that’s what he’s describing) – with some states experiencing near normal conditions and Victoria still in lockdown. | He says there’s a two-speed economy (not his words, but that’s what he’s describing) – with some states experiencing near normal conditions and Victoria still in lockdown. |
| Kennedy notes that higher income households in the main experienced no significant change in their fortunes in the opening months of the pandemic, whereas lower income households experienced a 20% increase in income (presumably due to the income support through jobkeeper and jobseeker). | Kennedy notes that higher income households in the main experienced no significant change in their fortunes in the opening months of the pandemic, whereas lower income households experienced a 20% increase in income (presumably due to the income support through jobkeeper and jobseeker). |
| He says the government has delivered $257bn in direct support through the crisis. Kennedy says the Treasury forecasts unemployment to have a six in front of it by 2022, but he says the lessons of previous recessions is that labour markets can take longer to recover. | He says the government has delivered $257bn in direct support through the crisis. Kennedy says the Treasury forecasts unemployment to have a six in front of it by 2022, but he says the lessons of previous recessions is that labour markets can take longer to recover. |
| He says the pandemic is reshaping the global economy. Some businesses will close and never reopen. Some jobs will be lost permanently. Many transactions will move online. | He says the pandemic is reshaping the global economy. Some businesses will close and never reopen. Some jobs will be lost permanently. Many transactions will move online. |
| Kennedy acknowledges debt is high in Australia now but he says the environment of low borrowing costs means there is more headroom for the government to fund another round of fiscal stimulus should that be required – Kennedy characterises this as “additional targeted and temporary fiscal support measures to be adopted, should they be required”. | Kennedy acknowledges debt is high in Australia now but he says the environment of low borrowing costs means there is more headroom for the government to fund another round of fiscal stimulus should that be required – Kennedy characterises this as “additional targeted and temporary fiscal support measures to be adopted, should they be required”. |