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| Is China really open to improving ties with Australia? | Is China really open to improving ties with Australia? |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, met recently | Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and her Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, met recently |
| After years of escalating tensions with Australia, China appears to have recently had a sudden change of heart. | |
| "The Chinese side is willing to take the pulse [on bilateral ties], recalibrate, and set sail again," Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week, according to Reuters. | "The Chinese side is willing to take the pulse [on bilateral ties], recalibrate, and set sail again," Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week, according to Reuters. |
| For more than two years, the Australian government could not get its Chinese counterparts to pick up the phone, let alone agree to a meeting. | For more than two years, the Australian government could not get its Chinese counterparts to pick up the phone, let alone agree to a meeting. |
| But in a possible sign the ice is thawing, the countries' defence ministers met in June, and their foreign ministers met earlier this month on the sidelines of the G20 summit. | But in a possible sign the ice is thawing, the countries' defence ministers met in June, and their foreign ministers met earlier this month on the sidelines of the G20 summit. |
| How significant is it? | How significant is it? |
| 'Words matter' | 'Words matter' |
| Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong hopes the talks are the "first step towards stabilising the relationship". | Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong hopes the talks are the "first step towards stabilising the relationship". |
| Relations soured when Australia in 2018 banned Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from the 5G network, called for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 and criticised China's human rights record in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. | Relations soured when Australia in 2018 banned Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei from the 5G network, called for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 and criticised China's human rights record in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. |
| China responded by imposing trade barriers on Australian exports - from barley and lobsters to timber and coal - and by cutting off all ministerial contact. | China responded by imposing trade barriers on Australian exports - from barley and lobsters to timber and coal - and by cutting off all ministerial contact. |
| The wine industry was particularly hard hit. China was Australia's most lucrative market - worth a third of all export revenue - before tariffs arrived in 2020. | The wine industry was particularly hard hit. China was Australia's most lucrative market - worth a third of all export revenue - before tariffs arrived in 2020. |
| But since the election of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government in May, there's a been a flurry of bilateral activity and - some say - cause for optimism. | But since the election of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's government in May, there's a been a flurry of bilateral activity and - some say - cause for optimism. |
| At this point, it's all just rhetoric, says Jennifer Hsu from the Lowy Institute think tank. | At this point, it's all just rhetoric, says Jennifer Hsu from the Lowy Institute think tank. |
| "I don't think this is an olive branch… [and] I wouldn't say it's a reset," she tells the BBC. "There haven't been any promises made by either side yet." | "I don't think this is an olive branch… [and] I wouldn't say it's a reset," she tells the BBC. "There haven't been any promises made by either side yet." |
| But the shift in Australia's tone - away from the "chest beating" of Scott Morrison's government - is still a big deal, she says. | But the shift in Australia's tone - away from the "chest beating" of Scott Morrison's government - is still a big deal, she says. |
| Beijing was critical of that government's comments, including those by then Defence Minister Peter Dutton who compared China to 1930s Germany and said Australia had to "prepare for war". | Beijing was critical of that government's comments, including those by then Defence Minister Peter Dutton who compared China to 1930s Germany and said Australia had to "prepare for war". |
| Mr Wang alluded to that earlier this month, saying the "root cause" of tensions between Canberra and Beijing was "irresponsible words and deeds". | Mr Wang alluded to that earlier this month, saying the "root cause" of tensions between Canberra and Beijing was "irresponsible words and deeds". |
| "In Chinese or Asian culture, the idea of face - mianzi - is particularly important," Ms Hsu says. | "In Chinese or Asian culture, the idea of face - mianzi - is particularly important," Ms Hsu says. |
| "Words matter to Beijing. And clearly, its rhetoric and response… really show that it was offended." | "Words matter to Beijing. And clearly, its rhetoric and response… really show that it was offended." |
| In return Beijing has also toned down its inflammatory language a little, but both sides will have to follow up new rhetoric with action, Ms Hsu says. | In return Beijing has also toned down its inflammatory language a little, but both sides will have to follow up new rhetoric with action, Ms Hsu says. |
| What does each side want? | What does each side want? |
| Mr Wang says Canberra can do several things to repair relations - in essence, it should treat China "as a partner rather than an opponent". | Mr Wang says Canberra can do several things to repair relations - in essence, it should treat China "as a partner rather than an opponent". |
| Some have interpreted his points as demands that Australia stop criticising China, and avoid turning to countries like the US to limit Beijing's influence in places like the Pacific. | Some have interpreted his points as demands that Australia stop criticising China, and avoid turning to countries like the US to limit Beijing's influence in places like the Pacific. |
| China's requests are "unlikely" to have any impact on Australian policy, says Dr Bryce Wakefield, the executive director Australian Institute of International Affairs. | China's requests are "unlikely" to have any impact on Australian policy, says Dr Bryce Wakefield, the executive director Australian Institute of International Affairs. |
| Ms Wong has repeatedly stressed Australia will not make "concessions", saying: "Australia's government has changed but our national interests and our policy settings have not." | Ms Wong has repeatedly stressed Australia will not make "concessions", saying: "Australia's government has changed but our national interests and our policy settings have not." |
| On the other hand, Australia's major sticking point is trade. It has accused Beijing of "economic coercion". | On the other hand, Australia's major sticking point is trade. It has accused Beijing of "economic coercion". |
| "What Australia wants is China to treat it fairly," Dr Wakefield says. | |
| It also wants two Australians separately detained in China freed - journalist Cheng Lei and writer Yang Hengjun. | It also wants two Australians separately detained in China freed - journalist Cheng Lei and writer Yang Hengjun. |
| Spying accusations against Yang Hengjun and Cheng Lei are baseless, their supporters say | Spying accusations against Yang Hengjun and Cheng Lei are baseless, their supporters say |
| It may get some movement on trade, Ms Hsu and Dr Wakefield agree, but other compromises are less likely. | It may get some movement on trade, Ms Hsu and Dr Wakefield agree, but other compromises are less likely. |
| "I can't see China turning around and suddenly allowing the Australian citizens to take their freedom," Dr Wakefield says. | "I can't see China turning around and suddenly allowing the Australian citizens to take their freedom," Dr Wakefield says. |
| Scope for real change unclear | Scope for real change unclear |
| Given both countries want difficult compromises, will anything actually change? | Given both countries want difficult compromises, will anything actually change? |
| "I think China recognises it has backed itself into a corner somewhat," Dr Wakefield says. | "I think China recognises it has backed itself into a corner somewhat," Dr Wakefield says. |
| "[Its] strong rhetoric on Australia hasn't had any effect on Australian foreign policy... and the Australian economy has been fairly well insulated from the effective trade sanctions that China has imposed." | "[Its] strong rhetoric on Australia hasn't had any effect on Australian foreign policy... and the Australian economy has been fairly well insulated from the effective trade sanctions that China has imposed." |
| But if China is trying to send a message to smaller powers like Australia that it isn't to be messed with, Beijing is unlikely to back down, he says. | But if China is trying to send a message to smaller powers like Australia that it isn't to be messed with, Beijing is unlikely to back down, he says. |
| Ms Hsu is more convinced China does need Australia - now especially. | Ms Hsu is more convinced China does need Australia - now especially. |
| "It's not that Australia is particularly powerful in terms of military might… but it is one potential source of energy security for the upcoming winter," she says. | "It's not that Australia is particularly powerful in terms of military might… but it is one potential source of energy security for the upcoming winter," she says. |
| Last year China suffered power shortages that left millions without heating and the government will be looking to avoid the upset that repeat blackouts could bring. | Last year China suffered power shortages that left millions without heating and the government will be looking to avoid the upset that repeat blackouts could bring. |
| With the war in Ukraine restricting energy supply even further, it could turn to Australia - a leading coal exporter. | With the war in Ukraine restricting energy supply even further, it could turn to Australia - a leading coal exporter. |
| China wants to find alternatives to coal but it remains a cheap and convenient option for many there | China wants to find alternatives to coal but it remains a cheap and convenient option for many there |
| China wants to find alternatives to coal but it remains a cheap and convenient option for many there | China wants to find alternatives to coal but it remains a cheap and convenient option for many there |
| But though warmer words have been exchanged, other challenges have intensified. | But though warmer words have been exchanged, other challenges have intensified. |
| Last month, Australia accused a Chinese fighter jet of carrying out a dangerous manoeuvre near one of its aircraft over the South China Sea. | Last month, Australia accused a Chinese fighter jet of carrying out a dangerous manoeuvre near one of its aircraft over the South China Sea. |
| And shortly afterwards, an Australian warship charting a course through the same international waters - which are claimed by China as its territory - was stalked by a nuclear-powered submarine, a warship and multiple aircraft, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported. | And shortly afterwards, an Australian warship charting a course through the same international waters - which are claimed by China as its territory - was stalked by a nuclear-powered submarine, a warship and multiple aircraft, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported. |
| Chinese fighter jet 'chaffs' Australian plane | Chinese fighter jet 'chaffs' Australian plane |
| Canada says China 'buzzing' Asia military flights | Canada says China 'buzzing' Asia military flights |
| The encounters are a warning, says Ms Hsu. | The encounters are a warning, says Ms Hsu. |
| "[Beijing] is wanting to indicate that it is a force, it is a military power… and that there's definitely a limit to their goodwill." | "[Beijing] is wanting to indicate that it is a force, it is a military power… and that there's definitely a limit to their goodwill." |