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| Worst of NI downturn over - bank | Worst of NI downturn over - bank |
| (30 minutes later) | |
| A local bank is claiming that the worst of Northern Ireland's economic downturn is over - but NI's recovery will lag behind that of the rest of the UK. | |
| The Ulster Bank says major obstacles lie ahead and the biggest challenge will be recovering the significant amount of output lost in the recession. | The Ulster Bank says major obstacles lie ahead and the biggest challenge will be recovering the significant amount of output lost in the recession. |
| Its economist, Richard Ramsey, said the worst of the house-building downturn seemed to have passed. | Its economist, Richard Ramsey, said the worst of the house-building downturn seemed to have passed. |
| But he said other factors which had boosted the NI economy had now gone. | But he said other factors which had boosted the NI economy had now gone. |
| Mr Ramsey predicted that Northern Ireland's unemployment rate would rise to 8% by the end of this year, averaging about 9% next year. | Mr Ramsey predicted that Northern Ireland's unemployment rate would rise to 8% by the end of this year, averaging about 9% next year. |
| "The rate of unemployment growth has clearly eased and our view is that around two thirds of the total job losses expected during the recession have already happened," he said. | "The rate of unemployment growth has clearly eased and our view is that around two thirds of the total job losses expected during the recession have already happened," he said. |
| "However, there are significant concerns regarding the labour market in the years ahead, not least the rate of youth unemployment and the level of economic inactivity in Northern Ireland - the latter being higher than in any other part of the UK." | "However, there are significant concerns regarding the labour market in the years ahead, not least the rate of youth unemployment and the level of economic inactivity in Northern Ireland - the latter being higher than in any other part of the UK." |
| Meanwhile, the latest survey of businesses across Ireland shows that more than half of all companies reported a continuing drop in turnover during the recession. | Meanwhile, the latest survey of businesses across Ireland shows that more than half of all companies reported a continuing drop in turnover during the recession. |
| However, the report on the second quarter of this year, by Inter trade Ireland, indicates that the economic decline has bottomed out. | However, the report on the second quarter of this year, by Inter trade Ireland, indicates that the economic decline has bottomed out. |