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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
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| Worst of NI downturn over - bank | Worst of NI downturn over - bank |
| (20 minutes later) | |
| A local bank is claiming that the worst of Northern Ireland's economic downturn is over - but NI's recovery will lag behind that of the rest of the UK. | A local bank is claiming that the worst of Northern Ireland's economic downturn is over - but NI's recovery will lag behind that of the rest of the UK. |
| The Ulster Bank says major obstacles lie ahead and the biggest challenge will be recovering the significant amount of output lost in the recession. | The Ulster Bank says major obstacles lie ahead and the biggest challenge will be recovering the significant amount of output lost in the recession. |
| Its economist, Richard Ramsey, said the worst of the house-building downturn seemed to have passed. | Its economist, Richard Ramsey, said the worst of the house-building downturn seemed to have passed. |
| But he said other factors which had boosted the NI economy had now gone. | But he said other factors which had boosted the NI economy had now gone. |
| Mr Ramsey predicted that Northern Ireland's unemployment rate would rise to 8% by the end of this year, averaging about 9% next year. | Mr Ramsey predicted that Northern Ireland's unemployment rate would rise to 8% by the end of this year, averaging about 9% next year. |
| "The rate of unemployment growth has clearly eased and our view is that around two thirds of the total job losses expected during the recession have already happened," he said. | "The rate of unemployment growth has clearly eased and our view is that around two thirds of the total job losses expected during the recession have already happened," he said. |
| Growth | |
| "However, there are significant concerns regarding the labour market in the years ahead, not least the rate of youth unemployment and the level of economic inactivity in Northern Ireland - the latter being higher than in any other part of the UK." | "However, there are significant concerns regarding the labour market in the years ahead, not least the rate of youth unemployment and the level of economic inactivity in Northern Ireland - the latter being higher than in any other part of the UK." |
| The bank predicts that Northern Ireland's economy will grow by around 1% in 2010, compared to around 1.4% for the UK as a whole. | |
| "Beyond that, it is our view that Northern Ireland's sustainable growth rate will be 2% per annum on average, which we expect to be below the UK average," Mr Ramsey added. | |
| Meanwhile, the latest survey of businesses across Ireland shows that more than half reported a continuing drop in turnover. | |
| However, the report on the second quarter of this year, by InterTradeIreland, indicates that the economic decline has bottomed out. | |
| InterTradeIreland's Director of Strategy Aidan Gough said: "The emerging picture points to a U-shaped recession - the question now is how wide the trough will be? | |
| "Restoring competitiveness is the biggest challenge facing firms and they are currently seeking to reduce costs across the board in order to be able to take advantage of any upswing." | |
| The survey, involving telephone interviews with 1,000 owner/managers north and south, was carried out last month by Millward Brown Ulster and covers the period April to June 2009. | |
| The survey confirmed southern companies are continuing to suffer more than northern firms, reporting a drop in turnover of 72% compared to 44%. | |
| The sectors worst affected are manufacturing, construction and the hospitality industry. |