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Rishi Sunak's five promises: What progress has he made? Rishi Sunak's five promises: What progress has he made?
(5 days later)
On 4 January, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak set out his five priorities for 2023.On 4 January, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak set out his five priorities for 2023.
"I fully expect you to hold my government and I to account on delivering those goals," he said."I fully expect you to hold my government and I to account on delivering those goals," he said.
What progress has been made?What progress has been made?
Halving inflationHalving inflation
The government's top priority is halving inflation - the increase in prices over time - by the end of 2023.The government's top priority is halving inflation - the increase in prices over time - by the end of 2023.
Inflation was at 10.7% in the three-month period between October and December 2022, so the government's stated aim is to reduce inflation to 5.3% or lower in the last three months of 2023.Inflation was at 10.7% in the three-month period between October and December 2022, so the government's stated aim is to reduce inflation to 5.3% or lower in the last three months of 2023.
It uses a measure called the Consumer Prices Index, which tracks the price of a typical basket of goods.It uses a measure called the Consumer Prices Index, which tracks the price of a typical basket of goods.
The monthly inflation figure for the year to October was 4.6%, and it is not expected to rise in November and December, which means it is likely that the pledge will be met. The monthly inflation figure for the year to October was 4.6%, at which point the government said it had met its target early, without having to wait for the final quarter figure.
At the time the prime minister made the pledge, many experts already expected inflation to drop sharply throughout 2023, but there had been some doubts because it did not fall as quickly as anticipated at the beginning of the year. When the prime minister made the pledge back in January, many experts already expected inflation to drop sharply throughout 2023. However, there had been some doubts because it did not fall as quickly as anticipated at the beginning of the year.
When will we know? Inflation figures are published monthly, but the figure for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be released on 17 January 2024. When will we know? The October inflation figure was published on 15 November, and the figure for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be released on 17 January 2024.
Can government claim credit for fall in inflation?Can government claim credit for fall in inflation?
Why inflation is falling but prices are still risingWhy inflation is falling but prices are still rising
How much are prices rising for you? Try our calculatorHow much are prices rising for you? Try our calculator
Growing the economyGrowing the economy
Downing Street said the pledge to "grow the economy" will be met if the economy is bigger in the three-month period of October to December 2023 than it was in the previous quarter (July-September).Downing Street said the pledge to "grow the economy" will be met if the economy is bigger in the three-month period of October to December 2023 than it was in the previous quarter (July-September).
It is using GDP (or Gross Domestic Product), a measure of all the activity of companies, governments and individuals.It is using GDP (or Gross Domestic Product), a measure of all the activity of companies, governments and individuals.
This would not normally be seen as a difficult pledge, because the UK's economy is usually growing. This would not normally be seen as a difficult pledge to meet, because the UK's economy is usually growing.
However, while the economy is now considered to have recovered faster from the pandemic than previously thought, it did not grow at all between July and September. However, while the economy is now considered to have recovered from the pandemic more quickly than previously thought, it did not grow at all between July and September 2023.
The pledge to grow the economy is made more difficult by the government's promise to halve inflation. In November, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which assesses the health of the UK's economy, raised its forecast for growth in 2023 to 0.6%, but cut its forecasts sharply for the following two years.
The pledge to grow the economy has been made more difficult by the government's promise to halve inflation.
The Bank of England put up interest rates 14 times to stop prices rising so quickly.The Bank of England put up interest rates 14 times to stop prices rising so quickly.
However, this also reduces spending, and slows economic growth.However, this also reduces spending, and slows economic growth.
The Bank is expecting the economy to see zero growth until 2025, although it thinks the UK will avoid a recession.
When will we know? GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be published on 13 February 2024.When will we know? GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be published on 13 February 2024.
Debt fallingDebt falling
When governments talk about debt falling, they almost always mean as a proportion of GDP.When governments talk about debt falling, they almost always mean as a proportion of GDP.
The idea is that debt is falling if it is growing more slowly than the economy.The idea is that debt is falling if it is growing more slowly than the economy.
It had been thought that debt rose above 100% of GDP earlier this year. However, as GDP has since been revised upwards, that is no longer the case.It had been thought that debt rose above 100% of GDP earlier this year. However, as GDP has since been revised upwards, that is no longer the case.
But levels of UK government debt are still high by historical standards.But levels of UK government debt are still high by historical standards.
In the Budget in March, the government claimed to be on track to meet its pledge on debt. That's because the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - which checks the health of the economy - forecast that debt as a proportion of GDP would fall in 2027-28. In the Autumn Statement in November, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt claimed to be on track to meet the government's debt pledge.
But the OBR also issued some stark warnings about the sustainability of UK debt. That's because the OBR has said it expects that debt as a proportion of GDP would fall in 2027-28 and 2028-29.
When will we know? The next debt forecasts will be published alongside the 2023 Autumn Statement. But it's going to be tight. The OBR warned that if the government decides not to increase fuel duty in line with inflation in the next Budget - a decision taken by all chancellors since 2011 - then debt would no longer be expected to fall in 2027-28.
When will we know? The next debt forecasts will be published alongside the Spring Budget in 2024.
Warning public debt could soar as population agesWarning public debt could soar as population ages
How does government borrowing work?How does government borrowing work?
Cutting NHS waiting listsCutting NHS waiting lists
Mr Sunak said: "NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly."Mr Sunak said: "NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly."
His pledge only refers to waiting lists in England, because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland manage their own health systems.His pledge only refers to waiting lists in England, because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland manage their own health systems.
However, the overall number of patients waiting for treatment in England was 7.77 million people in September, slightly higher than in the previous month.However, the overall number of patients waiting for treatment in England was 7.77 million people in September, slightly higher than in the previous month.
On a visit to a hospital in September, Mr Sunak conceded that his target of reducing the waiting list was in doubt, saying it was "very hard". He said it would have been met without ongoing NHS industrial action.On a visit to a hospital in September, Mr Sunak conceded that his target of reducing the waiting list was in doubt, saying it was "very hard". He said it would have been met without ongoing NHS industrial action.
But research by the Health Foundation think tank suggested that industrial action by consultants and junior doctors had lengthened the waiting list by around 210,000, which is 3% of the list.But research by the Health Foundation think tank suggested that industrial action by consultants and junior doctors had lengthened the waiting list by around 210,000, which is 3% of the list.
The NHS target is to see people within 18 weeks for non-urgent consultant-led treatment.The NHS target is to see people within 18 weeks for non-urgent consultant-led treatment.
When we asked Downing Street when the prime minister aimed to have waiting lists falling, we were pointed towards the plan for tackling the backlog of elective care (care planned in advance). This said the overall waiting list was expected to be falling by about March 2024.When we asked Downing Street when the prime minister aimed to have waiting lists falling, we were pointed towards the plan for tackling the backlog of elective care (care planned in advance). This said the overall waiting list was expected to be falling by about March 2024.
When will we know?: Waiting list figures are usually published on the second Thursday of each month for the last month but one - so September's figures came out in November.When will we know?: Waiting list figures are usually published on the second Thursday of each month for the last month but one - so September's figures came out in November.
Stopping small boatsStopping small boats
The final priority was to "stop the boats" which bring people across the English Channel, after 45,755 migrants crossed over from France that way in 2022.The final priority was to "stop the boats" which bring people across the English Channel, after 45,755 migrants crossed over from France that way in 2022.
The prime minister proposed to do this through new legislation. The government finally passed its Illegal Migration Bill on 17 July, giving the home secretary a legal duty to detain and remove anyone entering the UK illegally.The prime minister proposed to do this through new legislation. The government finally passed its Illegal Migration Bill on 17 July, giving the home secretary a legal duty to detain and remove anyone entering the UK illegally.
Mr Sunak has said that his plan to tackle small boat crossings is "starting to work".Mr Sunak has said that his plan to tackle small boat crossings is "starting to work".
As at 13 November, 27,284 people had been detected crossing the English Channel in 2023, according to the Home Office, which is down a third from the same date in 2022.As at 13 November, 27,284 people had been detected crossing the English Channel in 2023, according to the Home Office, which is down a third from the same date in 2022.
However, it is not possible to say if the drop is entirely the result of government migration policies. In October, Labour said the extremely wet summer was partly responsible.However, it is not possible to say if the drop is entirely the result of government migration policies. In October, Labour said the extremely wet summer was partly responsible.
When will we know? Figures on arrivals in small boats are collected daily.When will we know? Figures on arrivals in small boats are collected daily.
How many people cross the Channel in small boats?How many people cross the Channel in small boats?
Rishi Sunak's claims on small boats fact checkedRishi Sunak's claims on small boats fact checked
What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?
Related TopicsRelated Topics
InflationInflation
GDPGDP
Rishi SunakRishi Sunak
Economic growthEconomic growth
BBC VerifyBBC Verify
NHSNHS
MigrationMigration