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Rishi Sunak's five promises: What progress has he made? Rishi Sunak's five promises: What progress has he made?
(1 day later)
On 4 January 2023, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak set out his five priorities.On 4 January 2023, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak set out his five priorities.
"I fully expect you to hold my government and I to account on delivering those goals," he said."I fully expect you to hold my government and I to account on delivering those goals," he said.
What progress has he made?What progress has he made?
Rishi Sunak: Key pledge targets missed so farRishi Sunak: Key pledge targets missed so far
Halving inflationHalving inflation
The government's top priority was halving inflation - the increase in prices over time - by the end of 2023.The government's top priority was halving inflation - the increase in prices over time - by the end of 2023.
Inflation was at 10.7% in the three-month period between October and December 2022, so the aim was to reduce inflation to 5.3% or lower in the last three months of 2023.Inflation was at 10.7% in the three-month period between October and December 2022, so the aim was to reduce inflation to 5.3% or lower in the last three months of 2023.
The government is using a measure called the Consumer Prices Index, which tracks the price of a typical basket of goods.The government is using a measure called the Consumer Prices Index, which tracks the price of a typical basket of goods.
The CPI for the last three months of 2023 was 4.2%, comfortably below half the rate it was the year before - so the government has met this pledge.The CPI for the last three months of 2023 was 4.2%, comfortably below half the rate it was the year before - so the government has met this pledge.
Can government claim credit for fall in inflation?Can government claim credit for fall in inflation?
What a falling inflation rate means for your financesWhat a falling inflation rate means for your finances
Growing the economyGrowing the economy
Downing Street said its pledge to "grow the economy" would be met if the economy was bigger in the three-month period of October to December 2023 than it was in the previous quarter (July-September). The government has never publicly said what measure should be used to assess if it had met the prime minister's pledge to "grow the economy", despite repeated requests.
It is using GDP (or Gross Domestic Product), a measure of all the activity of companies, governments and individuals. In some private briefings to journalists, sources said it would be if the economy was bigger in the three-month period of October to December 2023 than in the previous quarter (July-September).
This would not normally be seen as a difficult pledge to meet, because the UK's economy is usually growing. That was not achieved - latest figures show the economy shrank 0.3% in the last three months of the year, sending it into recession.
But the latest monthly figures for November show that there has been very little growth in 2023. Overall the economy grew by only 0.1% in the whole of 2023.
The quarterly figures showed the economy grew 0.3% in the first three months of 2023, had zero growth in the next three months and shrank 0.1% between July and September. Growth in the economy is measured using GDP (or Gross Domestic Product), a measure of all the activity of companies, governments and individuals.
And, in November, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which assesses the health of the UK's economy, cut its growth forecasts to 0.7% in 2024 and 1.4% in 2025. UK economy fell into recession at the end of 2023
The pledge to grow the economy has been made more difficult by the government's promise to halve inflation. What is a recession and how could it affect me?
The pledge to grow the economy was made more difficult by the government's promise to halve inflation.
The Bank of England put up interest rates 14 times to stop prices rising so quickly.The Bank of England put up interest rates 14 times to stop prices rising so quickly.
However, this also reduces spending, and slows economic growth. However, this also reduced spending, and slowed economic growth.
When will we know? GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 will be published on 15 February 2024.
Reducing debtReducing debt
When governments talk about reducing debt, they almost always mean as a proportion of GDP.When governments talk about reducing debt, they almost always mean as a proportion of GDP.
The idea is that debt is coming down if it is growing more slowly than the economy.The idea is that debt is coming down if it is growing more slowly than the economy.
In December, the statistics regulator criticised the prime minister for saying debt was falling when it was actually rising, as BBC Verify also pointed out.In December, the statistics regulator criticised the prime minister for saying debt was falling when it was actually rising, as BBC Verify also pointed out.
The latest figures for December showed that government debt stood at 97.7% of the size of the economy.The latest figures for December showed that government debt stood at 97.7% of the size of the economy.
That was 1.9 percentage points higher than December 2022 and, as the Office for National Statistics pointed out, "remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s".That was 1.9 percentage points higher than December 2022 and, as the Office for National Statistics pointed out, "remains at levels last seen in the early 1960s".
But the government pledge wasn't about how much debt is now - it was that debt would be forecast to come down in five years (2028-29).But the government pledge wasn't about how much debt is now - it was that debt would be forecast to come down in five years (2028-29).
In the Autumn Statement in November, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt claimed to be on track to meet that pledge because the OBR predicted a fall in 2028-29.In the Autumn Statement in November, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt claimed to be on track to meet that pledge because the OBR predicted a fall in 2028-29.
But it's going to be tight and will involve challenging spending restraint for some government departments.But it's going to be tight and will involve challenging spending restraint for some government departments.
When will we know? The next debt forecasts will be published alongside the Spring Budget in 2024.When will we know? The next debt forecasts will be published alongside the Spring Budget in 2024.
Fact-checking Treasury minister's claim on debtFact-checking Treasury minister's claim on debt
Warning public debt could soar as population agesWarning public debt could soar as population ages
How does government borrowing work?How does government borrowing work?
Cutting NHS waiting listsCutting NHS waiting lists
Mr Sunak said: "NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly."Mr Sunak said: "NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly."
His pledge only refers to waiting lists in England, because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland manage their own health systems.His pledge only refers to waiting lists in England, because Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland manage their own health systems.
The overall number of waits for non-emergency treatment in England was 7.6 million in December. This was the fourth monthly fall in a row and about 140,000 down from August, but about 600,000 higher than it was in December 2022.The overall number of waits for non-emergency treatment in England was 7.6 million in December. This was the fourth monthly fall in a row and about 140,000 down from August, but about 600,000 higher than it was in December 2022.
The prime minister was asked in an interview on TalkTV on 5 February 2024 whether his government had failed to achieve his pledge, Mr Sunak said: "Yes, we have."The prime minister was asked in an interview on TalkTV on 5 February 2024 whether his government had failed to achieve his pledge, Mr Sunak said: "Yes, we have."
He highlighted the level of NHS spending and said: "All these things mean the NHS is doing more than it ever has but industrial action has had an impact."He highlighted the level of NHS spending and said: "All these things mean the NHS is doing more than it ever has but industrial action has had an impact."
Research by the Health Foundation think tank suggested that industrial action by consultants and junior doctors had lengthened the waiting list by around 210,000.Research by the Health Foundation think tank suggested that industrial action by consultants and junior doctors had lengthened the waiting list by around 210,000.
When we asked Downing Street when the prime minister aimed to have waiting lists falling, we were pointed towards the plan for tackling the backlog of elective care (care planned in advance). This said the overall waiting list was expected to be falling by about March 2024.When we asked Downing Street when the prime minister aimed to have waiting lists falling, we were pointed towards the plan for tackling the backlog of elective care (care planned in advance). This said the overall waiting list was expected to be falling by about March 2024.
When will we know?: March's figures should be out in May.When will we know?: March's figures should be out in May.
Stopping small boatsStopping small boats
The final priority was to "stop the boats" which bring people across the English Channel, after 45,755 migrants crossed over from France that way in 2022.The final priority was to "stop the boats" which bring people across the English Channel, after 45,755 migrants crossed over from France that way in 2022.
The prime minister proposed to do this through new legislation. The government finally passed its Illegal Migration Bill on 17 July, giving the home secretary a legal duty to detain and remove anyone entering the UK illegally.The prime minister proposed to do this through new legislation. The government finally passed its Illegal Migration Bill on 17 July, giving the home secretary a legal duty to detain and remove anyone entering the UK illegally.
The plan included sending some asylum seekers to Rwanda but this was blocked by the Supreme Court.The plan included sending some asylum seekers to Rwanda but this was blocked by the Supreme Court.
In response, the government signed a new treaty with Rwanda and proposed new UK laws declaring that Rwanda is a safe country. The new legislation passed through the House of Commons and moved to the House of Lords at the end of January 2024.In response, the government signed a new treaty with Rwanda and proposed new UK laws declaring that Rwanda is a safe country. The new legislation passed through the House of Commons and moved to the House of Lords at the end of January 2024.
Rwanda Bill criticised by peers at first stage in House of LordsRwanda Bill criticised by peers at first stage in House of Lords
Rwanda plan is fundamentally flawed, parliamentary report warnsRwanda plan is fundamentally flawed, parliamentary report warns
Mr Sunak has said that his plan to tackle small boat crossings is "starting to work".Mr Sunak has said that his plan to tackle small boat crossings is "starting to work".
In the whole of 2023, 29,437 people were detected crossing the English Channel, according to the Home Office, which is down more than a third from the previous year.In the whole of 2023, 29,437 people were detected crossing the English Channel, according to the Home Office, which is down more than a third from the previous year.
In 2024, 1506 people had been detected crossing by 10 February, which was down about a quarter from the same period last year.In 2024, 1506 people had been detected crossing by 10 February, which was down about a quarter from the same period last year.
When will we know? Figures on arrivals in small boats are collected daily.When will we know? Figures on arrivals in small boats are collected daily.
Data casts doubt on government's small boats claimData casts doubt on government's small boats claim
How many people cross the Channel in small boats?How many people cross the Channel in small boats?
Why record numbers are suddenly being given asylumWhy record numbers are suddenly being given asylum
What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?What do you want BBC Verify to investigate?
Related TopicsRelated Topics
InflationInflation
GDPGDP
Rishi SunakRishi Sunak
Economic growthEconomic growth
BBC VerifyBBC Verify
NHSNHS
MigrationMigration