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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| UK 'expected to exit recession' | |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| Figures due on Friday at 0930 BST are expected to show that the UK economy grew between July and September, meaning the recession is over. | Figures due on Friday at 0930 BST are expected to show that the UK economy grew between July and September, meaning the recession is over. |
| The figure for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is likely to show the first economic growth since early 2008. | The figure for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is likely to show the first economic growth since early 2008. |
| Yet, some analysts have said the result will be close, and that the economy may have continued to contract. | Yet, some analysts have said the result will be close, and that the economy may have continued to contract. |
| GDP measures the total amount of goods and services produced by a country. | GDP measures the total amount of goods and services produced by a country. |
| The UK economy has been contracting for at least the last five quarters, from the beginning of April 2008 until the end of June 2009. | The UK economy has been contracting for at least the last five quarters, from the beginning of April 2008 until the end of June 2009. |
| 'Not strong enough' | 'Not strong enough' |
| The widely-accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction, so any figure showing zero growth or above will mean that the recession has ended. | The widely-accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction, so any figure showing zero growth or above will mean that the recession has ended. |
| UK IN RECESSION Figures released on Friday will show whether the current UK recession - the deepest since records began - has ended. | UK IN RECESSION Figures released on Friday will show whether the current UK recession - the deepest since records began - has ended. |
| BBC News is spending the day looking at the state of the of the economy across the UK and the prospects for recovery. Q&A: What is GDP? Special report: UK economy | BBC News is spending the day looking at the state of the of the economy across the UK and the prospects for recovery. Q&A: What is GDP? Special report: UK economy |
| BBC chief economics correspondent Hugh Pym said most City economists believe growth resumed in the third quarter of this year - although by as little as 0.2% | |
| Our correspondent added that while there are signs of recovery in the economy, many households and businesses will not notice much of a difference, with unemployment expected to rise for some time to come. | |
| Influential forecaster the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has predicted 0% growth with accuracy of 0.2% either way. | Influential forecaster the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has predicted 0% growth with accuracy of 0.2% either way. |
| The British Chambers of Commerce said that business confidence was improving but that, "the improvement is not sufficiently strong to allow us to conclude without doubt that GDP has already returned to positive growth". | The British Chambers of Commerce said that business confidence was improving but that, "the improvement is not sufficiently strong to allow us to conclude without doubt that GDP has already returned to positive growth". |
| Quarterly growth would also reduce the annual rate of decline. In the three months from April to June the year-on-year decline was 5.5%, which was the sharpest annual contraction since quarterly records began in 1955. | Quarterly growth would also reduce the annual rate of decline. In the three months from April to June the year-on-year decline was 5.5%, which was the sharpest annual contraction since quarterly records began in 1955. |
| 'Touch and go' | 'Touch and go' |
| If there is to be growth, it is likely to come from the service sector, where survey evidence has suggested that conditions have been improving. | If there is to be growth, it is likely to come from the service sector, where survey evidence has suggested that conditions have been improving. |
| But Thursday's retail sales figures, which showed that there was no growth in High Street activity in September, will have been a blow for those looking for significant growth. | But Thursday's retail sales figures, which showed that there was no growth in High Street activity in September, will have been a blow for those looking for significant growth. |
| Also, industrial production figures showed a 2.5% fall in industrial output in August, which will weigh on the overall GDP figure. | Also, industrial production figures showed a 2.5% fall in industrial output in August, which will weigh on the overall GDP figure. |
| "We were fairly confident that the economy would have shown positive growth during the third quarter," said Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec. | "We were fairly confident that the economy would have shown positive growth during the third quarter," said Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec. |
| "We still think that's the case, but it could be touch and go due to the industrial production in August." | "We still think that's the case, but it could be touch and go due to the industrial production in August." |
| Friday's GDP figure from the ONS will be its first estimate for the July to September quarter, and it will have two opportunities to revise the data. | Friday's GDP figure from the ONS will be its first estimate for the July to September quarter, and it will have two opportunities to revise the data. |