This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It will not be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/1/hi/business/8320373.stm

The article has changed 5 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 3 Version 4
UK expected to exit its recession UK expected to exit its recession
(39 minutes later)
Many analysts expect latest figures for UK gross domestic product (GDP) due on Friday will show the economy grew between July and September. Figures due later on Friday are expected to show that the UK economy grew slightly from July to September, meaning the recession is over.
If there is positive growth in the third quarter, it will mean the economy is out of recession. The figure for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is likely to show the first economic growth since early 2008.
But some analysts have said the result will be close - perhaps between zero and 0.2% growth - and that the economy may even have continued to contract. But analysts have said the result will be close and that the economy may even have continued to contract.
GDP measures the total amount of goods and services produced by a country.GDP measures the total amount of goods and services produced by a country.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is set to release GDP figures for the third quarter of 2009 at 0930 BST. The figure at 0930 BST is expected to show growth of between zero and 0.2%.
The UK economy has been contracting for at least the last five quarters, from the beginning of April 2008 until the end of June 2009.The UK economy has been contracting for at least the last five quarters, from the beginning of April 2008 until the end of June 2009.
Rising unemploymentRising unemployment
The widely-accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction, so any figure showing zero growth or above will mean that the recession has ended.The widely-accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction, so any figure showing zero growth or above will mean that the recession has ended.
UK IN RECESSION Figures released on Friday will show whether the current UK recession - the deepest since records began - has ended.UK IN RECESSION Figures released on Friday will show whether the current UK recession - the deepest since records began - has ended.
BBC News is spending the day looking at the state of the of the economy across the UK and the prospects for recovery. Q&A: What is GDP? Special report: UK economyBBC News is spending the day looking at the state of the of the economy across the UK and the prospects for recovery. Q&A: What is GDP? Special report: UK economy
BBC chief economics correspondent Hugh Pym says most City economists believe growth resumed in the third quarter of this year - although by as little as 0.2%BBC chief economics correspondent Hugh Pym says most City economists believe growth resumed in the third quarter of this year - although by as little as 0.2%
He added that while there were signs of recovery in the economy, many households and businesses would not notice much of a difference, with unemployment expected to rise for some time to come.He added that while there were signs of recovery in the economy, many households and businesses would not notice much of a difference, with unemployment expected to rise for some time to come.
The GDP figure is particularly important because it may determine whether the Bank of England decides to extend its programme of quantitative easing, according to Bronwyn Curtis, head of global research at HSBC.The GDP figure is particularly important because it may determine whether the Bank of England decides to extend its programme of quantitative easing, according to Bronwyn Curtis, head of global research at HSBC.
Quantitative easing is the central bank's policy of printing money and using it to buy bonds from banks and other companies to help stimulate the economy.Quantitative easing is the central bank's policy of printing money and using it to buy bonds from banks and other companies to help stimulate the economy.
"Back in August we had a worse-than-expected second-quarter GDP number and that is the reason that the Bank of England extended the quantitative easing programme," Ms Curtis told the BBC."Back in August we had a worse-than-expected second-quarter GDP number and that is the reason that the Bank of England extended the quantitative easing programme," Ms Curtis told the BBC.
The £175bn already announced for the quantitative easing programme will have been spent by next month, so the strength of the third quarter GDP number will be important in deciding whether to extend it.The £175bn already announced for the quantitative easing programme will have been spent by next month, so the strength of the third quarter GDP number will be important in deciding whether to extend it.
'Touch and go''Touch and go'
Influential forecaster the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has predicted 0% growth with accuracy of 0.2% either way.Influential forecaster the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has predicted 0% growth with accuracy of 0.2% either way.
The British Chambers of Commerce said that business confidence was improving but that, "the improvement is not sufficiently strong to allow us to conclude without doubt that GDP has already returned to positive growth".The British Chambers of Commerce said that business confidence was improving but that, "the improvement is not sufficiently strong to allow us to conclude without doubt that GDP has already returned to positive growth".
Quarterly growth would also reduce the annual rate of decline. In the three months from April to June the year-on-year decline was 5.5%, which was the sharpest annual contraction since quarterly records began in 1955.Quarterly growth would also reduce the annual rate of decline. In the three months from April to June the year-on-year decline was 5.5%, which was the sharpest annual contraction since quarterly records began in 1955.
If there is to be growth, it is likely to come from the service sector, where survey evidence has suggested that conditions have been improving.If there is to be growth, it is likely to come from the service sector, where survey evidence has suggested that conditions have been improving.
But Thursday's retail sales figures, which showed that there was no growth in High Street activity in September, were worse than analysts had been expecting.But Thursday's retail sales figures, which showed that there was no growth in High Street activity in September, were worse than analysts had been expecting.
Also, industrial production figures showed a 2.5% fall in industrial output in August, which will weigh on the overall GDP figure.Also, industrial production figures showed a 2.5% fall in industrial output in August, which will weigh on the overall GDP figure.
"We were fairly confident that the economy would have shown positive growth during the third quarter," said Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec."We were fairly confident that the economy would have shown positive growth during the third quarter," said Philip Shaw, an economist at Investec.
"We still think that's the case, but it could be touch and go due to the industrial production in August.""We still think that's the case, but it could be touch and go due to the industrial production in August."
Friday's GDP figure from the ONS will be its first estimate for the July to September quarter, and it will have two opportunities to revise the data.Friday's GDP figure from the ONS will be its first estimate for the July to September quarter, and it will have two opportunities to revise the data.