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Moldova heads to the polls in tense vote that could steer country closer to EU or Russia Moldova heads to polls in pivotal vote that could steer it closer to EU or Russia
(about 7 hours later)
President Maia Sandu says parliamentary vote is Moldova’s ‘most consequential election’ and warns against falling deeper into Moscow’s orbit President tells voters ‘our dear home is in danger’, as her pro-west party tries to hold on to parliamentary majority
Moldovans began voting on Sunday in parliamentary elections that could see the country neighbouring Ukraine swerve from its pro-European path towards Moscow, with the government and the EU accusing Russia of “deeply interfering”. Moldovans have begun voting in a pivotal parliamentary election that will decide whether the country of 2.4 million stays on its path towards EU membership or drifts back into Moscow’s orbit, amid widespread reports of Russian meddling.
Moldova, an EU candidate country, has long been divided over closer ties with Brussels or maintaining Soviet-era relations with Moscow. The president, Maia Sandu, and her pro-western Action and Solidarity party (PAS), face a stiff challenge in Sunday’s election from an alliance of Soviet-nostalgic, pro-Russian parties led in part by the former president Igor Dodon, whom Sandu defeated in 2020.
Most polls show the pro-EU Action and Solidarity party (PAS), in power since 2021, in the lead in the vote. But analysts say the race is far from certain. Polls suggest PAS is likely to remain the largest party but could lose its parliamentary majority, potentially limiting Sandu’s efforts to push through changes required for EU accession.
Polling booths opened at 7am (0400 GMT) and will close at 9pm, with the results expected later on Sunday. Polling stations in the impoverished country, wedged between Ukraine and Romania, opened at 7am (5am BST) and will close at 9pm, with results expected late on Sunday.
The pro-EU president, Maia Sandu, of PAS has called the vote Moldova’s “most consequential election” and warned against falling deeper into Moscow’s orbit. The outcome will be closely watched in Brussels and other European capitals, where fears are high that Moscow could gain a foothold in a strategically vital region as it intensifies its hybrid war across the continent.
“Its outcome will decide whether we consolidate our democracy and join the EU, or whether Russia drags us back into a grey zone, making us a regional risk,” Sandu wrote on X on Friday. Casting her ballot in Chișinău, Sandu warned voters of the stakes. “Moldova, our dear home, is in danger, and it needs the help of each one of you. You can save it today with your vote. Tomorrow may be too late,” she said. “The fate of our country must be decided by your vote, not by bought votes.”
The EU has said that Moldova is facing “an unprecedented campaign of disinformation” from Russia, while the prime minister, Dorin Recean, warned of a “siege on our country”. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has oscillated between building closer ties with Brussels and clinging to Soviet-era relations with Moscow.
Moscow has denied Chisinau’s allegations that it is waging an online disinformation campaign and that it is looking to buy votes and stir unrest. Sandu, a former World Bank official elected in 2020 on a wave of anti-corruption sentiment, has staked her presidency on a pro-European course. Her government oversaw a referendum last October in which Moldovans narrowly voted to enshrine EU membership as a constitutional goal. On the same day, Sandu was re-elected as president for a four-year term.
Moldova’s largely pro-Russian opposition, in turn, has accused PAS of planning fraud. In Moldova, power is shared between the directly elected president and a prime minister appointed by parliament.
Voters in the country of 2.4 million – one of Europe’s poorest – have expressed frustration over economic hardship, as well as scepticism over the push to gain EU membership, launched after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This year’s parliamentary campaign was overshadowed by mounting allegations of Russian interference.
A loss for PAS – which gained a majority in the last parliamentary elections – could throw up hurdles in the push towards EU integration. Moldovan authorities accuse Moscow of funnelling billions of dollars into pro-Russian parties, vote-buying schemes and propaganda campaigns aimed at stoking anti-western sentiment.
At a PAS rally through the capital on Friday, people shouted “We want to be in Europe” and “My country is not for sale”. A Reuters investigation revealed on Wednesday how Moscow has recruited and paid dozens of priests in the deeply religious country to urge congregations to vote against PAS.
In the lead-up to the vote, prosecutors carried out hundreds of searches related to what the government says are “electoral corruption” and “destabilisation attempts”, and have made dozens of arrests. Two pro-Russian parties were barred from the race on Friday over financing irregularities, a move that angered the opposition and drew sharp criticism from Moscow.
On Friday, the electoral commission excluded two pro-Russian parties from the race over financing irregularities. The opposition has slammed the decisions. Moscow has denied interfering in Moldova’s affairs, but it continues to shelter the fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, who is under US and EU sanctions and is widely believed to be orchestrating campaigns aimed at destabilising the country.
The government has accused the Kremlin of spending hundreds of millions of euros in “dirty money” to interfere in the campaign. “It’s a small country, but the consequences are disproportionately big for Europe,” said a western diplomat in Moldova.
“It’s the biggest effort, and these are the most important elections since the Republic of Moldova became independent” in 1991, Recean told AFP at the PAS rally on Friday. “If Moldova turns back to Russia, it will be a massive headache for European security,” the diplomat added.
Foreign interference and threats of stirring up unrest are “the most significant risks”, according to Igor Botan, the head of Moldovan thinktank Adept. A western intelligence official told the Guardian that Moscow had made Moldova its “key foreign policy priority after Ukraine” in recent months, noting that the Kremlin reshuffled the team handling Moldova earlier this year to pursue a more aggressive strategy.
“We didn’t have such phenomena before in our electoral campaigns,” he said. Sandu’s main vulnerability is the economy. Inflation remains stubbornly high, emigration continues, and GDP growth has been modest.
Turnout will be decisive – especially in the large and powerful diaspora, which tends to vote PAS, and in the breakaway region of Transnistria, which leans pro-Russian, analysts say. Her supporters argue the problems stem largely from external shocks: Russia’s war in Ukraine plunged the country into turmoil, cutting off key trade routes, triggering an energy crisis and forcing Moldova to absorb tens of thousands of refugees.
Approximately 20 political parties and independent candidates are running for the 101 parliamentary seats. Sandu will be counting on Moldova’s diaspora, which has traditionally backed PAS, as well as younger urban voters to turn out in large numbers.
The former president Igor Dodon of the Socialists, one of the leaders of the pro-Russian opposition, said he was “convinced the opposition will have a majority”. But her party remains far less popular in regions with strong pro-Russian leanings: Transnistria, where Moscow still stations around 1,500 troops after a brief separatist war in the 1990s, and Gagauzia, a semi-autonomous area where pro-Russian sentiment runs deep.
On foreign policy, he said he would “continue discussions, negotiations with the EU, but we will also re-establish relations with the Russian Federation”.
“Moldova is ruled at the moment by a dictatorial regime, which under the EU cover violates democratic norms,” he said, in turn accusing “the west” of interference and PAS of trying to steal the vote.
Botan said the result is “very difficult to predict”.
“Post-election negotiations to form an alliance [to govern] are highly likely, and here too, things are unclear,” he said.