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Iraq defeat 'possible' without UK Iraq violence 'was unprecedented'
(about 6 hours later)
The invasion of Iraq could have "failed" without the involvement of British troops, a senior military commander has told the Chilcot inquiry. Britain may have had "second thoughts" about the Iraq invasion had the scale of post-war violence been anticipated, the Iraq inquiry has heard.
Lt General Sir Robert Fry, deputy chief of the defence staff in the run-up to the war, said the UK's role in the March 2003 invasion was crucial. Sir John Sawers, now head of MI6, said "very few observers" foresaw that Iraq would attract al-Qaeda terrorists and Shia extremists backed by Iran.
Several witnesses have told the inquiry that US officials told UK counterparts they could have gone it alone in Iraq. Only Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak got it right when he warned it would unleash "100 Bin Ladens".
The inquiry is examining UK policy towards Iraq between 2001 and 2009.The inquiry is examining UK policy towards Iraq between 2001 and 2009.
'Potential for failure' Sir John, the UK's special envoy to Iraq from May to July 2003, told the Iraq inquiry: "It was unprecedented, the scale of violence that we faced in Iraq. The mindset of our American colleagues was Germany 1945.
In its first month, the inquiry has heard from senior civil servants, diplomats and military commanders about the origins of the invasion, Iraq's military threat and post-war contingency planning. I think frankly had we known the scale of violence, it might well have led to second thoughts about the entire project Sir John Sawers
"We all have an image of that, a sullen population defeated but no sustained violence against the victorious forces.
"Very few observers actually highlighted the scale of the violence that we could face. I think about the only person in my recollection who got it right was President Mubarak who warned of unleashing 100 Bin Ladens."
He said a "gradually more potent insurgency" by undefeated elements of the Baathist regime combined with international terrorists using Iraq as a way of "having a go at the Americans" and Iran-backed "Shia extremists" had created an "onslaught of violence that was not thought through by any observer".
Sir John said: "I think frankly had we known the scale of violence, it might well have led to second thoughts about the entire project and we could certainly have mitigated some aspects of it had we had a clearer appreciation of it in advance."
'Unprecedented'
But he said it was not "reasonable" to assume the violence should have been predicted as it was an "unprecedented scenario".
Earlier Lt Gen Sir Robert Fry, deputy chief of the defence staff in the run-up to the war, said the UK's role in the March 2003 invasion was crucial.
INQUIRY TIMELINE November-December: Former top civil servants, spy chiefs, diplomats and military commanders to give evidenceJanuary-February 2010: Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and other politicians expected to appear before the panel March 2010: Inquiry expected to adjourn ahead of the general election campaignJuly-August 2010: Inquiry expected to resumeReport set to be published in late 2010 or early 2011 Iraq inquiry: Day-by-day timeline Q&A: Iraq war inquiry
Asked what the UK stood to lose if it did not contribute troops to the Iraq invasion once planning was advanced, Sir Robert said "maybe the war".Asked what the UK stood to lose if it did not contribute troops to the Iraq invasion once planning was advanced, Sir Robert said "maybe the war".
Sir Roderic Lyne, one of the five members of the inquiry panel, remarked that the commander was the first witness to suggest that the UK's contribution was "critical" to winning the war.Sir Roderic Lyne, one of the five members of the inquiry panel, remarked that the commander was the first witness to suggest that the UK's contribution was "critical" to winning the war.
The US scheme of manoeuvre had the potential of failure within it Lt Gen Sir Robert Fry Gen Fry replied: "Let me put it a different way. The US scheme of manoeuvre had the potential of failure within it."
Lt General Fry replied: "Let me put it a different way. The US scheme of manoeuvre had the potential of failure within it."
He said coalition forces did not know at the time how poorly resourced the Iraqi army was or whether Saddam Hussein would use chemical or biological weapons on the battlefield.
Other witnesses have suggested that the UK could have sent fewer troops to Iraq and only chose to send the maximum number to bolster its relationship with Washington.Other witnesses have suggested that the UK could have sent fewer troops to Iraq and only chose to send the maximum number to bolster its relationship with Washington.
Sir Robert, who became the UK's chief military representative in Iraq in 2006, also criticised UK preparations for the post-war task of stabilisation, reconstruction and civil administration. 'No consensus'
Sir Robert, who became the UK's chief military representative in Iraq in 2006, also criticised UK preparations for the post-war reconstruction of Iraq.
He said divisions in government, Cabinet and public opinion over the legitimacy of the war inhibited planning efforts, saying there had been a "breakdown of the consensus over the use of force".He said divisions in government, Cabinet and public opinion over the legitimacy of the war inhibited planning efforts, saying there had been a "breakdown of the consensus over the use of force".
Sir Robert criticised the role of the Department for International Development (DFiD) in post-war planning, saying some of its officials "could barely conceal their moral disdain" for the military action. Sir Robert criticised the role of the Department for International Development (DFiD), saying some of its officials "could barely conceal their moral disdain" for the military action.
National security
Admiral Lord Boyce, chief of the defence staff at the time, has already criticised DFiD's involvement - claiming some of its officials were told to "stay in their tents" in Iraq and not help reconstruction efforts.Admiral Lord Boyce, chief of the defence staff at the time, has already criticised DFiD's involvement - claiming some of its officials were told to "stay in their tents" in Iraq and not help reconstruction efforts.
Clare Short, Secretary of State for International Development at the time, resigned in May 2003, saying the US and UK had failed to fulfil commitments to get a UN mandate for post-war administration. Clare Short resigned as Secretary of State for International Development in May 2003, saying the US and UK had failed to fulfil commitments to get a UN mandate for post-war administration.
Gen Fry also said finding weapons of mass destruction would have provided "an immediate sense of vindication" for the invasion.
"I felt that I had embarked upon a war for one imperative and all of a sudden I had an entirely different imperative - to stick Iraq back together again," he said.
Senior politicians, including Tony Blair, are to appear before the inquiry next year, with its report due to be published in late 2010 or early 2011.Senior politicians, including Tony Blair, are to appear before the inquiry next year, with its report due to be published in late 2010 or early 2011.
The broadcast of Tuesday's hearing was cut off for more than a minute by its chairman on national security grounds, the first time this has happened during the inquiry.
Sir John Chilcot said he had interrupted the TV coverage - when top diplomat Sir Jeremy Greenstock was discussing his relationship with US officials in post-war Iraq, as "sensitive information" was being discussed.
The move was criticised by the Liberal Democrats, which have called for complete transparency in the proceedings.