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| IMF issues downbeat US economic forecast - US politics live | IMF issues downbeat US economic forecast - US politics live |
| (40 minutes later) | |
| 12.37pm: Republican governors blocking the Medicaid expansion planned under the Affordable Care Act is worrying hospitals who have to deal with the consequences of treating the uninsured, writes the Huffington Post's Jeffrey Young: | |
| Getting the Medicaid expansion in place has already become the "number one priority" for the Texas Hospital Association, said John Hawkins, the senior vice president for advocacy and public policy at the organization. "It's the kind of thing that hits our members right on the margin when they're trying to digest other payment cuts," he said. | |
| Twenty-seven percent of working-age Texans, or more than 6.1 million people, were uninsured in 2010, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. That's the highest rate in the nation and the second-highest number to California's 7 million people. Under the Medicaid expansion, 2.5 million Texans would qualify, the Urban Institute estimates. | |
| But Texas Governor Rick Perry has been a staunch opponent of health care reform and his administration has indicated a willingness to opt out of the Medicaid expansion. For Texas hospitals, which absorbed $4.6 billion in unpaid bills and charity care in 2010, that's a problem, Hawkins said. | |
| 12.25pm: Speaking of that liberal turncoat John Roberts, who would Mitt Romney appoint as a supreme court justice if he got into the White House? Let's look at the Romney campaign's "Courts & The Constitution" web page: | |
| Mitt believes in the rule of law, and he understands that the next president will make nominations that will shape the Supreme Court and the whole of the judiciary for decades to come. He will therefore appoint wise, experienced, and restrained judges who will take seriously their oath to discharge their duties impartially in accordance with the Constitution and laws – not their own personal policy preferences. | |
| As president, Mitt will nominate judges in the mold of Chief Justice Roberts.... | |
| Let's see if that page gets "updated" anytime soon. | |
| 12.15pm: Meanwhile, the knives are out for Chief Justice John Roberts. | |
| In the Washington Examiner, Byron Yorke lays out the case against Roberts whose ruling last week "left conservatives wondering what they really knew about him all along": | |
| Republican senators loved Roberts as a nominee because he was easy to defend. He didn't have any past scandals, and, since he had never been a judge, didn't have any quirky rulings to explain. | |
| As a matter of fact, besides his glittering academic credentials and impressive resume, there wasn't a lot to say about Roberts. "He wasn't one of those who wrote op-eds and law review articles, and he didn't give speeches on issues," says one former Senate Republican aide involved in Roberts' appeals court confirmation. "He flew under the radar," says another former GOP aide who was also involved. | |
| That wasn't the reaction at the time, that's for sure. So what's the evidence against Roberts? Maybe it's this: | |
| In the confirmation process, it emerged that Roberts, as a private attorney, had done pro bono work for Lambda Legal, the gay advocacy group that was fighting what became a key homosexual rights case, Romer v Evans. | |
| So a disappointing supreme court nominee with little public record as a jurist, hastily vetted and appointed by a President Bush? Hello, David Souter. | |
| 11.47am: The Republican party can't seem to find a happy place in the aftermath of the supreme court's upholding of healthcare reforms. | |
| The GOP Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell set off a burst of intra-party turmoil with this comment yesterday: | |
| If you thought it was a good idea for the federal government to go in this direction, I'd say the odds are still on your side. Because it's a lot harder to undo something than it is to stop it in the first place. | |
| That remark sent RedState editor Erick Erickson into high dudgeon, interpreting McConnell's remark: "This is code for Republican leaders, timid as they are and driven by polling, keeping parts of Obamacare instead of doing full repeal and starting over." | |
| The truth is, I don't expect Republicans in Congress to be fully committed to repeal next year even if they have Mitt Romney in the White House, a Republican Senate, and hold the House. | |
| We've played this game before. And yes, we are being played. | |
| We are being played by a group of Republican leaders who have consistently shown in the past few years to lack the testicular fortitude to do what's right when it counts — they are the John Robertses of Congress. | |
| Republicans, at this point, are all about drawing lines in the sand against the Democrats only to wipe them away with their feet. | |
| And people think Democrats are great at organising circular firing squads. | |
| 11.34am: The IMF also had what might be perceived as a slight dig at the Romney campaign's overheated rhetoric regarding China and Mitt Romney's windbaggery threatening of a trade war: | 11.34am: The IMF also had what might be perceived as a slight dig at the Romney campaign's overheated rhetoric regarding China and Mitt Romney's windbaggery threatening of a trade war: |
| Staff welcomes the authorities' continued commitment to trade liberalization and market access, in support of growth and expanded job opportunities.... Staff commends the authorities' efforts to resist protectionist pressures in a challenging global environment, and to ensure continued consistency of domestic legislation and practices with WTO principles and international obligations. | Staff welcomes the authorities' continued commitment to trade liberalization and market access, in support of growth and expanded job opportunities.... Staff commends the authorities' efforts to resist protectionist pressures in a challenging global environment, and to ensure continued consistency of domestic legislation and practices with WTO principles and international obligations. |
| It's a coincidence, of course. | It's a coincidence, of course. |
| Actually, apart from the grim economic forecasts, there's little for the GOP to cheer, certainly policy-wise. And this is coming from the IMF remember – in no sense a bastion of weak-kneed liberal socialist Krugmanite do-gooders. | Actually, apart from the grim economic forecasts, there's little for the GOP to cheer, certainly policy-wise. And this is coming from the IMF remember – in no sense a bastion of weak-kneed liberal socialist Krugmanite do-gooders. |
| 11.20am: Full text of the IMF assessment is here, and here are the key passages: | 11.20am: Full text of the IMF assessment is here, and here are the key passages: |
| • Growth is likely to remain modest in the next two years, constrained by household deleveraging, fiscal restraint, and subpar global demand. | • Growth is likely to remain modest in the next two years, constrained by household deleveraging, fiscal restraint, and subpar global demand. |
| • The United States remains vulnerable to contagion from an intensification of the euro area debt crisis. | • The United States remains vulnerable to contagion from an intensification of the euro area debt crisis. |
| • Failure to reach an agreement on near-term tax and spending policies would trigger a severe fiscal tightening in 2013, threatening the recovery. | • Failure to reach an agreement on near-term tax and spending policies would trigger a severe fiscal tightening in 2013, threatening the recovery. |
| • Promptly raising the debt ceiling would help reduce uncertainty and avoid the risk of losses in confidence and financial market instability as the deadline approaches. | • Promptly raising the debt ceiling would help reduce uncertainty and avoid the risk of losses in confidence and financial market instability as the deadline approaches. |
| • Policymakers should agree as early as possible on a comprehensive set of measures to stabilize the public debt ratio by mid-decade and subsequently put it firmly on a downward path. | • Policymakers should agree as early as possible on a comprehensive set of measures to stabilize the public debt ratio by mid-decade and subsequently put it firmly on a downward path. |
| • The cost-saving provisions of the health care reform should be implemented fully and additional saving measures could be phased in gradually. | • The cost-saving provisions of the health care reform should be implemented fully and additional saving measures could be phased in gradually. |
| • In light of the importance of the housing market in securing the economic recovery and the downside risks to the outlook, additional steps could be taken to strengthen the housing recovery. | • In light of the importance of the housing market in securing the economic recovery and the downside risks to the outlook, additional steps could be taken to strengthen the housing recovery. |
| • Active labor market policies, such as training and support for job search, have been shown to improve the employment prospects of the long-term unemployed and thus should be adequately funded. | • Active labor market policies, such as training and support for job search, have been shown to improve the employment prospects of the long-term unemployed and thus should be adequately funded. |
| 11.05am: The IMF's assessment of the US economy – technically known as an Article IV consultation – was gloomy overall but its language will have pleased the White House in several regards, since it endorsed a range of policy platforms that the Obama administration supports in opposition to the Republicans in Congress and in the presidential race. | 11.05am: The IMF's assessment of the US economy – technically known as an Article IV consultation – was gloomy overall but its language will have pleased the White House in several regards, since it endorsed a range of policy platforms that the Obama administration supports in opposition to the Republicans in Congress and in the presidential race. |
| In particular was Lagarde's clear warning that budget cutting on the scales being talked about in Republican circles could do serious damage to both the US economy and the rest of the world. "Too strong a contraction as a result of the fiscal cliff would have severe spillover effects outside the United States," Lagarde said in her press briefing at the IMF's headquarters in Washington. | In particular was Lagarde's clear warning that budget cutting on the scales being talked about in Republican circles could do serious damage to both the US economy and the rest of the world. "Too strong a contraction as a result of the fiscal cliff would have severe spillover effects outside the United States," Lagarde said in her press briefing at the IMF's headquarters in Washington. |
| Instead, US fiscal consolidation has to be "sensible and certainly not excessive," according to Lagarde – meaning that budget cuts of about 1% of GDP "would be perfectly appropriate". | Instead, US fiscal consolidation has to be "sensible and certainly not excessive," according to Lagarde – meaning that budget cuts of about 1% of GDP "would be perfectly appropriate". |
| The implication is that the IMF is warning the US against the sort of dramatic, swingeing budget cuts seen in the UK, for example. | The implication is that the IMF is warning the US against the sort of dramatic, swingeing budget cuts seen in the UK, for example. |
| Indeed, the IMF staff warn that even the cuts proposed by the current administration may be too big, given: | Indeed, the IMF staff warn that even the cuts proposed by the current administration may be too big, given: |
| the weak economy and downside risks, the limited room for monetary policy to offset the fiscal drag, and the risk that prolonged economic slack could reduce potential output through skill erosion and the exit from the labor market of discouraged workers. | the weak economy and downside risks, the limited room for monetary policy to offset the fiscal drag, and the risk that prolonged economic slack could reduce potential output through skill erosion and the exit from the labor market of discouraged workers. |
| 10.50am: The IMF's managing director Christine Lagarde took the helm of the Fund's press conference to discuss the latest forecast for the US economy – and she five times used the word "tepid" to describe the state of the US economy. | 10.50am: The IMF's managing director Christine Lagarde took the helm of the Fund's press conference to discuss the latest forecast for the US economy – and she five times used the word "tepid" to describe the state of the US economy. |
| And that is indeed to IMF's message: just 2% GDP growth this year, well below the US's traditional rate of expansion even if in positive territory. But unlike some other forecasters – including the Federal Reserve – the IMF expects the tepid rate of growth to remain lukewarm next year as well, with 2.3% growth in 2013. | And that is indeed to IMF's message: just 2% GDP growth this year, well below the US's traditional rate of expansion even if in positive territory. But unlike some other forecasters – including the Federal Reserve – the IMF expects the tepid rate of growth to remain lukewarm next year as well, with 2.3% growth in 2013. |
| 10.30am: There's another gloomy forecast on the US economy, this time from the influential International Monetary Fund's latest assessment – suggesting that the Obama re-election campaign may continue to struggle with the consequences. | 10.30am: There's another gloomy forecast on the US economy, this time from the influential International Monetary Fund's latest assessment – suggesting that the Obama re-election campaign may continue to struggle with the consequences. |
| The IMF's economists expect US growth to remain "tepid" until the end of 2015 – although the Fund also warned against overly-harsh budget cutting of the depth being pushed by the Republicans in Congress. | The IMF's economists expect US growth to remain "tepid" until the end of 2015 – although the Fund also warned against overly-harsh budget cutting of the depth being pushed by the Republicans in Congress. |
| Meanwhile, the Republican party's brief internal ceasefire on healthcare in the wake of last week's supreme court decision appears to have ended, with the party's Senate leader Mitch McConnell admitting that "the odds are against" repealing President Obama's healthcare reforms. | Meanwhile, the Republican party's brief internal ceasefire on healthcare in the wake of last week's supreme court decision appears to have ended, with the party's Senate leader Mitch McConnell admitting that "the odds are against" repealing President Obama's healthcare reforms. |
| McConnell's remarks set off a storm of criticism within conservative Republican circles, where opposition to "Obamacare" remains intense, and criticism of Chief Justice John Roberts is becoming increasingly vocal. | McConnell's remarks set off a storm of criticism within conservative Republican circles, where opposition to "Obamacare" remains intense, and criticism of Chief Justice John Roberts is becoming increasingly vocal. |
| Here's a summary of the latest news from Ryan Devereaux: | Here's a summary of the latest news from Ryan Devereaux: |
| • Florida governor Rick Scott says his state will not expand its Medicaid programme in the wake of the supreme court upholding President Obama's signature healthcare legislation. With more than a fifth of its residents uninsured, Florida now becomes the largest state in the union to say it will opt out of the expansion. Last week we detailed how the medicaid expansion issue may become a political football in the ongoing debate over health care. | • Florida governor Rick Scott says his state will not expand its Medicaid programme in the wake of the supreme court upholding President Obama's signature healthcare legislation. With more than a fifth of its residents uninsured, Florida now becomes the largest state in the union to say it will opt out of the expansion. Last week we detailed how the medicaid expansion issue may become a political football in the ongoing debate over health care. |
| • If you're still confused about what the supreme court's healthcare ruling means, you're not alone. According to a new poll from the Pew Research Center, a lot of Americans are confounded; just 55% of the public knows that the Supreme Court upheld most of the health care law's provisions; 45% say either that the court rejected most provisions (15%) or do not know what the court did (30%). Meanwhile, of those who do think they know what the ruling is all about, 40% say they disapprove of the decision, while 36% approve and nearly a quarter offer no opinion. | • If you're still confused about what the supreme court's healthcare ruling means, you're not alone. According to a new poll from the Pew Research Center, a lot of Americans are confounded; just 55% of the public knows that the Supreme Court upheld most of the health care law's provisions; 45% say either that the court rejected most provisions (15%) or do not know what the court did (30%). Meanwhile, of those who do think they know what the ruling is all about, 40% say they disapprove of the decision, while 36% approve and nearly a quarter offer no opinion. |
| • In his latest campaign ad, President Obama accuses Mitt Romney of being a "pioneer in outsourcing". It's a claim that Romney's campaign has consistently disputed, pointing to a Factcheck.org analysis that challenges the president's claim. Obama's team has dismissed the analysis and even wrote a letter to challenge the site's conclusions. The new ad is a sign that Obama administration is going to stick to its narrative and is running in nine politically important states, including Colorado and Virginia. | • In his latest campaign ad, President Obama accuses Mitt Romney of being a "pioneer in outsourcing". It's a claim that Romney's campaign has consistently disputed, pointing to a Factcheck.org analysis that challenges the president's claim. Obama's team has dismissed the analysis and even wrote a letter to challenge the site's conclusions. The new ad is a sign that Obama administration is going to stick to its narrative and is running in nine politically important states, including Colorado and Virginia. |
| • Eric Holder says the Republican party has used him as a "proxy" to attack the president. Holder has found himself the focus of a house investigation, spear-headed by Republican Darrell Issa. Last week the GOP-run House voted to cite Holder for contempt of Congress in a fight over documents related to a botched gunning-running operation undertaken by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, in which the agency allowed thousands of guns to "walk" over the US-Mexico border and into the hands of violent drug cartels. | • Eric Holder says the Republican party has used him as a "proxy" to attack the president. Holder has found himself the focus of a house investigation, spear-headed by Republican Darrell Issa. Last week the GOP-run House voted to cite Holder for contempt of Congress in a fight over documents related to a botched gunning-running operation undertaken by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, in which the agency allowed thousands of guns to "walk" over the US-Mexico border and into the hands of violent drug cartels. |
| • Mitt Romney plans to make a trip to Israel this summer to woo prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders. The exact details of the former governor's Israel policy remain unclear, but he has said plans to "do the opposite" of president Obama. | • Mitt Romney plans to make a trip to Israel this summer to woo prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders. The exact details of the former governor's Israel policy remain unclear, but he has said plans to "do the opposite" of president Obama. |
| • Meanwhile, the Republican party's presidential hopeful is enjoying a week with his family at their $8m estate in New Hampshire. Each year the Romney clan gathers in Wolfeboro, NH to challenge each other in a variety of games – such as who can pound the most nails into a board in two minutes and who can hang from a pole the longest – the family wear coordinated outfits and everybody chips in by picking a daily chore from the "chore wheel". | • Meanwhile, the Republican party's presidential hopeful is enjoying a week with his family at their $8m estate in New Hampshire. Each year the Romney clan gathers in Wolfeboro, NH to challenge each other in a variety of games – such as who can pound the most nails into a board in two minutes and who can hang from a pole the longest – the family wear coordinated outfits and everybody chips in by picking a daily chore from the "chore wheel". |