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IMF issues downbeat US economic forecast - US politics live IMF issues downbeat US economic forecast - US politics live
(40 minutes later)
4pm: Finally, in the spirit of Independence Day, what captures the meaning of "America" better than a portrait of Ronald Reagan riding a Velociraptor while firing an automatic weapon?
Happy Fourth of July.
3.45pm: Via Think Progress, a nasty piece of work from Republican congressman Joe Walsh, who is in a tough election battle against Democratic candidate Tammy Duckworth. Duckworth is a military veteran – but that's not good enough for Walsh, who told a town hall meeting:
Understand something about John McCain. His political advisers, day after day, had to take him and almost throw him against a wall and hit him against the head and say, "Senator, you have to let people know you served! You have to talk about what you did!" He didn't want to do it, wouldn't do it. Day after day they had to convince him. Finally, he talked a little bit about it, but it was very uncomfortable for him. That's what's so noble about our heroes. Now I'm running against a woman who, my God, that's all she talks about. Our true heroes, it's the last thing in the world they talk about. That's why we're so indebted and in awe of what they've done.
Duckworth is a double amputee who lost both her legs in Iraq when insurgents fired on the helicopter she was piloting with rockets. In the circumstances it would be perverse of her not to mention her military service. Not to ignore the fact that she served for more than 20 years, rose to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel and received multiple military awards, including a Purple Heart.
Joe Walsh never served in the military.
3.25pm: No summer holiday for the Obamas in the swanky Martha's Vineyard this year, reports the Boston Globe:3.25pm: No summer holiday for the Obamas in the swanky Martha's Vineyard this year, reports the Boston Globe:
The State Police detachment on the island has been told that the president will not be coming; extensive bookings to house the president's staff and security have been canceled by the White House travel office; and the 28-acre waterfront ­estate in Chilmark where the Obamas stayed the last three years has been sold to a British couple.The State Police detachment on the island has been told that the president will not be coming; extensive bookings to house the president's staff and security have been canceled by the White House travel office; and the 28-acre waterfront ­estate in Chilmark where the Obamas stayed the last three years has been sold to a British couple.
Sold to a British couple? Fancy that. Anyway, I hear Virginia's nice this time of year. Once they put the power back on.Sold to a British couple? Fancy that. Anyway, I hear Virginia's nice this time of year. Once they put the power back on.
3.16pm: Earlier today there was talk that the Romney campaign wanted to move on from the healthcare debate and had declared a "cease-fire" on the topic.3.16pm: Earlier today there was talk that the Romney campaign wanted to move on from the healthcare debate and had declared a "cease-fire" on the topic.
No, no, no, the Romneyites tell Byron York:No, no, no, the Romneyites tell Byron York:
So is the Romney campaign, in fact, declaring a "cease-fire" on Obamacare? No, no, no, says Romney spokesman Ryan Williams. "From our perspective, Obamacare has been and will continue to be a central issue in the campaign," says Williams. "It presents voters with a bright line that divides the two candidates. Governor Romney is going to repeal Obamacare and President Obama is going to keep it. There is a clear choice in November.So is the Romney campaign, in fact, declaring a "cease-fire" on Obamacare? No, no, no, says Romney spokesman Ryan Williams. "From our perspective, Obamacare has been and will continue to be a central issue in the campaign," says Williams. "It presents voters with a bright line that divides the two candidates. Governor Romney is going to repeal Obamacare and President Obama is going to keep it. There is a clear choice in November.
"If Mitt Romney calls a "cease fire" on Obamacare, he might as well buy his tickets now for the Obama inauguration.""If Mitt Romney calls a "cease fire" on Obamacare, he might as well buy his tickets now for the Obama inauguration."
Change of heart? Maybe this is one reason.Change of heart? Maybe this is one reason.
3.05pm: Paul Campos, a law professor at the University of Colorado, writes in Salon that "a source within the court with direct knowledge of the drafting process" tells him Chief Justice John Roberts wrote much of the dissent against the supreme court's healthcare ruling – before turning around and writing the majority opinion as well:3.05pm: Paul Campos, a law professor at the University of Colorado, writes in Salon that "a source within the court with direct knowledge of the drafting process" tells him Chief Justice John Roberts wrote much of the dissent against the supreme court's healthcare ruling – before turning around and writing the majority opinion as well:
My source insists that "most of the material in the first three quarters of the joint dissent was drafted in Chief Justice Roberts' chambers in April and May." Only the last portion of what eventually became the joint dissent was drafted without any participation by the chief justice.My source insists that "most of the material in the first three quarters of the joint dissent was drafted in Chief Justice Roberts' chambers in April and May." Only the last portion of what eventually became the joint dissent was drafted without any participation by the chief justice.
This is all starting to get a bit weird.This is all starting to get a bit weird.
3pm: Vanity Fair has a long and detailed look at Mitt Romney's personal finances, much of it parked offshore in opaque accounts. And it's all perfectly legal.3pm: Vanity Fair has a long and detailed look at Mitt Romney's personal finances, much of it parked offshore in opaque accounts. And it's all perfectly legal.
2.55pm: There really is no escape from healthcare reform, even in marking the passing of television icon Andy Griffith.2.55pm: There really is no escape from healthcare reform, even in marking the passing of television icon Andy Griffith.
This, apparently, was Griffith's last appearance on national television.This, apparently, was Griffith's last appearance on national television.
2.45pm: We have reached the point in the supreme court healthcare decision aftermath where bloggers are writing posts with headlines such as "More Speculation On The Supreme Court Leaker".2.45pm: We have reached the point in the supreme court healthcare decision aftermath where bloggers are writing posts with headlines such as "More Speculation On The Supreme Court Leaker".
Here's a thought: John Roberts himself is the leaker. Why? Under Agatha Christie rules it's always the least-likely suspect. And also, maybe he wants people to know that he was really close to chucking Obamacare out.Here's a thought: John Roberts himself is the leaker. Why? Under Agatha Christie rules it's always the least-likely suspect. And also, maybe he wants people to know that he was really close to chucking Obamacare out.
2.28pm: To prove there's no escape, here's cowardly flip-flopper Chief Justice John Roberts arriving in Malta today.2.28pm: To prove there's no escape, here's cowardly flip-flopper Chief Justice John Roberts arriving in Malta today.
So much for the island fortress eh? Here Roberts is arriving "for a lecture on the history of the US Supreme Court at the Old University of Malta, in Valletta," according to the AP caption. I think we can assume Roberts is giving the lecture. Although after last week, who knows?So much for the island fortress eh? Here Roberts is arriving "for a lecture on the history of the US Supreme Court at the Old University of Malta, in Valletta," according to the AP caption. I think we can assume Roberts is giving the lecture. Although after last week, who knows?
2.10pm: The War of Roberts's Ear continues in print, with conservative commentator John Podhoretz calling the chief justice of the supreme court a "coward" for allegedly changing his mind over worries about attacks in the media:2.10pm: The War of Roberts's Ear continues in print, with conservative commentator John Podhoretz calling the chief justice of the supreme court a "coward" for allegedly changing his mind over worries about attacks in the media:
And if this is indeed why the chief justice changed his vote — out of fear of attacks on the court's legitimacy by scribblers like me — then the court's legitimacy deserves to be challenged.And if this is indeed why the chief justice changed his vote — out of fear of attacks on the court's legitimacy by scribblers like me — then the court's legitimacy deserves to be challenged.
What legitimacy does a decision on the most important case of the last decade have if a justice came to it for reasons other than his understanding of the law?What legitimacy does a decision on the most important case of the last decade have if a justice came to it for reasons other than his understanding of the law?
Not to mention that the naked intellectual cynicism on display in the Roberts opinion has satisfied no one.Not to mention that the naked intellectual cynicism on display in the Roberts opinion has satisfied no one.
1.45pm: First it was Rupert Murdoch, now Mitt Romney comes under Twitter-attack from legendary CEO Jack Welch.1.45pm: First it was Rupert Murdoch, now Mitt Romney comes under Twitter-attack from legendary CEO Jack Welch.
Hope Mitt Romney is listening to Murdoch advice ont campaign staff..playing in league with Chicago pols..No room for amateursHope Mitt Romney is listening to Murdoch advice ont campaign staff..playing in league with Chicago pols..No room for amateurs
The New York Times surveys the death-by-tweeting thus:The New York Times surveys the death-by-tweeting thus:
The message to Mr Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, was clear: dump your staff if you want to beat President Obama and his array of experienced, Chicago-based campaign operatives.The message to Mr Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, was clear: dump your staff if you want to beat President Obama and his array of experienced, Chicago-based campaign operatives.
The prospect of Mr Romney following this advice? Not likely.The prospect of Mr Romney following this advice? Not likely.
Although ... if both Rupert Murdoch and Jack Welch gave you advice, wouldn't you at least think about it? OK, maybe not fashion tips.Although ... if both Rupert Murdoch and Jack Welch gave you advice, wouldn't you at least think about it? OK, maybe not fashion tips.
1.34pm: Not everyone buys the "John Roberts flipped on the individual mandate" theory advanced by Jan Crawford and anonymous sources in that CBS News piece.1.34pm: Not everyone buys the "John Roberts flipped on the individual mandate" theory advanced by Jan Crawford and anonymous sources in that CBS News piece.
Matthew Franck in the National Review Online is sceptical:Matthew Franck in the National Review Online is sceptical:
But what does Crawford actually claim to know? Just the following:But what does Crawford actually claim to know? Just the following:
• that Roberts held one view in March, and a different one in May;
• that one or more of the four conservative justices, notably including Kennedy, tried to win him back to their view;
• that a month of trying to persuade him failed;
• that Chief Justice Roberts "pays attention to media coverage."		• that Roberts held one view in March, and a different one in May;
• that one or more of the four conservative justices, notably including Kennedy, tried to win him back to their view;
• that a month of trying to persuade him failed;
• that Chief Justice Roberts "pays attention to media coverage."
That's it. Sadly, for such a talented (and obviously well-placed) reporter, Crawford seems to work hard to achieve a certain effect in her story, namely that Roberts decided as he did for reasons that had nothing to do with the merits of the arguments in the case.That's it. Sadly, for such a talented (and obviously well-placed) reporter, Crawford seems to work hard to achieve a certain effect in her story, namely that Roberts decided as he did for reasons that had nothing to do with the merits of the arguments in the case.
Franck also points out that buried in paragraph 21 of the CBS article is this: "It is not known why Roberts changed his view on the mandate and decided to uphold the law."Franck also points out that buried in paragraph 21 of the CBS article is this: "It is not known why Roberts changed his view on the mandate and decided to uphold the law."
1.19pm: Much conspiracy theorising going on over the Jan Crawford CBS News piece that came out on Sunday, making the blockbuster claim that Chief Justice John Roberts had initially planned to vote down Obamacare before flipping and backing its key provisions:1.19pm: Much conspiracy theorising going on over the Jan Crawford CBS News piece that came out on Sunday, making the blockbuster claim that Chief Justice John Roberts had initially planned to vote down Obamacare before flipping and backing its key provisions:
Chief Justice John Roberts initially sided with the Supreme Court's four conservative justices to strike down the heart of President Obama's health care reform law, the Affordable Care Act, but later changed his position and formed an alliance with liberals to uphold the bulk of the law, according to two sources with specific knowledge of the deliberations.Chief Justice John Roberts initially sided with the Supreme Court's four conservative justices to strike down the heart of President Obama's health care reform law, the Affordable Care Act, but later changed his position and formed an alliance with liberals to uphold the bulk of the law, according to two sources with specific knowledge of the deliberations.
Since only a few people – the justices and their clerks – could have known whether or not Roberts did change horses mid-stream, speculation is rampant over who leaked it to CBS. Politico's Dylan Byers has a helpful summary of who the possible leakers might be.Since only a few people – the justices and their clerks – could have known whether or not Roberts did change horses mid-stream, speculation is rampant over who leaked it to CBS. Politico's Dylan Byers has a helpful summary of who the possible leakers might be.
1.08pm: Political tactic du jour: praise your opponent's predecessors as principled world leaders, in unflattering contrast to the political pygmy now in their post:1.08pm: Political tactic du jour: praise your opponent's predecessors as principled world leaders, in unflattering contrast to the political pygmy now in their post:
Obama has made positive public mentions of McCain, an Arizona senator, at least six times over the last two months, including telling donors at a June 14 fundraiser hosted by actress Sarah Jessica Parker in New York City how much he had agreed with his rival on issues central to their 2008 battle.Obama has made positive public mentions of McCain, an Arizona senator, at least six times over the last two months, including telling donors at a June 14 fundraiser hosted by actress Sarah Jessica Parker in New York City how much he had agreed with his rival on issues central to their 2008 battle.
Romney similarly has invoked Clinton, the former Democratic president, at least four times over the same period, including extolling him as a "mainstream" leader who worked with Republicans to shrink government and overhaul the welfare system.Romney similarly has invoked Clinton, the former Democratic president, at least four times over the same period, including extolling him as a "mainstream" leader who worked with Republicans to shrink government and overhaul the welfare system.
12.55pm: Some interesting tweets on the changing political landscape as the election season moves towards its summer hibernation:12.55pm: Some interesting tweets on the changing political landscape as the election season moves towards its summer hibernation:
Inbox: DCCC Raises $2.3 Million Post-Health Care Ruling and Posts Biggest Online Day in HistoryInbox: DCCC Raises $2.3 Million Post-Health Care Ruling and Posts Biggest Online Day in History
The DCCC being the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – and if it raised $2.3m then other parts of the Democratic party must have also been doing well.The DCCC being the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – and if it raised $2.3m then other parts of the Democratic party must have also been doing well.
Obama is placing another $18 million (and counting) on bcast/cable in IA, CO, FL, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA for the next four weeks, 7/3-7/30Obama is placing another $18 million (and counting) on bcast/cable in IA, CO, FL, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA for the next four weeks, 7/3-7/30
And a sign the Obama campaign is going on the offensive and seeking to frame the message before the summer Olympic hiatus arrives. Interesting: ad buys in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, the others being acknowledged swing states.And a sign the Obama campaign is going on the offensive and seeking to frame the message before the summer Olympic hiatus arrives. Interesting: ad buys in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, the others being acknowledged swing states.
12.42pm: Another sign of Hispanic unhappiness at the ham-fisted caution of the Romney campaign – BuzzFeed Politics's McKay Coppins hears influential Hispanic Florida Republican David Rivera lambaste Romney on immigration:12.42pm: Another sign of Hispanic unhappiness at the ham-fisted caution of the Romney campaign – BuzzFeed Politics's McKay Coppins hears influential Hispanic Florida Republican David Rivera lambaste Romney on immigration:
Asked whether he would rally that community to turn out for Romney on election day, Rivera said he was committed to defeating President Obama. But he added that as long as Romney's immigration position remains hazy, he would refuse to act as an official surrogate to Hispanic voters.Asked whether he would rally that community to turn out for Romney on election day, Rivera said he was committed to defeating President Obama. But he added that as long as Romney's immigration position remains hazy, he would refuse to act as an official surrogate to Hispanic voters.
"I'm not willing to participate in any Hispanic outreach efforts without seeing more details on a permanent solution for these kids," he said."I'm not willing to participate in any Hispanic outreach efforts without seeing more details on a permanent solution for these kids," he said.
He said Obama is winning the fight for Hispanic voters because Romney hasn't given his Latino supporters anything to work with.He said Obama is winning the fight for Hispanic voters because Romney hasn't given his Latino supporters anything to work with.
"Right now, his Hispanic supporters and Hispanic surrogates don't have the ammunition to combat the Obama attacks on him," Rivera said."Right now, his Hispanic supporters and Hispanic surrogates don't have the ammunition to combat the Obama attacks on him," Rivera said.
Rivera is close to Florida senator Marco Rubio but not to Romney, after Rivera backed Newt Gingrich in the Florida primary.Rivera is close to Florida senator Marco Rubio but not to Romney, after Rivera backed Newt Gingrich in the Florida primary.
Univision's Jordan Fabian notes:Univision's Jordan Fabian notes:
Rivera's message has been echoed by other Latino Republican activists and officials for some time. Republicans, including some on Romney's team, understand that losing Latino voters by a wide margin to Obama could dramatically narrow the GOP candidate's path to victory in November and imperil the party in the long-term.Rivera's message has been echoed by other Latino Republican activists and officials for some time. Republicans, including some on Romney's team, understand that losing Latino voters by a wide margin to Obama could dramatically narrow the GOP candidate's path to victory in November and imperil the party in the long-term.
12.37pm: Republican governors blocking the Medicaid expansion planned under the Affordable Care Act is worrying hospitals who have to deal with the consequences of treating the uninsured, writes the Huffington Post's Jeffrey Young:12.37pm: Republican governors blocking the Medicaid expansion planned under the Affordable Care Act is worrying hospitals who have to deal with the consequences of treating the uninsured, writes the Huffington Post's Jeffrey Young:
Getting the Medicaid expansion in place has already become the "number one priority" for the Texas Hospital Association, said John Hawkins, the senior vice president for advocacy and public policy at the organization. "It's the kind of thing that hits our members right on the margin when they're trying to digest other payment cuts," he said.Getting the Medicaid expansion in place has already become the "number one priority" for the Texas Hospital Association, said John Hawkins, the senior vice president for advocacy and public policy at the organization. "It's the kind of thing that hits our members right on the margin when they're trying to digest other payment cuts," he said.
Twenty-seven percent of working-age Texans, or more than 6.1 million people, were uninsured in 2010, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. That's the highest rate in the nation and the second-highest number to California's 7 million people. Under the Medicaid expansion, 2.5 million Texans would qualify, the Urban Institute estimates.Twenty-seven percent of working-age Texans, or more than 6.1 million people, were uninsured in 2010, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. That's the highest rate in the nation and the second-highest number to California's 7 million people. Under the Medicaid expansion, 2.5 million Texans would qualify, the Urban Institute estimates.
But Texas Governor Rick Perry has been a staunch opponent of health care reform and his administration has indicated a willingness to opt out of the Medicaid expansion. For Texas hospitals, which absorbed $4.6 billion in unpaid bills and charity care in 2010, that's a problem, Hawkins said.But Texas Governor Rick Perry has been a staunch opponent of health care reform and his administration has indicated a willingness to opt out of the Medicaid expansion. For Texas hospitals, which absorbed $4.6 billion in unpaid bills and charity care in 2010, that's a problem, Hawkins said.
12.25pm: Speaking of that liberal turncoat John Roberts, who would Mitt Romney appoint as a supreme court justice if he got into the White House? Let's look at the Romney campaign's "Courts & The Constitution" web page:12.25pm: Speaking of that liberal turncoat John Roberts, who would Mitt Romney appoint as a supreme court justice if he got into the White House? Let's look at the Romney campaign's "Courts & The Constitution" web page:
Mitt believes in the rule of law, and he understands that the next president will make nominations that will shape the Supreme Court and the whole of the judiciary for decades to come. He will therefore appoint wise, experienced, and restrained judges who will take seriously their oath to discharge their duties impartially in accordance with the Constitution and laws – not their own personal policy preferences.Mitt believes in the rule of law, and he understands that the next president will make nominations that will shape the Supreme Court and the whole of the judiciary for decades to come. He will therefore appoint wise, experienced, and restrained judges who will take seriously their oath to discharge their duties impartially in accordance with the Constitution and laws – not their own personal policy preferences.
As president, Mitt will nominate judges in the mold of Chief Justice Roberts....As president, Mitt will nominate judges in the mold of Chief Justice Roberts....
Let's see if that page gets "updated" anytime soon.Let's see if that page gets "updated" anytime soon.
12.15pm: Meanwhile, the knives are out for Chief Justice John Roberts.12.15pm: Meanwhile, the knives are out for Chief Justice John Roberts.
In the Washington Examiner, Byron Yorke lays out the case against Roberts whose ruling last week "left conservatives wondering what they really knew about him all along":In the Washington Examiner, Byron Yorke lays out the case against Roberts whose ruling last week "left conservatives wondering what they really knew about him all along":
Republican senators loved Roberts as a nominee because he was easy to defend. He didn't have any past scandals, and, since he had never been a judge, didn't have any quirky rulings to explain.Republican senators loved Roberts as a nominee because he was easy to defend. He didn't have any past scandals, and, since he had never been a judge, didn't have any quirky rulings to explain.
As a matter of fact, besides his glittering academic credentials and impressive resume, there wasn't a lot to say about Roberts. "He wasn't one of those who wrote op-eds and law review articles, and he didn't give speeches on issues," says one former Senate Republican aide involved in Roberts' appeals court confirmation. "He flew under the radar," says another former GOP aide who was also involved.As a matter of fact, besides his glittering academic credentials and impressive resume, there wasn't a lot to say about Roberts. "He wasn't one of those who wrote op-eds and law review articles, and he didn't give speeches on issues," says one former Senate Republican aide involved in Roberts' appeals court confirmation. "He flew under the radar," says another former GOP aide who was also involved.
That wasn't the reaction at the time, that's for sure. So what's the evidence against Roberts? Maybe it's this:That wasn't the reaction at the time, that's for sure. So what's the evidence against Roberts? Maybe it's this:
In the confirmation process, it emerged that Roberts, as a private attorney, had done pro bono work for Lambda Legal, the gay advocacy group that was fighting what became a key homosexual rights case, Romer v Evans.In the confirmation process, it emerged that Roberts, as a private attorney, had done pro bono work for Lambda Legal, the gay advocacy group that was fighting what became a key homosexual rights case, Romer v Evans.
So a disappointing supreme court nominee with little public record as a jurist, hastily vetted and appointed by a President Bush? Hello, David Souter.So a disappointing supreme court nominee with little public record as a jurist, hastily vetted and appointed by a President Bush? Hello, David Souter.
11.47am: The Republican party can't seem to find a happy place in the aftermath of the supreme court's upholding of healthcare reforms.11.47am: The Republican party can't seem to find a happy place in the aftermath of the supreme court's upholding of healthcare reforms.
The GOP Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell set off a burst of intra-party turmoil with this comment yesterday:The GOP Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell set off a burst of intra-party turmoil with this comment yesterday:
If you thought it was a good idea for the federal government to go in this direction, I'd say the odds are still on your side. Because it's a lot harder to undo something than it is to stop it in the first place.If you thought it was a good idea for the federal government to go in this direction, I'd say the odds are still on your side. Because it's a lot harder to undo something than it is to stop it in the first place.
That remark sent RedState editor Erick Erickson into high dudgeon, interpreting McConnell's remark: "This is code for Republican leaders, timid as they are and driven by polling, keeping parts of Obamacare instead of doing full repeal and starting over."That remark sent RedState editor Erick Erickson into high dudgeon, interpreting McConnell's remark: "This is code for Republican leaders, timid as they are and driven by polling, keeping parts of Obamacare instead of doing full repeal and starting over."
The truth is, I don't expect Republicans in Congress to be fully committed to repeal next year even if they have Mitt Romney in the White House, a Republican Senate, and hold the House.The truth is, I don't expect Republicans in Congress to be fully committed to repeal next year even if they have Mitt Romney in the White House, a Republican Senate, and hold the House.
We've played this game before. And yes, we are being played.We've played this game before. And yes, we are being played.
We are being played by a group of Republican leaders who have consistently shown in the past few years to lack the testicular fortitude to do what's right when it counts — they are the John Robertses of Congress.We are being played by a group of Republican leaders who have consistently shown in the past few years to lack the testicular fortitude to do what's right when it counts — they are the John Robertses of Congress.
Republicans, at this point, are all about drawing lines in the sand against the Democrats only to wipe them away with their feet.Republicans, at this point, are all about drawing lines in the sand against the Democrats only to wipe them away with their feet.
And people think Democrats are great at organising circular firing squads.And people think Democrats are great at organising circular firing squads.
11.34am: The IMF also had what might be perceived as a slight dig at the Romney campaign's overheated rhetoric regarding China and Mitt Romney's windbaggery threatening of a trade war:11.34am: The IMF also had what might be perceived as a slight dig at the Romney campaign's overheated rhetoric regarding China and Mitt Romney's windbaggery threatening of a trade war:
Staff welcomes the authorities' continued commitment to trade liberalization and market access, in support of growth and expanded job opportunities.... Staff commends the authorities' efforts to resist protectionist pressures in a challenging global environment, and to ensure continued consistency of domestic legislation and practices with WTO principles and international obligations.Staff welcomes the authorities' continued commitment to trade liberalization and market access, in support of growth and expanded job opportunities.... Staff commends the authorities' efforts to resist protectionist pressures in a challenging global environment, and to ensure continued consistency of domestic legislation and practices with WTO principles and international obligations.
It's a coincidence, of course.It's a coincidence, of course.
Actually, apart from the grim economic forecasts, there's little for the GOP to cheer, certainly policy-wise. And this is coming from the IMF remember – in no sense a bastion of weak-kneed liberal socialist Krugmanite do-gooders.Actually, apart from the grim economic forecasts, there's little for the GOP to cheer, certainly policy-wise. And this is coming from the IMF remember – in no sense a bastion of weak-kneed liberal socialist Krugmanite do-gooders.
11.20am: Full text of the IMF assessment is here, and here are the key passages:11.20am: Full text of the IMF assessment is here, and here are the key passages:
• Growth is likely to remain modest in the next two years, constrained by household deleveraging, fiscal restraint, and subpar global demand.• Growth is likely to remain modest in the next two years, constrained by household deleveraging, fiscal restraint, and subpar global demand.
• The United States remains vulnerable to contagion from an intensification of the euro area debt crisis.• The United States remains vulnerable to contagion from an intensification of the euro area debt crisis.
• Failure to reach an agreement on near-term tax and spending policies would trigger a severe fiscal tightening in 2013, threatening the recovery.• Failure to reach an agreement on near-term tax and spending policies would trigger a severe fiscal tightening in 2013, threatening the recovery.
• Promptly raising the debt ceiling would help reduce uncertainty and avoid the risk of losses in confidence and financial market instability as the deadline approaches.• Promptly raising the debt ceiling would help reduce uncertainty and avoid the risk of losses in confidence and financial market instability as the deadline approaches.
• Policymakers should agree as early as possible on a comprehensive set of measures to stabilize the public debt ratio by mid-decade and subsequently put it firmly on a downward path.• Policymakers should agree as early as possible on a comprehensive set of measures to stabilize the public debt ratio by mid-decade and subsequently put it firmly on a downward path.
• The cost-saving provisions of the health care reform should be implemented fully and additional saving measures could be phased in gradually.• The cost-saving provisions of the health care reform should be implemented fully and additional saving measures could be phased in gradually.
• In light of the importance of the housing market in securing the economic recovery and the downside risks to the outlook, additional steps could be taken to strengthen the housing recovery.• In light of the importance of the housing market in securing the economic recovery and the downside risks to the outlook, additional steps could be taken to strengthen the housing recovery.
• Active labor market policies, such as training and support for job search, have been shown to improve the employment prospects of the long-term unemployed and thus should be adequately funded.• Active labor market policies, such as training and support for job search, have been shown to improve the employment prospects of the long-term unemployed and thus should be adequately funded.
11.05am: The IMF's assessment of the US economy – technically known as an Article IV consultation – was gloomy overall but its language will have pleased the White House in several regards, since it endorsed a range of policy platforms that the Obama administration supports in opposition to the Republicans in Congress and in the presidential race.11.05am: The IMF's assessment of the US economy – technically known as an Article IV consultation – was gloomy overall but its language will have pleased the White House in several regards, since it endorsed a range of policy platforms that the Obama administration supports in opposition to the Republicans in Congress and in the presidential race.
In particular was Lagarde's clear warning that budget cutting on the scales being talked about in Republican circles could do serious damage to both the US economy and the rest of the world. "Too strong a contraction as a result of the fiscal cliff would have severe spillover effects outside the United States," Lagarde said in her press briefing at the IMF's headquarters in Washington.In particular was Lagarde's clear warning that budget cutting on the scales being talked about in Republican circles could do serious damage to both the US economy and the rest of the world. "Too strong a contraction as a result of the fiscal cliff would have severe spillover effects outside the United States," Lagarde said in her press briefing at the IMF's headquarters in Washington.
Instead, US fiscal consolidation has to be "sensible and certainly not excessive," according to Lagarde – meaning that budget cuts of about 1% of GDP "would be perfectly appropriate".Instead, US fiscal consolidation has to be "sensible and certainly not excessive," according to Lagarde – meaning that budget cuts of about 1% of GDP "would be perfectly appropriate".
The implication is that the IMF is warning the US against the sort of dramatic, swingeing budget cuts seen in the UK, for example.The implication is that the IMF is warning the US against the sort of dramatic, swingeing budget cuts seen in the UK, for example.
Indeed, the IMF staff warn that even the cuts proposed by the current administration may be too big, given:Indeed, the IMF staff warn that even the cuts proposed by the current administration may be too big, given:
the weak economy and downside risks, the limited room for monetary policy to offset the fiscal drag, and the risk that prolonged economic slack could reduce potential output through skill erosion and the exit from the labor market of discouraged workers.the weak economy and downside risks, the limited room for monetary policy to offset the fiscal drag, and the risk that prolonged economic slack could reduce potential output through skill erosion and the exit from the labor market of discouraged workers.
10.50am: The IMF's managing director Christine Lagarde took the helm of the Fund's press conference to discuss the latest forecast for the US economy – and she five times used the word "tepid" to describe the state of the US economy.10.50am: The IMF's managing director Christine Lagarde took the helm of the Fund's press conference to discuss the latest forecast for the US economy – and she five times used the word "tepid" to describe the state of the US economy.
And that is indeed to IMF's message: just 2% GDP growth this year, well below the US's traditional rate of expansion even if in positive territory. But unlike some other forecasters – including the Federal Reserve – the IMF expects the tepid rate of growth to remain lukewarm next year as well, with 2.3% growth in 2013.And that is indeed to IMF's message: just 2% GDP growth this year, well below the US's traditional rate of expansion even if in positive territory. But unlike some other forecasters – including the Federal Reserve – the IMF expects the tepid rate of growth to remain lukewarm next year as well, with 2.3% growth in 2013.
10.30am: There's another gloomy forecast on the US economy, this time from the influential International Monetary Fund's latest assessment – suggesting that the Obama re-election campaign may continue to struggle with the consequences.10.30am: There's another gloomy forecast on the US economy, this time from the influential International Monetary Fund's latest assessment – suggesting that the Obama re-election campaign may continue to struggle with the consequences.
The IMF's economists expect US growth to remain "tepid" until the end of 2015 – although the Fund also warned against overly-harsh budget cutting of the depth being pushed by the Republicans in Congress.The IMF's economists expect US growth to remain "tepid" until the end of 2015 – although the Fund also warned against overly-harsh budget cutting of the depth being pushed by the Republicans in Congress.
Meanwhile, the Republican party's brief internal ceasefire on healthcare in the wake of last week's supreme court decision appears to have ended, with the party's Senate leader Mitch McConnell admitting that "the odds are against" repealing President Obama's healthcare reforms.Meanwhile, the Republican party's brief internal ceasefire on healthcare in the wake of last week's supreme court decision appears to have ended, with the party's Senate leader Mitch McConnell admitting that "the odds are against" repealing President Obama's healthcare reforms.
McConnell's remarks set off a storm of criticism within conservative Republican circles, where opposition to "Obamacare" remains intense, and criticism of Chief Justice John Roberts is becoming increasingly vocal.McConnell's remarks set off a storm of criticism within conservative Republican circles, where opposition to "Obamacare" remains intense, and criticism of Chief Justice John Roberts is becoming increasingly vocal.
Here's a summary of the latest news from Ryan Devereaux:Here's a summary of the latest news from Ryan Devereaux:
• Florida governor Rick Scott says his state will not expand its Medicaid programme in the wake of the supreme court upholding President Obama's signature healthcare legislation. With more than a fifth of its residents uninsured, Florida now becomes the largest state in the union to say it will opt out of the expansion. Last week we detailed how the medicaid expansion issue may become a political football in the ongoing debate over health care.• Florida governor Rick Scott says his state will not expand its Medicaid programme in the wake of the supreme court upholding President Obama's signature healthcare legislation. With more than a fifth of its residents uninsured, Florida now becomes the largest state in the union to say it will opt out of the expansion. Last week we detailed how the medicaid expansion issue may become a political football in the ongoing debate over health care.
• If you're still confused about what the supreme court's healthcare ruling means, you're not alone. According to a new poll from the Pew Research Center, a lot of Americans are confounded; just 55% of the public knows that the Supreme Court upheld most of the health care law's provisions; 45% say either that the court rejected most provisions (15%) or do not know what the court did (30%). Meanwhile, of those who do think they know what the ruling is all about, 40% say they disapprove of the decision, while 36% approve and nearly a quarter offer no opinion.• If you're still confused about what the supreme court's healthcare ruling means, you're not alone. According to a new poll from the Pew Research Center, a lot of Americans are confounded; just 55% of the public knows that the Supreme Court upheld most of the health care law's provisions; 45% say either that the court rejected most provisions (15%) or do not know what the court did (30%). Meanwhile, of those who do think they know what the ruling is all about, 40% say they disapprove of the decision, while 36% approve and nearly a quarter offer no opinion.
• In his latest campaign ad, President Obama accuses Mitt Romney of being a "pioneer in outsourcing". It's a claim that Romney's campaign has consistently disputed, pointing to a Factcheck.org analysis that challenges the president's claim. Obama's team has dismissed the analysis and even wrote a letter to challenge the site's conclusions. The new ad is a sign that Obama administration is going to stick to its narrative and is running in nine politically important states, including Colorado and Virginia.• In his latest campaign ad, President Obama accuses Mitt Romney of being a "pioneer in outsourcing". It's a claim that Romney's campaign has consistently disputed, pointing to a Factcheck.org analysis that challenges the president's claim. Obama's team has dismissed the analysis and even wrote a letter to challenge the site's conclusions. The new ad is a sign that Obama administration is going to stick to its narrative and is running in nine politically important states, including Colorado and Virginia.
• Eric Holder says the Republican party has used him as a "proxy" to attack the president. Holder has found himself the focus of a house investigation, spear-headed by Republican Darrell Issa. Last week the GOP-run House voted to cite Holder for contempt of Congress in a fight over documents related to a botched gunning-running operation undertaken by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, in which the agency allowed thousands of guns to "walk" over the US-Mexico border and into the hands of violent drug cartels.• Eric Holder says the Republican party has used him as a "proxy" to attack the president. Holder has found himself the focus of a house investigation, spear-headed by Republican Darrell Issa. Last week the GOP-run House voted to cite Holder for contempt of Congress in a fight over documents related to a botched gunning-running operation undertaken by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, in which the agency allowed thousands of guns to "walk" over the US-Mexico border and into the hands of violent drug cartels.
• Mitt Romney plans to make a trip to Israel this summer to woo prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders. The exact details of the former governor's Israel policy remain unclear, but he has said plans to "do the opposite" of president Obama.• Mitt Romney plans to make a trip to Israel this summer to woo prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders. The exact details of the former governor's Israel policy remain unclear, but he has said plans to "do the opposite" of president Obama.
• Meanwhile, the Republican party's presidential hopeful is enjoying a week with his family at their $8m estate in New Hampshire. Each year the Romney clan gathers in Wolfeboro, NH to challenge each other in a variety of games – such as who can pound the most nails into a board in two minutes and who can hang from a pole the longest – the family wear coordinated outfits and everybody chips in by picking a daily chore from the "chore wheel".• Meanwhile, the Republican party's presidential hopeful is enjoying a week with his family at their $8m estate in New Hampshire. Each year the Romney clan gathers in Wolfeboro, NH to challenge each other in a variety of games – such as who can pound the most nails into a board in two minutes and who can hang from a pole the longest – the family wear coordinated outfits and everybody chips in by picking a daily chore from the "chore wheel".