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Police and crime commissioners: a leap in the dark for law and order Police and crime commissioners: a leap in the dark for law and order
(about 3 hours later)
Barely 11 weeks before voters from Cornwall to Cumbria are due to elect their first police and crime commissioners, Trish Branson is an unusually well-informed citizen. Most mid-week passersby in Leicester's busy city centre only offer a puzzled frown when asked what they know about the government's policing plan. But Branson knows enough to be concerned about it. Barely 10 weeks before voters from Cornwall to Cumbria are due to elect their first police and crime commissioners, Trish Branson is an unusually well-informed citizen. Most midweek passersby in Leicester's busy city centre can only offer a puzzled frown when asked what they know about the government's policing plan. But Branson knows enough to be concerned about it.
"I've heard that several candidates have had to step down because of minor criminal convictions when they were teenagers," says the adult social care adviser. "I'm also wary because we seem to be going to get people with no background in the police who see things from a business point of view. We need a balance between business efficiency and meeting the needs of the voters.""I've heard that several candidates have had to step down because of minor criminal convictions when they were teenagers," says the adult social care adviser. "I'm also wary because we seem to be going to get people with no background in the police who see things from a business point of view. We need a balance between business efficiency and meeting the needs of the voters."
That fear may be misplaced, along with predictions that political extremists or law-and-order populists would rush to fill the 41 new posts across England and Wales: there is little evidence of the BNP or wannabe Clint Eastwoods so far, though there are colonels aplenty and at least one former SAS man. That fear may be misplaced, along with predictions that political extremists or law-and-order populists would rush to fill the 41 new posts across England and Wales: an English Defence League (EDL) candidate is standing in Bedfordshire, but there is little evidence of the EDL, British National Party or wannabe Clint Eastwoods making much impact so far, though there are colonels and ex-police superintendents aplenty, an air marshal and at least one ex-SAS man.
Ministers deplore what they dismiss as "anti-democratic pessimism" about their experiment. Critics, who include the Electoral Commission, counter that the government has only itself to blame for negative publicity when it floats an important initiative, but does so hastily and on the cheap. Ministers deplore what they dismiss as "anti-democratic pessimism" about their experiment. Critics, who include the Electoral Reform Society (ERS), say the government has only itself to blame for negative publicity when it floats an important initiative, but does so hastily and on the cheap. Even the minister driving the policy quit this week.
The predictable result is that in Leicestershire – as elsewhere – the most that voters seem to have registered is a string of complaints about silly rules (the ban on magistrates standing was reversed this month, but not the ban on juvenile convictions) and the lack of funding for candidates, even for the traditional free mailshot to every voter. The predictable result is that in Leicestershire – as elsewhere – the most that voters seem to have registered is a string of complaints about hastily-drafted rules. The ban on magistrates standing was reversed last month, but not the ban on youthful convictions. Last week veteran councillor Mike Quigley, 65, stood down as Tory choice in Nottinghamshire over a drink-related offence committed on his 21st birthday. In Derby Labour's candidate, Alan Charles, was first told he was debarred and then reinstated – over a conditional discharge when he was 14.
It will further reduce turnout from what even the usually bullish Electoral Reform Society predicts may be only 18.5% – half the modest level of local elections, which are held in May, not in autumn damp and dark. "No one has a clue how these elections will work out," warns Sam Chapman, a Lancashire councillor and former police officer who reports on all 41 campaigns on his invaluable TopoftheCops website. The lack of state funding available for candidates, even for the traditional free mailshot to every voter, may add to such confusion. Even the usually bullish Electoral Reform Society predicts turnout may be only 18.5%, half the modest level for local elections each May, not in autumn damp and dark.
Despite the police minister Nick Herbert's airy assurances that the internet, local and social media will fill the gap, all candidates seem agreed that it is going to be a struggle using hustings and radio phone-ins. "No one has a clue how these elections will work out," warns Sam Chapman, a Lancashire councillor and ex-police officer who reports on all 41 campaigns on his invaluable TopoftheCops website.
Leicestershire police authority, which includes the micro-county of Rutland, is one of the smaller areas to vote on 15 November, and has only 2,000 officers. So far the contest here is no more or less typical than elsewhere except that the Conservative flag-bearer, Sir Clive Loader, is a former Harrier combat pilot, later an air chief marshal of the RAF, and is the most senior military candidate. He happens to live locally in Wing. The winner of a three-man shortlist, Loader, 58, currently faces a Labour city councillor, Sarah Russell, 32, and Suleman Nagdi, 55, an independent. Others could still stand. Despite airy assurances from Nick Herbert, who resigned as police minister for unrelated reasons in this week's reshuffle, that the internet, local and social media will fill the gap, all candidates seem agreed it is going to be a struggle relying on hustings and radio phone-ins.
A soft-spoken businessman and community activist as well as a spokesman for the city's large Muslim population, Nagdi's extensive contacts reach into Whitehall and the police training college at Bramshill, Hampshire. Once a teenage refugee from east Africa, he is now a deputy lord lieutenant of Leicestershire, with two sons in the police. Leicestershire, which includes the micro-county of Rutland, is one of the smaller police authority areas to vote on 15 November, and has only 2,000 officers.
Nagdi is respected, and Russell is a popular deputy mayor, but Loader is the man that reporters spot popping into police headquarters to talk policy. Though the rural "doughnut" around Labour Leicester is pretty Tory (seven of the area's 10 MPs) he thinks the result could be close. So far the contest here is no more or less typical than elsewhere except that the Tory flag-bearer, Sir Clive Loader, is an ex-Harrier combat pilot, later an air chief marshal of the RAF, the most senior military candidate standing. He happens to live locally in Wing. The winner of a three-man shortlist, Loader, 58, currently faces a Labour city councillor, Sarah Russell, 32, and Suleman Nagdi, 55, an independent. Others may still stand.
The government's theory behind bringing in directly elected commissioners was that a suitable supply of public-spirited, independent-minded candidates would materialise, willing to risk losing their £5,000 deposit (the threshold to save it is a 5% vote), raise their own campaign funds and take the flak for four years if elected to the £65,000-£100,000 jobs. A soft-spoken businessman and community activist as well as a spokesman for the city's large Muslim population, Nagdi's extensive contacts reach into Whitehall and the police training college at Bramshill, Hampshire. A former teenage refugee from east Africa, he is now a deputy lord lieutenant of Leicestershire, with two sons in the police. Nagdi is respected, Russell is a popular deputy mayor, but Loader is the man that reporters spot popping into police HQ to talk policy. Though the rural "doughnut" around Labour Leicester is pretty Tory (seven of the area's 10 MPs) he insists the result could be close.
The post is not just about setting police budgets and priorities, sacking the chief constable if necessary. They are not just police commissioners: they are police and crime commissioners (PCCs). As such, they will be "public safety mayors", using their personal mandate to galvanise councils and other local partners, driving improvements in the whole criminal justice system. That includes sluggish courts, child protection, victim support and problem-family management – as well as replacing shadowy police authorities in holding their force to account. The government's theory for bringing in directly elected commissioners was that a suitable supply of public-spirited, independent-minded candidates would materialise, willing to risk losing their £5,000 deposit (the threshold to save it is a 5% vote), raise their own campaign funds and take the flak for four years if elected to the £65,000-£100,000 jobs.
In the language of the "new localism", that means refocusing away from Home Office or party priorities towards voter concerns. It is the long-term crime-reducing side of the brief that most exercises thoughtful candidates in Leicester and elsewhere, aware that some voters will prefer headline-grabbing, ineffective gimmicks to patient slogging. The new officers are not just about setting police budgets and priorities, sacking the chief constable if necessary. They will be police and crime commissioners (PCCs). As such, they will be "public safety mayors", galvanising councils and other local partners, driving improvements in the whole criminal justice system. That includes sluggish courts, child protection, victim support and problem family management – as well as replacing shadowy police authorities in holding their force to account.
In the language of the "new localism" that means refocusing away from Home Office or party priorities towards voter concerns. It is the long-term crime-reducing side of the brief that most exercises thoughtful candidates in Leicester and elsewhere, aware that some voters will prefer headline-grabbing gimmicks to patient slog.
"The voters' priority in Leicester and Leicestershire is neighbourhood policing and how to keep it in the face of cuts," says Russell, the Labour candidate."The voters' priority in Leicester and Leicestershire is neighbourhood policing and how to keep it in the face of cuts," says Russell, the Labour candidate.
When Labour ministers flirted with the idea of electing PCCs to make the police more responsive to voters' priorities for crime and justice, the police led the charge against the idea. Ministers then backed off. But David Cameron and Theresa May were not to be deterred and have pressed ahead despite flagging coalition poll ratings and unpopular cuts in police budgets that could play badly for them in November. When Labour ministers flirted with the idea of electing PCCs, to make the police more responsive to voters' priorities for crime and justice, the police led the charge against the idea. Ministers then backed off. But David Cameron and Theresa May were not to be deterred and have pressed ahead despite flagging coalition poll ratings and unpopular cuts in police budgets that could play badly for them in November.
After ministers gently panicked last winter, discreet arm-twisting produced candidates, not all of whom were (or are) Tory party members – Loader among them. A novice politician, he tells audiences: "I am not a party stooge, I believe in local accountability." Rival party moods feel different. Labour opposed the Tories' PCC legislation, but knows it must field candidates – unlike the cash-strapped Lib Dems, who have decided not to organise nationally (likewise the Greens and Plaid Cymru). But the Lib Dems' leader, Nick Clegg (who had these elections delayed from May), will not stop local associations getting involved – or backing independents.
In Sussex, explains the Conservative MP for Worthing West, Peter Bottomley, there were half a dozen well-qualified party aspirants. The good-natured contest was unexpectedly won by a county councillor and businesswoman, Katy Bourne, who will fight Labour's choice, the Hastings councillor Godfrey Daniels, and at least one independent in Ian Chisnall. He is seen by some as the "churches candidate", a man with a network of canvassers to rival the main political parties, which have inevitably filled the PCC vacuum despite neither side wanting to "politicise the police". Some will, including Avon and Somerset, where Lib Dems reckon their councillor Peter Levy has a chance in a supplementary voting system. Will coalition loyalty deliver second preference votes – unless Ukip stands as it plans to in most contests? Tactical voting could be important. In Birmingham a Lib Dem councillor, Ayoub Khan, is eyeing the post, one of the few ethnic minority candidates in mainstream contention.
The current chair of Sussex's police authority, Steven Waight, did not even make the shortlist, which, like many others, featured former police officers and soldiers, councillors and (fewer than expected) business executives. Next door in Hampshire, the former Northern Ireland security minister, Colonel Sir Michael Mates, also beat off strong competition for the Tory nomination, despite being a youthful 78. "Experience matters," explain his admirers. Further west in Devon and Cornwall, a former naval commodore, Tony Hogg, is the Tories' choice. Air Commodore John Pye ("people call me JP") won a Tory postal ballot in Cambridgeshire. Ahead in opinion polls, Ed Miliband should be optimistic. But Labour looks at sprawling county-based policy authority constituencies and knows the formula favours the Conservatives, the opposite of the rural/suburban "wasted votes" complaint at general elections. Despite Tony Blair's best efforts, law and order remains a Tory cultural issue that excites their activist base – and cash – more than Labour's. Who better to lead the charge against police budget cuts, so the shires argument runs, than a retired colonel or a lantern-jawed air marshal who once led the RAF's 31,000 personnel and handled a budget of £2.5bn?
Rival party moods feel different. Labour opposed the Tories' PCC legislation, but knows it must field candidates – unlike the cash-strapped Lib Dems, who have decided not to organise nationally (likewise the Greens and Plaid Cymru). However, Nick Clegg (who had the elections delayed from May) will not stop local associations getting involved – or backing independents. Some will, including Avon and Somerset, where Lib Dems think their councillor Peter Levy has a chance in a supplementary voting system. Will coalition loyalty deliver second preference votes – unless Ukip stands? Tactical voting could be important. In Birmingham, a Lib Dem councillor, Ayoub Khan, is eyeing the post, one of the few ethnic minority candidates in mainstream contention. These are unprecedented elections for unusual jobs in untested constituencies, a contest with plenty of theories and irrelevant polling data but no satnav. Turnout will be crucial and good independent candidates know it will be tough to generate voter awareness without a familiar party wrapper – unless they are already high-profile local crime-fighters or celebs. In such large constituencies merely appealing to the anti-politics mood of voters will probably not be enough to win.
Ahead in the opinion polls, Ed Miliband should be optimistic. But Labour looks at sprawling county-based police authority constituencies and knows the formula favours the Conservatives, the opposite of the suburban "wasted votes" complaint at general elections. Despite Tony Blair's best efforts, law and order also remains a Tory cultural issue that excites their activist base – and cash – more than Labour's. Who better to lead the charge against police budget cuts, so the argument in the shires runs, than a retired colonel or a lantern-jawed air marshal who once led the RAF's 31,000 personnel and handled a budget of £2.5bn? So, despite its hard-done-by moans and earlier selection of candidates (all done by mid-June), Labour can hope to win a minority of the 41 posts, mostly in the big metropolitan forces (London has no election because as an elected mayor, Boris Johnson is already a de facto PCC), including Manchester, where the sitting MP, Tony Lloyd, got a clear run at the party's nomination. Eyebrows were raised at suspected deals over the Manchester seat Lloyd will vacate. He is one of seven Labour MPs and MEPs, past and present, in contention.
These are unprecedented elections for unusual jobs in untested constituencies, a contest with plenty of theories and irrelevant polling data but no satnav. Turnout will be crucial and good independent candidates know it will be tough to generate voter awareness without a familiar party wrapper – unless they are already high-profile local crime-fighters or celebs. In such large constituencies, the anti-politics mood of voters will probably not be enough to win. In Hampshire a row is bubbling over the selection of retired Tory MP, Michael Mates. A spritely ex-colonel and security minister, Mates is now 78 and unrepentant over his high-profile support for Asil Nadir, the jailed Polly Peck fraudster.
So, despite its hard-done-by moans and earlier selection of candidates (all done by mid-June), Labour can hope to win a minority of the 41 PCC posts, mostly in the big metropolitan forces (London has no election because as an elected mayor, Boris Johnson is already a de facto PCC), including Manchester, where Tony Lloyd MP got a clear run at the party's nomination. Eyebrows were raised at suspected deals over the Manchester Central seat Lloyd will vacate. He is one of seven Labour MPs and MEPs, past and present, in contention. In the West Midlands the favourite to win is another Labour politician, the Wolverhampton councillor Bob Jones, who brought in his defeated rival, Yvonne Mosquito, as his prospective deputy. Jones deplores the "Americanisation" of UK policing, but that is another lurking misapprehension. There are dozens of models of US police accountability, none of them quite like Britain's new one. America's most famous reformist cop, Bill ("Broken Windows") Bratton, was appointed or elected in three different ways to run – not merely oversee – the New York, Los Angeles and Boston forces.
In the West Midlands, Labour's choice and favourite to win is another politician, the Wolverhampton councillor Bob Jones, who brought in his defeated rival, Yvonne Mosquito, as his prospective deputy. Jones deplores the "Americanisation" of UK policing, but that is another lurking misapprehension. There are dozens of models of US police accountability, none of them quite like Britain's new one. America's most famous reformist cop, Bill ("Broken Windows") Bratton was appointed or elected in three different ways to run – not merely oversee – the New York, Los Angeles and Boston forces. In South Wales – with its 1 million voters from Swansea to Cardiff and the Valleys – another MP, the former Welsh secretary and first minister, Alun Michael, won the Labour nomination, and his son, Tal, won the nomination in North Wales after resigning as the force's chief executive. His success is less certain than his father's.
In south Wales – with its 1 million voters from Swansea to Cardiff and the valleys – another MP, the former Welsh secretary and first minister, Alun Michael, won the Labour nomination, as did his son, Tal, in north Wales after first resigning as the force's chief executive. His success is less certain than his father's. Also doubtful is that of Hamish Sandison, the Labour barrister fighting Gwent. His independent rivals include one former police sergeant, Chris Wright, and Ian Johnston, ex-chief superintendent in the Gwent force, former head too of the Police Superintendents' Association – a copper's grandee. Also doubtful is that of Hamish Sandison, a Labour barrister fighting Gwent. His independent rivals include an ex-police sergeant, Chris Wright, and Ian Johnston, the Gwent force's own ex-chief superintendent.
As in mainstream politics, women make up barely 20% of declared candidates. On Merseyside, the Blairite Jane Kennedy, another former security minister in Belfast, beat a fellow ex-minister, the combative Peter Kilfoyle, and the police authority chair, Bill Weightman – to the Labour nomination. Voter hopes are high that the winner will stand up to what is widely seen there as a tradition of arrogant and heavy-handed policing. As in mainstream politics, women make up barely 20% of declared candidates. On Merseyside the Blairite Jane Kennedy, a former security minister in Belfast, beat a fellow ex-minister, the combative Peter Kilfoyle, and the police authority chair, Bill Weightman, to the Labour nomination. Voter hopes are high that the winner will stand up to what is widely seen there as a tradition of arrogant and heavy-handed policing.
The former solicitor general Vera Baird QC is Labour's candidate in Northumbria, frightening off some less-qualified aspirants. The veteran Calder Valley councillor Geraldine Carter won the Tory nomination in West Yorkshire. But in Kent, the Tory ex-Ukip activist Craig Macklinay beat Jan Berry, former head of the Police Federation – one of several aspiring PCCs who faltered despite government favour. Blair Gibbs, a champion of PCC elections at the Tory thinktank Policy Exchange, admits: "I would like to have seen better-qualified candidates but I understand why we have not got them this time." Most famous of all among the Westminster and Strasbourg retreads seeking election is Lord Prescott, 74, but still restless for elective action. The former MP for Hull East beat a Humberside local police chief, Keith Hunter, by only 552 votes to 458 in the party ballot and made himself a tempting target in the process. Ukip's local MEP, Geoffrey Bloom, is one of those trying to topple him one last time: a contest to watch.
Most famous of all among the Westminster and Strasbourg retreads seeking election is Lord Prescott, 74 but still restless for elective action. Hull's former MP beat a Humberside local police chief, Keith Hunter, by only 552 votes to 458 in the party ballot and made himself a tempting target in the process. Ukip's local MEP, Geoffrey Bloom, is one of those trying to topple him one last time. In Northamptonshire Ukip is backing Jim MacArthur, whose CV includes a stint in the SAS – though it is Labour's nominee, the union official Lee Barron, who has boldly promised officers will spend 90% of their time on the street.
In Northamptonshire, Ukip is backing Jim MacArthur, whose CV includes a stint in the SAS – though it is Labour's nominee, the union official Lee Barron, who has boldly promised that the force will spend 90% of their time on the street. Sam Chapman (Tory runner-up to Tim Ashton in Lancashire) believes Ukip has "a very significant opportunity" on 15 November to expand its appeal beyond Euroscepticism. The party says it knows it and is weeding out sub-standard applicants that might embarrass it. Nominations formally open on 8 October and close on 19 October.
Sam Chapman (the Tory runner-up to Tim Ashton in Lancashire) believes that Ukip has "a very significant opportunity" on 15 November to expand its appeal beyond Euroscepticism and will have some explaining to do if it fails to grab it. The party says it will only run where it has a chance and a good candidate. Nominations formally open on 8 October and close on 19 October. Elected PCCs will take over from police authorities a week after polling day (transition teams are hard at work) and if the Home Office's imminent publicity campaign makes its intended impact, then the PCCs will soon feel the heat of public expectation. The job is comparable to being a minister of state in Whitehall, but far more exposed, says Alun Michael.
Elected PCCs will take over from police authorities a mere week after polling day (transition teams are hard at work) and if the Home Office's imminent publicity campaign makes its intended impact then PCCs will soon feel the heat of public expectation. The job is comparable to being a minister of state in Whitehall, but far more exposed, says Alun Michael. The history of devolving power from Whitehall is littered with fiasco and retreat, especially in England, where Labour's hopes for regional government were rejected in referendums, as were Tory plans last May for elected city mayors – except in Bristol, which will elect its mayor on 15 November too.
The history of devolving power from Whitehall is littered with fiasco and retreat – especially in England, where Labour's hopes for regional government were rejected in referendums, as were last May's Tory plans for elected city mayors (except in Bristol, which will elect its mayor on 15 November too). Elected PCCs have been imposed without any pilots, let alone referendums. Elected PCCs have been imposed without any pilots, let alone local referendums. It could be another flop – or an unexpected success. Most voters may be ignorant of the concept, but they know what they want. "More police on the streets would be nice," snaps one man in Leicester. "It was a big mistake closing our police station," says another outside Tesco in Oakham, the county town of Rutland. "My impression is that they're taking our police officers away and it's all being done now from far away in Leicester."
It could be another flop – or an unexpected success. Most voters may be ignorant of the concept but know what they want. "More police on the streets would be nice," snaps one man in Leicester city centre. "It was a big mistake closing our police station," says another outside Tesco in Oakham, the county town of Rutland. "My impression is that they're taking our police officers away and it's all being done now from far away in Leicester." Squaring the divergent circles of perception and reality against a background of cuts will be the task facing Leicestershire's new PCC and other lucky winners as winter draws in.
Squaring such divergent circles of perception will be the task of Leicestershire's new PCC and other lucky winners in November.