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| Police and crime commissioners: a leap in the dark for law and order | Police and crime commissioners: a leap in the dark for law and order |
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| Barely 10 weeks before voters from Cornwall to Cumbria are due to elect their first police and crime commissioners, Trish Branson is an unusually well-informed citizen. Most midweek passersby in Leicester's busy city centre can only offer a puzzled frown when asked what they know about the government's policing plan. But Branson knows enough to be concerned about it. | Barely 10 weeks before voters from Cornwall to Cumbria are due to elect their first police and crime commissioners, Trish Branson is an unusually well-informed citizen. Most midweek passersby in Leicester's busy city centre can only offer a puzzled frown when asked what they know about the government's policing plan. But Branson knows enough to be concerned about it. |
| "I've heard that several candidates have had to step down because of minor criminal convictions when they were teenagers," says the adult social care adviser. "I'm also wary because we seem to be going to get people with no background in the police who see things from a business point of view. We need a balance between business efficiency and meeting the needs of the voters." | "I've heard that several candidates have had to step down because of minor criminal convictions when they were teenagers," says the adult social care adviser. "I'm also wary because we seem to be going to get people with no background in the police who see things from a business point of view. We need a balance between business efficiency and meeting the needs of the voters." |
| That fear may be misplaced, along with predictions that political extremists or law-and-order populists would rush to fill the 41 new posts across England and Wales: an English Defence League (EDL) candidate is standing in Bedfordshire, but there is little evidence of the EDL, British National Party or wannabe Clint Eastwoods making much impact so far, though there are colonels and ex-police superintendents aplenty, an air marshal and at least one ex-SAS man. | That fear may be misplaced, along with predictions that political extremists or law-and-order populists would rush to fill the 41 new posts across England and Wales: an English Defence League (EDL) candidate is standing in Bedfordshire, but there is little evidence of the EDL, British National Party or wannabe Clint Eastwoods making much impact so far, though there are colonels and ex-police superintendents aplenty, an air marshal and at least one ex-SAS man. |
| Ministers deplore what they dismiss as "anti-democratic pessimism" about their experiment. Critics, who include the Electoral Reform Society (ERS), say the government has only itself to blame for negative publicity when it floats an important initiative, but does so hastily and on the cheap. Even the minister driving the policy quit this week. | Ministers deplore what they dismiss as "anti-democratic pessimism" about their experiment. Critics, who include the Electoral Reform Society (ERS), say the government has only itself to blame for negative publicity when it floats an important initiative, but does so hastily and on the cheap. Even the minister driving the policy quit this week. |
| The predictable result is that in Leicestershire – as elsewhere – the most that voters seem to have registered is a string of complaints about hastily-drafted rules. The ban on magistrates standing was reversed last month, but not the ban on youthful convictions. Last week veteran councillor Mike Quigley, 65, stood down as Tory choice in Nottinghamshire over a drink-related offence committed on his 21st birthday. In Derby Labour's candidate, Alan Charles, was first told he was debarred and then reinstated – over a conditional discharge when he was 14. | The predictable result is that in Leicestershire – as elsewhere – the most that voters seem to have registered is a string of complaints about hastily-drafted rules. The ban on magistrates standing was reversed last month, but not the ban on youthful convictions. Last week veteran councillor Mike Quigley, 65, stood down as Tory choice in Nottinghamshire over a drink-related offence committed on his 21st birthday. In Derby Labour's candidate, Alan Charles, was first told he was debarred and then reinstated – over a conditional discharge when he was 14. |
| The lack of state funding available for candidates, even for the traditional free mailshot to every voter, may add to such confusion. Even the usually bullish Electoral Reform Society predicts turnout may be only 18.5%, half the modest level for local elections each May, not in autumn damp and dark. | The lack of state funding available for candidates, even for the traditional free mailshot to every voter, may add to such confusion. Even the usually bullish Electoral Reform Society predicts turnout may be only 18.5%, half the modest level for local elections each May, not in autumn damp and dark. |
| "No one has a clue how these elections will work out," warns Sam Chapman, a Lancashire councillor and ex-police officer who reports on all 41 campaigns on his invaluable TopoftheCops website. | "No one has a clue how these elections will work out," warns Sam Chapman, a Lancashire councillor and ex-police officer who reports on all 41 campaigns on his invaluable TopoftheCops website. |
| Despite airy assurances from Nick Herbert, who resigned as police minister for unrelated reasons in this week's reshuffle, that the internet, local and social media will fill the gap, all candidates seem agreed it is going to be a struggle relying on hustings and radio phone-ins. | Despite airy assurances from Nick Herbert, who resigned as police minister for unrelated reasons in this week's reshuffle, that the internet, local and social media will fill the gap, all candidates seem agreed it is going to be a struggle relying on hustings and radio phone-ins. |
| Leicestershire, which includes the micro-county of Rutland, is one of the smaller police authority areas to vote on 15 November, and has only 2,000 officers. | Leicestershire, which includes the micro-county of Rutland, is one of the smaller police authority areas to vote on 15 November, and has only 2,000 officers. |
| So far the contest here is no more or less typical than elsewhere except that the Tory flag-bearer, Sir Clive Loader, is an ex-Harrier combat pilot, later an air chief marshal of the RAF, the most senior military candidate standing. He happens to live locally in Wing. The winner of a three-man shortlist, Loader, 58, currently faces a Labour city councillor, Sarah Russell, 32, and Suleman Nagdi, 55, an independent. Others may still stand. | So far the contest here is no more or less typical than elsewhere except that the Tory flag-bearer, Sir Clive Loader, is an ex-Harrier combat pilot, later an air chief marshal of the RAF, the most senior military candidate standing. He happens to live locally in Wing. The winner of a three-man shortlist, Loader, 58, currently faces a Labour city councillor, Sarah Russell, 32, and Suleman Nagdi, 55, an independent. Others may still stand. |
| A soft-spoken businessman and community activist as well as a spokesman for the city's large Muslim population, Nagdi's extensive contacts reach into Whitehall and the police training college at Bramshill, Hampshire. A former teenage refugee from east Africa, he is now a deputy lord lieutenant of Leicestershire, with two sons in the police. Nagdi is respected, Russell is a popular deputy mayor, but Loader is the man that reporters spot popping into police HQ to talk policy. Though the rural "doughnut" around Labour Leicester is pretty Tory (seven of the area's 10 MPs) he insists the result could be close. | A soft-spoken businessman and community activist as well as a spokesman for the city's large Muslim population, Nagdi's extensive contacts reach into Whitehall and the police training college at Bramshill, Hampshire. A former teenage refugee from east Africa, he is now a deputy lord lieutenant of Leicestershire, with two sons in the police. Nagdi is respected, Russell is a popular deputy mayor, but Loader is the man that reporters spot popping into police HQ to talk policy. Though the rural "doughnut" around Labour Leicester is pretty Tory (seven of the area's 10 MPs) he insists the result could be close. |
| The government's theory for bringing in directly elected commissioners was that a suitable supply of public-spirited, independent-minded candidates would materialise, willing to risk losing their £5,000 deposit (the threshold to save it is a 5% vote), raise their own campaign funds and take the flak for four years if elected to the £65,000-£100,000 jobs. | The government's theory for bringing in directly elected commissioners was that a suitable supply of public-spirited, independent-minded candidates would materialise, willing to risk losing their £5,000 deposit (the threshold to save it is a 5% vote), raise their own campaign funds and take the flak for four years if elected to the £65,000-£100,000 jobs. |
| The new officers are not just about setting police budgets and priorities, sacking the chief constable if necessary. They will be police and crime commissioners (PCCs). As such, they will be "public safety mayors", galvanising councils and other local partners, driving improvements in the whole criminal justice system. That includes sluggish courts, child protection, victim support and problem family management – as well as replacing shadowy police authorities in holding their force to account. | The new officers are not just about setting police budgets and priorities, sacking the chief constable if necessary. They will be police and crime commissioners (PCCs). As such, they will be "public safety mayors", galvanising councils and other local partners, driving improvements in the whole criminal justice system. That includes sluggish courts, child protection, victim support and problem family management – as well as replacing shadowy police authorities in holding their force to account. |
| In the language of the "new localism" that means refocusing away from Home Office or party priorities towards voter concerns. It is the long-term crime-reducing side of the brief that most exercises thoughtful candidates in Leicester and elsewhere, aware that some voters will prefer headline-grabbing gimmicks to patient slog. | In the language of the "new localism" that means refocusing away from Home Office or party priorities towards voter concerns. It is the long-term crime-reducing side of the brief that most exercises thoughtful candidates in Leicester and elsewhere, aware that some voters will prefer headline-grabbing gimmicks to patient slog. |
| "The voters' priority in Leicester and Leicestershire is neighbourhood policing and how to keep it in the face of cuts," says Russell, the Labour candidate. | "The voters' priority in Leicester and Leicestershire is neighbourhood policing and how to keep it in the face of cuts," says Russell, the Labour candidate. |
| When Labour ministers flirted with the idea of electing PCCs, to make the police more responsive to voters' priorities for crime and justice, the police led the charge against the idea. Ministers then backed off. But David Cameron and Theresa May were not to be deterred and have pressed ahead despite flagging coalition poll ratings and unpopular cuts in police budgets that could play badly for them in November. | When Labour ministers flirted with the idea of electing PCCs, to make the police more responsive to voters' priorities for crime and justice, the police led the charge against the idea. Ministers then backed off. But David Cameron and Theresa May were not to be deterred and have pressed ahead despite flagging coalition poll ratings and unpopular cuts in police budgets that could play badly for them in November. |
| Rival party moods feel different. Labour opposed the Tories' PCC legislation, but knows it must field candidates – unlike the cash-strapped Lib Dems, who have decided not to organise nationally (likewise the Greens and Plaid Cymru). But the Lib Dems' leader, Nick Clegg (who had these elections delayed from May), will not stop local associations getting involved – or backing independents. | Rival party moods feel different. Labour opposed the Tories' PCC legislation, but knows it must field candidates – unlike the cash-strapped Lib Dems, who have decided not to organise nationally (likewise the Greens and Plaid Cymru). But the Lib Dems' leader, Nick Clegg (who had these elections delayed from May), will not stop local associations getting involved – or backing independents. |
| Some will, including Avon and Somerset, where Lib Dems reckon their councillor Peter Levy has a chance in a supplementary voting system. Will coalition loyalty deliver second preference votes – unless Ukip stands as it plans to in most contests? Tactical voting could be important. In Birmingham a Lib Dem councillor, Ayoub Khan, is eyeing the post, one of the few ethnic minority candidates in mainstream contention. | Some will, including Avon and Somerset, where Lib Dems reckon their councillor Peter Levy has a chance in a supplementary voting system. Will coalition loyalty deliver second preference votes – unless Ukip stands as it plans to in most contests? Tactical voting could be important. In Birmingham a Lib Dem councillor, Ayoub Khan, is eyeing the post, one of the few ethnic minority candidates in mainstream contention. |
| Ahead in opinion polls, Ed Miliband should be optimistic. But Labour looks at sprawling county-based policy authority constituencies and knows the formula favours the Conservatives, the opposite of the rural/suburban "wasted votes" complaint at general elections. Despite Tony Blair's best efforts, law and order remains a Tory cultural issue that excites their activist base – and cash – more than Labour's. Who better to lead the charge against police budget cuts, so the shires argument runs, than a retired colonel or a lantern-jawed air marshal who once led the RAF's 31,000 personnel and handled a budget of £2.5bn? | Ahead in opinion polls, Ed Miliband should be optimistic. But Labour looks at sprawling county-based policy authority constituencies and knows the formula favours the Conservatives, the opposite of the rural/suburban "wasted votes" complaint at general elections. Despite Tony Blair's best efforts, law and order remains a Tory cultural issue that excites their activist base – and cash – more than Labour's. Who better to lead the charge against police budget cuts, so the shires argument runs, than a retired colonel or a lantern-jawed air marshal who once led the RAF's 31,000 personnel and handled a budget of £2.5bn? |
| These are unprecedented elections for unusual jobs in untested constituencies, a contest with plenty of theories and irrelevant polling data but no satnav. Turnout will be crucial and good independent candidates know it will be tough to generate voter awareness without a familiar party wrapper – unless they are already high-profile local crime-fighters or celebs. In such large constituencies merely appealing to the anti-politics mood of voters will probably not be enough to win. | These are unprecedented elections for unusual jobs in untested constituencies, a contest with plenty of theories and irrelevant polling data but no satnav. Turnout will be crucial and good independent candidates know it will be tough to generate voter awareness without a familiar party wrapper – unless they are already high-profile local crime-fighters or celebs. In such large constituencies merely appealing to the anti-politics mood of voters will probably not be enough to win. |
| So, despite its hard-done-by moans and earlier selection of candidates (all done by mid-June), Labour can hope to win a minority of the 41 posts, mostly in the big metropolitan forces (London has no election because as an elected mayor, Boris Johnson is already a de facto PCC), including Manchester, where the sitting MP, Tony Lloyd, got a clear run at the party's nomination. Eyebrows were raised at suspected deals over the Manchester seat Lloyd will vacate. He is one of seven Labour MPs and MEPs, past and present, in contention. | So, despite its hard-done-by moans and earlier selection of candidates (all done by mid-June), Labour can hope to win a minority of the 41 posts, mostly in the big metropolitan forces (London has no election because as an elected mayor, Boris Johnson is already a de facto PCC), including Manchester, where the sitting MP, Tony Lloyd, got a clear run at the party's nomination. Eyebrows were raised at suspected deals over the Manchester seat Lloyd will vacate. He is one of seven Labour MPs and MEPs, past and present, in contention. |
| In Hampshire a row is bubbling over the selection of retired Tory MP, Michael Mates. A spritely ex-colonel and security minister, Mates is now 78 and unrepentant over his high-profile support for Asil Nadir, the jailed Polly Peck fraudster. | In Hampshire a row is bubbling over the selection of retired Tory MP, Michael Mates. A spritely ex-colonel and security minister, Mates is now 78 and unrepentant over his high-profile support for Asil Nadir, the jailed Polly Peck fraudster. |
| In the West Midlands the favourite to win is another Labour politician, the Wolverhampton councillor Bob Jones, who brought in his defeated rival, Yvonne Mosquito, as his prospective deputy. Jones deplores the "Americanisation" of UK policing, but that is another lurking misapprehension. There are dozens of models of US police accountability, none of them quite like Britain's new one. America's most famous reformist cop, Bill ("Broken Windows") Bratton, was appointed or elected in three different ways to run – not merely oversee – the New York, Los Angeles and Boston forces. | In the West Midlands the favourite to win is another Labour politician, the Wolverhampton councillor Bob Jones, who brought in his defeated rival, Yvonne Mosquito, as his prospective deputy. Jones deplores the "Americanisation" of UK policing, but that is another lurking misapprehension. There are dozens of models of US police accountability, none of them quite like Britain's new one. America's most famous reformist cop, Bill ("Broken Windows") Bratton, was appointed or elected in three different ways to run – not merely oversee – the New York, Los Angeles and Boston forces. |
| In South Wales – with its 1 million voters from Swansea to Cardiff and the Valleys – another MP, the former Welsh secretary and first minister, Alun Michael, won the Labour nomination, and his son, Tal, won the nomination in North Wales after resigning as the force's chief executive. His success is less certain than his father's. | In South Wales – with its 1 million voters from Swansea to Cardiff and the Valleys – another MP, the former Welsh secretary and first minister, Alun Michael, won the Labour nomination, and his son, Tal, won the nomination in North Wales after resigning as the force's chief executive. His success is less certain than his father's. |
| Also doubtful is that of Hamish Sandison, a Labour barrister fighting Gwent. His independent rivals include an ex-police sergeant, Chris Wright, and Ian Johnston, the Gwent force's own ex-chief superintendent. | Also doubtful is that of Hamish Sandison, a Labour barrister fighting Gwent. His independent rivals include an ex-police sergeant, Chris Wright, and Ian Johnston, the Gwent force's own ex-chief superintendent. |
| As in mainstream politics, women make up barely 20% of declared candidates. On Merseyside the Blairite Jane Kennedy, a former security minister in Belfast, beat a fellow ex-minister, the combative Peter Kilfoyle, and the police authority chair, Bill Weightman, to the Labour nomination. Voter hopes are high that the winner will stand up to what is widely seen there as a tradition of arrogant and heavy-handed policing. | As in mainstream politics, women make up barely 20% of declared candidates. On Merseyside the Blairite Jane Kennedy, a former security minister in Belfast, beat a fellow ex-minister, the combative Peter Kilfoyle, and the police authority chair, Bill Weightman, to the Labour nomination. Voter hopes are high that the winner will stand up to what is widely seen there as a tradition of arrogant and heavy-handed policing. |
| Most famous of all among the Westminster and Strasbourg retreads seeking election is Lord Prescott, 74, but still restless for elective action. The former MP for Hull East beat a Humberside local police chief, Keith Hunter, by only 552 votes to 458 in the party ballot and made himself a tempting target in the process. Ukip's local MEP, Geoffrey Bloom, is one of those trying to topple him one last time: a contest to watch. | Most famous of all among the Westminster and Strasbourg retreads seeking election is Lord Prescott, 74, but still restless for elective action. The former MP for Hull East beat a Humberside local police chief, Keith Hunter, by only 552 votes to 458 in the party ballot and made himself a tempting target in the process. Ukip's local MEP, Geoffrey Bloom, is one of those trying to topple him one last time: a contest to watch. |
| In Northamptonshire Ukip is backing Jim MacArthur, whose CV includes a stint in the SAS – though it is Labour's nominee, the union official Lee Barron, who has boldly promised officers will spend 90% of their time on the street. | In Northamptonshire Ukip is backing Jim MacArthur, whose CV includes a stint in the SAS – though it is Labour's nominee, the union official Lee Barron, who has boldly promised officers will spend 90% of their time on the street. |
| Sam Chapman (Tory runner-up to Tim Ashton in Lancashire) believes Ukip has "a very significant opportunity" on 15 November to expand its appeal beyond Euroscepticism. The party says it knows it and is weeding out sub-standard applicants that might embarrass it. Nominations formally open on 8 October and close on 19 October. | Sam Chapman (Tory runner-up to Tim Ashton in Lancashire) believes Ukip has "a very significant opportunity" on 15 November to expand its appeal beyond Euroscepticism. The party says it knows it and is weeding out sub-standard applicants that might embarrass it. Nominations formally open on 8 October and close on 19 October. |
| Elected PCCs will take over from police authorities a week after polling day (transition teams are hard at work) and if the Home Office's imminent publicity campaign makes its intended impact, then the PCCs will soon feel the heat of public expectation. The job is comparable to being a minister of state in Whitehall, but far more exposed, says Alun Michael. | Elected PCCs will take over from police authorities a week after polling day (transition teams are hard at work) and if the Home Office's imminent publicity campaign makes its intended impact, then the PCCs will soon feel the heat of public expectation. The job is comparable to being a minister of state in Whitehall, but far more exposed, says Alun Michael. |
| The history of devolving power from Whitehall is littered with fiasco and retreat, especially in England, where Labour's hopes for regional government were rejected in referendums, as were Tory plans last May for elected city mayors – except in Bristol, which will elect its mayor on 15 November too. | The history of devolving power from Whitehall is littered with fiasco and retreat, especially in England, where Labour's hopes for regional government were rejected in referendums, as were Tory plans last May for elected city mayors – except in Bristol, which will elect its mayor on 15 November too. |
| Elected PCCs have been imposed without any pilots, let alone local referendums. It could be another flop – or an unexpected success. Most voters may be ignorant of the concept, but they know what they want. "More police on the streets would be nice," snaps one man in Leicester. "It was a big mistake closing our police station," says another outside Tesco in Oakham, the county town of Rutland. "My impression is that they're taking our police officers away and it's all being done now from far away in Leicester." | Elected PCCs have been imposed without any pilots, let alone local referendums. It could be another flop – or an unexpected success. Most voters may be ignorant of the concept, but they know what they want. "More police on the streets would be nice," snaps one man in Leicester. "It was a big mistake closing our police station," says another outside Tesco in Oakham, the county town of Rutland. "My impression is that they're taking our police officers away and it's all being done now from far away in Leicester." |
| Squaring the divergent circles of perception and reality against a background of cuts will be the task facing Leicestershire's new PCC and other lucky winners as winter draws in. | Squaring the divergent circles of perception and reality against a background of cuts will be the task facing Leicestershire's new PCC and other lucky winners as winter draws in. |
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