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Binyamin Netanyahu demands 'red line' to stop Iran nuclear programme Binyamin Netanyahu demands 'red line' to stop Iran nuclear programme
(about 5 hours later)
Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, called on the international community on Thursday night to set a "clear, red line" to stop the progress of the Iranian nuclear programme, which he claimed was little more than a year away from making its first bomb. Israel's prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has called on the international community to set a "clear, red line" to stop Iran making a nuclear weapon, a line he claimed would be reached as early as next spring.
In a demonstration of his fears, he presented the UN general assembly in New York with a crude diagram of a bomb with a burning fuse and used a red marker pen to indicate where he thought the line should be drawn. To illustrate those claims, Netanyahu presented the UN general assembly in New York with a diagram of a cartoon bomb, complete with a burning fuse, and used a red felt pen to mark a line near the top of the bomb beyond which he said Iran should not be allowed to pass. That line, representing 90% of the way to making a warhead, would be reached "by next spring, at most by next summer".
Netanyahu argued that the Iranians, by producing tonnes of low-enriched uranium and beginning to make medium-enriched uranium, were well over 70% of the way to producing a nuclear weapon. By as early as next summer, he said, they would be 90% of the way to that goal. He drew his red line along that 90% line. Netanyahu added: "From there, it's only a few months, possibly a few weeks, before they get enough enriched uranium for the first bomb." Consequently, the international community had to make it clear Iran would not be allowed to cross that critical threshold.
"I believe that, faced with a clear red line, Iran will back down," the Israeli leader said, arguing that would give more time for sanctions and diplomacy to work towards the dismantling of the Iranian programme. "Now each day that point is getting closer. And that's why I speak today with such a sense of urgency, and that's why everyone should have a sense of urgency," he said. "I believe that, faced with a clear red line, Iran will back down," the Israeli leader added, arguing that would give more time for sanctions and diplomacy to work towards the dismantling of the Iranian programme.
Netanyahu has attempted, without success, to persuade the Obama administration to agree to such red lines. US officials have rejected his proposal, arguing that such a declaration would represent an invitation to Iran to develop its programme up to that line and would limit the president's choices at a critical moment. Iran denies that its programme is intended for making weapons. Iran insists that its nuclear programme is for entirely peaceful purposes, and US and other western intelligence agencies believe that the Tehran regime has not made the political decision to make a warhead. They estimate that the country's clerical leadership would like to have the option to make nuclear weapons, but have yet to take that option.
There has been considerable speculation in the past few months that Israel might take unilateral military action aimed at setting back the Iranian programme. That threat appears to have receded with Netanyahu's presentation, which put the "red line" back into next year. Obama has said that he would not allow Iran to build nuclear weapons and US intelligence has found no evidence that Iran has made a political decision to build such weapons. European officials were sceptical about Netanyahu's argument, comparing it to the infamous illustrated presentation about Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction made in 2003 by the then US secretary of state, Colin Powell. "It was like Powell and WMD, but much lower quality graphics," one European diplomat said.
Netanyahu sought to counter US arguments that the world would have notice of any Iranian attempt to put a warhead together. He said a nuclear detonator could be made in a workshop the size of a classroom, and a warhead could be assembled in a small space that would also be very hard to find in a country the size of a large part of Europe. He said that although he had great faith in his intelligence agencies, the security of the planet could not be made dependent on them finding such a facility in such a vast area. Netanyahu has tried for months, without success, to persuade the Obama administration to set red lines for Iran, but his speech to the UN marked the first time he had set out specific dates by which he expected those lines to be reached. Despite the urgent tone of the address, and after months of speculation that Israel was about to take imminent military action against Iran, the speech appeared to signal that it would wait until next year.
Therefore, he argued, the red line had to be drawn on the Iranian uranium enrichment programme, which requires large plants. "Iranian plants are visible and they are still vulnerable," Netanyahu said. Obama administration officials are also likely to be relieved that Netanyahu did not publicly rebuke the president for his refusal to agree to the Israeli red lines. The Israeli prime minister even thanked Obama and the international community for imposing "some of the strongest sanctions to date" on Iran. The comparatively reconciliatory language, after months of sparring, may signal that Netanyahu is preparing for the prospect of a second Obama term.
He rejected suggestions that a nuclear-armed Iran could be contained, claiming that there was no real difference between contemplating a nuclear-armed Iran and a nuclear-armed al-Qaida, as both were dangerous terrorists. Netanyahu devoted almost all his UN address to the Iranian nuclear threat, and only a couple of minutes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some European and US officials have conceded that by his increasingly dire warnings about the Iranian programme, the Israeli leader may not have persuaded the US to take military action but he has succeeded in marginalising the plight of the Palestinians.
Netanyahu devoted almost all his UN address to the Iranian nuclear threat, and only a couple of minutes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Some European and US officials have conceded that by his increasingly dire warnings about the Iranian programme, the Israeli leader may not have persuaded the US to take military action but he has succeeded to marginalising the plight of the Palestinians, significantly reducing the international pressure on him to stop the spread of Jewish settlements across occupied Palestinian territory. Barely an hour before Netanyahu took the lectern, the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, had railed from the same spot against what he portrayed as Israel's impunity for its occupation and settlement building on Palestinian territory.
Barely an hour before Netanyahu took the lectern, the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas, addressed the general assembly and accused the Israeli government of carrying out a campaign of "ethnic cleansing" by the demolition of Palestinian homes in East Jerusalem. "Israel continues to be permitted to evade accountability and punishment," Abbas said. "This, in fact, represents a licence for the occupation to continue its policy of dispossession and ethnic cleansing and encourages it to entrench its system of apartheid against the Palestinian people."
However, in a reflection of Palestinian weakness in the current international climate, he put off a call for Palestine to be granted observer status at the UN, saying only that consultations were under way to that end. Palestinian officials said that a vote might take place in November. However, in a reflection of his lack of leverage in the international community in the current climate, he stopped short of seeking immediate observer status at the UN for a Palestinian state, saying only that he was in "intensive consultations" with regional organisations and member states to that end.
Facing the diplomats at the UN general assembly, he asked that if Iran succeeded in making a nuclear weapon, "who among of you would feel safe in the Middle East? Who would be safe in Europe? Who'd be safe in America? Who'd be safe everywhere?" The Israeli-Palestinian impasse has taken centre stage at the UN for decades but this year, given the febrile atmosphere around Iran created by Netanyahu and the Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, it was eclipsed by fears of a new conflict in the region.
Western governments have significantly increased sanctions on Iran this year because of its continued refusal to heed security council calls to suspend uranium enrichment, and because of its failure so far to explain evidence presented by inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of past experimentation with nuclear weapons design. The Israel presentation provided a window into the government's thinking on the Iranian programme.
Netanyahu argued that the sanctions, which include a EU embargo on purchasing Iranian oil, had badly damaged the Iranian economy but had not slowed the progress of the nuclear programme. Therefore, he said, the setting of red lines was the last peaceful means of stopping it. Netanyahu argued that it had completed the first phase in the bid to build a bomb, involving the production of several tons of low-enriched uranium. On his bomb diagram, that took Iran 70% of the way towards a nuclear weapon.
"The hour is getting late, very late," he said. "The Iranian nuclear calendar doesn't take time out for anyone or anything. Its not only my right to speak out, it's my duty to speak out." Phase two involved the production of what Netanyahu termed "medium-enriched" uranium, with a 20% level of purity. This is ostensibly for a medical research reactor, but it is a source of proliferation concern because it could relatively easily be further enriched to make weapons-grade fissile material. Iran has made about 190 kg of this 20% uranium, which would be just about enough if further enriched to make a single warhead. However, it has converted about a third of that stockpile into reactor fuel which is less of a proliferation risk.
He argued that when Iran had completed this phase, it would be 90% of the way to a nuclear bomb, and this is where the red line should be drawn, but he did not make clear how much 20% enriched uranium that would entail.
The final phase of the programme on his bomb chart would involve enrichment of the stockpile to weapons-grade uranium, over 90% purity, and that would take months or even weeks, he said.
Western diplomats and nuclear experts pointed out that the Iranian uranium stockpile is monitored and under seal by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which would sound the alarm if Iran tried to "break out" and make weapons-grade uranium.
Mehr Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli commentator said: "The only way Iran could hide such a move would be by kicking out the IAEA inspectors.
"This would alert the entire international community. Israel alongside everyone else would find out."
As President Obama has already said that when it comes to a nuclear-armed Iran, "containment is not an option, Javedanfar argued: "Netanyahu's red line is not so different to that of the US."